Leander I.S.D. Demographic Update October 15, 2015
2 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning
3 Numeric Change Total in Student Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) Enrollment 4 th Week Survey, Fall 2010-11 2015 to Fall 2016 3 (pre-peims Estimates)
4 Numeric Change in Student Total Enrollment Enrollment (Pre-PEIMS) 4 th Week Survey, Fall 2010 2010-11 to Fall 2015 4 (pre-peims Estimates)
Enrollment 5 Past Growth Rates 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 10.22% 7.37% 9.12% 3.60% 3.22% 6.83% 5.58% 3.11% 2.15% 2.56% 15,000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
KN as a Percentage of Total Enrollment 6 Year Leander % KN Texas % KN Leander's Rank 2008 8.61% 7.65% 6th 2009 8.56% 7.76% 5th 2010 7.96% 7.68% 17th 2011 7.66% 7.58% 22nd 2012 7.45% 7.46% 34th 2013 7.22% 7.57% 38th 2014 6.93% 7.43% 48th 2015 6.82% --- --- * Of 62 Districts with 20,000 or more students
Kindergarten Enrollment vs. Births 7
8 Deceleration in Growth The past few years enrollment reflected a deceleration in growth. Why? Fewer younger students Younger families moving into fewer new homes Lack of regeneration in built-out subdivisions These changes in trends do NOT mean that growth in Leander I.S.D. is stopping, but, like almost all other large districts, it has slowed.
9 Fastest Growth Districts in Texas (pre-peims Enrollment Estimates, Sept 2015) Districts with >20,000 Students Rank District Sept 2015 Enrollm ent Growth Percent Growth 1 Dallas ISD 164,742 4,489 2.8% 2 Frisco ISD 53,124 3,480 7.0% 3 Katy ISD 72,825 2,495 3.5% 4 Conroe ISD 58,174 1,811 3.2% 5 Lamar CISD 29,576 1,244 4.4% 6 Alvin ISD 22,030 1,164 5.6% 7 Klein ISD 50,395 993 2.0% 8 Northwest ISD 20,800 969 4.9% 9 Grand Prairie ISD 29,245 905 3.2% 10 Fort Worth ISD 86,835 860 1.0% 11 Fort Bend ISD 72,993 841 1.2% 12 Leander ISD 37,042 831 2.3% 13 Cy-Fair ISD 113,822 799 0.7% 14 Humble ISD 40,278 756 1.9% (Ranked by Number of Students Added)
10 Fastest Growth Districts in Texas (pre-peims Enrollment Estimates, Sept 2015) Districts with >20,000 Students Rank District Sept 2015 Enrollm ent Growth Percent Growth 1 Frisco ISD 53,124 3,480 7.0% 2 Alvin ISD 22,030 1,164 5.6% 3 Northwest ISD 20,800 969 4.9% 4 Lamar CISD 29,576 1,244 4.4% 5 Comal ISD 21,081 754 3.7% 6 Katy ISD 72,825 2,495 3.5% 7 Conroe ISD 58,174 1,811 3.2% 8 Grand Prairie ISD 29,245 905 3.2% 9 Dallas ISD 164,742 4,489 2.8% 10 Pearland ISD 21,034 484 2.4% 11 Leander ISD 37,042 831 2.3% 12 Klein ISD 50,395 993 2.0% 13 Humble ISD 40,278 756 1.9% 14 Keller ISD 34,244 625 1.9% (Ranked by Percent Growth)
11 Unique Demographic Characteristics Leander I.S.D. Low Economically Disadvantaged population (19.7%) [58.4% in Texas] Leander ISD ranked 3 rd in Texas High STAAR passage rate (83%) [71.8% in Texas] Leander ISD ranked 11 th in Texas Highly educated population (44% have bachelor s degree) [41% in Austin and 27.6% in Texas] High median income level ($81,615) [$63,603 in the Austin metro area]
