America s New Urban and Regional Demographics William H. Frey Metropolitan Policy Program-The Brookings Institution Population Studies Center-The University of Michigan
* Population and Migration Trends * Race and Ethnic Shifts * Aging and Younging
State Growth, 2000-2010 Below 0% 0% -4% 5% - 9% 10% - 20% 20% +
Growth Rates for 1990-2000 and 2000-10 25 20 17.3 19.6 15 14.3 13.8 10 5 5.4 7.9 3.2 3.9 0 Northeast Midwest South West 1990-2000 2000-2010
Medium NE Metro Growth, 2000-2010 A l a s k a 1 Allentown 10.9% 2 Lancaster 10.4% 3 Harrisburg 7.9% 4 Poughkeepsie 7.8% 5 Worcester 6.3% 6 New Haven 4.7% 7 Bridgeport 3.9% 8 Syracuse 1.9% 9 Springfield 1.9% 10 Scranton.5%
Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland
Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States Native Born 37% Foreign Born 66% Spanish at Home 72% Asian Language at Home 65%
Demographic Components, 2000-2009 (Rates per 1000) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 57 42 26 16-18 -15 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland Immigratio n Domestic Migration
Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-09 1 Phoenix 530,579 2 Riverside, CA 457,430 3 Atlanta 412,832 4 Dallas 307,907 5 Las Vegas 299,027 6 Tampa 254,650 7 Charlotte 243,399 8 Houston 242,573
Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-09 1 New York 1,079,016 2 Los Angeles 803,614 3 Miami 506,423 4 Chicago 363,134 5 Dallas 323,941 6 Washington DC 310,222 7 Houston 289,648 8 San Francisco 257,318
Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, 2000-09 1 New York -1,920,745 2 Los Angeles -1,337,522 3 Chicago -547,430 4 Detroit -361,632 5 San Francisco -343,834 6 New Orleans - 298,721 7 Miami -284,860 8 San Jose -233,133
Demographic Components, 2000-2009 (Rates per 1000) 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 -12 5.9 4.3 2.2-2.0-5.3-10.4 New York Boston Philadelphia Immigration Domestic Migration
Demographic Components, 2000-2009 (Rates per 1000) 8 6 4 2 0-2 2.1 6.1 2.9-1.1 1.2 Immigration Domestic Migration -4-6 -4.0 Allentown Worcester Syracuse
Migration Slowdown 1947-8 to 20010-11 25 20 15 10 5 0 1948-1949 1950-1951 1952-1953 1954-1955 1956-1957 1958-1959 1960-1961 1962-1963 1964-1965 1966-1967 1968-1969 1970-1971 1975-1976 1980-1981 1982-1983 1984-1985 1986-1987 1988-1989 1990-1991 1992-1993* 1994-1995 1996-1997 1998-1999 2000-2001 2002-2003 2004-2005 2006-2007 2008-2009 2010-2011
College Graduates (age 25+) Rates of Migration 2005-6 to 2010-11 Source: W. Frey analysis of US Census Bureau Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement
Intercounty Reasons for Move: Employment vs Housing Source: W. Frey analysis of US Census Bureau Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement
California versus Mountain West Annual Net Domestic Migration 2000-9 400000.0 300000.0 200000.0 100000.0 0.0-100000.0-200000.0-300000.0-400000.0 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 California Mountain West
New York versus Florida Annual Net Domestic Migration 2000-9 300000.0 200000.0 100000.0 0.0-100000.0-200000.0-300000.0 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 New York Florida
Top Metro Net Migration Gainers, 2004-5 Rank Metro Net Mig 1 Phoenix 98,789 2 Riverside 72,341 3 Tampa 51,985 4 Orlando 51,826 5 Atlanta 51,305 6 Las Vegas 39,331
New and Old Net Migration Gainers, 2008-9 Rank Metro Net Mig 1 Houston 49,662 2 Dallas 45,241 3 Austin 25,654 4 Raleigh 20,095 5 Denver 19,831 6 Charlotte 19,211 9 Atlanta 17,479 13 Phoenix 12,441 30 Tampa 4,663 279 Riverside -616 306 Las Vegas -1,256 346 Orlando -4,279
Florida Metro Areas Annual Net Migration 2000-2009 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0-10,000 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 Orlando Tampa Jacksonville
Metro Phoenix Domestic and International Migration 2000-2009 120000.0 100000.0 80000.0 60000.0 40000.0 20000.0 0.0 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 Domestic International
