The Higher Education Challenges Facing Texas

The Higher Education Challenges Facing Texas TAB Higher Education Summit Austin, TX December 10, 2013 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

Closing the Gaps A Success Story Slide 2 In 2000, established a goal of 210,000 annual undergraduate credentials by 2015 That goal was achieved ahead of schedule: 237,000 in 2012

Texas Healthy Business Environment Has Become a Major Contributor to Our Educational Attainment Goals. Slide 3

Nevada Washington Arizona Texas Oregon North Carolina Virginia South Carolina Delaware Georgia New Mexico Maryland Florida Colorado California Hawaii Arkansas Tennessee Kentucky Oklahoma Massachusetts Alabama New Hampshire New Jersey Illinois Connecticut Wyoming Kansas New York Iowa Minnesota Pennsylvania Montana Nebraska Missouri Maine Utah South Dakota Indiana Rhode Island Idaho Wisconsin Ohio North Dakota Vermont Mississippi West Virginia Michigan Louisiana Alaska -32.3-5.9-7.5-7.8-1.2-2.3-2.8-3.0-3.3 22.9 21.1 21.0 19.4 19.0 17.7 17.7 15.3 15.2 14.4 14.1 13.2 12.2 12.2 10.1 9.9 9.2 8.7 8.5 7.5 6.9 6.4 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.4 4.6 4.5 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 1.6 0.7 Migration Rates of College Graduates: Net Migration of 22 64 Year Olds with College Degrees (Average Annual from 2006-2010) 30.00 Slide 4 20.00 10.00 0.00-10.00-20.00-30.00-40.00 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006-10 American Community Survey (ACS) Five-Year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File. Note1: Data include in-migrants from U.S. territories and foreign countries. Out migrants to foreign countries cannot be accounted for. Note2: Migration rate is defined as net migrants per 1000 population.

Texas Has Benefitted From Importing College- Educated Residents Net Annual Migration by Degree Level for 22 to 64 Year Olds (Average from 2009-11) Slide 5 60,000 50,000 50,199 40,000 30,000 35,621 33,226 30,141 26,078 20,000 11,969 10,000 0 Less than High School High School Graduate Some College, No Degree Associates Bachelors Graduate Source: U.S. Census Bureau; ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files

While the Closing the Gaps 2015 Goal seemed audacious at the time, current evidence suggests that the bar was set too low. Far too low. Slide 6

Comparing Texas with Nations and Other States in the Percentage of Young Adult Degree Attainment (Ages 25-34) U.S. States % OECD Country Korea (65.0) 60 58 56 Japan, Canada Massachusetts 54 North Dakota 52 Minnesota New York 50 New Jersey 48 Ireland New Hampshire Norway Connecticut Iowa 46 New Zealand, United Kingdom Virginia Illinois Maryland South Dakota Pennsylvania Nebraska Colorado Vermont 44 Australia, Luxembourg, Israel, Belgium Rhode Island Kansas France Montana Wisconsin 42 UNITED STATES, Sweden Washington Netherlands, Switzerland Missouri Hawaii 40 Wyoming Maine Delaware Utah Finland, Spain, Chile Ohio California Oregon 38 Estonia, Denmark Michigan North Carolina Poland Indiana Florida South Carolina 36 Iceland Georgia Alaska Kentucky Tennessee 34 Arizona Mississippi Texas Alabama Idaho 32 Louisiana Slovenia, Greece Oklahoma Arkansas West Virginia 30 Source: 2012 OECD Education at a Glance; 2010 American Community Survey Slide 7 Nevada 28 New Mexico 26 Germany, Hungary Portugal 24 Slovak Rep Czech Rep 22 Mexico Austria, Italy 20 Turkey (17.4)

12.8 12.0 16.2 16.3 18.3 21.5 21.7 21.8 26.7 29.0 27.3 29.8 30.0 29.6 33.4 33.8 35.2 34.8 33.8 32.6 34.1 33.1 34.9 39.1 42.3 41.0 40.6 39.5 42.2 42.5 48.2 47.3 46.4 46.0 44.4 42.9 42.3 43.4 40.0 41.0 46.9 45.8 46.8 49.6 56.7 56.5 56.8 65.0 Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group Texas, Mexico, U.S. & Leading OECD Countries, 2010 Slide 8 70.0 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Korea Japan Canada Ireland Norway New Zealand United Kingdom Australia France United States Mexico Texas Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2012, U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File

The New Goal Slide 9 At least 60% of Texans will have a postsecondary credential, certificate, or degree of value in the workplace by 2030 THECB, State of Higher Education Address, 2013 This goal is very audacious given where Texas currently is. But is the bar high enough?

