Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization Middle Tennessee Connected 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan Respectfully adopted on February 17, 2016 for the citizens of Davidson, Maury, Robertson, Rutherford, Sumner, Williamson, and Wilson Counties by the: Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization 800 Second Avenue South Nashville, Tennessee 37201 Phone: (615) 862 7204 Fax: (615) 862 7209 www.nashvillempo.org
Funding for this document was provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration and Federal Transit Administration, the Tennessee Department of Transportation, and local government members of the Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO). Non-Discrimination Policy Equal Employment Opportunity Employer The Nashville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization does not discriminate on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender, gender identity, sexual orientation, age, religion, creed or disability in admission to, access to, or operations of its programs, services, or activities. Discrimination against any person in recruitment, examination, appointment, training, promotion, retention, discipline or any other employment practices because of non merit factors shall be prohibited. Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) and Title VI inquiries should be forwarded to: Michelle Lacewell, Nashville Area MPO, 800 Second Avenue South, Nashville, TN 37201, (615) 880 2152, Lacewell@NashvilleMPO.org. Inside Cover Photo: Tennessee Bicentennial Mall, Max Baker, Nashville Area MPO
Table of Contents Table of Figures 1.0 Introduction & Plan Highlights 1.1 A Unified Plan for the Next Five to 25 Years... 1 1 1.2 About the Nashville Area MPO... 1 2 1.3 Federal Requirements and State Coordination... 1 3 1.4 Public Involvement Opportunities... 1 5 2.0 Regional Issues & Thinking 2.1 Challenges & Opportunities... 2 1 2.2 Regional Planning Partnerships... 2 4 2.3 Related Planning Efforts... 2 6 2.4 Public Attitudes... 2 9 3.0 Trends and Forecasts 3.1 Metropolitan Planning Area... 3 1 3.2 Population & Employment... 3 3 3.3 Land Use and Real Estate Development... 3 5 3.4 Freight Commodities... 3 10 4.0 Transportation Infrastructure 4.1 Major Roadways... 4 1 4.2 Bridges & Overpasses... 4 6 4.3 Interchanges & Intersections... 4 7 4.4 Public Transportation Services... 4 8 4.5 Bicycle & Pedestrian Facilities... 4 10 4.6 Freight & Logistics Infrastructure... 4 12 5.0 Conditions and Performance 5.1 Performance Measures and Peer Comparisons... 5 1 5.2 Commuting Patterns & Travel Behaviors... 5 5 5.3 Highway Performance... 5 6 5.4 Bicycle & Pedestrian Levels of Service... 5 11 5.5 Public Transit Performance... 5 15 5.6 Roadway Safety and Crash Rates... 5 17 5.7 Freight & Goods Movement... 5 21 5.8 System Preservation and Maintenance... 5 23 6.0 Vision, Goals, and Strategies 6.1 Regional Goals & Objectives... 6 1 6.2 Alignment with National Goals and Emphasis Areas... 6 2 6.3 Long Range Vision... 6 4 6.4 Core Strategies... 6 10
7.0 Tools and Options 7.1 Public Transit Options... 7 1 7.2 Complete Streets... 7 12 7.3 Access Management & Network Connectivity... 7 15 7.4 Managed Lanes... 7 19 7.5 Technology and Traffic Operations... 7 22 7.6 Planning for Safety and Security... 7 23 8.0 Planned Investments & Funding 8.1 Federal Funding Programs and Fiscal Outlook... 8 1 8.2 State and Local Funding Sources... 8 4 8.3 Revenue Projections... 8 6 8.4 Prioritizing Needs for Fiscal Constraint... 8 7 8.5 Scheduled Investments... 8 8 8.6 Summary of Revenue & Expenditures... 8 10 8.7 Ongoing Maintenance Costs... 8 13 8.8 Additional Funding Options... 8 14 9.0 Implementation & Monitoring 9.1 Short Range Programming... 9 1 9.2 Project Development Process... 9 3 9.3 Mitigating Social and Environmental Impacts... 9 4 9.4 Measure Performance and Progress... 9 14 9.5 Plan Revisions and Updates... 9 16 9.6 Ongoing Public Involvement Opportunities... 9 16 Technical Appendix A. Cost-Feasible and Illustrative Project Lists B. Projects on Congested Corridors C. Projects located within Vulnerable Areas D. Public Noticing and Interagency Consultation E. Project Evaluation Documentation F. Land Use Model Documentation G. Travel Demand Model Documentation H. Air Quality Conformity Documentation I. Certifications J. Acronyms and Definitions
