Coppell Independent School District Fall 2013 Demographic Study Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for the Future
Economic Conditions Texas has had a job growth of 31.5 percent since 1995. Almost triple the nationwide growth of 12 percent. (City Journal Winter 2013) DFW, Houston and Austin Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) created more than 230 thousand jobs in the last 12 months. (Metrostudy) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 81 consecutive months. (http://www.thetexaseconomy.org/economic-outlook/ ) DFW is the 4 th largest MSA in the country behind only NYC, LA and Chicago (City Journal Winter 2013) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (August 2013) - U.S. 7.6% - Texas 6.5% - DFW MSA 6.2% - Dallas County 6.4% - Coppell 5.4% Apartment vacancy rate is below 6% which has led to a record high average monthly rent of $861, a 3.4% increase over last year. DFW builders put up 5,861 new homes in the last quarter, a 27 percent increase year over year. (Dallas Business Journal) 2
Dallas/Fort Worth Job Market Annual Job Growth By Sector as of August 2013 Source: Texas Workforce Commission 3
DFW Housing Market Starts and Closings Annual Starts & Closings 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Annual Starts Annual Closings 21,013 18,855-3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 4
DFW Housing Market Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 69,256 20% Average Price 226,901 9% Median Price 174,500 10% Listings 23,422-14% DOM 52-25% Monthly Supply 3.2-28% Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center for NTREIS 5
Region 10 and 11 Growth 2007/08 2012/13 Negative 0-100 100-250 250-750 750-1500 > 1500 6
Regional Enrollment Trends Region 11 Region 10 Rank District Name 2007/08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/08 2012/13 Growth 1 NORTHWEST ISD 11,898 17,813 5,915 2 DENTON ISD 20,892 25,782 4,890 3 FORT WORTH ISD 78,857 83,491 4,634 4 KELLER ISD 29,458 33,365 3,907 5 EAGLE MT SAGINAW ISD 14,165 17,731 3,566 6 MANSFIELD ISD 29,696 32,883 3,187 7 LEWISVILLE ISD 49,636 52,522 2,886 8 ARLINGTON ISD 62,863 65,005 2,142 9 BIRDVILLE ISD 22,063 24,189 2,126 10 BURLESON ISD 9,047 10,581 1,534 11 HURST EULESS BEDFORD ISD 20,392 21,819 1,427 12 LITTLE ELM ISD 5,409 6,399 990 13 WHITE SETTLEMENT ISD 5,716 6,540 824 14 EVERMAN ISD 4,746 5,401 655 15 LAKE WORTH ISD 2,853 3,256 403 16 CASTLEBERRY ISD 3,422 3,814 392 17 KRUM ISD 1,506 1,895 389 18 AUBREY ISD 1,634 2,006 372 19 WEATHERFORD ISD 7,264 7,635 371 20 ALEDO ISD 4,444 4,729 285 Rank District Name 2007/08 Enrollment 2012/13 Enrollment 2007/08 2012/13 Growth 1 FRISCO ISD 27,418 42,703 15,285 2 RICHARDSON ISD 34,180 38,046 3,866 3 PROSPER ISD 2,675 5,502 2,827 4 ALLEN ISD 17,102 19,891 2,789 5 WYLIE ISD 10,743 13,425 2,682 6 MESQUITE ISD 36,640 39,128 2,488 7 IRVING ISD 32,746 35,028 2,282 8 MCKINNEY ISD 22,426 24,444 2,018 9 GRAND PRAIRIE ISD 25,317 26,928 1,611 10 FORNEY ISD 7,015 8,571 1,556 11 PLANO ISD 53,683 55,188 1,505 12 ROCKWALL ISD 13,064 14,483 1,419 13 LOVEJOY ISD 2,501 3,650 1,149 14 DALLAS ISD 157,804 158,915 1,111 15 WAXAHACHIE ISD 6,561 7,652 1,091 16 COPPELL ISD 9,948 10,997 1,049 17 GARLAND ISD 57,169 58,056 887 18 DUNCANVILLE ISD 12,467 13,271 804 19 PRINCETON ISD 2,674 3,435 761 20 ROYSE CITY ISD 4,144 4,905 761 7
Regional Enrollment Trends 2011/12-2012/13 8
DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings 2Q13 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,767 2,240 4,287 10,268 2 Northwest ISD 1,193 1,133 1,619 22,641 3 Denton ISD 1,172 995 2,538 14,448 4 Keller ISD 869 890 1,375 3,364 5 Lewisville ISD 900 797 1,499 2,010 6 Prosper ISD 868 761 1,682 15,419 7 Dallas ISD 880 706 2,175 7,340 8 Eagle Mtn. Saginaw ISD 726 651 1,759 20,046 9 Mansfield ISD 644 634 836 5,723 10 Little Elm ISD 669 630 939 6,996 11 McKinney ISD 732 621 1,315 3,036 12 Allen ISD 631 548 1,023 1,447 13 Plano ISD 398 385 925 1,383 14 Rockwall ISD 529 377 1,705 8,073 15 Crowley ISD 406 368 2,009 8,229 16 Wylie ISD 339 350 502 4,155 17 Forney ISD 403 329 1,528 11,458 18 Fort Worth ISD 347 326 1,225 4,801 19 Burleson ISD 373 315 838 3,706 20 Anna ISD 353 303 416 3,735 38 Mesquite ISD 91 108 149 4,612 39 Coppell ISD 113 105 129 1,056 40 Crandall ISD 85 102 121 842 Totals 20,384 18,098 48,859 274,328 9