ND MN MA CO WA NE UT MD HI CT IL KS VA NH NJ OR NY AK MI WY MT VT IA SD WI ID RI CA AZ NC ME FL MO DE GA NM OH PA OK TX SC AL IN NV TN MS KY AR LA WV 49 51 52 54 54 54 54 55 55 56 56 57 57 57 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 61 61 61 61 61 62 62 62 62 62 62 63 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 65 66 66 66 67 67 68 70 70 Percentage of Jobs in 2018 that Will Require a Postsecondary Education, by State Slide 10 75 70 65 National Average = 63% 60 55 50 45 Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018; June 2010

Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2009) The Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and the State New Economy Index (2010) Slide 11 55 High College Attainment, Low Personal Income High College Attainment, High Personal Income MA 48 41 34 27 VT ND HI NE IA KS UT OR MT ME SD DE NC WI US PA GA FL SC AZ OH MI ID NM MO IN TX AL TN OK KY NV MS LA AR WV CO MN NH VA RI WA IL CA AK CT NY MD NJ WY State New Economy Index 2010 Top Tier Middle Tier Bottom Tier Low College Attainment, Low Personal Income Low College Attainment, High Personal Income 20 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 Personal Income per Capita (2010) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Kauffman Foundation

Texas Personal Income per Capita as a Percent of the U.S. Average, (1980-2011) Slide 12 110 100 97.8 96.4 94.0 93.7 94.5 95.0 90 89.2 90.6 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

State New Economy Index Texas s Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths (Top 10) Manufacturing Value-Added (10 th ) Export Focus of Manufacturing & Services (1 st ) Entrepreneurial Activity (7 th ) Weaknesses (Bottom 10) Workforce Education (41 st ) Immigration of Knowledge Workers (46 th ) Non-Industry Investment in R&D (41 st ) Source: The Kauffman Foundation Slide 13

What are the barriers to achieving this goal? Demographics Slide 14

Projected Change in Texas Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2010-30 Slide 15 2,000,000 White African American Hispanic / Latino 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,191,767 1,445,090 1,433,719 1,291,243 1,062,750 1,000,000 750,000 500,000 250,000 52,947 22,506 512,100 157,802 182,325 356,570 - (250,000) (500,000) (750,000) (202,298) (96,448) (19,448) Age 0-17 Age 18-24 Age 25-44 Age 25-64 Age 65+ (520,195) Source: Texas State Data Center, Office of the State Demographer

Texas New Mexico California Florida Nevada Mississippi Georgia Arizona Maryland Louisiana South Carolina Illinois New York New Jersey Delaware North Carolina Nation Alabama Colorado Virginia Connecticut Arkansas Tennessee Rhode Island Michigan Kansas Massachusetts Oklahoma Washington Pennsylvania Oregon Nebraska Indiana Missouri Ohio Wisconsin Idaho Utah Hawaii Minnesota Kentucky Wyoming Iowa Alaska South Dakota New Hampshire West Virginia Montana North Dakota Maine Vermont Percent of 0 to 24 Year Olds Who are Black or Hispanic (2011) Slide 16 70 60 59.5 50 40 36.8 30 20 10 0 4.3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Population Distribution by Race/Ethnicity (Total and K-12) Slide 17 Total Population 2009 Public Elementary and Secondary Students 2010-11 60 50 46.7 50.3 40 36.9 30 31.2 20 10 11.3 12.9 5.0 5.6 0 White Hispanic Black Other Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Education Statistics

9 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 27 27 28 32 Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities,* 2009-11 Slide 18 13 14 14 Vermont West Virginia Maine Kentucky Tennessee Arkansas Oklahoma Missouri Florida Ohio Alabama Indiana Louisiana Montana Mississippi Georgia Michigan New Hampshire Wyoming Hawaii Pennsylvania South Dakota Delaware North Dakota Maryland South Carolina North Carolina Nevada Virginia Nation Alaska Iowa Wisconsin Oregon Kansas Washington Minnesota Texas Illinois Idaho Arizona New Jersey New York Rhode Island Massachusetts Utah Nebraska New Mexico Connecticut Colorado California 35 30 25 20 15 15 16 17 18 21 22 22 23 23 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 29 32 10 5 3 4 9 0 * Minorities include African-American, Hispanic, and Native American Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-11 ACS (PUMS)

Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities Aged 25-64, 2009-11 Slide 19 Percent with Associate Degree or Higher Whites Minorities Difference Texas 44.5% 20.1% 24.4 U.S. 43.3% 22.8% 20.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-11 ACS (PUMS)

Educational Attainment of Population by Percentage Age 25-64 by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2009-2011 Slide 20 40 35 37.7 White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Hispanic 30 25 23.6 29.8 26.7 25.8 30.5 25.0 20 18.5 15 10 5 6.1 11.2 8.0 8.0 4.9 14.1 9.0 11.6 6.4 3.3 0 Less Than High School High School Graduate or Equivalency Some College, No Degree Associates Degree Bachelors Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-11 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File.

Student Pipeline by Race/Ethnicity - Transition Rates from 8th Grade to College Completion Slide 21 100 90 93.9 91.6 92.4 Of Fall 2001 8 th Graders, How Many. White Black Hispanic 80 76.2 70 60 64.5 61.9 61.3 50 40 48.6 40.8 30 27.8 20 10 11.2 11.6 0 Enrolled in 9th Grade Texas Public High School Graduate Enrolled in Higher Education (Anytime after High School Graduation) Completed a Higher Education Degree or Certificate by 2011 Source: THECB, TEA, and NSC (National Student Clearinghouse), 1/15/2013 Out-of-state graduate total not shown, because current NSC data collection extends only into 2006.

