Wake County Public School System Market Share Trends An Analysis of Students Leaving and Entering WCPSS in 2011-12 A comparison of enrollment in Month 1, 2011with Month 1, 2010 shows a net one-year growth of 3,398 students for the Wake County Public School System (WCPSS). An analysis of student entry and exit coding by data managers shows that a large majority of new students (grades 1-12) came from other public school systems (51.6% from U.S. schools and 5.7% from foreign schools). In addition, the district enrolled more students from private or religious schools, and home schools during the past year than left the district to enter those types of schools. An exception to this were charter schools when more students left for charter schools than joined WCPSS from charter schools. As shown in Table 2 on the following page: While 864 students left WCPSS at the end of the 2010-11 school year to enter private or religious schools, 1,015 students entered WCPSS from private or religious schools at the start of the 2011-12 school year. While 228 students left to enter home schools at the end of 2010-11, 275 entered from home schools at the start of 2011-12. While 563 left to enter charter schools at the end of 2010-11, 465 entered from charter schools at the start of 2011-12. While 3,188 left to enter other public school systems outside Wake County at the end of 2010-11, 4,440 entered from public schools outside the county, state or US at the start of 2011-12. Enrollment growth in WCPSS results from a complex pattern of children being enrolled or withdrawn by their parents, both prior to the start of a school year and during the school year. While some students leave WCPSS each year to enter home, charter, or private schools or move out of Wake County, many more students enter the school system, resulting in a rising rate of growth. On the 20th day of the 2010-11 school year, there were 143,289 students in WCPSS. By the end of the year, total system membership had fallen to 141,799. However, the changes after the 20th day varied by level with a net gain of 239 students in elementary schools, a net loss of 11 in middle schools, and a net loss of 1,718 students in high schools due to mid-year graduation and dropouts. Between the end of the 2010-11 school year and the beginning of the 2011-12 school year, 6,059 students left the school district and 8,416 graduated. Taking their place were 12,002 kindergarten students and 7,743 new students in grades 1-12. On the 20th day of the 2011-12 school year, there were 146,687 students in WCPSS. The following statements describe the 7,743 new students who entered our school system in grades 1-12 prior to the 20th day of the 2011-12 school year: 445 (5.7%) were from public schools outside the United States; 2,529 (32.7%) were from U.S. public schools outside North Carolina; 1,466 (18.9%) were from North Carolina public schools outside Wake County; 1,015 (13.1%) were from private or religious schools; 465 (6.0%) were from charter schools; 275 (3.6%) were from home schools; 1,548 (20.0%) prior school unknown; 3,535 (45.7%) were White, 2,484 (32.1%) were Black/African American, 930 (12.0%) were Hispanic/Latino, 476 (6.1%) were Asian, 283 (3.7%) were Two or More Races, 24 (0.3%) were American Indian/Alaska, and 11 (0.1%) Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. 1
The following statements describe the 6,059 students who left the school system after the end of the 2010-11 school year: 324 (5.3%) went to public schools outside the United States; 1,685 (27.8%) went to U.S. public schools outside North Carolina; 1,179 (19.5%) went to North Carolina public schools outside Wake County; 864 (14.3%) went to private or religious schools; 563 (9.3%) went to charter schools; 228 (3.8%) went to home schools; 502 (8.3%) were identified as summer dropouts; 714 (11.8%) went to unknown destination; 2,699 (44.5%) were White, 1,798 (29.7%) were Black/African American, 848 (14.0%) were Hispanic/Latino, 396 (6.5%) were Asian, 286 (4.7%) were Two or More Races, 32 (0.5%) were American Indian/Alaska, and none Hawaiian/Pacific Islander. Table 1 shows the changes in student membership that occurred