Obama s Goal Best In The World By 2020

UPCEA Central Region Conference September 22, 2010 Colorado Springs, CO Obama s Goal Best In The World By 2020 David Longanecker President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), Boulder, CO, USA

UPCEA Central Region Conference September 22, 2010 Colorado Springs, CO David Longanecker President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), Boulder, CO, USA Obama s Goal Best In The World By 2020 Nice Idea

UPCEA Central Region Conference September 22, 2010 Colorado Springs, CO David Longanecker President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), Boulder, CO, USA Obama s Goal Best In The World By 2020 Nice Idea but Can We Get There From Here?

The Challenge By 2020, America will Once again have the highest Proportion of college graduates In the World President Barrack Obama, 2/24/09

A Perfect Situation But, is it A Perfect Storm, or A Perfect Opportunity?

Perfect Storm or Perfect Opportunity The Economic Competitiveness Challenge The Demographic Challenge The Financial Challenge

The Perfect Storm The First Wave The Economic Competitiveness Challenge The Demographic Challenge The Financial Challenge

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007

Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group - U.S. & Leading OECD Countries 60 50 40 30 20 37.4 43.2 50.8 54.8 22.9 39.3 46.2 54.1 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 19.2 37.5 53.0 43.6 39.5 38.1 30.3 40.8 41.4 41.5 41.9 42.2 34.8 32.8 16.9 24.0 22.5 26.8 16.0 19.4 26.9 24.9 30.0 34.6 33.2 36.2 28.5 39.2 40.9 37.7 39.6 10 10.6 0 Canada Japan Korea New Zealand Ireland Belgium Norway France Denmark U.S. Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S., 2005 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength $30,000 High Income, Low Educational Attainment High Income, High Educational Attainment Personal Income Per Capita, 2000 State New Economy Index (2002) Top Tier Middle Tier Low Tier $25,000 NV IN $20,000 TN SC KY AL OK AR LA WV FL OH CT NJ MD MA NH VA CO DE NY IL WA MN AK CA MI US WI GA PA OR NC AZ MO IA ME NE WY TX UT ID ND SD NM MT HI RI KS VT MS $15,000 Low Income, Low Educational Attainment Low Income, High Educational Attainment 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher Source: NCHEMS

The Perfect Storm -- The Second Wave The Economic Competitiveness Challenge The Demographic Challenge The Financial Challenge

High School Graduation Rates - Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2006 100 86.3 80 68.6 60 50.5 40 20 0 Nevada Florida Georgia South Carolina Louisiana Mississippi Alabama New Mexico Alaska Texas New York North Carolina California Tennessee Michigan Hawaii Arizona Virginia Nation Washington Delaware Indiana Colorado Oregon Kentucky West Virginia Rhode Island Ohio Maryland Wyoming Oklahoma Massachusetts Illinois Maine Kansas Missouri Connecticut New Hampshire Idaho Utah Pennsylvania North Dakota Arkansas Montana Vermont Wisconsin South Dakota Nebraska Minnesota Iowa New Jersey Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS

College-Going Rates First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2006 75 76.1 61.6 50 44.8 25 0 Arizona Idaho Alaska Utah Oregon Washington Nevada Rhode Island Vermont Texas California Arkansas Missouri West Virginia Wyoming Montana Oklahoma Hawaii Ohio Florida Illinois Iowa Wisconsin Kentucky Nation Pennsylvania Alabama Colorado Indiana Tennessee South Carolina Delaware Nebraska Maine New Hampshire Michigan Louisiana North Carolina Maryland Kansas Virginia Georgia Minnesota New Jersey Connecticut New Mexico Massachusetts South Dakota North Dakota New York Mississippi Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS

WICHE Projections of High School Grads Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.

WICHE Projections of High School Grads Source: WICHE, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992-2022. 2008.

