THE DES MOINES REGISTER / BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL Study #2130 400 Republican likely caucusgoers December 7-10, 2015 404 Democratic likely caucusgoers 2,635 contacts weighted by age, sex, and Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans congressional district to conform to active voters Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats in the Iowa voter registration list Poll Questions PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING. Now, I m going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don t know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record don t know as not sure. Rotate list.) Among likely Republican caucusgoers Fav Unf Very Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida Dec-15 39 * 54 6 32 32 22 7 Oct-15 50 43 14 36 25 18 7 Aug-15 45 * 50 10 36 31 19 5 May-15 43 45 11 32 27 18 13 Jan-15 46 43 17 29 25 18 11 Oct-14 50 28 9 41 19 9 22 Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon Dec-15 72 22 28 44 13 9 6 Oct-15 84 12 53 31 7 5 4 Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from Maryland Sure Aug-15 79 8 46 33 6 2 13 May-15 56 15 24 32 10 5 29 Jan-15 50 12 28 22 9 3 38 Oct-14 41 8 24 17 4 4 51 Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey Dec-15 46 42 * 8 38 24 19 11 Oct-15 39 * 49 6 32 28 21 12 Aug-15 29 59 5 24 36 23 12 May-15 28 * 58 6 21 39 19 14 Jan-15 36 54 7 29 32 22 10 Oct-14 39 45 8 31 29 16 16 Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas Dec-15 73 19 * 43 30 12 6 9 Oct-15 61 26 28 33 15 11 13 Aug-15 61 24 29 32 17 7 15 May-15 59 20 20 39 13 7 21 Jan-15 58 21 22 36 14 7 21 Oct-14 52 18 20 32 11 7 30 Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett- Packard Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett- Packard and candidate for the U.S. Senate in California Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from South Carolina Dec-15 52 33 * 12 40 22 10 15 Oct-15 66 22 26 40 13 9 12 Aug-15 64 15 31 33 8 7 21 May-15 41 * 19 * 13 27 12 8 40 Jan-15 15 19 4 11 13 6 66 Dec-15 16 53 1 15 31 22 31 Oct-15 18 53 3 14 27 26 29 Aug-15 15 59 * 2 13 35 25 26 May-15 22 * 38 4 19 23 15 40 PAGE 1
Among likely Republican caucusgoers Fav Unf Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas Very Favorable Mostly Favorable Mostly Unfavorable Very Unfavorable Sure Dec-15 53 38 16 37 26 12 9 Oct-15 61 33 18 43 22 11 6 Aug-15 61 30 * 17 44 21 10 9 May-15 61 30 21 40 21 9 9 Jan-15 66 28 28 38 21 7 6 Oct-14 59 30 23 36 23 7 11 John Kasich, governor of Ohio Dec-15 19 46 5 14 31 15 34 Oct-15 31 * 33 * 8 22 22 12 36 Aug-15 33 * 22 10 22 17 5 45 May-15 25 16 * 7 18 11 4 59 Jan-15 22 14 7 15 10 4 64 Oct-14 17 7 3 14 5 2 76 Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky Dec-15 37 50 * 9 28 30 19 14 Oct-15 43 * 48 * 12 30 29 18 10 Aug-15 39 * 49 11 29 31 18 12 May-15 55 34 16 39 24 10 11 Jan-15 64 25 25 39 18 7 11 Oct-14 59 24 21 38 18 6 17 Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida Dec-15 70 21 24 46 15 6 9 Oct-15 70 * 20 26 43 12 8 10 Aug-15 67 20 24 43 15 5 13 May-15 60 17 20 40 12 5 23 Jan-15 57 20 16 41 15 5 23 Oct-14 54 16 14 40 12 4 30 Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania Donald Trump, a businessman from New York Donald Trump, businessman and television personality Dec-15 42 43 * 8 34 28 14 16 Oct-15 51 34 * 12 39 21 14 15 Aug-15 48 * 37 * 11 38 26 10 15 May-15 56 28 18 38 19 9 16 Jan-15 57 30 16 41 22 8 13 Oct-14 52 30 14 38 20 10 18 Dec-15 57 38 25 32 17 21 5 Oct-15 59 37 27 32 19 18 5 Aug-15 61 * 35 26 34 16 19 4 May-15 27 63 * 7 20 31 33 10 Jan-15 26 68 4 22 36 32 6 PAGE 2
