Table 1 Proportions of Freshman Applicants to Selected US News and World Reports 2004 Top 25 National Universities in 1997, 2013, and 2016 That Enrolled at Each Institution Harvard.10/.05/.04 Princeton.09/.05/.04 Yale.11/.05/.04 Stanford.09/.04/.04 Cornell.16/.08/.07 Duke.12/.06/.05 Pennsylvania.14/.08/.06 Cal. Tech..07/.05/.03 Brown.10/.05/.05 Columbia.09/.04/.04 Dartmouth.10/.05/.05 Johns Hopkins.12/.06/.05 Emory.12/.08/.07 Washington (St. Louis).09/.05/.06 Source: Author s calculations from data provided by the institutions on their world wide web pages for 1997. Data for 2013 and 2016 are from U.S. News & World Reports web pages in June 2015 and June 2018.
Figure 1 Let APP = number of applicants ACC= number of admitted students (accepted applicants) ENR = number of enrolled students Then (ENR/APP) = (ACC/APP)*(ENR/ACC) Enrollment/Applicant Ratio = Acceptance Rate times Yield
Table 2 Proportions of Freshman Applicants to Selected US News and World Reports 1999, 2004 and 2016 Top 25 National Universities and Colleges That Were Accepted at Each Institution University Acceptance Rate Yield in 2016 1999/2004/2016 Harvard.13/.11 /.05.79 Princeton.13/.12 /.07.68 Yale.18/.14/.06.69 Stanford.15/.13/.05.82 Cornell.34/.27/.14.52 Duke.30/.26/.11.50 Pennsylvania.31/.22/.09.68 Cal. Tech..23/.15/.08.42 Brown.18/.16/.09.56 Columbia.17/.12/.06.62 Dartmouth.22/.23/.11.51 Johns Hopkins.41/.34/.12.40 Emory.46/.43/.25.26 Wash (St Louis).40/.23/.17.37 Acceptance rates and yields are from USNWR and reflect classes enrolling in the fall of 2 years earlier. The yield data were obtained from USNWR web pages in June 2016. Yields will be higher, ceteris paribus, the greater the share of applicants accepted early decision.
Table 2a ACCEPTANCE RATES FOR THE CLASS OF 2022 CORNELL 10.3 DARTMOUTH 8.7 NORTHWESTERN 8.4 PENNSYLVANIA 8.4 VANDERBILT 7.3 BROWN 7.2 DUKE 6.4 YALE 6.3 PRINCETON 5.5 COLUMBIA 5.5 HARVARD 4.6 STANFORD 4.3 SOURCE: Collegevine.com (May 1, 2018) for all institutions except for Cornell. Cornell datum is from the Cornell Chronicle (March 28, 2018)
GENERIC NEED BASED FINANCIAL AID EXAMPLE TOTAL COST $60,000 -EXP. FAM. CONT. $23,000 -EXTERNAL GRANTS $ 5,000 STUDENT S NEED $32,000 MET WITH 1) WORK (school year) $2,000 2) LOAN $4,000 3) INSTITUTIONAL GRANT $26,000 Notes Expected Family contribution is based on family assets, family income, family size, student s expected summer earnings, number of other siblings in college etc. External grants include federal, state, and all other external Actual Cornell Policies Will Be Discussed in a Few Minutes
2017-2018 Ivy League Tuition And Mandatory Fee Levels Institution Tuition and Fee Level Columbia 57,208 3.9 Pennsylvania 53,534 4.0 Brown 53,419 4.0 Dartmouth 53,368 3.8 Yale 51,400 3.9 Cornell 50,953 3.7 Harvard 48,949 4.0 Princeton 47,140 4.0 Range $10,068 Range/Min 21.4% Percentage Increase
Table 3 Comparison and Analysis of Private Research Universities New Financial Aid Policies: Estimated Net Cost of Attendance by Family Income Level 2009-2010 Institution Family Income 20k Family Income 40K Family Income 60K Family Income 80K Family Income 120K Family Income 160K Total Cost of Attend. Brown 4850 4850 12809 18500 36795 52030 52030 Columbia 5190 5190 12812 18228 32967 49920 54294 Cornell 4120 5659 11742 20158 34897 A 52414 Dartmouth 5150 6990 13580 19657 36151 50547 52973 Harvard 3700 3700 4000 8000 16000 20000 52000 MIT 1900 3559 12844 20422 36109 51728 51728 Northwest. 4500 6113 A A A A 53984 Princeton 4400 5956 12292 18050 33859 50620 50620 Stanford 4500 4500 12930 15682 34473 50992 50992 Wash. U 3800 5504 a a a a 58692 Yale 3800 3800 4400 6467 15800 19800 51575 Source: The Project on Student Debt, What s the Bottom Line? (June 2012) (http://projectonstudentdebt.org ). Net cost is amount students and their families are expected to contribute from income, savings, work by the student and loans. a - project could not calculate amount from the available information provided by the institution