Texas Metro Areas Annual Net Migration 2000-2009 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0-20,000 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 Dallas Houston Austin
Annual Population Growth, 2000-9 3.0 Urban, Suburban, Exurban 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 Urban Suburban Exurban
Race Ethnic Shares 2010 Population 2000-10 Growth 1.9 4.7 16.3 55.5 8.3 13.7 12.2 63.7 15.9 5.0 White Black Am Indian Asian Hawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic
Race Ethnic Profiles of Regions 2010 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 12% 28% 4% 3% 3% 6% 2% 12% 51% 14% 3% 7% 11% 67% 77% White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Greatest Immigrant Growth 2000-2010 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Alabama South Carolina Tennessee Arkansas Kentucky North Carolina South Dakota Georgia
Hispanic Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Greatest Hispanic Growth Rates 2000-2010 State Growth 1 South Carolina 148% 2 Alabama 145% 3 Tennessee 134% 4 Kentucky 122% 5 Arkansas 114% 6 North Carolina 111% 7 Maryland 106% 8 Mississippi 106%
Asian Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Greatest Asian Growth Rates 2000-2010 State Growth 1 Nevada 116% 2 North Dakota 92% 3 Arizona 91% 4 North Carolina 84% 5 Georgia 82% 6 Arkansas 79% 7 New Hampshire 79% 8 Delaware 76%
Black Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Largest Black Gains 2000-2010 State Gains 1 Florida 586,832 2 Georgia 579,335 3 Texas 522,570 4 North Carolina 296,553 5 Maryland 209,494 6 Virginia 147,326 7 Pennsylvania 124,654 8 Tennessee 121,187
White Concentrations 2010 Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey analysis of Census2010
Largest White Gains 2000-2010 State Gains 1 North Carolina 576,840 2 Texas 464,032 3 Florida 426,213 4 Arizona 421,389 5 Colorado 317,913 6 Utah 317,454 7 South Carolina 310,449 8 Tennessee 294,852
Largest White Losses 2000-2010 State Losses 1 California -860,537 2 New York -456,734 3 New Jersey -342,331 4 Illinois -256,387 5 Michigan -236,752 6 Pennsylvania -227,803 7 Massachusetts -213,559 8 Ohio -178,848
Metro-NonMetro Race Changes, 1990-2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 82 86 71 77 82 72 80 64 57 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Large Metros** Small Metros NonMetros White* Black* Asian* Other Races* Hispanic
Race Ethnic Compositions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 36 32 60 51 71 65 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 Los Angeles Atlanta Philadelphia White Black Hispanic Asian Other
LA and NY: Race Change 2000-2010 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0-200,000-400,000-600,000 Los Angeles New York White Black Asian Hispanic
Atlanta and Phila: Race Change 2000-2010 450,000 350,000 250,000 150,000 50,000-50,000-150,000 Atlanta Philadelphia White Black Asian Hispanic
City and Suburb Populations, 1990-2010 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 53 Cities 17 22 26 24 23 22 45 41 81 Suburbs 8 7 12 17 9 10 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 White Black Am Indian Asian Hawaii Othr Race 2+ Races Hispanic 72 65
2000-10 Change in City and Suburb Population by Race/Ethnicity 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0-2,000,000 City Suburbs White Black Asian 2+ Races Hispanic
City Suburb Race-Ethnic Profiles Selected Metros 100% Los Angeles Atlanta Philadelphia 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 75 55 28 36 36 37 City Suburbs City Suburbs City Suburbs White Black Asian/other Hispanic
Cities with Greatest Black Losses 2000-2010 City Black Loss 1 Detroit -185,393 2 Chicago -181,453 3 New York -100,859 4 Los Angeles -54,606 5 Washington DC -39,035 6 Oakland -33,502 7 Cleveland -33,304 8 Atlanta -29,746
