Handbook of Real-World Applications in Modeling and Simulation
Handbook of Real-World Applications in Modeling and Simulation Edited by John A. Sokolowski Catherine M. Banks Old Dominion University A John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Publication
Copyright 2012 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, (978) 750 8400, fax (978) 750 4470, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748 6011, fax (201) 748 6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permission. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services or for technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at (800) 762 2974, outside the United States at (317) 572 3993 or fax (317) 572 4002. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic formats. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data: Sokolowski, John A., 1953- Handbook of real-world applications in modeling and simulation / John A. Sokolowski, Catherine M. Banks. p. cm. (Wiley handbooks in operations research and management science ; 2) ISBN 978-1-118-11777-4 (hardback) 1. System analysis Mathematical models. 2. Computer simulation. I. Banks, Catherine M., 1960- II. Title. Q295.S677 2012 003 dc23 2011040415 Printed in the United States of America 10987654321
This book is dedicated to Modeling and Simulation professionals, practitioners, and students John A. Sokolowski My dear and patient James Catherine M. Banks
Contents Contributors Preface xiii xvii Introduction 1 1 Research and Analysis for Real-World Applications 8 Catherine M. Banks 1.1 Introduction and Learning Objectives, 8 1.1.1 Learning Objectives, 10 1.2 Background, 10 1.3 M&S Theory and Toolbox, 13 1.3.1 Simulation Paradigms, 15 1.3.2 Types of Modeling, 16 1.3.3 Modeling Applications, 17 1.4 Research and Analysis Methodologies, 18 Case Study: A Methodology for M&S Project Progression, 20 Summary, 23 Key Terms, 24 Exercises, 25 References, 25 2 Human Behavior Modeling: A Real-World Application 26 John A. Sokolowski 2.1 Introduction and Learning Objectives, 26 2.2 Background and Theory, 27 2.2.1 Classical Decision Theory, 27 2.2.2 Naturalistic Decision Making, 31 vii
viii Contents 2.2.3 Recognition-Primed Decision Model, 33 2.2.4 Military Decision Making, 37 2.2.5 Computational Techniques for Implementing the CJTF Decision Process, 40 2.2.6 Summary of the State-of-the-Art, 53 Case Studies, 54 Summary, 81 Key Terms, 82 Exercises, 83 References, 83 Appendix: A Decision Scenario and Associated Data, 88 3 Transportation 93 R. Michael Robinson 3.1 Introduction and Learning Objectives, 93 3.2 Background, 94 3.3 Theory, 95 3.3.1 Simulation Levels, 95 3.3.2 Traffic Analysis Zones, 97 3.3.3 The Four-Step Model, 98 3.3.4 Method of Successive Averages, 102 3.3.5 Volume Delay Functions, 105 3.3.6 Dynamic Traffic Assignment, 108 3.4 Transportation Modeling Applications, 113 3.4.1 Traffic Demand Models, 113 3.4.2 Public Transportation Models, 114 3.4.3 Freight Modeling, 117 3.4.4 Evacuation Simulations, 121 Summary, 124 Key Terms, 125 Exercises, 126 References, 126 Further Reading, 127 4 Homeland Security Risk Modeling 129 Barry C. Ezell 4.1 Introduction and Learning Objectives, 129 4.2 Background, 131 4.2.1 Bioterrorism Risk Assessment 2006, 132 4.2.2 Estimating Likelihood of Terrorist Events, 133 4.2.3 Risk Assessed as a Function of Threat, Vulnerability, and Consequence, 135
Contents ix 4.3 Theory and Applications in Risk Modeling, 136 4.3.1 Philosophical Considerations, 137 4.3.2 Ontology and Epistemology, 138 4.3.3 Issues and Implications for the Risk Analyst, 138 4.3.4 Philosophical Considerations Summary, 141 4.3.5 System Principals and Applications for the Risk Analyst, 142 4.3.6 Factors in Developing a Risk Assessment Study Plan, 143 4.3.7 Scope and Bound in a Risk Study: Constraints, Limitations, and Assumptions, 145 4.3.8 Well-Known Challenge in Homeland Security Studies, 146 4.4 Elements of a Study Plan, 147 4.5 Modeling Paradigms, 148 4.5.1 Simple Verses Complex Methodologies, 148 4.5.2 Quantitative and Qualitative Designs, 148 4.5.3 Modeling Approaches and Examples, 150 4.5.4 Verification and Validation for Risk Models, 156 Case Studies, 157 Summary, 161 Key Terms, 161 Exercises, 161 References, 162 Further Reading, 164 5 Operations Research 165 Andrew J. Collins and Christine S.M. Currie 5.1 Introduction and Learning Objectives, 165 5.2 Background, 166 5.2.1 OR Techniques, 168 5.3 Theory, 169 5.3.1 Problem Structuring Methods, 169 5.3.2 Queuing Theory, 175 5.3.3 Decision Analysis, 179 5.3.4 Game Theory, 182 5.3.5 Optimization, 186 5.4 Modeling Paradigms, 192 Case Studies, 193 Summary, 199 Key Terms, 201 Exercises, 202
