The Next Phase of Closing the Gaps: Laying the Foundation for the Future of Higher Education

The Next Phase of Closing the Gaps: Laying the Foundation for the Future of Higher Education

Closing the Gaps Slide 2 In 2000, established a goal of 163,000 annual postsecondary credentials by 2015 *Goal was later increased to 210,000 to reflect increase in population That goal was achieved ahead of schedule: 237,000 in 2012

Texas Healthy Business Environment Has Become a Major Contributor to Our Educational Attainment Goals

Texas Has Benefitted From Importing College-Educated Residents... Net Annual Migration by Degree Level for 22 to 64 Year Olds (Average from 2010-12) 60000 Net Annual Imports = 183,634 (all education levels) Slide 4 50000 50,305 40000 30000 27,563 20000 10000 0 11,865 Associates Bachelor's Graduate Source: U.S. Census Bureau; ACS Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files

While the Closing the Gaps 2015 Goal seemed bold at the time, current evidence suggests that the bar was set too low. Far too low.

12.8 12.0 15.4 16.3 22.8 22.5 27.9 30.7 31.0 29.2 31.3 30.3 33.8 32.7 35.8 33.9 35.4 33.1 34.9 36.9 35.3 42.6 43.5 42.6 41.5 41.0 41.0 47.2 46.9 46.8 46.0 44.6 43.1 44.6 40.9 41.2 47.0 49.5 48.0 51.2 58.7 56.7 58.0 63.8 70 Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group Texas, Mexico, U.S. & Leading OECD Countries, 2011 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 Slide 6 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Korea Japan Canada Ireland United Kingdom Norway New Zealand Australia United States Mexico Texas Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2013 (for 2011); U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample 8 File

Losing Ground Slide 7 55-64 year old Texans rank 3 rd in the world in terms of educational attainment levels (Associate and Higher) Texas attainment levels have stayed relatively steady but in a global economy, staying steady = falling behind 25-34 year old Texans rank 24 th in the world in terms of educational attainment levels (Associate and Higher)

Comparing Texas with Nations and Other States in the Percentage of Young Adult Degree Attainment (Ages 25-34) U.S. States % OECD Country Korea (64) Massachusetts 60 58 56 54 Japan Canada Minnesota 52 New York 50 North Dakota, New Jersey Iowa, New Hampshire 48 Connecticut, Virginia, Maryland Ireland, UK, Norway, Luxembourg Illinois, Nebraska, Colorado 46 New Zealand Pennsylvania Israel, Australia Vermont 44 Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Kansas UNITED STATES, France, Sweden South Dakota, Montana, Washington, Utah 42 Belgium Delaware, Hawaii, Missouri Chile Ohio, California 40 Switzerland, Netherlands Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan Finland, Iceland, Poland, Spain, Estonia, Denmark Indiana, Florida, Maine 38 South Carolina Georgia 36 Tennessee, Idaho, Arizona, Kentucky Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Texas 34 Slovenia Mississippi Greece West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana 32 New Mexico Nevada, Arkansas 30 slide 8 28 Hungary, Germany Portugal 26 Slovak Rep. Czech Rep. 24 Mexico 22 Austria, Italy 20 Turkey Source: 2013 OECD Education at a Glance (for year 2011); 2012 American Community Survey

Our future workforce will demand even more postsecondary trained and educated workers In 1973, only 28% of all U.S. jobs required postsecondary education/skills. By 2020, 65% of all new jobs will require this level of education. 59% of all new jobs in Texas will require postsecondary training or education by 2020. Currently, 34% of Texans aged 25-34 have an associate degree or higher. 2 Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, June 2013 11

The New Goal Slide 10 At least 60% of Texans aged 25-34 will have a postsecondary credential, certificate, or degree of value in the workplace by 2030. THECB, State of Higher Education Address, 2013 This Goal is very audacious given where Texas currently is. But is the bar high enough?

Significant work remains to ensure Texas sustains progress Texas is doing better and falling farther behind It is an urgent matter that Texas increase the knowledge and skills of its workforce to globally competitive standards Failure to do so will have serious economic consequences for both the state and its citizens We must be much more aggressive in our expectations and our policies incrementalism is not a solution Benchmark against global best performance Be much more strategic in Increasing capacity to deliver instruction Investing public resources As largest donor and regulator, state role is central in laying out educational goals for our state workforce and our public institutions In setting goals, state must prioritize completion 11

Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2012) The Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and the State New Economy Index (2012) Slide 12 55 High College Attainment, Low Personal Income High College Attainment, High Personal Income MA 48 VT CO MN VA NH NY MD NJ ND CT 41 34 27 UT AZ ID SC NM AL MS KY AR WV MT OR ME NC FL GA MO MI OH IN TN OK NV LA HI IL NE RI WA KS IA WI US SD PA CA DE TX AK WY State New Economy Index 2012 Top Tier Middle Tier Bottom Tier Low College Attainment, Low Personal Income Low College Attainment, High Personal Income 20 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 Personal Income per Capita (2013) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; ITIF 2012 New Economy Index

Texas Personal Income per Capita as a Percent of the U.S. Average, (1980-2012) Slide 13 110 100 97.8 96.4 94.0 93.6 94.5 95.0 97.8 90 89.2 90.6 80 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

