Economic and Social Outlook Conference Bill Daniels Executive Director, Independent Schools Council of Australia (ISCA) University of Melbourne 30 June 2011
Enrolment share by sector 1970 to 2010 100% 90% 78% 78% 72% 69% 80% 70% 60% 65% 50% 40% 30% 20% 18% 18% 20% 20% 20% 10% 0% 14% 11% 8% 4% 5% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Independent Catholic Government
Enrolments Enrolment change by sector 1985-2010 350,000 300,000 250,000 Grew by 289,519 students 200,000 150,000 100,000 Grew by 139,667 students 50,000 0 Grew by 51,524 students Government Catholic Independent Source: ABS Schools Australia data
Secondary enrolment share by capital city Canberra 16% 29% 55% Darwin 17% 14% 69% Greater Hobart 20% 23% 57% Perth 23% 23% 54% Adelaide 24% 23% 53% Brisbane 23% 21% 56% Melbourne 22% 23% 55% Sydney 18% 26% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Independent Catholic Government Source: ABS Population Census 2006
Family income and school choice Low income $33,799 or less (19.7% of population) 8.1% independent 13.6% Catholic 78.2% government Middle income $33,800 - $103,999 (56.1% of population) 10.6% independent 20.8% Catholic 68.6% government High income $104,000 plus (24.2% of population) 23.9% independent 26.7% Catholic 49.4% government Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing 2006
Sector diversity Indigenous students 9,315 Independent schools with 50%+ indigenous enrolment Students with disabilities 12,172 Special schools 57 Overseas students 8,378 Boarding students 16,829 Boarding schools 152 Schools with less than 200 students 39% Schools with 200 1,000 students 44% Schools with 1,000 2,000 students 16% Combined schools (primary & secondary) 63% 36 Note: Figures include independent Catholic schools and enrolments
$ billions Schools recurrent funding by sector 2008-09 35.0 30.0 1.4 (estimated) 25.0 20.0 15.0 27.4 10.0 5.0 0.0 2.0 1.4 4.1 3.4 3.9 2.1 Government Catholic Independent 0.8 Australian Government State/territory governments Parents Source: Productivity Commission & Financial Questionnaire
Average NRIPS, Government income and private income per student average school amount Net recurrent income per student Government Catholic Independent $11,132 $9,697 $13,748 Government income per student Government Catholic Independent $10,554 $7,736 $6,302 Private income per student Government Catholic Independent $645 $2,846 $9,028 Source: ACARA Financial Data February 2011 Excludes: 28 independent schools with data pending and government schools with zero enrolments or no AG recurrent income. includes some updated independent sector data for NSW, WA and ACT
Net recurrent income per student by sector Independent* Catholic Government** Schools Enrolments Schools Enrolments Schools Enrolments $0 - $5K 7 3,029 1 158 11 774 $5 - $10K 317 109,558 1,057 360,078 2,358 1,039,087 $10 - $15K 430 236,532 492 281,033 2,634 1,050,536 $15 - $20K 155 117,252 40 9,195 726 118,958 $20K plus 122 60,031 43 5,315 984 66,621 Source: ACARA Financial Data February 2011 *28 schools data pending in the independent sector **38 schools have no funded enrolments & therefore no net recurrent income per student amount. They are environmental education centres and hospital schools in NSW.
% of AGSRC 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% SES score 85 The SES funding model Final 2010 AGSRC (initial 2011 amounts) Primary $9,070; secondary $11,393 SES score 85 Primary $6,349; secondary $7,976 SES score 130 Primary $1,243; secondary $1,561 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% SES score 130 10.0% 0.0% 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101 103 105 107 109 111 113 115 117 119 121 123 125 127 129 131 133 135 137 139 SES Score
Funding per student Sliding scale of funding entitlement per student according to SES score (initial 2011 amounts) $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $7,976 $7,976 $6,349 $6,349 $7,258 $6,000 $5,778 $5,834 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $4,644 $4,410 $3,511 $2,985 $2,000 $2,377 $1,561 $1,561 $1,000 $1,243 $1,243 $- 80 85 90 100 110 120 130 135 SES Score Primary Secondary
Independent schools by SES score 2010 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 101 103 105 107 109 111 113 115 117 119 121 123 125 127 129 131 133 135 74% of schools have an SES 107 Note: SES 85 includes special schools and special assistance schools
Annual funding per student 2006 Non-systemic enrolments Non-systemic school funding sources and non-systemic enrolments by school SES score 2006 $25,000 80,000 70,000 $20,000 60,000 $15,000 50,000 40,000 $10,000 30,000 $5,000 20,000 10,000 $- 85 or less 86-90 91-95 96-100 101-105 106-110 111-115 116-120 121-125 126-129 130 or more School SES Score 0 Independent Sector enrolments Commonwealth General Recurrent Grants Targeted Programs State Government Grants Private Income Source: ANAO analysis of Non-government Schools Financial Questionnaire data & DEEWR Census
Projected enrolment change in all schools 2010-2020 2010 2020 Change (no.) Equivalent no. of new schools* Government Schools Primary 1,389,263 1,754,541 365,278 1,081 Secondary 893,094 942,649 49,555 147 Total 2,282,357 2,697,190 414,833 1,227 Catholic Schools Primary 390,532 492,573 102,041 244 Secondary 322,757 367,737 44,980 108 Total 713,289 860,310 147,021 352 Independent Schools Primary 230,532 302,722 72,190 149 Secondary 260,701 338,548 77,847 161 Total 491,233 641,270 150,037 311 All Schools Primary 2,010,327 2,549,836 539,509 1,474 Secondary 1,476,552 1,648,934 172,382 415 Total 3,486,879 4,198,770 711,891 1,890 Source: DEEWR Projections and ABS Schools Australia *Based on average school size by sector for 2010 derived from ABS data.
What currently works well Demand & Supply finely balanced Choice & diversity options Funding stability and predictability Encourages private investment Autonomy and community involvement Responsiveness & outcomes meet parental expectations Parents consider they receive value for money Affordable for government Frees funds for other Government priorities