Metro Residents Living in Suburbs 1990-2010 90 80 74 77 78 70 60 50 40 37 44 51 54 57 62 47 54 59 30 20 10 0 White Black Asian Hispanic 1990 2000 2010
US Growth by Age 2000-10 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 50 19 18 11 12 2 3-9 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Growth by Ages 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 23 49 44 28 20 6 2 4-9 -6-6 -17 Atlanta Philadelphia Pittsburgh Under 25 25-44 45-64 65+
State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-10 Growth 5% and over Growth under 5% Decline under 5% Decline 5% and over Under age 18
2000-2010 Change in Child Population by Race-Ethnicity 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0-2,000,000-4,000,000-6,000,000 White Black Am Indian Asian 2+ Races Hispanic
Percent Minority Children, 2010 GT 50% 40% - 50% 25% - 40% Under 25%
Percent Children with Immigrant Parents 60 50 51% 40 35% 35% 34% 32% 31% 31% 30 23% 20 10 0 CA NY NV AZ FL NJ TX US Ist Gen 2nd Gen
Children Speaking Other than English GT 20% 10% - 20% 6% - 10% Under 6% * Ages 5-17
US Growth by Age 2000-10 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 50 19 18 11 12 2 3-9 0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Median Ages for States, 2010 40 and over 38 to 40 36 to 38 Below 36
Age 65 + Growth 2000-10 GT 25% 15% -25% 10% -15% under 10%
Population Changes - 3 Decades 12,000 Young Elderly Old Elderly (65-74) (75 +) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: Source: William William H. H. Frey Frey analysis 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030
RANK: Age 65+ Growth, 2000-2010 A l a s k a 1 Raleigh 60% 2 Austin 53% 3 Las Vegas 50% 4 Boise City 46% 5 Atlanta 44% 6 Provo 42% 7 Colorado Springs 40% 8 Houston 39% 9 Dallas 38% 10 Charlotte 36%
RANK: Age 55-64 Growth, 2000-2010 A l a s k a 1 Raleigh 60% 2 Austin 53% 3 Las Vegas 50% 4 Boise City 46% 5 Atlanta 44% 6 Provo 42% 7 Colorado Springs 40% 8 Houston 39% 9 Dallas 38% 10 Charlotte 36%
Projected Number of Moves by Age 2005-2010
Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30, US States 140% & above 100% -139% 70% -99% under 69%
Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40 percent growth 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 Florida California New York
Percent Age 65+, Central and Suburban Counties, Projected 2000-2040: Selected Metro Areas 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2000 2005 2010 2015 New York Philadelphia Chicago 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Los Angeles Central Cos. Source: Source: William William H. H. Frey Frey analysis analysis Suburban Cos.
Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife % With 3+ Kids 30% 55% % Not Married 21% 36% %Women Not Working 23% 50% % HS Dropout 14% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Boomers Parents
Projected Race-Ethnic Shares, 2000-30 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Children 61 54 50 46 2000 2010 2020 2030 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Seniors 84 80 76 71 2000 2010 2020 2030 white Black Asian/Other Hispanic
Contributions to Labor Force Growth 2010-2020 (in millions) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 9.6 2 3.5-5 White Black Asian/Other Hispanic
Race for Age Groups: Arizona 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 42 Age Under 15 51 68 83 Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Race for Age Groups: US 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 55.5 60.3 Age Under 15 71.6 80.4 Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Race for Age Groups: Minnesota 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 78.6 82.3 91.6 96.2 0% Age Under 15 Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+ White Black Asian Other Hispanic
Useful Websites www.brookings.edu/metro/stateofmetroamerica/map www.censusscope.org www.frey-demographer.org