What are the barriers to achieving this goal? Demographics

Texas New Mexico California Florida Nevada Mississippi Georgia Arizona Maryland Louisiana South Carolina New York Illinois New Jersey Delaware North Carolina Nation Alabama Colorado Virginia Connecticut Arkansas Tennessee Rhode Island Michigan Massachusetts Kansas Washington Pennsylvania Oklahoma Oregon Nebraska Indiana Ohio Missouri Wisconsin Hawaii Idaho Utah Minnesota Wyoming Kentucky Iowa Alaska South Dakota North Dakota New Hampshire West Virginia Montana Maine Vermont Percent of 0 to 24 Year Olds Who are Black or Hispanic (2013) 70 60 59.8 50 40 37.3 30 20 10 0 4.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2013 State Population Estimates

60 Population Distribution by Race/Ethnicity (Total and K-12) Total Population 2009 Public Elementary and Secondary Students 2011-12 Slide 16 50 44.5 50.2 40 38.2 30 31.3 20 10 11.6 12.7 5.7 5.8 0 White Hispanic Black Other 16 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Education Statistics

Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities Aged 25-64, 2010-12* Slide 17 Percent with Associate Degree or Higher Whites Minorities Difference Texas 44.9% 20.7% 24.2 U.S. 43.9% 23.3% 20.6 * Minorities include: Black, Hispanic, American Indian, Alaska Native Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-12 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File

Despite more postsecondary completions, attainment among Hispanics, African Americans and poor students remains low Percentage of 2003 8 th Graders Who Earned Postsecondary Credential Within 6 Years of HS Graduation 19.6% Statewide 12.1% 11.7% 28.0% 9.5% Hispanics African Am. White Econ. Dis. SOURCE: Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board 7

Projected Change in Texas Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2010-30 Slide 19 2,000,000 White African American Hispanic / Latino 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,191,767 1,445,090 1,433,719 1,291,243 1,062,750 1,000,000 750,000 500,000 250,000 52,947 22,506 512,100 157,802 182,325 356,570 - (250,000) (500,000) (750,000) (202,298) (96,448) (19,448) Age 0-17 Age 18-24 Age 25-44 Age 25-64 Age 65+ (520,195) Source: Texas State Data Center, Office of the State Demographer

What are the barriers to achieving this goal? Economic Barriers

Percent Percent of Texas Families with Children 17 & Younger by Income Quartile, 2012 45 40 35 White Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Hispanic 42 42.3 35.4 30 27.9 29.1 25 20 15 10 16.1 19.4 24.1 21.4 20 12.5 9.8 5 0 Lowest Second Third Highest Source: US Census Bureau: American Community Survey

Student Pipeline by Economic Disadvantage - Transition Rates from 8th Grade to College Completion 100 90 80 94 92 Of Fall 2001 8 th Graders, How Many. 78 Not Economically Disadvantaged Economically Disadvantaged Slide 22 70 60 59 64 50 40 37 30 28 20 10 9 0 Enrolled in 9th Grade Texas Public High School Graduate Enrolled in Higher Education (Anytime after High School Graduation) Completed a Higher Education Degree or Certificate by 2011 Source: THECB, TEA, and National Student Clearinghouse, 2011

The Consequences of Inaction

2030 Projected Change in Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64 (Same Attainment Rates by Race/Ethnicity Assumed) Slide 24 30 2012 2030 25 21.0 24.7 25.1 23.4 22.4 20 17.4 18.5 16.9 15 10 7.1 6.6 8.9 8.0 5 0 Less than High School High School or GED Some College, No Degree Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree Graudate or Professional Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey and 2010-12 American Community Survey Three-Year PUMS.

Projected Change in Personal Income per Capita per 25 to 64 Year Old Resident (with Same Attainment Rates by Race/Ethnicity) Slide 25 $40,066 $37,147 2012 2030 Sources: Texas State Data Center Population Projections. U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 ACS and 2010-12 ACS Three-Year PUMS.

Change in State Revenues and State Expenditures ($) as a Result of Not Improving Educational Attainment Among Black and Hispanics (Year 2030 Estimates) Slide 26 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 575,664,605 254,512,050 0 0-500,000,000-690,727,473-1,000,000,000-1,500,000,000 State Income Tax Revenues -1,335,450,668 Sales Tax Revenues Property Tax Revenues Medicaid Expenditures Corrections Expenditures Sources: Texas State Data Center, 2009 American Community Survey (PUMS), 2008-10 Current Population Survey (PUMS)

Texas must address challenges to maintain a globally competitive workforce Raise education attainment levels to meet or exceed our competitors Shrink disparities across race and ethnic groups Get more students into high-demand technical fields Improve skills of adult population by bringing them back into the education system 13

Developing the Next Higher Education Strategic Plan By 2030 The THECB established a strategic planning committee consisting of former higher education leaders, P-12 officials, and business representatives. The dialogue has begun with an examination of Workforce, Marketable Skills, and Value as possible goals. At least 60% of Texans aged 25-34 will have a postsecondary credential or degree of value in the workplace. At least 550,000 students will complete a certificate or an associate, bachelor s, or master s degree from a Texas public, independent, or for-profit college or university. All award recipients from Texas public institutions of higher education will graduate from programs with identified marketable skills. The average undergraduate student loan debt of graduates from Texas public colleges and universities will be no greater than XX percent of the average first-year wage for graduates. 14

The Next Phase of Closing the Gaps: Laying the Foundation for the Future of Higher Education