ETS: Examining the Demographics, Education, Skills and Workforce Readiness of Adults March 3, 2010 1
Convergence of Goals President Obama Gates Foundation Lumina Foundation Others 2
Convergence of Goals Gates Foundation Goal Double number of low-income adults who earn a college degree by age 26 Lumina Foundation Goal By 2025, increase to 60% Americans with high quality degrees and credentials The College Board Goal By 2025, increase to 55% young Americans who complete school with a community college degree or higher National Governors Association and Council of Chief State School Officers Developing Common Core Standards for K-12 to align skills and knowledge of graduating seniors with college readiness 3
New National Leadership this country needs and values the talents of every American. That is why we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world. - President Barack Obama 4
Clear Social Justice Issue 5
SOCIAL JUSTICE National Personal 6
2009 Unemployment Rate by Education (age 25 and older) 15.1% 9.6% 8.3% 6.4% 4.2% Less Than High School High School Some College/No Degree Associate Bachelor's Degree or higher 7
2008 Median Annual Earnings by Education (age 25 and older) $79,144 $80,860 $63,856 $50,856 $38,272 $30,732 $22,200 Less Than High School High School Associate Bachelor's Degree Masters Professional Doctorate 8
Degree Attainment by SAT Scores and Socioeconomic Status 9
College Participation by Socioeconomic Status SES QUARTILE LOWEST HIGHEST ACHIEVEMENT QUARTILE HIGHEST 78% 97% LOWEST 36% 77% College Participation by Achievement Test and Socioeconomic Status Quartile 10
63% of all jobs will require some post-secondary education, 2018 High School Graduate 27% Bachelor s Degree 23% Labor force in 2018, 154 Million High School Dropout 10% Graduate Degree 10% Some College 15% Associate s Degree 12% Source: March CPS data, Center on Education and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018 11
Key challenge for postsecondary education - defining adults and identifying characteristics 12
National Center for Education Statistics - Selected Characteristics of Independent and Dependent Students 1999-2000 NCES; Wei et al, 2005 Table 2a Independent Dependent Work 35 or more per week 58% 22% Delayed enrollment 67% 24% No high school diploma 12% 3% Attend part-time 80% 42% Have Children 53% 0% Single parent 24% 0% White 64% 71% Black 15% 9% First generation college 50% 27% Women 59% 53% 13
Non-Traditional Students Grouped by NCES Minimally nontraditional One characteristic Moderately nontraditional Two or three characteristics Highly nontraditional Four or more characteristics Majority of all undergraduates are at least minimally nontraditional 14
IMPLICATIONS In 2006, if all students who were either older than 24 or were enrolled part-time are considered nontraditional, more than half of all undergraduates fell into this category. Lucie Lapovsky, Rethinking Student Aid: Nontraditional Students, 2009 15
ACCESS IS NOT SUFFICIENT Low graduation rates for students who enter college with one or more of the nontraditional characteristics prove that access to higher education is not a guarantee of success. Lucie Lapovsky, Rethinking Student Aid: Nontraditional Students, 2009 16
For these students, financial resources are key. 17
Meeting the Challenge Fund differently Program of universal accounts Lifelong learning accounts Provide funds that can be used for education or other major investment Lucie Lapovsky, Rethinking Student Aid: Nontraditional Students, 2009 18
Good Financial Aid Policies Should make it possible for older adults to participate in postsecondary education Full-time basis Will not incentivize younger students to hold off on attending college Lucie Lapovsky, Rethinking Student Aid: Nontraditional Students, 2009 19
Employers also positively impact enrollment of older students by subsidizing tuition costs (45% in 2004-2005) Lucie Lapovsky, Rethinking Student Aid: Nontraditional Students, 2009 20
Pell Grants positively impact enrollment of older students Lucie Lapovsky, Rethinking Student Aid: Nontraditional Students, 2009 21
Students who attend more than half time are eligible to receive Pell awards that include some living costs those who attend less than parttime, are only able to receive a percentage of tuition and fees and are ineligible for Stafford Loans Lucie Lapovsky, Rethinking Student Aid: Nontraditional Students, 2009 22
Gates Millennium Scholars Scholarships provide flexibility More choice for students Worked fewer hours More likely to enter a four-year public or private institution Lead to higher levels of engagement *Source: OECD (2008). 23