12 Private and Charter Schools Grades Current Enrollment From LISD in KN-12th Enrollment in 5 yrs. From LISD in KN-12th Austin International School 3yrs-5th 210 8 250 9 Cedar Park Montessori School 18mos-6th 85 18 90 19 Founder's Classical Academy K-11th 495 446 650 585 Gateway College Prep School K-12th 1,150 31 1,389 35 Harbor Christian Academy 1st-12th 45 27 55 33 Harmony School for Political Science K-11th 827 0 1,000 0 Hill Country Christian School PK-12th 600 423 700 494 Holy Family Catholic School PK-8th 509 229 709 319 Leander Charter Academy PK-12th 200 138 300 207 Primrose School at Vista Ridge Inf-K,AS 200 7 200 7 Primrose School at Four Points Inf-K,AS 180 9 185 9 School in the Hills - Steiner Ranch 18 mos-3rd 222 36 180 29 School in the Hills - River Place 18 mos-3rd opens Jan 2016 250 41 Sterling Classical School PK-12th 302 179 350 207 Summit Christian Academy PK-12th 335 241 450 324 % of LISD residents in private schools Current Enrollment Projected 5 Years 4.61% 5.05%
13 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning
Development Density % of LISD 14 Built out 35% Active 8% Planned 2% Undev. 20% Parks 3% B.C.N.W.R. 7% B.C.N.W.R. Targeted 9% B.C. Preserve 12% Other Preserve 1% 14 Water 3%
15 Student Growth by Type of Housing Resident Students in 2014 Resident Students in 2015 Added Students 2014 to 2015 # % Percent of Growth Subdivisions - Built-out Subdivisions - Actively Building 29,556 29,518-38 0% -- 2,412 3,224 812 34% 80% Apartments 3,005 3,119 114 4% 11% Condo 286 375 89 31% 9% MHP 26 29 3 12% 0%
16 Factors Contributing to New Housing Growth MUDs and TIRZ Financing Changing Land Plans New Comprehensive Plans Large Mixed Use Developments Condo-izing of Formerly Planned Multi-Family and Commercial Availability of Water Environmental Concerns Transportation Improvements
Leander I.S.D. Future Transportation Transportation Improvements Drive New Housing Construction North side: Lakeline extension up to FM 2243 San Gabriel Parkway now spans CR 270 to Bagdad Planned expansion East (to Ronald Reagan) and West (to future Lakeline) Improved access within and through subdivisions: Lakeline extension (Mason Hills) Goodnight and other arterials (Travisso) Osage extension (Crystal Falls and Travisso) - planned East side: Recent thoroughfares (Hero Way, E Crystal Falls Pkwy, New Hope Dr) Future extensions (E Crystal Falls Pkwy, New Hope Dr) Whitestone current widening east of 183A 17
Largest Growth Single-Family Developments New Housing Occupancies NBCD Single-Family Developments 2015-2020 2020-2025 2015-2025 18 4650 Travisso 830 1,139 1,969 4625, 4630, 4675, 4680, 4685 Crystal Falls 1,096 164 1,260 1150 Bryson 407 538 945 4605&4610 Mason Hills 617 308 925 1175 Palmera Ridge and Palmera Bluff 376 508 884 1110 Caughfield Development 190 447 637 1110 Highland Meadows 160 455 615 1225 Parkside at Mayfield Ranch 375 199 574 3970 Deerbrooke 143 425 568 3400 Kutscher Ranch 52 430 482 3960 Oak Creek 292 182 474 3900 Greatwood 160 230 390 4000 Hawkes Landing 163 146 309 4,861 5,171 10,032 23,827 Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions): Total Subdivision Housing Projected:
19 Multi-Family Developments in the Next Two Years NBCD Apartment Complex Subsidized Status Units 2705 Aria at Steiner Ranch 35% o ccupied 195 2580 Cardinal Point TDHCA appro ved by T D H C A 120 2580 Escape at Four Points 80% o ccupied 344 1300 Leander Crossing m o v ing dirt 275 1260 Parkway Crossing US HUD m o v ing dirt 242 2700 Tacara Steiner Ranch 4900 The Tuckaway TDHCA 1160 Village at Leander Station 2550 Windy Ridge TDHCA planned fo r 2016 246 applying to T D H C A 256 under co nstructio n 220 under co nstructio n 120
