Pearland Independent School District Fall 2013 Demographic Study Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for the Tomorrow
Economic Conditions Texas has had a job growth of 31.5 percent since 1995. Almost triple the nationwide growth of 12 percent. (City Journal Winter 2013) DFW, Houston and Austin Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) created more than 230 thousand jobs in the last 12 months. (Metrostudy) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 80 consecutive months. (http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ ) In 2011, Houston became the 5 th largest MSA in the country with DFW the 4 th behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal Winter 2013) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (August 2013) - U.S. 7.3% - Texas 6.3% - Houston MSA 6.1% - Brazoria County 6.5% - Pearland 4.7% Apartment vacancy rate is below 7% which has led to an average monthly rent of $903, a 4.8% increase over last year. Houston MSA builders put up 7,676 new homes in the last quarter, a 14 percent increase year over year. (Metrostudy) 2
National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. Sept. 2013 Austin, TX, 4.0% McAllen, TX, 3.7% Houston, TX, 3.5% Fort Worth-Arlington, TX, 3.5% Ocala, FL, 3.4% Santa Cruz, CA, 3.4% Salt Lake City, UT, 3.4% Dallas, TX, 3.4% Laredo, TX, 3.3% Brownsville, TX, 3.1% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 7 out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas. Source: Forbes Magazine 3
National Economic Overview Top 5 MSAs Ranked by Annualized New Home Starts 2Q13 Source: Metrostudy 4
Houston Housing Market Starts and Closings 5
Houston Housing Market Year over Year Change in Price and Price/Sq Ft Source: Housing Intelligence Pro 6
Houston Housing Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 69,256 20% Average Price 226,901 9% Median Price 174,500 10% Listings 22,998-19% DOM 57-24% Monthly Supply 3.0-29% Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS 7
Region 4 and 6 Growth 2007/08 2012/13 Legend 5 Year Change 5 YR Change Negative 0-100 100-250 250-750 750-1500 > 1500 8
Regional Enrollment Trends Region 4 Region 6 2007/08 2012/13 Enrollment Enrollment 2007/08-2012/13 Growth Rank DISTNAME 1 CYPRESS-FAIRBANKS ISD 96,837 110,009 13,172 2 KATY ISD 54,402 64,561 10,159 3 ALDINE ISD 60,083 65,684 5,601 4 LAMAR CONSOLIDATED ISD 21,936 26,125 4,189 5 HUMBLE ISD 32,970 37,092 4,122 6 KLEIN ISD 42,935 47,043 4,108 7 HOUSTON ISD 199,534 203,330 3,796 8 ALVIN ISD 15,329 18,888 3,559 9 CLEAR CREEK ISD 36,314 39,631 3,317 10 PASADENA ISD 50,757 53,671 2,914 11 SPRING ISD 33,249 36,093 2,844 12 SPRING BRANCH ISD 32,040 34,851 2,811 13 PEARLAND ISD 17,090 19,651 2,561 14 TOMBALL ISD 9,388 11,771 2,383 15 SHELDON ISD 5,811 7,565 1,754 16 FORT BEND ISD 67,992 69,578 1,586 17 DICKINSON ISD 8,228 9,749 1,521 18 GOOSE CREEK CISD 20,354 21,822 1,468 19 GALENA PARK ISD 21,114 22,112 998 20 BARBERS HILL ISD 3,708 4,548 840 2007/08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/08-2012/13 Growth Rank DISTNAME 1 CONROE ISD 46,524 53,925 7,401 2 NEW CANEY ISD 8,676 11,556 2,880 3 COLLEGE STATION ISD 9,204 11,180 1,976 4 MONTGOMERY ISD 6,094 7,190 1,096 5 MAGNOLIA ISD 11,051 11,994 943 6 BRYAN ISD 14,827 15,623 796 7 WILLIS ISD 5,945 6,553 608 8 HUNTSVILLE ISD 6,164 6,350 186 9 BUFFALO ISD 793 936 143 10 SPLENDORA ISD 3,378 3,489 111 11 ANDERSON-SHIRO CONS ISD 621 729 108 12 TRINITY ISD 1,170 1,265 95 13 SEALY ISD 2,598 2,683 85 14 BURTON ISD 283 366 83 15 MUMFORD ISD 521 597 76 16 NAVASOTA ISD 2,939 3,010 71 17 SHEPHERD ISD 1,816 1,884 68 18 GROVETON ISD 686 749 63 19 GAUSE ISD 153 209 56 20 CAMERON ISD 1,567 1,620 53 9