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.) And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or sure in first choice question, code second choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.) First Second Combined Jeb Bush 6 5 11 Ben Carson 13 14 27 Chris Christie 3 3 6 Ted Cruz 31 20 51 Carly Fiorina 1 4 5 Jim Gilmore - - - Lindsey Graham - - - Mike Huckabee 3 5 8 John Kasich 2 2 4 George Pataki - - - Rand Paul 3 3 6 Marco Rubio 10 14 24 Rick Santorum 1 2 3 Donald Trump 21 14 35 Uncommitted (VOL only if respondent 3 3 says the word uncommitted. ) sure 4 4 No first choice 7 9a. Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.) 9b. And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or sure in Q.13a [AC=17,18], code Q.13b as No first choice [AC=19] and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.) Among likely Republican caucusgoers First Second Combined Jeb Bush Dec-15 6 5 11 Oct-15 5 5 10 Aug-15 6 4 10 May-15 9 7 16 Jan-15 8 7 15 Ben Carson Dec-15 13 14 27 Oct-15 28 19 47 Aug-15 18 14 32 May-15 10 5 15 Jan-15 9 10 19 Chris Christie Dec-15 3 3 6 Oct-15 1 2 3 Aug-15 2 1 3 May-15 4 4 8 Jan-15 4 3 7 Ted Cruz Dec-15 31 20 51 Oct-15 10 9 19 Aug-15 8 10 18 May-15 5 8 13 Jan-15 5 6 11 Carly Fiorina Dec-15 1 4 5 Oct-15 4 13 17 Aug-15 5 11 16 May-15 2 3 5 Jan-15 1 1 2 PAGE 3
First Second Combined Jim Gilmore Dec-15 - - - Oct-15 - - - Aug-15 - - - Lindsey Graham Dec-15 - - - Oct-15 - - - Aug-15 - - - May-15 1 1 2* Mike Huckabee Dec-15 3 5 8 Oct-15 3 3 6 Aug-15 4 4 8 May-15 9 8 17* Jan-15 10 7 17 John Kasich Dec-15 2 2 4 Oct-15 2 2 4 Aug-15 2 3 5 May-15 2 1 3 Jan-15 1 1 2 George Pataki Dec-15 - - - Oct-15 - - - Aug-15 - - - May-15-1 1 Rand Paul Dec-15 3 3 6 Oct-15 5 4 9 Aug-15 4 3 7 May-15 10 5 15 Jan-15 14 9 23 Marco Rubio Dec-15 10 14 24 Oct-15 9 11 20 Aug-15 6 8 14 May-15 6 12 18 Jan-15 3 8 11 Rick Santorum Dec-15 1 2 3 Oct-15 2 1 3 Aug-15 1 2 3 May-15 6 6 12 Jan-15 4 6 10 Donald Trump Dec-15 21 14 35 Oct-15 19 9 28 Aug-15 23 9 32 May-15 4 2 6 Uncommitted (VOL only if respondent says the word uncommitted. ) Jan-15 1 1 2 Dec-15 3 3 Oct-15 3 2 Aug-15 5 1 May-15 4 2 Jan-15 2 1 sure Dec-15 4 4 Oct-15 7 2 Aug-15 5 4 May-15 7 5 Jan-15 5 6 No first choice Dec-15 7 Oct-15 11 Aug-15 10 May-15 11 Jan-15 7 * Combined does not match the ever/never question below for certain candidates due to rounding. PAGE 4
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded. ) Among all Rep CGs Mind is made up Could still be persuaded sure Dec-15 n=400 ±4.9% pts 33 66 1 Oct-15 n=401 ±4.9% pts 22 78 1 When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded. ) Among Cruz supporters Mind is made up Could still be persuaded sure Dec-15 n=120 ±9.0% pts 43 55 2 Oct-15 n=36 ±16.6% pts 37 63 - When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded. ) Among Trump supporters Mind is made up Could still be persuaded sure Dec-15 n=86 ±10.6% pts 45 55 - Oct-15 n=80 ±11.0% pts 32 67 1 When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said No first choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded. ) Among Carson supporters Mind is made up Could still be persuaded sure Dec-15 n=49 ±14.1% pts 34 61 4 Oct-15 n=109 ±9.4% pts 15 83 1 Do you think you will have your mind made up at least a week before the caucus, or will you still be deciding the week leading up to the caucus? All Rep CGs n=400 ±4.9% pts Cruz supporters n=120 ±9.0% pts Trump supporters n=86 ±10.6% pts Carson supporters n=49 ±14.1% pts 33 43 45 34 Mind is already made up (Code only if mind is made up in previous question) 30 30 31 26 Will make mind up at least a week before the caucus 32 23 22 35 Will still be deciding the week leading up to the caucus 5 5 1 4 sure PAGE 5