Projected New Housing Occupancies 2015 2025 Year Ending in October: Single Family Condo/ Townhome Housing Multi- Family Total New Housing Units 2016 1,752 359 715 2,111 2017 1,969 446 1,003 2,415 2018 2,304 619 1,166 2,923 2019 2,574 716 1,591 3,290 2020 2,681 679 1,726 3,360 2021 2,717 550 1,617 3,267 2022 2,712 444 1,308 3,156 2023 2,493 314 890 2,807 2024 2,326 216 814 2,542 2025 2,299 102 672 2,401 2015-2020 11,280 2,819 6,201 20,300 2020-2025 12,547 1,626 5,301 19,474 2015-2025 23,827 4,445 11,502 39,774 20
21 Projected New Housing Occupancies September 2015 to October 2016
22 Projected New Housing Occupancies September 2015 to October 2020
23 Projected New Housing Occupancies September 2015 to October 2025
24 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning
25 Ratios of Students per Household 2012 2013 2014 2015 Single-Family 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.66 Homes students per home students per home students per home students per home Apartments 0.31 students per unit 0.31 students per unit 0.29 students per unit 0.30 students per unit
Students per Home in the Master Planned Communities 26 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Avery Ranch 0.50 0.50 0.51 0.69 0.70 Crystal Falls 0.75 0.75 0.69 0.72 0.70 Mason Hills -- -- -- -- 0.36 Steiner Ranch 1.00 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 Travisso -- -- -- -- 0.41 Twin Creeks 0.96 0.72 0.76 0.81 0.82
27 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning
Enrollment 28 Three Scenarios of Growth 55,000 50,000 45,000 High Growth 2020 44,668 2025 52,938 Moderate Growth 2020 43,546 2025 50,226 40,000 Low Growth 2020 42,330 2025 47,193 35,000 30,000 2012 2016 2020 2025
29 Population & Survey Analysts L.I.S.D. Demographic Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning
30 Projected Resident EE-5 th Grade Students by Current Elementary Attendance Zone
Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 31 Open Elementary #26 2017-18
Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 32 Open Elementary #27 2019-20
Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 33 Open Elementary #28 2020-21
Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 34 Open Elementary #29 2021-22
Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 35 Open Elementary #30 and #31 2022-23
Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 36 Open Elementary #32 2023-24 or 2024-25
Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Elementary Long Range Planning 37 Summary
38 Summary Elementary Long Range Plan New Elementary Schools Projected to be Needed 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total 2015 Study 1 1 1 1 2 1 7 2014 Study 1 1 1 1 2 1 7 2013 Study 1 1 1 2 1 6 2012 Study 1 1 1 1 1 5
39 Projected Resident 6 th -8 th Grade Students by Current Middle School Attendance Zone
Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Middle School Long Range Planning 40 Open Middle School #9 2020-21
Planning Document Only No decisions have been made about school sites, timing or attendance zones Middle School Long Range Planning 41 Open Middle School #10 2023-24
42 Summary Middle School Long Range Plan New Middle Schools Projected to be Needed 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2015 Study MS #9 MS #10 2014 Study MS #9 MS #10 2013 Study 2012 Study MS #9 MS #9 MS #10 MS #10
43 Projected Resident 9 th -12 th Grade Students by 2016-17 High School Attendance Zone
44 Summary High School Long Range Plan New High Schools Projected to be Needed 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2015 Study Glenn HS HS #7 2014 Study HS #6 HS #7 2013 Study HS #6 HS #7 2012 Study HS #6 HS #7
Leander I.S.D. Demographic Update