Table of Figures Figure 1-1 Transportation Planning Areas across Tennessee... 1-5 Figure 2-1 Most Important Quality of Life Issues to Address... 2-10 Figure 2-2 Levels of Satisfaction with the Transportation System... 2-10 Figure 2-3 Problems with the Transportation System... 2-11 Figure 2-4 Most Important Transportation Problems to Solve... 2-11 Figure 2-5 Public Support for Building a Regional Transit System... 2-12 Figure 2-6 Public Support for Transportation Funding Options... 2-12 Figure 2-7 Public Support for Paying More for a Regional Transit System... 2-13 Figure 3-1 Middle Tennessee Region... 3-1 Figure 3-2 Census Urban Areas within the MPO Planning Area... 3-2 Figure 3-3 Middle Tennessee Population Growth Trend, 1970 to 2040... 3-3 Figure 3-4 Statewide Net Population Change by County, 2010 to 2040... 3-3 Figure 3-5 Population Trends by County, 1990-2040... 3-4 Figure 3-6 Ethnic and Racial Diversity by County, 2015 to 2040... 3-4 Figure 3-7 Employment Trends by County, 1990-2040... 3-4 Figure 3-8 Regional Employment by Industry/ Sector, 2010-2040... 3-5 Figure 3-9 Percentage of Jobs by Sector and County, 2010-2040... 3-5 Figure 3-10 Land Availability Analysis Environmental Constraints & Existing Development... 3-6 Figure 3-11 Future Land Use and Development Characteristics... 3-6 Figure 3-12 Market Suitability for Land Development... 3-7 Figure 3-13 Incremental Land Development Growth by Decade, 2010 to 2040... 3-7 Figure 3-14 Cumulative Land Development by Decade, 2010 to 2040... 3-8 Figure 3-15 Cumulative Land Use Intensity by Decade, 2010 to 2040... 3-8 Figure 3-16 Residential Growth by Census Block, 2010 to 2040... 3-9 Figure 3-17 Employment Growth by Census Block, 2010 to 2040... 3-9 Figure 3-18 Commodities by Weight, Growth Forecasts, 2012 to 2040... 3-10 Figure 4-1 Major Roadways across Middle Tennessee... 4-1 Figure 4-2 Roadway Centerline Miles by Functional Classification and County... 4-3 Figure 4-3 Roadway Lane Miles by Functional Classification and County... 4-3 Figure 4-4 Major Roadways by Functional Classification... 4-4 Figure 4-5 Roadways by System Type (NHS, State, Local)... 4-5 Figure 4-6 Roadways by Posted Speed Limit and Number of Lanes... 4-5 Figure 4-7 Roadway Bridges by Type of Crossing and Ownership... 4-6 Figure 4-8 Roadway Bridges by Year Built... 4-6 Figure 4-9 Grade-Separated Interchanges and Major Intersections... 4-7 Figure 4-10 Regional and Local Transit Routes... 4-9
Figure 4-11 Transit Stops and Park-and-Ride Lots... 4-9 Figure 4-12 Miles of Sidewalks and Bicycle Facilities by County... 4-10 Figure 4-13 Types of On-Road Bicycle Facilities... 4-10 Figure 4-14 Sidewalks and On-Road Bicycle Facilities... 4-11 Figure 4-15 Greenways and Multi-Use Paths... 4-11 Figure 4-16 Freight Truck Networks (Local and Regional)... 4-12 Figure 4-17 Freight Rail Network and Terminals... 4-13 Figure 4-18 CSX Transportation Rail Network... 4-14 Figure 4-19 Air Cargo and Waterborne Freight Facilities... 4-16 Figure 5-1 Forecasted Changes in Key Regional Performance Measures, 2010 to 2040... 5-1 Figure 5-2 Peer Comparison Highway Lane Miles per capita, 2012... 5-3 Figure 5-3 Peer Comparison Vehicle Miles Traveled per capita, 2012... 5-3 Figure 5-4 Peer Comparison Transit Service Hours per capita, 2012... 5-4 Figure 5-5 Peer Comparison Transit Trips per capita, 2012... 5-4 Figure 5-6 Cross-County Commuting Patterns, 2000 and 2010... 5-5 Figure 5-7 Roadway Lane Miles per Capita and Total Vehicle Miles Traveled by County... 5-6 Figure 5-8 Vehicle Volumes on Major Roadways, 2010 and 2040... 5-7 Figure 5-9 Roadway Level of Service (LOS), 2010 and 2040... 5-7 Figure 5-10 Roadway Travel Speeds, 2010 and 2040... 5-8 Figure 5-11 Congested Routes, 2010 and 2040... 5-9 Figure 5-12 Area Congestion by Severity, 2010 and 2040... 5-9 Figure 5-13 Average Morning Rush Hour Travel Times between Regional Centers, 2015-2040... 5-10 Figure 5-14 Travel Times to Downtown Nashville during AM Rush Hour, 2015 and 2040... 5-10 Figure 5-15 Travel Times From County Seats during AM Rush Hour, 2040... 