TABLE 3A ANNUAL AVERAGE COST OF ATTENDANCE FOR A RECENT YEAR FOR FINANCIAL AID RECIPIENTS FROM THE COLLEGE SCORECARD DATA BASE Institution Average Cost 2015 Endowment Per Student (millions) Brown $27,426 0.335 Columbia $21,051 0.323 Cornell $29,211 0.276 Dartmouth $29,986 0.740 Harvard $17,882 1.736 Pennsylvania $23,225 0.476 Princeton $8,818 2.809 Yale $20,910 1.073 The correlation between average cost of attendance and endowment per student is -0.87. Why?
Table 4 FINANCIAL AID GRANT DOLLARS FOR UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS AT CORNELL UNIVERSITY (in millions of dollars) Source 1987-1988 2018-2019 (plan) Ave. Annual % Change Federal Gov. 5.143 14.00 3.3% State Gov. a 4.903 6.400 0.9% Other External 2.663 17.500 6.3% Total External 12.709 37.900 3.6% Total Cornell 20.251 267.966 8.7% Cornell Share of 0.618 0.876 1.1% Total Grant Aid Number of 12,958 14,907 0.5% Undergraduates Number Receiving 3,815 6,822 1.9% CU Grant Aid Share Receiving.294.460 1.5% CU Grant Aid Average Cornell Grant Per Recipient $5,308 $39,279 6.7% Source: Cornell University Fiscal 2019 Operating and Capital: Budget Plan, May 2018, Appendix Table I (and author s calculations) a Slow rate of growth of state share reflects both slow growth of NYS program and the dramatic decline in the share of Cornell undergraduates that were NYS residents during the period
Table 5 Cumulative and Annual Percentage Changes in Prices, Income, and Cornell Tuition and Fees during the 1986-2016 Period Cumulative Annual 1) Consumer Price Index 118.49 2.6 2) Mean Family Income (level in 2016) a) lowest quintile ($18,202) 121.0 2.7 b) second quintile ($44,943) 136.3 2.9 c) third quintile ($72,904) 147.4 3.1 d) fourth quintile ($111,249) 164.2 3.3 e) fifth quintile ($239,486) 215.8 3.9 f) top 5 percent of the family 262.2 4.4 income distribution ($417,090) 3) Endowed Cornell Tuition 343.1 4.96 Consumer Price Index and Mean Family Income are for calendar year. Cornell Tuition is for the academic years 1986-87 and 2016-17. Until the 2008 economic decline, the top 5% mean family income grew at a rate greater than tuition.
PREFERENTIAL PACKAGING EXAMPLE STUDENT NEED = $30,000 ALL STUDENTS ARE DESIRABLE TO THE UNIVERSITY BUT SOME ARE RATED MORE DESIRABLE (1) (2) (3) WORK $1,500 $1,500 $1,500 LOAN $1,500 $5,500 $9,500 GRANT $27,000 $23,000 $19,000
Ehrenberg and Sherman, Optimal Financial Aid Policies for a Selective University, Journal of Human Resources (Spring 1984) This paper presents a model of a university seeking to maximize its utility from enrolling students who belong to different groups (legacy/academic ability/athletics/racial/ethnic) by allocating different financial aid packages across students with the same need in different groups. The groups differ in how much the university prefers members from each group, the propensity of students to enroll without financial aid, the sensitivity of enrollment decisions to financial aid, and how rapidly the average quality of members of the group fall of as you admit more of them. The model proves to be one of a discriminating monopolist and its key implications are: 1. If preferences for members of one group are higher than preferences for members of a second group, the university should give aid to members of the first group, other factors held constant. 2. If members of one group have a higher probability of enrolling in the absence of aid than members of a second group, the university should give aid to members of the first group, other factors held constant. 3. If members of one group s enrollment decisions are more sensitive to price than the members of a second group s enrollment decisions, the university should give aid to members of the first group, other factors held constant. 4. If the average quality of members of one group falls off more rapidly than the average quality of members of a second group as we expand admissions of the groups, the university should give aid to members of the first group, other factors held constant.
