Adjusting to Higher Education s New Realities Boston, Massachusetts October 26, 2009 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 150 Boulder, Colorado 80301
The Reality of Higher Expectations A more highly educated workforce Increase production of college degrees Improvements in quality Slide 2
The Expectation By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world President Barack Obama, February 24, 2009 slide 3
Associate and Bachelors Degrees Needed to Become the Most Educated Country by 2020 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Current Annual Degree Production Additional Degrees Needed to Meet Goal 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 Additional Annual Degree Production Needed 150,528 per Year Current Annual Degree Production 2,252,212 500,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 50% Increase in State and Local Funding at Current Cost per FTE 40% 30% 21% 25% 30% 32% 35% 20% 10% 3% 5% 7% 9% 12% 14% 17% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 slide 4 Note: Assumes private institutions will maintain current share
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group - U.S., Washington, & Leading OECD Countries Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008 slide 5
Percent of Adults with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher by Age Group - U.S., Washington, & Leading OECD Countries Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008 Note: US data derived from ACS slide 6
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group New England States Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008 slide 7
Percent of Adults with an Bachelor s Degree or Higher by Age Group New England States Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008 slide 8
18,000 16,000 Annual Increase in Degree Production Required to Meet the Goal 11.7 Million Additional Degrees by 2020 Adjusting for Current Levels of Educational Attainment and Population Growth by State 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 3,346 2,000 1,335 830 669 526 343 - Alaska Wyoming Vermont Montana North Dakota Delaware South Dakota Maine Hawaii DC New Hampshire Idaho New Mexico Rhode Island Nevada Nebraska West Virginia Connecticut Arkansas Kansas Mississippi Oregon South Carolina Louisiana Oklahoma Alabama Kentucky Utah Maryland Iowa Colorado Minnesota Wisconsin New Jersey Tennessee Washington Massachusetts Missouri Virginia Georgia Indiana North Carolina Arizona Michigan Ohio Illinois Pennsylvania New York Florida Texas California slide 9
Percent Annual Increase in Degree Production Required to Meet the Goal 11.7 Million Additional Degrees by 2020 Adjusting for Current Levels of Educational Attainment and Population Growth by State slide 10
Additional Degree-Holders Needed to Close Racial/ Ethnic Gaps Between Whites & Minorities, 2005-07 slide 11
Slide 12 The Fiscal Realities
The Flow of Funds - State Economy Tax Policy Available State and Local Govt. Funds Stimulus Funds Federal Government Higher Education K-12 Corrections Health Care Other Govt. Student Aid Appropriations/Grants Students Student Aid Tuition Scholarships & Waivers Institutions Federal Government 13
Expenditures 20 Annual Percentage Budget Increases, Fiscal 1979 to Fiscal 2010 Annual % Budget Increase, Fiscal 1979 to Fiscal 2009 Percentage Budget Increase 15 10 5 0-5 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Fiscal Year *32-year historical average rate of growth is 5.9 percent ***Fiscal 10 numbers are recommended **Fiscal 09 numbers are estimated Source: NASBO June 2009 Fiscal Survey of States slide 14
FY 2010 Highest Budget Gaps as a Percentage of General Fund Budget Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, April, June, and July 2009. 15
Projected Budget Gaps FY 2008 to FY 2012 16 Source: NCSL survey of state legislative fiscal offices, various years. *Includes Puerto Rico
After stimulus wanes, gaps could approximate 4% of spending, or $70 billion, even under the Low-Gap Scenario slide 17 Source: Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009