Houston MSA New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 2Q13 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Katy ISD 3,513 3,254 2,968 3,938 2 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 3,029 2,818 2,822 7,281 3 Fort Bend ISD 2,970 2,581 2,840 5,807 4 Houston ISD 2,744 2,285 3,063 4,243 5 Conroe ISD 1,842 1,642 2,946 4,129 6 Lamar CISD 1,714 1,510 2,739 3,249 7 Klein ISD 1,615 1,454 1,946 3,633 8 Tomball ISD 1,231 1,341 1,800 2,067 9 Humble ISD 1,321 1,274 2,172 3,552 10 Alvin ISD 695 722 1,594 3,422 11 Clear Creek ISD 738 675 1,104 754 12 Aldine ISD 484 456 1,774 4,132 13 Spring ISD 423 408 1,580 2,756 14 New Caney ISD 455 372 698 1,691 15 Pasadena ISD 342 313 422 713 16 Goose Creek ISD 313 308 688 530 17 Montgomery ISD 325 254 602 1,988 18 Dickinson ISD 299 245 720 592 19 Spring Branch ISD 306 236 306 614 20 Magnolia ISD 329 226 994 2,629 21 Friendswood ISD 183 170 220 472 22 Pearland ISD 150 169 169 879 23 Sheldon ISD 123 144 550 2,488 24 Barbers Hill ISD 164 117 252 55 25 Waller ISD 111 101 341 232 10
New Housing Activity Pearland ISD Housing Activity Starts & Closings 4Q11-2Q13 Inventory is very low, below 70 units. That is only a 6 month s supply. Starts were down 2Q13, look for 3Q13 to have strong starts due to the 44 new home closes, 14 more than the starts. 11
Housing Activity Current PISD District Profile Status 879 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 169 Model Homes Finished Vacant Under Construction Vacant Developed Lots Future Lots 200 100 9 7 52 0 Through 2Q13 12
Future Housing Activity Highland Crossing-Future Location McHard Road Highland Crossing Cockrell Elementary Low $200 s Beazer Homes 81-Acres 220-240 New Homes 13
Future Housing Activity Rocky Creek Estates-Future Location Rocky Creek Estates High $200 s Meritage Homes 56 New Homes Future Site 14
Multi-Family Housing Yields Multi-Family Yields 0.14 0.22 0.23 0.54 0.55 1.01 20 Multifamily communities Total students = 1,910 Three types = Lifestyle, Transition and Affordable (.14-.22) (.23-.54) (.55-1.01) 15
Enrollment History Year (Oct.) EE Pre-K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total Percent 2009/10 102 316 1,378 1,429 1,507 1,503 1,473 1,506 1,361 1,325 1,319 1,377 1,331 1,245 1,136 18,308 2010/11 96 304 1,411 1,422 1,524 1,512 1,529 1,478 1,502 1,376 1,343 1,440 1,368 1,250 1,214 18,769 461 2.5% 2011/12 92 320 1,409 1,466 1,472 1,567 1,533 1,527 1,510 1,521 1,393 1,425 1,443 1,301 1,226 19,205 436 2.3% 2012/13 96 345 1,360 1,486 1,522 1,495 1,567 1,575 1,572 1,547 1,543 1,464 1,431 1,360 1,287 19,650 445 2.3% 2013/14 76 316 1,391 1,431 1,506 1,523 1,536 1,610 1,625 1,612 1,575 1,628 1,489 1,389 1,318 20,025 375 1.9% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year District starting to show signs of a maturing student population. District enrollment growth since 2009 = 1,717 students Middle School grades are the largest in the district. KG-3 rd = 5,851 5 th -8 th = 6,422 9 th -12 th = 5,824 16
Ten Year Forecast Year (Oct.) EE Pre-K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2009/10 102 316 1,378 1,429 1,507 1,503 1,473 1,506 1,361 1,325 1,319 1,377 1,331 1,245 1,136 18,308 2010/11 96 304 1,411 1,422 1,524 1,512 1,529 1,478 1,502 1,376 1,343 1,440 1,368 1,250 1,214 18,769 461 2.5% 2011/12 92 320 1,409 1,466 1,472 1,567 1,533 1,527 1,510 1,521 1,393 1,425 1,443 1,301 1,226 19,205 436 2.3% 2012/13 96 345 1,360 1,486 1,522 1,495 1,567 1,575 1,572 1,547 1,543 1,464 1,431 1,360 1,287 19,650 445 2.3% 2013/14 76 316 1,391 1,431 1,506 1,523 1,536 1,610 1,625 1,612 1,575 1,628 1,489 1,389 1,318 20,025 375 1.9% 2014/15 76 316 1,417 1,459 1,455 1,534 1,540 1,578 1,642 1,664 1,640 1,693 1,591 1,416 1,376 20,396 371 1.9% 2015/16 76 316 1,445 1,471 1,479 1,469 1,555 1,582 1,615 1,685 1,674 1,749 1,640 1,497 1,395 20,647 251 1.2% 2016/17 76 316 1,498 1,507 1,494 1,485 1,505 1,612 1,627 1,656 1,723 1,776 1,702 1,544 1,469 20,990 343 1.7% 2017/18 76 316 1,503 1,553 1,534 1,514 1,508 1,576 1,632 1,664 1,684 1,807 1,737 1,602 1,511 21,218 227 1.1% 2018/19 76 316 1,489 1,557 1,584 1,554 1,542 1,576 1,590 1,676 1,697 1,794 1,778 1,633 1,576 21,439 221 1.0% 2019/20 76 316 1,486 1,540 1,577 1,595 1,585 1,591 1,605 1,631 1,711 1,780 1,762 1,667 1,601 21,524 86 0.4% 2020/21 76 316 1,496 1,538 1,565 1,600 1,622 1,662 1,638 1,635 1,663 1,788 1,753 1,657 1,635 21,644 120 0.6% 2021/22 76 316 1,483 1,547 1,567 1,572 1,634 1,653 1,711 1,682 1,668 1,737 1,761 1,648 1,627 21,683 39 0.2% 2022/23 76 316 1,493 1,535 1,571 1,591 1,595 1,715 1,673 1,752 1,716 1,733 1,708 1,653 1,618 21,746 63 0.3% 2023/24 76 316 1,496 1,545 1,561 1,587 1,620 1,664 1,758 1,722 1,786 1,787 1,706 1,606 1,623 21,853 107 0.5% Five year enrollment growth = 1,414 District enrollment = 21,218 in the year 2017 Ten year enrollment growth = 1,828 District enrollment = 21,853 in the year 2023 Total Growth Total Percent *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year 17
