TOPICS POPULATION PLACES ECONOMIC SECTORS JOBS TRAINING RESOURCES GOVERNMENT 2
PEOPLE 3
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US AND NC POPULATION GROWTH RATES 15 10 5 0 % points -5-10 -15-20 -25-30 -35 4
COMPONENTS OF NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH 80 70 60 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s births-deaths net in-migration immigration 5
NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION PROJECTIONS NUMBER (MILLIONS) % OF TOTAL 2010 2030 2050 2010 2030 2050 Total Population 9.6 11.6 13.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 Under 18 2.3 2.4 2.6 23.9 20.5 19.5 18-24 1.0 1.1 1.2 9.9 9.4 9.0 25-44 2.6 3.0 3.2 26.9 26.1 24.1 45-64 2.5 2.8 3.5 26.3 24.1 26.1 65&+ 1.2 2.3 2.9 13.0 19.9 21.3 6
FORECASTED DEPENDENCY RATIOS (%) 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 NC 2010 2030 2050 US 7
PLACES 8
COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH: 1970 TO 2010 ALLEGHANY ASHE CASWELL VANCE NORTHAMPTON GATES CAMDEN SURRY STOKES PERSON WARREN HERTFORD CURRITUCK WATAUGA WILKES ROCKINGHAM GRANVILLE HALIFAX PASQUOTANK YADKIN FORSYTH ALAMANCE BERTIE PERQUIMANS AVERY GUILFORD DURHAM FRANKLIN NASH CHOWAN MITCHELL CALDWELL ORANGE MADISON YANCEY ALEXANDER DAVIE EDGECOMBE TYRRELL IREDELL DAVIDSON MARTIN BURKE RANDOLPH CHATHAM WAKE WASHINGTON BUNCOMBE MCDOWELL CATAWBA ROWAN WILSON DARE SWAIN HAYWOOD PITT BEAUFORT LEE JOHNSTON RUTHERFORD LINCOLN GREENE HYDE GRAHAM JACKSON HENDERSON CLEVELAND CABARRUS MONTGOMERY HARNETT POLK GASTON STANLY MOORE WAYNE CRAVEN TRANSYLVANIA MECKLENBURG LENOIR CHEROKEE MACON PAMLICO CLAY RICHMOND CUMBERLAND JONES UNION ANSON HOKE SAMPSON DUPLIN SCOTLAND ROBESON ONSLOW CARTERET BLADEN PENDER 100% or above growth COLUMBUS BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER 50% to 99% growth 0% to 49% growth population loss 9
COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH 2010-2050 population loss DARE CURRITUCK HYDE TYRRELL CAMDEN PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS CHOWAN GATES WASHINGTON CARTERET PAMLICO BEAUFORT BERTIE HERTFORD MARTIN CRAVEN PITT JONES ONSLOW NORTHAMPTON LENOIR GREENE NEW EDGECOMBE HALIFAX HANOVER NASH DUPLIN PENDER WILSON WAYNE WARREN BRUNSWICK FRANKLIN VANCE SAMPSON JOHNSTON BLADEN WAKE GRANVILLE COLUMBUS DURHAM HARNETT CUMBERLAND PERSON LEE HOKE ORANGE ROBESON CHATHAM CASWELL ALAMANCE MOORE SCOTLAND RICHMOND RANDOLPH GUILFORD ROCKINGHAM MONTGOMERY ANSON STANLY FORSYTH DAVIDSON STOKES SURRY DAVIE UNION ROWAN CABARRUS YADKIN IREDELL MECKLENBURG WILKES ALLEGHANY GASTON CATAWBA LINCOLN ALEXANDER ASHE CALDWELL BURKE WATAUGA CLEVELAND AVERY MCDOWELL RUTHERFORD POLK YANCEY MITCHELL HENDERSON BUNCOMBE MADISON TRANSYLVANIA HAYWOOD JACKSON MACON SWAIN CLAY GRAHAM 0% to 34% growth 35% to 69% growth 70% or above growth CHEROKEE 10
US MEGA-REGIONS 2012 11
OR, COULD A RURAL RENAISSANCE OCCUR? VIRTUALIZATION E-COMMERCE + DRONE DELIVERY DRIVERLESS TRANSPORT METRO TIPPING POINT 12
ECONOMIC SECTORS 13
FORCES SHAPING THE ECONOMIC FUTURE AGING POPULATION TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION AND IMPLEMENTATION SHIFT OF INFLUENCE TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SHIFTS IN TASTES AND PREFERENCES ALTERNATIVE ENERGY 14
FOUR SECTORS TO WATCH FOR FUTURE GROWTH TECHNOLOGY TOURISM AGRIBUSINESS RETIREMENT 15
JOBS 16
BIG QUESTION: IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT? FARMING TO MANUFACTURING MANUFACTURING TO SERVICES SERVICES TO WHAT? 1,000,000 NEW JOBS IN 2050 OR 460,000 LESS? 17
WHERE ARE THE NEW JOBS? DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENACE OF NEW TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL INTERACTION LOGISTICS AND DATA MANAGEMENT/ANALYSIS AGED ASSISTANCE EDUCATION/RE-TRAINING SOCIAL INTERACTION ARTISANSHIP 18
TRAINING 19
21 ST CENTURY EDUCATION SYSTEM K-12: COLLEGE TRACK EMPLOYMENT TRACK TECHNICAL COLLEGE INTERACTION WITH JOB MARKET INTERACTION WITH HIGH SCHOOL CORE COLLEGE ADVANCED COLLEGE RENEWAL EDUCATION 20
MUST CLOSELY MONITOR JOB CHANGE AND EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS WILL NEED TO RAPIDLY REDEPLOY RESOURCES 21
RESOURCES 22
SEA INVASION 23
NORTH CAROLINA WATER USAGE EFFICIENCY gallons 1500 1450 1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 gallons per $ 1150 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 daily gals. per person daily gals. per GDP 2015 $ 0 24
US AND NC ENERGY CONSUMPTION millions of BTUs per person 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 NC per capita US per capita NC per $ GDP US per $ GDP 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 thousands of BTUs per GDP dollar 25
CURRENT AND FUTURE NC POWER SOURCES Power Source 2014 2050 Coal 19.6% 15.7% Nuclear 16.8% 12.6% Oil 31.3% 34.6% Natural Gas 18.0% 24.3% Hydro 1.8% 1.5% Renewable 6.1% 11.3% 26
GOVERNMENT 27
THE COMING GENERATIONAL SQUEEZE? 6 5 4 % OF GDP 3 2 1 0 1950 1980 2010 2050 Education Transportation Health care 28
OTHER PUBLIC ISSUES UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICY STATE PENSION SYSTEM TAX SYSTEM 29
NEHRU ONCE SAID: LIFE IS LIKE A GAME OF CARDS. THE HAND YOU ARE DEALT IS DETERMINISM; THE WAY YOU PLAY THE HAND IS FREE WILL. 30