(Asked only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice.) I m going to mention the candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If selected as first or second choice, code as 1 st or 2 nd choice and do not ask.) Among likely Republican caucusgoers Ever Never sure PAGE 6 1 st or 2 nd choice Jeb Bush Dec-15 45 41 3 11 Oct-15 48 40 2 10 Aug-15 50 39 2 9 May-15 38 35 10 16 Ben Carson Dec-15 55 17 2 26 Oct-15 41 10 3 47 Aug-15 50 12 6 32 May-15 47 18 20 15 Chris Christie Dec-15 51 40 3 7 Oct-15 45 48 4 3 Aug-15 44 48 5 3 May-15 34 45 13 8 Ted Cruz Dec-15 31 17 2 50 Oct-15 49 27 5 19 Aug-15 54 24 4 18 May-15 49 21 18 13 Carly Fiorina Dec-15 57 33 5 5 Oct-15 54 23 6 17 Aug-15 55 20 9 16 May-15 38 27 30 5 Jim Gilmore Dec-15 14 59 28 - Oct-15 17 59 24 - Aug-15 20 51 28 - Lindsey Graham Dec-15 29 61 9 - Oct-15 25 63 11 1 Aug-15 30 57 13 - May-15 29 43 25 3 Mike Huckabee Dec-15 57 32 3 8 Oct-15 60 31 3 6 Aug-15 60 28 4 8 May-15 51 24 9 16 John Kasich Dec-15 32 53 11 4 Oct-15 36 45 14 4 Aug-15 41 40 14 5 May-15 29 28 40 3 George Pataki Dec-15 19 66 15 - Oct-15 19 63 18 - Aug-15 26 57 17 - May-15 20 41 38 1 Rand Paul Dec-15 47 44 4 5 Oct-15 43 45 4 9 Aug-15 43 43 6 8 May-15 45 30 10 15 Marco Rubio Dec-15 56 19 2 23 Oct-15 55 20 5 20 Aug-15 60 19 6 15 May-15 49 18 15 18
Among likely Republican caucusgoers Ever Never sure 1 st or 2 nd choice Rick Santorum Dec-15 54 40 3 3 Oct-15 53 38 5 4 Aug-15 56 35 6 3 May-15 51 26 11 12 Donald Trump Dec-15 33 30 3 34 Oct-15 35 34 3 27 Aug-15 36 29 3 32 May-15 28 58 8 6 * Combined in the horserace question does not match 1 st /2 nd choice for certain candidates in the ever/never question due to rounding. All other things being equal, which of the following is a more attractive candidate for president at this time: (Read and rotate list.) Rep CG 19 A governor, who has worked with a legislature and who has been responsible for balancing a budget 30 A U.S. senator, who has involvement with national security and international relations and diplomatic issues 39 A government outsider who has handled complex issues and managed teams 12 sure I have some questions comparing just [BEN CARSON], [TED CRUZ], [MARCO RUBIO], and [DONALD TRUMP]. Which one do you think: (Rotate candidate names and rotate list.) Among likely Republican caucusgoers Carson Cruz Rubio Trump Has the best temperament to be president 23 34 25 11 7 Would be best at dealing with Vladimir Putin 10 31 13 34 13 Would work most effectively with Congress 18 31 29 12 10 Has the most appropriate life experience to be president 10 34 19 24 13 Knows the most about how to get things done 6 22 13 49 10 Cares the most about people like you 24 28 19 17 12 Has the right values to lead the nation 22 34 18 16 10 Would be best at managing the economy 7 24 10 50 8 Would do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem 5 22 15 50 8 Can best combat Islamic terrorism 5 32 13 35 16 Would make the best commander in chief 12 34 18 25 11 Would do the most to make all abortion illegal 23 32 7 6 32 Would be the best at reducing the federal deficit 6 27 10 48 10 Has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton 11 26 20 30 14 sure PAGE 7
Have you attended any events hosted by Republican candidates this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many different candidates have you attended at least one event? Rep CG 2 10 or more 1 8-9 1 6-7 4 4-5 9 2-3 9 One 73 No, have not attended any candidate events this season - sure Have you signed pledge cards for any Republican candidates in this caucus season? (If yes, ask:) For how many candidates have you signed pledge cards? Rep CG - 10 or more - 8-9 - 6-7 - 4-5 1 2-3 3 One 95 No, have not signed any pledge cards this caucus season - sure Do you consider yourself more of an establishment or anti-establishment Republican? Rep CG 29 Establishment 47 Anti-establishment 13 Neither (VOL) 11 sure Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to support: (Rotate list.) Rep CG 24 Tea party 32 Evangelical conservative 35 Mainstream Republican 10 sure PAGE 8