during the 2010-11 school year, after the 2010-11 school year, and during the 2011-12 school year. As noted earlier, elementary schools experience a gain in membership after the first month of school. Table 2 shows the students entering and leaving WCPSS between the end of the 2010-11 school year and the 20th day of 2011-12. Table 1 K-12 Membership Changes in WCPSS Elementary Middle High Total Net Change 20 th Day 10-11 to EOY 10-11 (Mo9) 239-11 -1,718-1,490 Net Change EOY 10-11 to 20 th Day 11-12 1,185 1,019 2,684 4,888 Net Change 20 th Day 10-11 to 20 th Day 11-12 1,424 1,008 966 3,398 Net Change 20 th Day 11-12 to EOG 11-12 (Mo9) 343 87-1,568-1,138 Student membership at the end of the 2010-11 school year Source or Destination of Students Table 2 Sources of WCPSS Student Membership As of the 20th Day of the 2011-12 School Year 141,799 Number Entering The 2011-12 School Year by The 20 th Day (1-12) Number Leaving After The 2010-11 School Year (K-12) Students who graduated in May 2011 8,416 Students who were in WCPSS before and after summer break (1-12) 127,423 Kindergarten students (20th Day) 12,002 NC public schools outside WCPSS 1,466 1,179 Public schools outside NC 2,974 2,009 Private or religious schools 1,015 864 Charter schools 465 563 Home schools 275 228 Prior school unknown/ unknown destination 1,548 714 Identified as summer dropouts 502 Left WCPSS within the first 20 days of 2011-12 651 Student membership on the 20th day of 2011-12 146,687 Note: The kindergarten students were not all new to WCPSS. This number includes students who were retained in kindergarten from the previous year and students who were served in WCPSS as pre-k students. 2
Demographics of Exiting Students Students who exited WCPSS after the end of the 2010-11school year can be divided into three groups: Students who left WCPSS to enter some other school system, Students who dropped out, and Students who graduated at the end of the year. Table 3 shows the ethnicity of those three groups. As shown, the ethnic composition varies by student destination. White students comprise a large majority of those leaving WCPSS to enter private, religious, or home schools, and a smaller majority of those entering charter schools or public schools outside of North Carolina. Table 3 Ethnicity of Students Leaving WCPSS After The End Of 2010-11 School Year Hawaii Total Two American an or Black or or Indian or Other White African American Hispanic or Latino Asia n More Races Alaska Pacific Islander Unknown 714 199 329 114 30 37 5 0 27.9% 46.1% 16.0% 4.2% 5.2% 0.7% 0.0% Home Schools 228 183 16 17 3 9 0 0 80.3% 7.0% 7.5% 1.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% Private or 864 578 124 45 82 30 5 0 Religious Schools 66.9% 14.4% 5.2% 9.5% 3.5% 0.7% 0.0% Charter Schools 563 337 141 34 30 20 1 0 59.9% 25.0% 6.0% 5.3% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 831 469 384 202 115 8 0 Public Outside 2,009 NC 41.4% 23.3% 19.1% 10.1 5.7% 1.1% 0.0% % Public in NC 1,179 459 509 124 26 49 12 0 38.9% 43.2% 10.5% 2.2% 4.2% 1.7% 0.0% 2,587 1,588 718 373 260 31 0 Exiting WCPSS 5,557 To Enter Other Schools 46.6% 28.6% 12.9% 6.7% 4.7% 4.3% 0.0% Summer Dropouts 502 112 210 130 23 26 1 0 22.3% 41.8% 25.9% 4.6% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2,699 1,798 848 396 286 32 0 6,059 Exiting Students 44.5% 29.7% 14.0% 6.5% 4.7% 4.5% 0.0% Grades K-12 End-Of-Year 8,416 4,705 2,119 759 448 353 32 0 Graduates 55.9% 25.2% 9.0% 5.3% 4.2% 4.5% 0.0% Total Leaving 14,475 7,404 3,917 1,607 844 639 64 0 After 2010-11 51.2% 27.1% 11.1% 5.8% 4.4% 9.0% 0.0% 3