Elementary Campus Ten Year Forecast Pearland ISD Capacity Fall Projections Campus Name 25/22 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 B Cockrell Elementary 858 804 812 829 879 911 944 965 974 980 979 974 CJ Harris Elementary 770 673 672 693 680 682 698 710 731 719 710 709 Challenger Elementary 770 671 657 661 670 678 682 692 689 679 672 665 EA Lawhon Elementary 638 681 700 708 710 720 730 734 724 721 717 712 HC Carleston Elementary 770 785 784 781 783 801 798 793 790 783 775 775 Magnolia Elementary 858 801 837 851 881 891 898 907 909 914 923 932 Massey Ranch Elementary 858 693 694 673 679 691 711 717 725 720 705 701 Rustic Oak Elementary 770 558 550 563 549 548 572 585 596 599 608 618 Shadycrest Elementary 748 576 581 583 583 601 606 616 620 617 623 627 Silvercrest Elementary 814 829 812 791 804 822 813 802 795 799 792 806 Silverlake Elementary 770 708 698 678 663 659 666 654 660 664 673 682 Elementary Total 8,624 7,779 7,797 7,811 7,881 8,004 8,118 8,175 8,213 8,195 8,177 8,201 Elem. Growth -92 18 14 70 123 114 57 38-18 -18 24 18
Middle School & High School Ten Year Forecast Pearland ISD Capacity Fall Projections Campus Name 25/22 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Alexander Middle 925 659 668 617 637 646 605 636 652 669 685 681 Leon H Sablatura Mid 900 826 820 839 842 840 840 861 912 944 951 959 Rogers Middle 925 930 917 936 932 884 868 864 863 880 861 890 Sam Jamison Mid 925 820 815 805 828 838 853 835 873 871 891 892 Middle Total 3,675 3,235 3,220 3,197 3,239 3,208 3,166 3,196 3,300 3,364 3,388 3,422 Middle Growth 88-15 -23 42-31 -42 30 104 64 24 34 Berry Miller JH 900 898 967 937 948 966 960 909 884 881 893 885 Pearland JH East 900 663 665 695 707 656 677 691 645 677 697 715 Pearland JH South 875 851 845 883 878 868 873 882 910 910 941 939 Pearland JH West 900 774 826 843 845 857 862 859 858 881 936 968 Junior High Total 3,575 3,186 3,303 3,358 3,378 3,347 3,372 3,341 3,297 3,349 3,467 3,507 Junior High Growth 98 117 55 20-31 25-31 -44 52 118 40 Glenda Dawson HS 2,000 2,115 2,089 2,137 2,098 2,103 2,168 2,204 2,195 2,168 2,108 2,055 Sheryl Searcy 9th 1,200 784 880 891 912 949 911 897 940 910 913 960 Pearland HS 2,650 2,135 2,146 2,229 2,387 2,508 2,606 2,614 2,601 2,599 2,595 2,610 Pace Center 300 79 97 92 89 93 92 91 92 92 92 92 Turner College & Career HS 1,250 708 860 928 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 1,002 High School Total 7,400 5,821 6,072 6,277 6,488 6,655 6,779 6,808 6,830 6,771 6,710 6,719 High School Growth 284 251 205 211 166 124 30 22-59 -61 9 Brazoria County JJ AEP 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 TOTAL 23,274 20,025 20,396 20,647 20,990 21,218 21,439 21,524 21,644 21,683 21,746 21,853 Student Growth 375 371 251 343 227 221 86 120 39 63 107 19
Summary Positives Texas economy continues to out-perform the nation. Houston #1 job growth city in the country. Houston job growth likely to continue with growth from the energy industry. Housing market strong with increasing values. Pearland ISD Pearland ISD is approaching build-out. District in position to add over 1,400 students in the next five years. Lawhon and Carleston over capacity in 2014. Four elementary schools over capacity in 2016. Rogers Middle over capacity in 2015. Berry JH over capacity in 2014. Berry and Pearland South over in 2015. Dawson H.S. over capacity in 2014. District enrollment to top 21,000 in the year 2017. 20