Global Monthly January.... of potential output Output gap (RHS) Growth...... -. -.
January World Advanced economies EMDEs age points - - EMDE commodity exporters EMDE commodity importers Advanced economies World 7 6 - United States Germany 6 8
January US$, billions,, 9 6 - of GDP FDI 6 Portfolio Other Total (RHS) - Index, = 8 6 Energy Metals Agriculture 8 6 June.... GDP Consumption Investment Exports
January. June..... United States Euro Area Japan Increasing Unchanged Decreasing 7 Non-financial enterprises Households Nominal GDP - -6 H Q
January age points 6 India Turkey Mexico Others - percent 8 percent 9 percent Baseline 9 Ratio Price-to-earnings ratio Long-term interest rates (RHS) 9 97 9 9 98 9 96 969 976 98 99 997
January of potential GDP - - - - - 6 9% confidence band Output gap 9 of potential GDP - - - - - 6 9 9% confidence band Output gap of potential GDP - - - EMDEs EMDE commodity exporters EMDE commodity importers 6 9 6
January of potential GDP - - - - - 6 9 9% confidence bands Output gap of potential GDP - - - - - LAC SSA of potential GDP.. -. - - - EAP ECA SAR 7
January Global Economic Prospects - January : Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long? Commodity Markets Outlook - October Global Economic Prospects - June : A Fragile Recovery Cross-Border Spillover Effects of the G Financial Regulatory Reforms: Results from a Pilot Survey Can We Measure the Power of the Grabbing Hand?: A Comparative Analysis of Different Indicators of Corruption Bank Ownership: Trends and Implications Selection, Firm Turnover, and Productivity Growth: Do Emerging Cities Speed up the Process? Are International Banks Different? Evidence on Bank Performance and Strategy Public Infrastructure and Structural Transformation Quasi-Fiscal Deficits in the Electricity Sector of the Middle East and North Africa: Sources and Size Business Environment and Firm Performance in European Lagging Regions The Impact of Hurricane Strikes on Short-term Local Economic Activity: Evidence from Nightlight Images in the Dominican Republic The Global Costs of Protectionism How Do Multinationals Report Their Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts? Evidence from Global Reporting Initiative Data Capital and Labor: The Factor Income Composition of Top Incomes in the United States, 96-6 Doing Business : Reforming to Create Jobs World Development Report : LEARNING to Realize Education s Promise Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development ( change, y/y) ( change y/y) Recent releases: December 7, - January 7, Upcoming releases: January 8, - February, Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Eurozone /7/7 GDP Q.6 %. %.% United Kingdom /6/8 GDP Q.7 % Japan /7/7 GDP Q. %.%. % United States /6/8 GDP Q. % Cyprus /8/7 GDP Q.9 %.9% Belgium /9/8 GDP Q.7 % Iceland /8/7 GDP Q. %. % France //8 GDP Q. % Turkey //7 GDP Q. % 8.%.% Spain //8 GDP Q. % Ireland //7 GDP Q. % 6.% Mexico //8 GDP Q. % New Zealand //7 GDP Q.7 %. %.8% Austria //8 GDP Q.6 % Luxembourg //7 GDP Q. %.9% Indonesia //8 GDP Q.6 % United States //7 GDP Q. %. % Japan //8 GDP Q. % Netherland //7 GDP Q.%.8 % Italy //8 GDP Q.7 % France //7 GDP Q. %. %.8 % Germany //8 GDP Q.8 % Denmark //7 GDP Q. %.% Czech Republic //8 GDP Q. % United Kingdom //7 GDP Q.7 %.9% Hungary //8 GDP Q.9 % Singapore //8 GDP Q. %.% Netherland //8 GDP Q. % Czech Republic //8 GDP Q. %. %.7 % Poland //8 GDP Q.9 % Romania //8 GDP Q 8.6 % 6.% Bulgaria //8 GDP Q.9 % Croatia /6/8 CPI DEC. %. % Portugal //8 GDP Q. % Ireland /6/8 CPI NOV. %.6 %. % Greece //8 GDP Q. % United Kingdom /6/8 CPI NOV. %. % Euro Area //8 GDP Q.6 % Austria /7/8 CPI DEC. %. % Malaysia //8 GDP Q 6. % Euro Area /7/8 CPI DEC. %. %. % Thailand /9/8 GDP Q. % 8