After stimulus wanes, gaps could approach 7% of spending or $120 billion under the High-Gap scenario slide 18 Source: Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009
Projected State & Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016 slide 19 Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009
State Tax Capacity and Effort Indexed to U.S. Average 1.7 State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 DE NH SD TN AK VA CT NJ MA WY MD CO MN NV IL WA CA RI US NC GA HI IN IA KS PA NE WI MO FL OH OR TX VT AZ ND MI SC UT KY ID NM AL LA OK MT AR WV MS NY ME 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate) Slide 20 Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)
60 Percent of Children Ages 0 to 17 Living in Families with Less than a Living Wage (2007) 50 40 30 52.1 51.9 49.9 49.7 48.3 48.2 48.1 47.7 46.3 45.8 45.4 44.0 43.4 43.1 42.6 41.6 41.5 41.5 41.2 41.2 40.6 40.0 40.0 39.8 39.7 39.1 39.0 38.1 38.0 37.0 36.6 35.6 35.6 35.4 35.3 35.2 35.2 35.0 34.4 33.2 32.6 30.3 29.7 29.2 27.9 26.7 26.5 25.8 25.1 24.5 20 10 0 Mississippi Arkansas New Mexico Oklahoma Louisiana Kentucky West Virginia Texas Alabama Tennessee Arizona South Carolina Idaho North Carolina Georgia Montana Florida South Dakota Maine California Missouri Oregon United States Michigan Nebraska Ohio Indiana New York Nevada Kansas Pennsylvania Illinois Washington Colorado Delaware Wisconsin Vermont Iowa Utah Rhode Island North Dakota Wyoming Virginia Alaska Minnesota Hawaii New Jersey Massachusetts Maryland Connecticut New Hampshire Slide 21 Source: 2007 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
Projected Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity of 18 to 44 Year Olds from 2005 to 2025 New England States (in Thousands) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections
Percent of Adults with College Degrees (Associate and Higher) by Race/Ethnicity and Age New England (2006) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS (PUMS)
The Challenge More degrees higher education attainment At higher quality With limited resources Productivity improvement becomes an imperative 24
35 28 21 Degrees and Certificates Awarded* per 100 FTE Students (2006-07) 30 28 28 28 27 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 16 18 14 7 0 California Nevada Rhode Island North Carolina New Mexico Alaska Missouri Mississippi New York Wyoming Arkansas Tennessee Oregon Nebraska Texas Massachusetts United States New Jersey Maine Maryland Ohio South Carolina Pennsylvania Alabama Delaware Louisiana Hawaii Virginia Indiana Illinois Idaho Montana West Virginia Vermont Michigan Connecticut Minnesota North Dakota Arizona Georgia South Dakota Wisconsin Kansas Iowa New Hampshire Washington Florida Kentucky Oklahoma Utah Colorado * Adjusted for value of degrees in the state employment market (median earnings by degree type and level) Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Productivity: Total Funding per Degree* Tuition and Fees State and Local 29,075 30,619 33,273 33,756 34,330 34,594 36,498 37,823 38,364 38,365 39,516 39,516 39,918 42,177 42,198 42,408 42,693 42,847 42,873 42,948 43,820 44,272 44,371 45,833 45,904 46,522 46,880 47,453 47,672 47,749 48,611 49,894 52,491 52,572 52,888 53,535 54,553 56,090 56,280 56,888 56,960 59,420 59,465 63,822 64,934 65,975 66,623 72,846 75,744 79,794 86,009 20,000 10,000 - Alaska Wyoming Delaware Rhode Island Connecticut Hawaii Massachusetts New Jersey Vermont Maryland Nevada New York Alabama Pennsylvania Maine California New Mexico Tennessee Michigan North Carolina South Carolina Texas Nebraska Indiana Ohio Nation Missouri Virginia Iowa Kentucky Oregon Minnesota Arkansas Arizona Mississippi Illinois New Hampshire Idaho Wisconsin Louisiana Georgia Kansas South Dakota Montana West Virginia Oklahoma North Dakota Utah Washington Colorado Florida * Adjusted for value of degrees in the state employment market (median earnings by degree type and level) Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)
Performance Relative to Funding: Total Funding per FTE Student vs. Associates & Bachelors Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE Undergraduates, 2006-07 Performance (2006-07) slide 27 Total Funding per FTE (2006-07) Source: NCES, IPEDS