Socio-economy of Indian States

Transcription

1 Socio-economy of Indian States Bibek Debroy Laveesh Bhandari Indicus Analytics

2 This Presentation INDIA TODAY Rating and Ranking States What is happening within the states INDIA TOMORROW Where are the states going towards? Socio-economic progress Economic growth

3 Classification of States Large-Small States: Large states have population of greater than 5 million and area greater than sq km Example: Arunachal area similar to West Bengal s area, population similar to Pondicherry s population Example: Delhi population similar to J&K s population, similar to Goa s area Delhi and Pondicherry considered states Chief Ministers Elected Assemblies

4 States & UTs Larger States 1 Andhra 11 Kerala 2 Assam 12 Madhya 3 Bihar 13 Maharashtra 4Chhattisgarh 14 Orissa 5 Gujarat 15 Punjab 6 Haryana 16 Rajasthan 7 Himachal 17 TN 8 J & K 18 UP 9 Jharkhand 19 Uttaranchal 10 Karnataka 20 WB Smaller 1 Arunachal 2 Delhi 3 Goa 4 Manipur 5 Meghalaya 6 Mizoram 7 Nagaland 8 Pondicherry 9 Sikkim 10 Tripura UTs 1 A&N Islands 2 Chandigarh 3 D&N Haveli 4 Daman Diu 5 Lakshadweep

5 Categories Agriculture: Cash crops, Productivity, Irrigation Consumer Market: TV, 2-wheeler, Expenditure Education: Literacy, primary school completion, states expenditure Health: IMR, doctors, tap water, gender bias Law & Order: Police, pending cases, violence Infrastructure: Electricity, roads, telephone, LPG Investment Environment: disputes, SSI sickness, commercial bank credit, public investment Budget & Prosperity: Poverty, SGDP, State debt

6 Ranking of States All states are different They have to be made comparable Larger States, Smaller States, UTs Normalization Ratios and percentages Per capita

7 Infrastructure Access to Electricity Road length Bank branches LPG connections Post offices Telephone density

8 Consumer Markets TV ownership Rural households spending > Rs 615 per person per month Urban households spending > Rs 1120 per person per month Bank deposits Two wheelers

9 Education Literacy rate 10 plus children completed primary Girls to boys enrolled in elementary school Teacher student ratio Expenditure on elementary education

10 Law & Order, Justice Police strength Pending to total cases in courts Incidence of murder Incidence of kidnapping Incidence of rape & molestations

11 Health IMR Male to female IMR Births assisted Access to tap water Doctors Sex ratio Expenditure on health and family welfare

12 Investment Attractiveness Public administration GSDP State s capital expenditure Bank credit Industrial disputes Gross capital formation Industrial workers Sick SSIs

13 Agriculture Cash crops Agriculture GSDP Electricity consumption Food grain yield Loans to agriculture Irrigated to sown area

14 Budget & Prosperity State s capital expenditure Total debt Sales revenue of SEBs Per capita GSDP Urbanization Inflation Poverty

15 Overall Performance Agriculture Consumer markets Education Law & order, justice Health Infrastructure Investment attractiveness Budget & prosperity

16 How rapidly are regions growing Motor Spirit Diesel Credit Deposits Cereals R-Square of 93% with GSDP

17 Breadth of Social Progress 1. Demography: 0-6 sex ratio 2. Education: Literacy, female to male literacy, gross enrollment ratio in elementary school 3. Health: IMR, fully immunized children 4. Prosperity: Poverty, Hunger An equal weighted index constructed for all 593 districts

18 Socioeconomic status

19 States in Prosperity: SGDP, Poverty 2. Health: Life expectancy, IMR 3. Education: Literacy 4. Demography: Age wise population 5. Projections based on trends since nineties

20 Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Assam Assam Bihar Bihar Chhattisgarh Chhattisgarh Gujarat Gujarat Haryana Haryana Jharkhand Jharkhand Karnataka Karnataka Kerala Kerala Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Maharashtra Orissa Orissa Punjab Punjab Rajasthan Rajasthan Tamil Tamil Nadu Nadu Uttar Uttar Pradesh Pradesh West West Bengal Bengal What will happen to the states Poverty

21 What will happen to the states Standard of Living

22 What will happen to the states Inequality between states will be higher Migration Inequality, Migration & Freedom This internal migration will be affected by Economic freedom States that provide greater levels of freedom to carry out economic activities will attract and retain human resources

23 Economic Freedom and Migration 7.00 Out migration as % of Home Pop UP Bihar MP Orissa 1.00 Assam WB Economic Freedom Index

24 What will the states be like in 2020 International Comparison Based on Standard of Living (Purchasing Power Parity, US dollars today) How will the standard of living in the states in 2020 be like, in terms of other countries today

25 Andhra = Bulgaria, Turkey = Angola, Indonesia Chhattisgarh Assam = Pakistan, Zimbabwe Gujarat = Russia, Saudi Arabia Bihar =Uganda, Bangladesh Haryana = Brazil, Mauritius

26 Himachal Karnataka = Turkey, South Africa = South Africa/Chil Hungary J & K = Indonesia, Lebanon Kerala = Iran, Russia Jharkhand = Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka MP =Angola, Indonesia

27 Maharashtra Rajasthan = Mexico, Argentina =Lebanon, Iran Orissa = Ghana, Zimbabwe TN = Russia, Saudi Arabia Punjab = Brazil, Mauritius UP =Vietnam, Indonesia

28 WB = Romania, Russia Pondicherry = France, USA Delhi =New Zealand, Japan Chandigarh = Japan, USA = Spain, Switzerland Goa

29 Thank You