The development of higher education in. A global comparison Anne Goujon Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital Higher Education, Mobility and Migration in and out of, Vienna, 19 21 June, 2014
Outline Introduction Where the data come from Overall levels of education Past & Present higher education in Future higher education Conclusions
Introduction Quantitative analysis ( qualitative) and descriptive Comparative analysis of all n countries with a regional perspective Contextual: Compare to other developing societies Link between education and demography
Background and source of data Context: Global population projections by levels of educational attainment See Lutz, W., Butz, W., and S. KC. 2014 forthcoming. World population and human capital in the 21st century. Oxford University Press. Scope: 6 education categories, 171 countries Methodology: Expert-based modeling Soon available online at: http://www.wittgensteincentre.org/dataexplorer
Levels of educational attainment in in 2010 10 9 8 Mean years of schooling (15+), and sub-regions, 2010 9,0 7 6 5 5,8 5,1 5,1 5,8 6,5 4 3 2 1 0 Eastern Western Middle Northern Southern
East Middle North South Where the data come from Overall levels of education Past & present higher education Future Higher education Mean years of schooling (15+), n countries, 2010 West Nigeria Ghana Cape Verde Gambia Cote d'ivoire Sierra Leone Guinea-Bissau Benin Senegal Guinea Burkina Faso Liberia Mali Niger South Namibia Swaziland Lesotho Algeria Tunisia Egypt Morocco Sudan Equatorial Guinea Gabon Congo DR Congo Cameroon Sao Tome & Principe Central n Republic Chad Zimbabwe Reunion Kenya Zambia Mauritius Tanzania Uganda Malawi Comoros Rwanda Madagascar Somalia Burundi Ethiopia Mozambique 0 2 4 6 8 10
Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western
Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education + Primary incomplete 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western
Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western
Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed + Lower secondary 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western
Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed + Lower secondary + Upper secondary 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western
Proportion of 15+ population by education in 2010 in and sub-regions 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed + Lower secondary + Upper secondary + Post-secondary 5% 4% 3% 2% 9% 6% Southern Middle Eastern Northern Western
and other continents, 2010, proportion of 15+ population by education No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% North America Oceania Europe Latin America Asia
and other continents, 2010, proportion of 15+ population by education 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% No education + Primary incomplete + Primary completed + Lower secondary + Upper secondary + Post-secondary 33% 29% 20% 12% 10% North America Oceania Europe Latin America Asia Year by when other continents achieved 2010 s share of population in higher education 1980-1985 1990-1995 5%
map
The gender gap in population, 1990-2010, and sub-regions 9 Ratio of male to female population 25-65 with higher education 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Southern Northern Western Eastern Middle 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Change across cohorts, 1970 to 2010, and sub-regions 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Proportion with higher education in the 25-29 age group from 1970 to 2010 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western
The gender gap in the 25-29 cohort with higher education, 1985 to 2010, and sub-regions 7 Ratio of male to female population 25-29 with higher education 6 5 4 3 2 1 Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Where the data come from Overall levels of education Past & present higher education Future Higher education The future of higher education according to global trend scenario, and sub-regions 40% Proportion 25-29 with higher education, 1970-2050 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western 0%
The future of higher education according to global trend scenario, and sub-regions In 000s 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 30000 Population 25-29 with higher education, 1970-2050 25000 20000 15000 10000 12.527 7.707 Western Southern Northern Middle Eastern 5000 2.180 2.991 4.869 0 939
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Where the data come from Overall levels of education Past & present higher education Future Higher education Increase in absolute population with higher education: The example of a few countries Population 25-29 with post-secondary education in 4 countries, 2010-2050 (global trend scenario) Ethiopia Mali Mozambique Nigeria 2000 1500 1000 500 0 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 150 100 50 0 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 X 4 X 8 X 9 X 6
Conclusions Higher education: Still a small bubble in most n countries; The proportion with higher education is increasing by years and cohorts; The gender gap is closing but still exists; Strong impact of the increase in population & education on the higher education sector.
Anne Goujon anne.goujon@oeaw.ac.at goujon@iiasa.ac.at