Meeting the Challenge Getting educational opportunity information to nontraditional students Widely dispersed within the population KnowHow2Go Campaign Multimedia campaign aimed at increasing college enrollments of low-income and first generation students Lumina Foundation American Council on Education Ad Council Lucie Lapovsky, Rethinking Student Aid: Nontraditional Students, 2009 24
What about adults not in the postsecondary system? 25
Key Trends America is the number one country in educational attainment of older adults (aged 55 to 64) but drops to 10th for younger adults (aged 25 to 34)* *Source: OECD (2008). 26
Today more than 36 million Americans lack a high school credential 27
Every year 1.3 million U.S. students drop out of high school 28
10.5 million of these Americans are ages 18-34 These adults are marginalized and denied access to higher education and familysupporting jobs 29
Degree Attainment and Population Change (25 to 34) Ethnicity Asian White Black Hispanic Estimated increase in population by 2020 15% 8% 23% 30% Percentage with college degrees, 2007 73% 47% 28% 20% * Those with the highest expected growth continue to face significant socio-economic challenges and currently have the lowest levels of degree attainment 30
Optimistic Scenario Percentage of Young Adults (25-34) with a College Degree 2007 37% 2020 37% 12.6% 2020 Estimated Total: 49.6% If 60% of U.S. citizens with some college earn a degree 31
Optimistic Scenario: Estimated 2020 Degree Attainment (ages 25 to 34) U.S. Degree Attainment Top OECD Degree Attainment 51.4% No Degree 49.6% With Degree 40% No Degree 60% With Degree Even with a very optimistic 2020 U.S. estimate, top OECD countries will lead the U.S. by 10.4 percent 32
Bottom Line We are losing ground every day. 33
We Can t Get There From Here - Unless - We extend the pipeline and provide access and more support to individuals without high school credentials 34
Where ACE fits A top strategic priority GED Tests are central to ACE s mission and commitment to access and success in higher education GED credential is a key link between K-12, postsecondary education, and world of work Higher Ed, other Postsecondary Ed, Work Requirements College Prep. Cert. & Credential Varying K-12 Standards and Graduation Requirements GAP 35
GED Today State and local issues limit space and access Paper and pencil test limits reach Only 778,000 test takers and 493,000 credential recipients each year A bolder approach is necessary to address the nation s critical needs 36
GED Target Adult Population Potential GED candidate population 100% 80 60 40 20 0 15M US-born status dropouts Foreign-born status dropouts Homeschooled US-born adults without a high school diploma or equivalent (~10M) -Includes adults between the ages of 18-44 who have not attained a high school or equivalent credential Foreign-born adults without a high school diploma or equivalent (~5M) -Includes immigrants between the ages of 18-44 who have not received a high school or equivalent credential, regardless of whether or not they were naturalized as citizens or participated in the US school system Homeschooled (~0.24M) -Includes homeschoolers between the ages of ~16-18 (equivalent of grades 11-12) 37
GED Adult Target Population Proficiency Levels We have reasonably good estimates of when dropouts leave school and how far behind they are when they leave It appears that ~80% of GED candidate pool may currently have an academic proficiency below 8th grade Percent of population Less than 2% of the pool (11th to 12th grade) are by grade level proficiency close to the college-ready threshold 100% 80 60 11-12th grade 9-10th grade 6-8th grade Another ~15% of the pool (9 th to 10 th grade) could reach college-readiness level by investing time and having access to current accelerated learning programs 40 20 0 5th grade or less Adults without HS diploma or equivalent credential The next 40% (6 th to 8 th grade) could reach collegereadiness level by investing significant time and having access to current accelerated learning programs For the remainder, achieving a 12 th grade level of proficiency will be a more significant lift 38
GED 20/20 seeks to address the proficiency gap Projected proficiency Target proficiency Starting proficiency level (current grade level proficiency) + Time investment for preparation (total prep time) X Multiplier for accelerating proficiency (grade level gain within total prep time) = College- and Career-ready proficiency level (target grade level proficiency) 39