January ( change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) Industrial production, sa Q Q Q Q Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov World.8..9.7...6...9.8.......9 Advanced economies...9.6...6........... Emerging market and developing economies...9.9.7..6...6..6......8 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -..........7........9 Other EMDE.. 7. 6.9.9...8. 6.7.9 6. 6. 6. 6. 6..7.6 East Asia and Pacific.8.9 6. 7. 6..6 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6.6 6..8 6..9.7 East Asia excl. China.6.6.8.8. 8. 6..6. 6..8.6.9.6.7.9.. Europe and Central Asia.. 9.8. 7.8..8.... 6..9 6.6 6. 6..6.6 Latin America and Caribbean -.8 -. -..8.8.9... -.7 -.......7. Middle East and North Africa -. -7..7.6. 9... 7..7....7. 9. 8.7.6 South Asia.. 6...7 6......6...9 6..7. - Sub-Saharan Africa -..9 -.8 -... -.9. -. -. -. -. -.7 -.. -.8.. Inflation, sa World...7.6......7........ Advanced economies...8.6.....8..9....... Emerging market and developing economies..7.7....7......8.9.... Commodity-exporting EMDEs.7..........7....... Other EMDE...7...9.8.6....9...... East Asia and Pacific....6.9...7....9...6... Europe and Central Asia.9.....7.6...7.6.7...6.8.6.9 Latin America and Caribbean.7..8..7..7.7....9..9..6.. Middle East and North Africa.8.7..6...8...9.7.9....6.. South Asia...7....8.7..9.8.9.9...9.8.9 Sub-Saharan Africa.6..7.7..8.6.8.7.9......8..7 ( change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) Q Q Q Q Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Exports, nominal, US$, sa World -.6 -. 9. 8.9.8... 7.7.9.9. 7.6..9.9..6 Advanced economies -. -.8 6. 8.. 7..6. 8..7.. 6...7.9.9. Emerging market and developing economies -.9-6..7.....6 6.8 7. 8.9.9 9.7.8....7 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -. -9. 9.9 8.9 -..6 8. 6.6 9... 9. 9.8 6.7 6.7.7. - Other EMDEs -.7 -.6 9...6.7 -.6 7...8 7.. 9.6 8.6 9. 9... East Asia and Pacific -. -6.... -.6 -. 8.8..7 9.. 9.. 8. 9.9..8 Europe and Central Asia -.7-6. 9.7. -. 6. 7.6...9.7 9... 9.9 6..6 - Latin America and Caribbean -.8 -..8 6. -.7.6.9.6. 7. 9....... 8. Middle East and North Africa -7. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -..7 7.6. -.9..... 6. -.7 -.... -. 6.7 Sub-Saharan Africa -6.9 -.7 7.9.9 -. 8...6.8 9.8 9...9.8 9.. - - Imports, nominal, US$, sa World -6.9 -..8. 6. -. -.7... -6.. 7.. 6..8 7.8.8 Advanced economies -.7 -...... 9.6. 9..9...7 9. 9..9. Emerging market and developing economies -. -6. 7...7 -.6 -.. 6.6. -..6 8. 7.7..7..6 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -. -7..8 8.. -6. -..8. 8.8 -. 9.7 7... -.. - Other EMDEs -. -. 9.6. -....9.8 8.8. 7..6.. 7. 6. 7.6 East Asia and Pacific -. -.6.8.9 -...7 7..8..6 7.9..7.9 8.9 7.9 8.6 Europe and Central Asia -.8 -..9.6. 8. 8..6 9.9.7 7.8.9.6 6. 6.8 9.6 9. - Latin America and Caribbean -9.9-7.. 6. -9...6... -.. 6. 7. 9..9.9 8.8 Middle East and North Africa. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -. -..7..9 -.6.8.9.6....6 9.6 9. 7.7. 