Change in Population Age 25-44 By Race/Ethnicity, 2005-2025 2,689,700 1,044,516 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The Perfect Storm The Third Wave The Economic Competitiveness Challenge The Demographic Challenge The Financial Challenge

Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016 0 Maryland Maine Vermont New Jersey Connecticut New Hampshire Rhode Island North Dakota Wisconsin Massachusetts Michigan Wyoming California Ohio Delaware Kansas Oregon Virginia New York Minnesota West Virginia Pennsylvania Illinois Alaska Nebraska Montana United States Louisiana Indiana Hawaii Oklahoma New Mexico Missouri Kentucky Iowa South Dakota Washington Florida South Carolina Arkansas Georgia Colorado Tennessee North Carolina Idaho Utah Arizona Nevada Alabama Texas Mississippi -2-4 -6-8 -10-12 -2.1-2.2-2.3-2.3-2.4-2.6-2.7-2.9-3 -3.3-3.5-3.5-3.8-4.1-4.6-4.7-4.8-4.9-5 -5.1-5.2-5.4-5.7-5.7-5.8-5.8-6 -6.2-6.3-6.3-6.7-6.7-6.8-7.2-7.4-7.8-8 -8.1-8.1-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.7-8.9-9.1-9.4-9.5-9.7-10.6-10.8-10.9 Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 Via NCHEMS

The Picture for Public Higher Education We all know the mantra The States don t love use anymore. They ve been disinvesting in us for years And, even those who love us have had to forsake us because we have that other source of revenue TUITION

Life could have been worse Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1983-2009

But that was then, this is now We ve been hammered the last two years. And, the worse is still to come. Well! Yes, and No

Even in The Worst of Times, One Size Doesn t Fit All 30 2009-2010 without stimulus 20 10 0-10 -20-30 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 2009-2010 with stimulus Source: SHEEO & WICHE Preliminary Data November 2009

Where to from here Will it get worse Absolutely We ve squandered the stabilization funding And, we fall off the cliff when this goes away 2011 for most 2012 for the rest And a few states don t have to worry

The Perfect Storm Can We Get There From Here In this Sea A Perfect Storm Three Waves Colliding On Economic Competitiveness we re losing ground On Demographics Performance is already subpar in college success Growth will be entirely in least educated portions of our population On Finances Bad, and getting worse And seemingly no capacity to change our way of doing business (except on the margin)

How Can the U.S. Reach International Competitiveness? Degrees Produced 2005-25 with Current Rate of Production Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures Additional Degrees from Population Growth Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College-Educated Residents Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in College-Going Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student Pipeline Performance Is Cumulative Total Degrees Produced 2005-25 If All of the Above Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%) Source: 2005 ACS, PUMS/nchems

So, The President has set out a major challenge to regain world leadership in higher education We face major demographic and economic challenges in just sustaining the status quo CAN WE GET THERE FROM HERE?

So, How Can We Get There From Here From Perfect Storm to Perfect Situation What won t be the winning strategy Pride in accomplishments of the past Same old same old More public funds from either states or feds.

Moving from the Perfect Storm to the Perfect Situation A winning versus whining strategy Improving productive in undergraduate education Focus on those who aren t succeeding today Focus on the new traditionals Ready Adults On-liners

Becoming More Productive By What Measure? More, Better, Faster, Cheaper But How? In The Policy Arena -Focus Activity Reverse mission creep Reduce governmental avarice In The Practice Arena Change the Business Model Rely on evidence based practice student success Use technology to transform the industry At a distance Close to home

Examples of Productivity Enhancers Scuttle under-enrolled courses and programs Increase/re-align teaching loads Begin (or pay for) new courses and programs only where student demand exists Use cost-effective technology to reduce costs and increase student learning

Examples of Productivity Enhancers Reduce excess credits to degree Trust each other more accept transfer credit Increase credit for prior learning dual enrollment, credit by exam, CAEL assessment Collaborate on pedagogy with other institutions use their best courses Only serve students we can serve Reinvent developmental education we couldn t do it worse, if we tried

Focus on those who aren t succeeding today Communities of Color, particularly the Hispanic community

Difference in Education Attainment Between Whites and Hispanics (2006, Percent) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File. Via NCHEMS

Focus on those who aren t succeeding today Communities of Color, particularly the Hispanic community Adult Students, particularly prior participants Those with special needs Military Those with mental health issues

So, Can We Get There From Here? Absolutely! But not on the current track We have to change BIG TIME Increasing Productivity Increasing Real Access We must look forward, not back Pride is one of the Seven Deadly Sins Just Do It.