Presented by: David A. Longanecker President, WICHE Knocking at the College Door National Press Club Washington, D.C. March 19, 2008 Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity with support from
Background on Knocking 7 th Edition of WICHE s projections Projections of high school graduates by state and race/ethnicity Only publication to include nonpublic school graduates in projections Actual data from 1991-92 to 2004-05 and projections out to 2021-22 Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Caveat Emptor Assumes existing patterns continue indefinitely Policy changes not explicitly modeled NCLB and other accountability measures New state policy objectives Variations in funding levels that affect progression Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Two Central Themes Changes in total production Escalating diversification Knocking at the College Door - 2008
First Central Theme: Total Production Overall production of high school graduates/demand for postsecondary education National peak in 2007-08 concludes period of rapid expansion Subsequent moderate decline The change in production among regions and states varies greatly Knocking at the College Door - 2008
2021-22 U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates, 1996-97 to 2004-05 (Estimated), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected) 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 1996-97 Knocking at the College Door - 2008 Millions
2021-22 Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by Region, 1996-97 to 2004-05 (Estimated), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected) South West Midwest Northeast 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Knocking at the College Door - 2008 1996-97 Millions
Contribution to the Nation s Change in Total High School Graduates Relative to 2004-05, by Region 300,000 West Midwest Northeast South 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0-50,000-100,000 2009-10 (5-yr Chg.) 2014-15 (10-yr Chg.) 2019-20 (15-yr Chg.) Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK WA ME OR IA CT IL MD CA MO KY NM OK TN SC MS -4.99% to 5% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK WA ME CA OR NE MN WI IA IL MO MI KY OH WV PA NY MA RI CT MD NM OK TN SC MS -5% to -9.99% -4.99% to 5% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK CA OR WA MT WY ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO MI KY OH WV PA NY NH VT ME MA RI CT MD NM OK LA* MS TN SC -10% or less -5% to -9.99% -4.99 to 5% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK CA OR WA MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO MI KY OH WV PA VA NY NH VT ME MA RI CT NJ MD DE DC NM OK LA* MS TN AL SC -10% or less -5% to -9.99% -4.99% to 5% 5.01% to 10% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK CA OR WA ID MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY NH VT ME MA RI CT NJ MD DE DC NM OK AR LA* MS TN AL SC NC -10% or less -5% to -9.99% -4.99% to 5% 5.01% to 10% 10.01% to 20% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK CA WA OR NV ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO IN MI KY OH WV PA VA NY NH VT ME MA RI CT NJ MD DE DC HI AZ NM TX OK AR LA* MS TN AL GA SC FL NC -10% or less -5% to -9.99% -4.99% to 5% 5.01% to 10% 10.01% to 20% Greater than 20%
Second Central Theme: Diversification Escalating diversification traditionally underrepresented populations are fastest-growing By 2014-15, non-whites project to account for 42.1% of public graduates nationally, an increase of 7.5 percentage points Non-Whites projected share of high school enrollments in 2014-15 = 47.9% Driven by steep declines in White non- Hispanics and by rapid growth in minority populations, especially Hispanics Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Composition of Public High School Graduates in the U.S. by Race/Ethnicity, 2004-05 (Actual); 2009-10 and 2014-15 (Projected) 1% 2004-05 5% 14% 14% 66% American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-hispanic Hispanic White non-hispanic
Composition of Public High School Graduates in the U.S. by Race/Ethnicity, 2004-05 (Actual); 2009-10 and 2014-15 (Projected) 1% 2004-05 2009-10 6% 5% 14% 15% 66% 61% 17% 14% American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-hispanic Hispanic White non-hispanic
Composition of Public High School Graduates in the U.S. by Race/Ethnicity, 2004-05 (Actual); 2009-10 and 2014-15 (Projected) 1% 2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 6% 5% 14% 7% 15% 14% 66% 61% 57% 21% 17% 14% American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-hispanic Hispanic White non-hispanic
Cumulative Percent Change in U.S. Public High School Graduates Relative to 2004-05 by Race/Ethnicity 120% 100% 89.9% 80% 62.7% 60% 54.3% 40% 32.5% 32.0% 20% 16.0% 11.8% 13.7% 6.6% 14.9% 0% -1.4% 3.1% 2.5% -20% -10.6% -13.4% 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-hispanic Hispanic White non-hispanic
Countdown to Majority-Minority Regions The West is projected to be majorityminority in 2010 The South follows by 2017 States As of the class of 2005: California, D.C., Hawaii, New Mexico, & Texas Additions by the class of 2015: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, & Nevada Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Proportion of Minority Public High School Graduates In 2014-15 (Projected)
Proportion of Minority Public High School Graduates In 2014-15 (Projected) VT SD WV 10% or less
Proportion of Minority Public High School Graduates In 2014-15 (Projected) MT ND NH VT ME ID SD WI WY IA UT IL IN OH WV KY 10% or less 10.01% to 20%
Proportion of Minority Public High School Graduates In 2014-15 (Projected) ID MT WY ND SD MN WI MI NH VT ME MA UT NE IA IL IN OH WV PA KS MO KY 10% or less 10.01% to 20% 20.01% to 30%
Proportion of Minority Public High School Graduates In 2014-15 (Projected) AK OR WA ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO MI OH IN KY WV NH VT NY PA ME MA RI CT NJ TN AR LA* AL 10% or less 10.01% to 20% 20.01% to 30% 30.01% to 40%
Proportion of Minority Public High School Graduates In 2014-15 (Projected) AK OR WA ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY NH VT DE DC ME MA RI CT NJ OK AR LA* TN AL SC NC 10% or less 10.01% to 20% 20.01% to 30% 30.01% to 40% 40.01% to 50%
Proportion of Minority Public High School Graduates In 2014-15 (Projected) AK CA WA OR NV ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO IN MI KY OH WV PA VA NY NH VT ME MA RI CT NJ MD DE DC HI AZ NM TX OK AR LA* MS TN AL GA SC FL NC 10% or less 10.01% to 20% 20.01% to 30% 30.01% to 40% 40.01% to 50% 50.01% or greater
Factors Influencing Shifts Births White births minus non-white births = 1.25M in 1990; 514K in 2004 The fertility rate (2004) among Hispanic women = 1.67 times the rate among White, non-hispanic women Domestic migration Movement from Midwest and Northeast to West and South Schooling options Nonpublic and homeschools have higher proportions of White non-hispanic students Immigration 7.6M new residents immigrated between 2000 and 2006 Most from Latin America, especially Mexico Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Challenges Ahead for States, School Districts, and K-12 Schools How will those facing declining enrollments preserve quality despite reduced enrollment-based funding? How will those facing continued growth provide capacity and preserve quality in the face of that growth? How can they better prepare students for college and the workforce, especially those from the fastest-growing populations (Hispanics and Asians/Pacific Islanders) for whom English may be a second language? Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Challenges Ahead for States and Postsecondary Institutions How can they enhance access and best ensure the success of all students, especially those who have been historically underserved? How can they preserve choice so that able students have a realistic chance to enroll at the college that best meets their needs and interests? How might colleges adjust to decreasing demand, but from an ever more diverse pool of recent high school graduates? Knocking at the College Door - 2008