What are the barriers to achieving this goal? Economic Barriers Slide 22

Percent of Texas Families with Children 17 & Younger by Income Quartile Slide 23 Source: US Census Bureau: American Community Survey

Student Pipeline by Economic Disadvantage - Transition Rates from 8th Grade to College Completion Of Fall 2001 8 th Graders, How Many. Slide 24 100 90 80 94 92 Not Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged 78 70 60 59 64 50 40 37 30 28 20 10 9 0 Enrolled in 9th Grade Texas Public High School Graduate Enrolled in Higher Education (Anytime after High School Graduation) Completed a Higher Education Degree or Certificate by 2011 Source: THECB, TEA, and NSC (National Student Clearinghouse), 1/15/2013 Out-of-state graduate total not shown, because current NSC data collection extends only into 2006.

The Net Effect Slide 25 Too few students entering college Too few students successfully completing college A high cost per degree produced

High School Graduation, College Participation, & Completion (2011-12) Slide 26 Texas U.S. Average of Top 5 States 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 86 78 86.8 Input Rates 63.4 57.64 74.4 30 25 20 15 Throughput Rates Undergraduate Credentials and Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates 17.1 15.1 26.0 25.5 25.6 21.9 21.1 23.1 22.5 30 10 20 10 6.1 7.5 10.1 5 0 High School Graduation Rate ('11) College-Going rate Directly Out of High School Participation of 25 to 49 Year Olds as a Percent of 25-49 Year Olds with Less than a Bachelors 0 Public Two-Year Public Bachelors & Masters Public Research Source: NCES, IPEDS 2011-12 Instructional Activity File; NCES, IPEDS 2011-12 Completions File US Dept. Of Ed (HS Graduation Rates)

Florida Colorado Missouri Utah South Dakota Louisiana Montana Nevada Arkansas Washington Mississippi Virginia Georgia West Virginia New Hampshire Oklahoma Kansas Minnesota Tennessee Kentucky North Dakota Iowa Nation Alabama Arizona South Carolina Idaho Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Illinois Texas Maine California Indiana Ohio Wisconsin New York Oregon Pennsylvania North Carolina New Mexico Rhode Island New Jersey Hawaii Nebraska Vermont Delaware Wyoming Connecticut D.C Alaska 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 3.0 2.9 Degrees per $100,000 of State & Local Appropriations and Tuition & Fees Revenues, 2010, Public Total Slide 27 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2010 Completions File; c2005_a, c2009_a, and c2010_a Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2009-10 Finance Files; f0405_f1a, f0405_f2, f0809_f1a, f0809_f2 F Final Release Data Files; f0910_f1a, f0910_f2 Early Release Data Files Downloaded 10-11-11. U.S. Census Bureau, 2005, 2009, and 2010 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files.

The Consequences of Inaction Slide 28

Projected Change in Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds (with Same Attainment Rates by Race/Ethnicity) Slide 29 30 25 24.925.2 23.3 22.9 20.8 20 17.8 18.4 16.9 15 2011 2030 10 6.8 6.5 8.7 7.8 5 0 Less than High School High School Graduate or GED Some College No Degree Associate s Degree Bachelor s Degree Graduate or Professional Degree Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2011 American Community Survey (PUMS)

Projected Change in Personal Income per Capita per 25 to 64 Year Old Resident (with Same Attainment Rates by Race/Ethnicity) Slide 30 45000 40000 35000 39,593 37,106 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 2011 2030 Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2011 American Community Survey (PUMS)

Change in State Revenues and State Expenditures ($) as a Result of Not Improving Educational Attainment Among Black and Hispanics (Year 2030 Estimates) Slide 31 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 575,664,605 254,512,050 0 0-500,000,000-690,727,473-1,000,000,000-1,500,000,000 State Income Tax Revenues Sales Tax Revenues -1,335,450,668 Property Tax Revenues Medicaid Expenditures Corrections Expenditures Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2009 American Community Survey (PUMS), 2008-10 Current Population Survey (PUMS)

Narrowing Disparity Between Whites and Minorities Must be the Priority Slide 32

What will it take? Slide 33 Successfully educating many more minorities Successfully educating many more adults Strategies for ensuring that college is affordable.

Educational Attainment By Degree of Entry Delay: General Trends 60 % degrees attained 60 Slide 34 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 Degree of entry delay BA Degree of entry delay AA BA Certificate AA No degree Certificate No degree 10 10 0 0 0 delay 0-1 year delay 1-4 year delay > 5 year delay 0 delay 0-1 year delay 1-4 year delay > 5 year delay Source: BPS-96 survey.

What has to be done? Slide 35 1. Consensus about the goal and commitment by leaders in all sectors to achieve that goal Government Business Education 2. A roadmap for creating the necessary capacity to serve many more students capacity aligned with needs/preferences of different subpopulations More institutions? Larger institutions? What types of institutions? Where? Alternative delivery modes? 3. Strategy for paying the bill Appropriations to institutions Tuition and fees Need-based aid Productivity improvements