CORNELL S UNDERGRADUATE FINANCIAL AID POLICIES 2009-2010 No parental contributions for students with families with incomes below $60,000 and assets below $100,000 No loans for families with incomes below $75,000 Loans capped annually at $3,000 for families with incomes between $75,000 and $120,000 Loans capped annually at $7,500 for families who have financial need and incomes over $120,000 Reduce the parental contributions for selected students who have financial need and whose family incomes are above $60,000 preferential packaging now takes place here and in the Cornell Commitment Cornell Commitment (Cornell Tradition, Rawlings Research Scholars, Meinig Family Cornell National Scholars)- Depending upon the program provides 1. Research Funding 2. Summer Living Expenses 3. Funding to Offset Expected Summer Earnings CHANGES FOR 2010 2011 AND WHY THEY WERE MADE Ivy League Match and Strive to meet offers from Duke, MIT, and Stanford (Why the Difference?) CHANGES FOR 2013-2014 AND WHY THEY WERE MADE These apply only to new, incoming students in 2013-14 and thereafter Family Income ($) Annual Loan Cap Share of Recipients <60,000* 0 34% 60,000-75,000 2,500 10% 75,000-120,000 5,000 27% >120,000 7,500 19% *no parental contribution if family assets less than $100,000.
CHANGES FOR 2018-2019 AND WHY THEY WERE MADE These apply only to new, incoming students in 2018-19 and thereafter Family Income ($) Annual Loan Cap <60,000* 0 60,000-85,000 2,500 85,000-135,000 5,000 >135,000 7,500 *no parental contribution if family assets less than $100,000.
NATIONAL MERIT SCHOLAR WINNERS AT TOP NATIONAL PRIVATE UNIVERSITIES IN FALL 2016 University Number Paid for by Not Paid for Institution by Institution Chicago 259 171 88 USC 257 197 60 Harvard 219 0 219 Vanderbilt 219 176 43 Northwestern 200 161 39 Stanford 168 0 168 MIT 156 0 156 Yale 156 0 156 Princeton 123 0 123 Pennsylvania 112 0 112 Duke 98 0 98 Brown 87 0 87 CORNELL 76 0 76 Columbia 68 0 68 Rice 57 0 57 Notre Dame 48 0 48 Emory 47 37 10 Johns Hopkins 45 0 45 Boston U 42 38 4 Dartmouth 41 0 41 WashU (StL) 38 0 38 Tufts 36 29 7 Georgetown 35 0 35 Rochester 27 23 4 Brandeis 17 11 6 NYU 12 0 12 Source: National Merit Scholarship Corporation 2016-2017 Annual Report (October 2017)
Early Decision Enrollees as a Share of New First Year Enrollees at Ivy League Institutions for the Class of 2019 Institution Share Early Decision USNWR Rank Brown.38 14 Columbia.43 5 Cornell.38 15 Dartmouth.42 11 Harvard EA 2 Pennsylvania.54 8 Princeton EA 1 Yale EA 3 EA = early action Source: USNWR s web pages (June 2017) (The correlation between the share admitted early decision and USNWR is -0.6.)
Estimated Percentage of Students that Would Chose to Attend Cornell Instead of the Alternative Institution Percentage That Would Chose Cornell Over the Institution Brown 24 Columbia 29 Dartmouth 33 Harvard 3 Princeton 10 Pennsylvania 37 Yale 11 Stanford 15 MIT 15 Duke 66 Georgetown 65 Northwestern 75 Tufts 88 Berkeley 77 UCLA 86 Virginia 68 Based upon a survey of 3,200 top students at 500 high schools across the nation as reported at www.nytimes.com on September 17, 2006