I m going to mention some stands on issues some candidates have taken. For each, please tell me if you agree or disagree with this position. (Rotate list.) Among likely Republican caucusgoers Agree Disagree Says climate change is a hoax 57 35 7 Wants to deport 11 million people living in the U.S. illegally 54 37 9 Wants to stop all U.S. resettlement of refugees from the civil war in Syria 67 25 9 Wants to make all abortion illegal, without exceptions for rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother 40 56 5 Supports a single-payer health care plan instead of the current law 49 35 16 Supports a tax reform plan that cuts taxes on every American, including the very wealthiest 74 21 4 Wants to send at least 20,000 troops to fight the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria 61 28 11 Wants to repeal financial reform laws enacted after the banking crisis in 2008 58 20 22 Would be willing to shoot down Russian planes if they violated a no-fly zone in Syria 44 41 15 Wants to abolish the Internal Revenue Service 61 31 8 Compared to: Study #2128 October 16-19, 2015 401 Republican likely caucusgoers 2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and 402 Democratic likely caucusgoers congressional district to conform to active voters Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for each party in the Iowa voter registration list Study #2125 August 23-26, 2015 400 Republican likely caucusgoers 2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans congressional district to conform to active voters 404 Democratic likely caucusgoers in the Iowa voter registration list Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats Study #2122 June 19-22, 2015 401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa 1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters in the Iowa voter registration list Study #2118 May 25-29, 2015 402 Republican likely caucusgoers 4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans congressional district to conform to active voters 437 Democratic likely caucusgoers in the Iowa voter registration list Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats Study #2113 January 26-29, 2015 402 Republican likely caucusgoers 3,813 contacts weighted by age, sex, and 401 Democratic likely caucusgoers congressional district to conform to active voters Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for each party in the Iowa voter registration list Study #2104 October 1-7, 2014 425 Republican likely caucusgoers 3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform 426 Democratic likely caucusgoers to active voters in Iowa voter registration list Margin of error: ± 4.8 percentage points for each party Sure PAGE 9
About the Poll The Iowa Poll, conducted December 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 400 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 404 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses. Interviewers contacted 2,635 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list. Questions based on the subsamples of 404 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 400 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents such as by gender or age have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited. PAGE 10