5-11 Figure 5-16 Pedestrian Level of Service Rating Definitions... 5-12 Figure 5-17 Pedestrian Level of Service by County... 5-13 Figure 5-18 Bicycle Level of Service by County... 5-13 Figure 5-19 Summary of MPO Area Pedestrian and Bicycle Levels of Service... 5-14 Figure 5-20 Location of Pedestrian and Bicycle Levels of Service... 5-14 Figure 5-21 MPO Area Transit Ridership Trends, 2000-2012... 5-15 Figure 5-22 MPO Area Transit Ridership by Agency and Type of Service, 2000-2012... 5-15 Figure 5-23 MPO Area Transit Service Hours per Capita by Agency, 2012... 5-16 Figure 5-24 National, State, and Regional Crash Statistics, 2010-2014... 5-17 Figure 5-25 Statewide Crash Rate Rankings by County, 2008-2014... 5-18 Figure 5-26 Fatal Crash Rates by County, 2010 to 2014... 5-18 Figure 5-27 Pedestrian/Cyclist Involved Crash Rates by County, 2010-2014... 5-19 Figure 5-28 MPO Area Transit Collision Statistics, 2010-2014... 5-19 Figure 5-29 Truck Involved Crash Rates by County, 2010-2014... 5-20
Figure 5-30 Crashes by Transportation Mode, 2010-2014... 5-20 Figure 5-31 Location of Crashes and Fatal Crashes, 2010-2014... 5-21 Figure 5-32 Major Roadway Truck Volumes, 2010 and 2040... 5-22 Figure 5-33 Top 50 Truck Count Locations... 5-22 Figure 5-34 Bridge Height and Weight Truck Restrictions... 5-23 Figure 5-35 Condition of Area Roadways by Highway System... 5-23 Figure 5-36 MPO Area Roadway Surface Conditions against National Benchmarks... 5-24 Figure 5-37 Bridges by Age Range... 5-24 Figure 5-38 Bridge Conditions by Facility Ownership... 5-25 Figure 5-39 Locations of Structurally Deficient and Functionally Obsolete Bridges... 5-25 Figure 6-1 Alignment of RTP Goals and Map-21 Planning Factors... 6-3 Figure 6-2 Regional Transit Vision Rural, Suburban, and Urban Services... 6-5 Figure 6-3 Active Transportation Vision... 6-7 Figure 6-4 Funding Needs for Bridge Repair and Replacement... 6-11 Figure 6-5 Funding Needs for Maintenance of Roadways... 6-11 Figure 6-6 Regional Transit Vision Schematic, Tube-Style Map... 6-14 Figure 7-1 Summary of Optional Transit Mode Characteristics... 7-5 Figure 7-2 Summary of Transit Operating Characteristics by Mode... 7-6 Figure 7-3 Summary of Typical Costs by Transit Option... 7-7 Figure 7-4 Potential Application of Transit Modes in Middle Tennessee... 7-7 Figure 7-5 Local Bus Services across the U.S.... 7-8 Figure 7-6 Heavy Rail Services across the U.S.... 7-9 Figure 7-7 Commuter Rail Services across the U.S.... 7-9 Figure 7-8 Light Rail Services across the U.S.... 7-10 Figure 7-9 Streetcar Services across the U.S.... 7-10 Figure 7-10 Bus Rapid Transit Services across the U.S.... 7-11 Figure 7-11 Bus Rapid Transit Services by Type of Right-of-Way across the U.S.... 7-11 Figure 7-12 Examples of Street Networks... 7-17 Figure 7-13 Examples of Street Connectivity... 7-18 Figure 7-14 Examples of Street Spacing Guidelines... 7-18 Figure 7-15 Land Use Intensity and Collector Street Spacing... 7-18 Figure 7-16 Summary of Managed Lane Strategies and Options... 7-21 Figure 7-17 Existing HOV Lanes in Middle Tennessee... 7-21 Figure 7-18 Priced Managed Lanes across the U.S., 2015... 7-22 Figure 8-1 Federal Formula Grant Programs and Annual Apportionments... 8-1 Figure 8-2 Federal Competitive Grant Programs and Annual Apportionments... 8-2 Figure 8-3 Purchasing Power of the Gas Tax, 1997-2011... 8-3 Figure 8-4 State Gasoline and Motor Fuels Tax Collections, 1968-2014... 8-4
Figure 8-5 Federal Revenue Projections by Grant Program and Horizon, 2016-2040... 8-6 Figure 8-6 Summary of Itemized Projects by Type... 8-8 Figure 8-7 Summary of Programmatic Investments... 8-9 Figure 8-8 Cumulative Balance of Federal Grant Programs through 2020... 8-10 Figure 8-9 Cumulative Balance of Federal Grant Programs through 2030... 8-11 Figure 8-10 Cumulative Balance of Federal Grant Programs through 2040... 8-12 Figure 8-11 Anticipated Funding for Maintenance and Operations, 2016-2040... 8-13 Figure 9-1 Typical Project Development Process and Timelines... 9-4 Figure 9-2 Indicators of Vulnerability and Areas of Concern... 9-5 Figure 9-3 Areas of Environmental Sensitivity... 9-11
Livability. Sustainability. Prosperity. Diversity.