SCHOOL QUALITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH Eric A. Hanushek Stanford University Enhancing Social Spending in Support of Inclusive Growth in Asia Colombo, Sri Lanka July 14-15, 15 2016 UN Sustainable Development Goals
Development = Growth Growth = Skills
Introduction Focus on educational quality Implications of quality for economic outcomes Approaches to improvement Percent Completing Lower Secondary 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Ghana Botswana Vietnam Albania Mexico Colombia Sau udi Arabia So outh Africa Honduras Iran Lebanon Turkey Macedonia Brazil Costa Rica Morocco Thailand Georgia Oman Malaysia Uruguay Ukraine Bulgaria Indonesia Armenia Peru Bahrain Chile Lithuania Hong Ko ong-china Argentina Italy Serbia Greece Austria Israel France Ka azakhstan
Years of Schooling and Growth Source: Hanushek/Woessmann (2015). Knowledge Capital and Growth Source: Hanushek/Woessmann (2015).
Years of Schooling and Economic Growth With test-score control Without test-score control Students Lacking Basic Skills 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Slo ovak Republic Greece Israel Turkey Serbia Romania Bulgaria United Arab Emirates Thailand Armenia Chile Kazakhstan Iran Malaysia Costa Rica Bahrain Uruguay Mexico Georgia Lebanon Montenegro Macedonia Albania Argentina Saudi Arabia Jordan Tunisia Brazil Oman Botswana Colombia Qatar Peru Indonesia Morocco South Africa Honduras Ghana Note: Vietnam = 11%
Example of fvalue of fimprovement Assuming historical patterns hold Present value over 80 years Improvement plan 25 points on PISA 15 years (by 2030) Thailand moves to Turkey level PISA Math Performance 2009 600 500 25 PISA points 400 300 200 100 0 ngapore ng Kong Korea Taiwan Finland tenstein tzerland Japan Sin Hon Liecht Swit Canada erlands Macao Zealand Neth New Z Belgium Australia ermany Estonia Iceland enmark A G De Slovenia Norway France Republic Austria Poland Slovak_R Sweden Republic Kingdom S Czech_R United_K Hungary mbourg _States Ireland H Luxem United_ Portugal P Spain Italy Latvia thuania an_fed Greece Croatia ai (UAE) Israel Turkey Serbia erbaijan Li Russia Duba Aze Bulgaria R omania Uruguay Chile Thailand Mexico Tobago akhstan tenegro rgentina Jordan Brazil olombia Trinidad_T Kaza Mont Ar Co Albania A Tunisia donesia Qatar Peru Ind Panama gyzstan P Kyrg
Example of fvalue of fimprovement Assuming historical patterns hold Present value over 80 years Improvement plan 25 points on PISA 15 years (by 2030) Thailand moves to level of Turkey (25 points) Present value of 267% of GDP Average 5.7% higher GDP/pop for 80 years 11% higher paychecks for all workers every year Example of fvalue of fimprovement Assuming historical patterns hold Present value over 80 years Improvement plan 25 points on PISA 15 years (by 2030) Thailand moves to universal basic skills Present value of 414% of GDP Average 8.9% higher GDP/pop for 80 years 18% higher paychecks for all workers every year
Universal Basic Skills Universal Basic Skills 20 % increase in GDP 15 10 5 0 Georgia Indonesia Kazahkstan Malaysia Thailand Vietnam full access,current quality current access, basic skills universal basic skills
Universal Basic Skills 20 % increase in GDP 15 10 5 0 Georgia Indonesia Kazahkstan Malaysia Thailand Vietnam full access,current quality current access, basic skills universal basic skills Universal Basic Skills 20 % increase in GDP 15 10 5 0 Georgia Indonesia Kazahkstan Malaysia Thailand Vietnam full access,current quality current access, basic skills universal basic skills
Improvement Path Not just spending how resources are used Teacher quality improvement Incentives Incentives to focus on improving student outcomes Institutional framework Accountability Autonomy Choice and competition What is needed? Commitment to education quality Possible but difficult Expansion of quality measurement Only 76 countries in prior analysis Common cause for education ministers AND finance ministers No alternative if SDGs are to be realized!
http://hanushek.stanford.edu/