Socio-economy of Indian States Bibek Debroy Laveesh Bhandari Indicus Analytics
This Presentation INDIA TODAY Rating and Ranking States What is happening within the states INDIA TOMORROW Where are the states going towards? Socio-economic progress Economic growth
Classification of States Large-Small States: Large states have population of greater than 5 million and area greater than 35000 sq km Example: Arunachal area similar to West Bengal s area, population similar to Pondicherry s population Example: Delhi population similar to J&K s population, similar to Goa s area Delhi and Pondicherry considered states Chief Ministers Elected Assemblies
States & UTs Larger States 1 Andhra 11 Kerala 2 Assam 12 Madhya 3 Bihar 13 Maharashtra 4Chhattisgarh 14 Orissa 5 Gujarat 15 Punjab 6 Haryana 16 Rajasthan 7 Himachal 17 TN 8 J & K 18 UP 9 Jharkhand 19 Uttaranchal 10 Karnataka 20 WB Smaller 1 Arunachal 2 Delhi 3 Goa 4 Manipur 5 Meghalaya 6 Mizoram 7 Nagaland 8 Pondicherry 9 Sikkim 10 Tripura UTs 1 A&N Islands 2 Chandigarh 3 D&N Haveli 4 Daman Diu 5 Lakshadweep
Categories Agriculture: Cash crops, Productivity, Irrigation Consumer Market: TV, 2-wheeler, Expenditure Education: Literacy, primary school completion, states expenditure Health: IMR, doctors, tap water, gender bias Law & Order: Police, pending cases, violence Infrastructure: Electricity, roads, telephone, LPG Investment Environment: disputes, SSI sickness, commercial bank credit, public investment Budget & Prosperity: Poverty, SGDP, State debt
Ranking of States All states are different They have to be made comparable Larger States, Smaller States, UTs Normalization Ratios and percentages Per capita
Infrastructure Access to Electricity Road length Bank branches LPG connections Post offices Telephone density
Consumer Markets TV ownership Rural households spending > Rs 615 per person per month Urban households spending > Rs 1120 per person per month Bank deposits Two wheelers
Education Literacy rate 10 plus children completed primary Girls to boys enrolled in elementary school Teacher student ratio Expenditure on elementary education
Law & Order, Justice Police strength Pending to total cases in courts Incidence of murder Incidence of kidnapping Incidence of rape & molestations
Health IMR Male to female IMR Births assisted Access to tap water Doctors Sex ratio Expenditure on health and family welfare
Investment Attractiveness Public administration GSDP State s capital expenditure Bank credit Industrial disputes Gross capital formation Industrial workers Sick SSIs
Agriculture Cash crops Agriculture GSDP Electricity consumption Food grain yield Loans to agriculture Irrigated to sown area
Budget & Prosperity State s capital expenditure Total debt Sales revenue of SEBs Per capita GSDP Urbanization Inflation Poverty
Overall Performance Agriculture Consumer markets Education Law & order, justice Health Infrastructure Investment attractiveness Budget & prosperity
How rapidly are regions growing Motor Spirit Diesel Credit Deposits Cereals R-Square of 93% with GSDP
Breadth of Social Progress 1. Demography: 0-6 sex ratio 2. Education: Literacy, female to male literacy, gross enrollment ratio in elementary school 3. Health: IMR, fully immunized children 4. Prosperity: Poverty, Hunger An equal weighted index constructed for all 593 districts
Socioeconomic status
States in 2020 1. Prosperity: SGDP, Poverty 2. Health: Life expectancy, IMR 3. Education: Literacy 4. Demography: Age wise population 5. Projections based on trends since nineties
2020 2000 Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Assam Assam Bihar Bihar Chhattisgarh Chhattisgarh Gujarat Gujarat Haryana Haryana Jharkhand Jharkhand Karnataka Karnataka Kerala Kerala Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Maharashtra Orissa Orissa Punjab Punjab Rajasthan Rajasthan Tamil Tamil Nadu Nadu Uttar Uttar Pradesh Pradesh West West Bengal Bengal 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 What will happen to the states Poverty
What will happen to the states Standard of Living 2000 2020
What will happen to the states Inequality between states will be higher Migration Inequality, Migration & Freedom This internal migration will be affected by Economic freedom States that provide greater levels of freedom to carry out economic activities will attract and retain human resources
Economic Freedom and Migration 7.00 Out migration as % of Home Pop.. 6.00 5.00 4.00 UP Bihar 3.00 2.00 MP Orissa 1.00 Assam WB 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 Economic Freedom Index
What will the states be like in 2020 International Comparison Based on Standard of Living (Purchasing Power Parity, US dollars today) How will the standard of living in the states in 2020 be like, in terms of other countries today
Andhra = Bulgaria, Turkey = Angola, Indonesia Chhattisgarh Assam = Pakistan, Zimbabwe Gujarat = Russia, Saudi Arabia Bihar =Uganda, Bangladesh Haryana = Brazil, Mauritius
Himachal Karnataka = Turkey, South Africa = South Africa/Chil Hungary J & K = Indonesia, Lebanon Kerala = Iran, Russia Jharkhand = Zimbabwe, Sri Lanka MP =Angola, Indonesia
Maharashtra Rajasthan = Mexico, Argentina =Lebanon, Iran Orissa = Ghana, Zimbabwe TN = Russia, Saudi Arabia Punjab = Brazil, Mauritius UP =Vietnam, Indonesia
WB = Romania, Russia Pondicherry = France, USA Delhi =New Zealand, Japan Chandigarh = Japan, USA = Spain, Switzerland Goa
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