x Contents References, 204 Further Reading, 206 6 Business Process Modeling 207 Rafael Diaz, Joshua G. Behr, and Mandar Tulpule 6.1 Introduction and Learning Objectives, 207 6.2 Background, 207 6.3 Discrete-Event Simulation, 214 6.3.1 Introduction, 214 6.3.2 Fundamentals, 215 6.3.3 Queuing System Model Components, 218 6.3.4 Time Advance Mechanism, 219 6.3.5 Simulation Flowchart, 220 6.4 Discrete-Event Simulation Case Study, 221 6.4.1 Introduction, 222 6.4.2 Background, 222 6.4.3 Research Question, 223 6.4.4 Overview of Optimization Model, 224 6.4.5 The Simulation Model, 225 6.4.6 Experimental Setting, 225 6.4.7 Simulation Parameterization and Execution, 226 6.4.8 Weigh Zones and Product Reassignment, 226 6.4.9 Results, 226 6.5 System Dynamics Simulation, 227 6.5.1 Introduction, 227 6.5.2 Fundamentals, 228 6.5.3 The Stock and Flow Diagrams, 229 6.5.4 Model Calibration, 231 6.5.5 Model Testing, 233 6.5.6 Population Modeling Exercise, 233 6.5.7 Application of System Dynamics, 235 6.5.8 Background, 235 6.5.9 Research Question, 238 6.5.10 Dynamic Hypothesis, 238 6.5.11 Causal Loop Diagram, 238 6.5.12 Stock and Flow Model, 239 6.5.13 Simulation and Results, 240 6.5.14 Conclusions, 244 6.6 Monte Carlo Simulation, 244 6.6.1 Introduction, 244 6.6.2 Fundamentals, 245 6.6.3 Probability Theory and Monte Carlo, 247
Contents xi 6.6.4 Central Limit Theorem, 247 6.6.5 Three-Sigma Rule, 247 6.6.6 Monte Carlo Case Study, 249 6.6.7 Research Question, 250 6.6.8 Model Parameters, 250 6.6.9 Simulation Procedure, 250 6.6.10 Estimating Profit, 251 6.6.11 Excel Implementation, 253 6.6.12 Outcomes, 253 6.6.13 Conclusions, 254 Summary, 255 Key Terms, 255 Review Questions, 256 References, 257 7 A Review of Mesh Generation for Medical Simulators 261 Michel A. Audette, Andrey N. Chernikov, and Nikos P. Chrisochoides 7.1 Introduction and Learning Objectives, 261 7.2 Background A Survey of Relevant Biomechanics and Open-Source Software, 263 7.2.1 Architecture of an Interactive Medical Simulator, 263 7.2.2 Mechanics of Tissue Manipulation in Medical Simulation, 264 7.2.3 Mechanics of Tissue Cutting and Resection in Medical Simulation, 269 7.2.4 Open-Source Resources in Medical Simulation, 269 7.3 Theory The Impact of Element Quality and Size on Simulation, 272 7.4 Modeling Paradigms Methods for Mesh Generation, 276 7.4.1 Structured Tetrahedral Mesh Generation, 276 7.4.2 Unstructured Tetrahedral Mesh Generation, 276 7.4.3 Octree-Based Unstructured Tetrahedral Mesh Generation, 279 7.4.4 Delaunay Unstructured Tetrahedral Mesh Generation, 280 7.4.5 Advancing Front Unstructured Tetrahedral Mesh Generation, 284 7.4.6 Optimization-Based Unstructured Tetrahedral Mesh Generation, 284
xii Contents 7.4.7 Unstructured Surface Mesh Generation, 285 Case Studies, 289 Summary, 291 Key Terms, 292 Acknowledgments, 293 Exercises, 293 References, 294 8 Military Interoperability Challenges 298 Saikou Y. Diallo and José J. Padilla 8.1 Introduction and Learning Objectives, 298 8.2 Background, 299 8.2.1 Overview, 300 8.2.2 State of the Art in Interoperability, 300 8.2.3 Levels of Interoperability, 302 8.2.4 Current Approaches to Interoperation, 303 8.3 Theory, 305 8.3.1 Data Models, 306 8.3.2 A Relational Model of Data in M&S Systems, 307 Case Study: Live Virtual Constructive Simulation Environments, 311 8.4 Live Virtual Constructive, 311 8.5 LVC Examples, 315 8.6 Distributed Simulation Engineering and Execution Process (DSEEP), 316 8.7 LVC Architecture Framework (LVCAF), 320 8.8 Simulation Systems, 322 Summary, 323 Key Terms, 324 Exercises, 325 References, 325 Index 329
Contributors Michel A. Audette, Ph.D., is Assistant Professor at Old Dominion s Department of Modeling, Simulation, and Visualization Engineering, where his research emphasizes patient-specific neurosurgery simulation, model-based surgical guidance, and surgical device development. Before coming to Old Dominion, he was R&D engineer at Kitware, as well as had postdoctoral experience at the Innovation Center Computer Assisted Surgery (ICCAS) in Leipzig, Germany, and at the National Institute for Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) in Tsukuba, Japan. He has broad expertise in medical image analysis and continuum mechanics, and has a highly collaborative approach to the simulation of surgical instruments and to anatomical modeling. He received his Ph.D. at McGill University, Montreal, Canada, where his thesis dealt with a laser range-sensing-based approach to the estimation of intrasurgical brain shift, and he helped introduce range sensing to the medical imaging community. He has patents in the United States and Japan. Catherine M. Banks, Ph.D., is Research Associate Professor at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis, and Simulation Center (VMASC) at Old Dominion University. Dr. Banks received her Ph.D. in International Studies at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. She currently focuses her research on modeling states and their varied histories of revolution and insurgency, political economy and state volatility, and human behavior/human modeling with applications in the health sciences. Dr. Banks is the coeditor of Principles of Modeling and Simulation: A Multidisciplinary Approach, Modeling and Simulation Fundamentals: Theoretical Underpinnings and Practical Domains (2010), and Modeling and Simulation for Medical and Health Sciences (2011) and is coauthor of Modeling and Simulation for Analyzing Global Events (2009), published by Wiley. Joshua G. Behr, Ph.D., is Research Associate Professor at the Virginia Modeling, Analysis, and Simulation Center (VMASC) at Old Dominion University and Professor within the School of Health Professions at Eastern Virginia Medical School. Dr. Behr received his training at the University of New Orleans, xiii