8. Sub-Saharan Africa -7.7 -.9-7.9 - - - -. - - - - - - - - - - - International reserves, US$ World -.7 -. -.7.7..7 -..7..7.8.9..8.... Advanced economies.. -...9.7..6......9.. -..6 Emerging market and developing economies -.7 -. -.7...7 -.8.....7..7.6... Commodity-exporting EMDEs -. -. -....7.......... - - Other EMDEs -. -.7 -.... -......9.6.9.8... East Asia and Pacific -. -7. -.7..7. -.....8.8...6... Europe and Central Asia -6.8. -..9.. -.6.9.6. -.....6... Latin America and Caribbean -.. -...7...6. -..8..8.6. -. -. -. Middle East and North Africa -7.7 -.7 -. -. -.8 -. -.6 -.6. -. -. -. -. -. - - - South Asia.9.6 -.... -.....7..7... -.. Sub-Saharan Africa -.7 -.7.7..8 -.8.. -.. -. -.6. -.8 - - - 9
January ( change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period ) Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) MRV Q Q Q Q Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec U.S. federal funds effective..9.67.9..7.6.6.76.88.88.......7.8 ECB repo................... US$ LIBOR -months..7.7...7....6.9.6....6..6.7 EURIBOR -months -. -.6 -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. U.S. -year Treasury yield..8..6..7...8...9....6... German Bund, year.....6.8....6.7.9.....7.6.6 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan emerging markets 8 9 7 6 98 Asia 7 69 6 8 7 66 7 67 66 6 6 7 8 6 Europe 8 6 7 8 7 6 9 Latin America and the Caribbean 7 7 8 6 6 6 7 9 8 Middle East 6 7 96 6 8 6 96 77 8 8 8 8 8 98 6 Africa 8 89 86 8 87 8 76 8 9 78 67 6 9 Stock indexes (end of period) Global (MSCI) 99 9 6 87 9 6 6 78 78 87 97 Advanced economies ($ index) 66 76 8 96 79 89 8 878 9 96 96 96 7 77 United States (S&P ) 8 6 9 67 79 6 6 8 7 7 9 7 68 67 67 Europe (S&P Euro ) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 76 6 7 6 6 7 7 Japan (Nikkei ) 887 9 899 6 76 9 9 899 997 986 997 97 6 98 7 76 76 Emerging market and developing economies (MSCI) 79 86 98 8 8 99 96 98 978 66 88 8 9 8 8 EM Asia 9 7 87 9 7 8 8 7 7 87 87 EM Europe 9 6 96 8 6 6 6 EM Europe and Middle East 8 68 79 9 9 6 7 68 68 6 79 79 EM Latin America & Caribbean 8 6 97 88 6 6 6 6 7 87 97 89 79 88 88 Exchange rates (LCU / USD) Advanced economies Euro Area.9.9.9.9.8.8.9.9.9.9.9.89.87.8.8.8.8.8.8 Japan. 8.8.6..96.9..96.9..6.9. 9.78.8.9.8.96.96 Emerging market and developing economies Brazil..9...6...........9.6.9.9 China 6.9 6.6 6.89 6.86 6.67 6.6 6.89 6.87 6.9 6.89 6.88 6.8 6.77 6.67 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.9 6.9 Egypt 7.7. 7.8 8. 7.77 7.7 8.68 7. 7.76 8.9 8. 8. 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.68 7.8 7.8 India 6. 67.9 66.97 6.8 6.9 6.7 68.6 67. 6.8 6. 6.6 6. 6. 6.97 6.6 6.7 6.8 6. 6. Russia 6. 67.6 8.67 7.7 8.9 8. 9.76 8. 7.8 6. 6.88 8. 9.7 9. 7.66 7.76 8.97 8.6 8.6 South Africa.77.7...9.6.6.7.9.6..9...7.7.6.9.9 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. MRV = most recent value..7 9.7..7 6.6 7..8...6. 9. 7.9 6.. 7. 7.6 7. 7. MRV Q Q Q Q Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Energy 6 68 6 6 7 69 69 6 67 6 6 6 6 68 7 76 78 78 Non-energy 8 8 86 8 8 86 8 87 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 86 8 8 Agriculture 89 89 9 88 87 87 9 9 89 88 89 87 88 86 87 87 87 87 87 Metals and minerals 68 6 78 7 8 8 76 79 79 7 7 7 76 8 8 8 8 8 8 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 8 6 8 6 6 6 Gold ($/toz) 6 9 9 8 78 7 9 67 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 6 Baltic Dry Index 7 676 98 8 9 9 76 9 979 86 96 6 8 69 7 Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. MRV = most recent value. Indexes, =.