Academic proficiency Preparation necessary to reach a 12 th grade proficiency standard Percent of students by achievement level Proficient & advanced 100% 80 60 Basic Below basic Alex 11-12 th grade proficiency Bobby 9 th -10 th grade proficiency Low (0-6 months of preparation) Medium (6 months to 1.5 years of preparation) 40 20 0 Extremely below basic Did not complete high school Chris 6 th -8 th grade proficiency Dani 5 th grade or below proficiency High (1.5-3 years of preparation) Highest (3-6 years of preparation) 40
Academic proficiency Targeted accelerated program Percent of students by achievement level Proficient & advanced 100% 80 60 40 20 0 Basic Below basic Extremely below basic Did not complete high school Alex 11-12 th grade proficiency Bobby 9 th -10 th grade proficiency Chris 6 th -8 th grade proficiency Dani 5 th grade or below proficiency Self-directed instruction: Selfpreparation using workbooks or online materials Blended instruction: Alternative program with individually paced curriculum, flexible schedule and supplemental supports Classroom instruction: Classroombased model with flexible, intensive, in-person, individualized instruction with life skills support Basic adult education instruction: Intensive, classroom-based adult education courses as precursor to GED prep described above 41
Where we re headed ACTION PLAN AT ACE GED 20/20 is a comprehensive, multi-year initiative designed to dramatically scale up the numbers of individuals who earn the GED credential Three key components: Development of a college- and career-ready GED test aligned with the common core national standards Development of a system of multi-platform, broadly accessible academic preparation programs Connections and transition services to postsecondary education (PSE) and career opportunities 42
ACTION PLAN AT ACE COORDINATED PATHWAYS Pathways for adults to college/career-readiness, PSE success, and beyond Attract Learn Demonstrate Connect Attain Pathways to instruction al system Diagnostic assessmen t Customize d curriculum Differentiate d instruction Ongoing formative assessmen t Academicall y prepared for PSE Pathways to PSE PSE attainmen t and beyond Reconnect to programs that provide instructional support to achieve proficiency gains Take assessment to diagnose proficiency Receive customized curriculum based on current proficiency Access broad array of quality instruction tailored to specific needs Take formative assessment to tailor curriculum and instruction Take and pass GEDTS 20/20 exam Receive information, counseling, or other supports to enroll in PSE Enroll in PSE and gain access to family supporting careers Primary challenge 43
Required Pathways, Policies, and Partnerships The identification of promising approaches to accelerated learning and investment strategies capable of catalyzing their further development The development of partnerships or convening of a coalition of progressive members of the GED ecosystem The identification of learning / demonstration pilots, leveraging new partnerships and existing public funding streams, to support the accelerated learning strategy and serve as a platform for the advocacy agenda 44
ADVOCACY AGENDA Access to public funding streams would enable instructional systems to address the cost of creating the instructional system The development of an advocacy agenda targeted at federal / state policies that enable the future model (e.g., increasing eligibility of GED candidates to receive federal and state funding for pathway programs) 45
ADVOCAY AGENDA Credit for Prior Learning The CREDIT program will increase its efforts to provide accelerated pathways to postsecondary credentials for adult learners through sound academic evaluations of extra-institutional learning. 46
ADVOCACY AGENDA Financial Support for high School Dropouts Funds to offer programs Incentive for students Subsidy Funding for student computers 47
ADDITIONAL POLICY AND RESEARCH IMPLICATIONS Coordination of best practices for adult ed/ged vs. Localized programming Reporting system based on learning vs. Reporting system based on seat-time The cost of new instructional systems, vs. The ability to pay for these costs 48
New National Leadership this country needs and values the talents of every American. That is why we will provide the support necessary for you to complete college and meet a new goal: by 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world. - President Barack Obama 49
QUESTIONS 50