US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real)

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US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) October, 8 Dr. Edward Yardeni -97-78 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 8-- djohnson@ Mali Quintana 8-- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents GDP Levels: Nominal & Real GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real GDP ex-government GDP & GNP -7 GDP Components 8 Equipment & Intellectual Property 9 Real US Consumer Spending Real Capital Spending - Real Inventories Real Trade Exports & Imports - Real Government 7 Contributions to GDP Growth 8- Ratios October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

.... 8..... 8. Figure. NOMINAL GDP (trillions dollars, saar, ratio scale) GDP Levels: Nominal & Real.... 8..... 8........ 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8.. 9. 7... Figure. REAL GDP (trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale). 9. 7..... 9. 9. 7. 7...... 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8. Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Figure. GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real US NOMINAL GDP Total (.) - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. US REAL GDP GROWTH & % "STALL SPEED" - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Dotted line is % "stall speed." Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

GDP ex-government. 7. Figure. REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING (trillion dollars, saar). 7..... Real GDP Real GDP excluding Total Government Spending.. 7. 7...... 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8. Figure. US REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING - - - - - - - - -7 Real GDP (.) Real GDP excluding Total Government Spending (.) 9 7 8 9 - - - - -7 Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Figure 7. REAL GDP & FINAL SALES GDP & GNP - - - - Real GDP (.) Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers (.) - - - - - 9 7 8 9 - Figure 8. REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar, ratio scale) Real GDP (87.) Real GNP (87.) 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

8 Figure 9. REAL GDP & Q SEASONAL WEAKNESS (quarterly percent change, saar) GDP & GNP 8 - - - - - 9 7 8 9 Note: Blue shaded areas denote first quarter of each year. - Page 7 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Figure. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (billion dollars, saar) GDP Components PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT Equipment 9 9 7 Total 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Total Goods 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Intellectual Property Products 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT: STRUCTURES Total Structures 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 7 7 9 8 7 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES TRADE Exports Imports Services 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 GOVERNMENT SPENDING Federal State & Local 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 Page 8 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Figure. PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (billion dollars, saar) Information Processing & Equipment Equipment & Intellectual Property 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Intellectural Property Products 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 8 7 7 Industrial Equipment 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Software 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Transportation Equipment Research & Development 7 9 7 9 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Other Equipment 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Entertainment, Literary & Artistic Originals 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 8 7 Page 9 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

7 Figure. Real US Consumer Spending PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN REAL GDP Total 7 - - - - - - - - - - Aug 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 Aug Durables Nondurables 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 Services Aug 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - - - - - - - - - - Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Figure. Real Capital Spending PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP - - - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Equipment Structures Intellectual Property Products - - - 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Figure. Real Capital Spending NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Intellectual Property Products: Software Research & Development Entertainment, Literary & Artistic Origins - 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

- - - Figure. INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar) Real Inventories 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - - - MANUFACTURING - 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - WHOLESALE - - - - - - - 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 RETAIL EX AUTOS 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - - - RETAIL AUTOS - - - - 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - - Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Figure 7. Real Trade NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar) - - - - - - - - - - - - -7-7 -8-8 -9-9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9-9 - Figure 8. EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP Exports Imports - - - 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Exports & Imports Figure 9. US: EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billions of dollars, saar) 8 Imports Exports 8 8 8 8 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 8 Figure. TRADE DEFICIT (billion dollars, saar) - - - - - Total Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil - -8-8 - Sep 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. - Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Exports & Imports 8 7 Figure. EXPORTS (billion dollars, saar) Sep 8 7 Total Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil 9 9 8 8 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 7 Figure. IMPORTS (billion dollars, saar) Sep 7 8 Total Ex Petroleum & Crude Oil 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Figure. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN REAL GDP Real Government Total (.) - 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING Federal (.) - 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING State & Local (.8) - 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Page 7 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Contributions to GDP Growth Figure. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.7) - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Durable Goods (.) - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Nondurable Goods (.7) - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Services (.) - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. - Page 8 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

Figure. Contributions to GDP Growth REAL RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (contribution to real GDP change) Total (-.) - - - - - - - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Nonresidential Investment (.) - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Structures (-.) - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Equipment & Software (.) - - - 8 - -8 - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Change In Nonfarm Inventories (.) 8 - -8 Page 9 / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

8 - - Figure. Contributions to GDP Growth NET EXPORT OF GOODS & SERVICES (contribution to real GDP change) Total (-.8) 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8-8 - Exports of Goods & Services (-.) - - - 7 - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Imports of Goods & Services (-.) 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8-7 - - Federal Government Spending (.) - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - - State & Local Government Spending (.) - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

7 Figure 7. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (as a percent of nominal GDP) Ratios 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 8 Figure 8. REVENUES & EXPENDITURES 8 Federal Revenues (as a percent of nominal GDP) Federal Expenditures (as a percent of nominal GDP) 8 8 Q 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Page / October, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.

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