Demographics of New Students Students served in the 2011-12 school year can be separated into three groups: Students who came into WCPSS from various sources after attending other schools in the 2010-11 school year, Students who began 2011-12 after attending WCPSS schools in 2010-11, Students in kindergarten. Table 4 shows the race/ethnicity of those three groups. As shown, the ethnic composition varies slightly. While White students comprise 49.5% of students who attended WCPSS in 2010-11 and continued in WCPSS in 2011-12, they comprise 48.5% of new kindergarten students and 45.7% of new students entering grades 1-12. Conversely, while Hispanic students comprised 14.8% of continuing students, they comprise 18.5% of kindergarten students and 12.0% of new students in grades 1-12. Asian students increased their representation slightly among kindergarten students, while the percentage of Multi-Racial students in kindergarten and 1-12 students has slightly decreased. The percentage of Black students entering the school system in grades 1-12 was higher than the percentage continuing from 2010-11, while the percentage of Black students in kindergarten was slightly lower than the other three groups. As a result of these shifts, and the implementation of the new federally mandated race/ ethnicity data collection and reporting guidelines, overall student population is slightly more ethnically diverse in 2011-12 than it was in 2010-11. Type of Prior School Table 4 Ethnicity of Students Entering WCPSS Prior To The 20th Day 2011-12, Grade 1-12 Black or Africa Two American Hawaiian n Hispa or Indian or or Other Total Ameri nic or More Alaska Pacific White can Latino Asian Races Islander 498 694 215 67 70 3 1 32.2% 44.8% 13.9% 4.3% 4.5% 0.2% 0.1% 223 21 6 11 13 1 0 81.1% 7.6% 2.2% 4.0% 4.7% 0.4% 0.0% 1,015 674 197 68 52 23 1 0 66.4% 19.4% 6.7% 5.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 402 204 155 27 3 10 1 2 50.7% 38.6% 6.7% 0.7% 2.5% 0.2% 0.5% 19 33 5 1 3 2 0 30.2% 52.4% 7.9% 1.6% 4.8% 3.2% 0.0% 2,974 1,369 738 451 293 109 9 5 46.0% 24.8% 15.2% 9.9% 3.7% 0.3% 0.2% Unknown 1,548 Home School 275 Private/Religious School Charters Outside Wake Wake Charters 63 Public Outside NC Public In NC 1,466 New Students Grades 1-12 WCPSS Students From The 2010-11 School Year (K-12) 7,743 127,423 Kindergarten (20th Day) 12,002 548 646 158 49 55 7 3 37.4% 44.1% 10.8% 3.3% 3.8% 0.5% 0.2% 3,535 2,484 930 476 283 24 11 45.7% 32.1% 12.0% 6.1% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 63,127 31,240 18,895 7,872 5,638 523 128 49.5% 24.5% 14.8% 6.2% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% 5,815 2,638 2,224 841 436 32 16 48.5% 22.0% 18.5% 7.0% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4
As shown in Table 5, a comparison of 20th day reports of student membership by race and gender shows a slight shift in WCPSS demographics in 2011-12. Some changes are due to the implementation of the new federally mandated race/ethnicity data collection and reporting guidelines, effective 2010-11 school year. Table 5 20th Day Membership By Race/Ethnicity and Gender American Indian or Alaska Asian Black or African American Hispanic or Latino Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Two or More Races White Summary 2010-11 2011-12 Number Percent Number Percent Male 335 0.23% 309 0.21% Female 303 0.21% 269 0.18% Male 4,356 3.04% 4,589 3.13% Female 4,288 2.99% 4,587 3.13% Male 18,004 12.56% 18,350 12.51% Female 17,490 12.21% 17,861 12.18% Male 10,572 7.38% 11,110 7.57% Female 10,337 7.21% 10,849 7.40% Male 71 0.05% 70 0.05% Female 76 0.05% 82 0.06% Male 3,186 2.22% 3,153 2.15% Female 3,285 2.29% 3,187 2.17% Male 36,520 25.49% 37,336 25.45% Female 34,466 24.05% 34,934 23.82% Male 73,044 50.98% 74,917 51.07% Female 70,245 49.02% 71,770 48.93% 143,289 146,687 Summary Despite the rapid growth in student membership in WCPSS, the overall makeup of the student population changed only slightly. A large majority (51.6%) of new students in grades 1-12 came from U.S. public schools outside Wake County, and a similar majority (52.6%) of students leaving the school system to a known destination prior to graduation went to other U.S. public school systems. The number of students entering the district from private, religious, or home schools was larger than the number leaving the district to attend those types of schools with the exception of charter schools. A comparison of race and ethnicity of students entering and leaving the school district shows a slight shift in the WCPSS demographics over the years. As a result, the overall student population is now more ethnically diverse. This change is consistent with the state and national trends. Prepared by: WCPSS/Office of Student Assignment/Demographics July 4, 2012 5