New Housing Activity Cypress Waters 3 Multi-Family locations opened in 2Q13 with 676 units Phase 1 of the retail development is expected to be opening in 2Q14 Single Family locations are scheduled to begin later in the development Developers are estimating up to 10,000 residences when completed 10
Apartment and Mobile Home Yields CREEKSIDE MOBILE HOME PARK VILLAS AT COPPELL THE REGENCY BY THE LAKE nm TOWN CENTER TOWN CREEK COTTONWOOD CREEK nm MEADOWRIDGE nm TOWNHOMES TOWNLAKE OF COPPELL AUSTIN OAK PARK VILLAGE nm nm WILSON WINDANCE TOWNHOMES nm GOLDEN TRIANGLE MOBILE HOME PARK MOCKINGBIRD nm VILLAS OF VISTA RIDGE DENTON CREEK PINKERTON nm SUMMITT TOT_YLD 0.129032-0.356436 0.356437-0.713542 0.713543-1.103093 THE ENCLAVE nm CAMDEN VALLEY PARK TREE TOP VILLAS CONDOS CASA VALLEY THE VILLAS CONDOS REFLECTIONS AT VALLEY RANCH SANTA ROSA 11
New Housing Activity 80 Starts Closings Housing Inventory 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Starts 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Closings 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 3 16 16 27 22 1Q 26 18 11 20 15 2Q 30 30 43 29 25 2Q 15 30 25 24 31 3Q 26 24 44 46 3Q 11 32 49 26 4Q 29 30 5 20 4Q 30 23 41 33 Total 88 100 108 122 47 Total 82 103 126 103 46 12
Annual Closing Distribution 1Q13 Ran k Top 5 Subdivisions 1Q13 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Subdivision Annual Starts Quarter Starts Annual Closings Quarter Closings 1 Villas at Emerald Park 17 1 39 3 2 Royal Oaks (Coppell) 21 0 21 1 3 Grand Estates at Northlake Hills 9 2 12 4 4 Alexander Court (Coppell) 8 0 8 1 5 Hemingway Court TH 30 10 7 3 TOTALS 113 21 96 15 13
Vacant Developed Lots 1Q13 Top 5 Subdivisions 1Q13 (Ranked by Vacant Developed Lots) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Red Hawk Villas 48 0 2 Main Street Coppell 19 0 3 Grand Estates at Northlake Hills 17 0 4 Willow Park (Coppell) 17 0 5 Hemingway Court TH 8 0 TOTALS 126 0 14
Future Lots 1Q13 Westhaven Blackberry Farm Top 7 Subdivisions 1Q13 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Futur Rank Subdivision VDL e 1 Westhaven 0 297 2 Blackberry Farm Addition 0 82 3 Ridgecrest Estates 0 26 4 Carter Addition 0 22 5 Bellacere Addition 0 8 6 Petterson Addition 0 7 7 Villas of Southwestern 0 7 TOTALS 84 449 15
New Housing Activity 16
New Housing Activity 625 lots The Bridges at Las Colinas 415 lots 260 lots The Bridges at Las Colinas 415 Single Family Homes Phase 1 is under construction with 166 lots Future phases = 260 and 625 lots Total lots = 1,300 17
New Housing Activity Easthaven 58 Single Family Homes Still in planning stages Westhaven 297 Single Family Homes Still in planning stages Westhaven Easthaven 18
New Housing Activity Belmont Landing 55 Single Family Homes Lots delivered in 3Q14 Homes in the $400 s Belmont Landing 19
New Housing Activity Old Town Phase II Old Town Phase II 64 Single Family Homes Patio Homes site plan approved July 13 20
New Housing Activity Magnolia North Addition 28 Single Family Homes Plan approved on June 2013 Homes in the 500 s Denton Tap Road 21
Enrollment History Year (Oct.) EE Pre K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total Percent 2009/10 36 130 689 707 686 708 798 775 772 799 815 824 797 728 718 9,982 2010/11 46 125 664 730 726 705 745 825 844 802 823 866 813 793 710 10,217 235 2.4% 2011/12 53 130 761 751 776 795 751 798 881 870 852 870 834 797 757 10,676 459 4.5% 2012/13 55 120 695 801 809 807 861 823 863 898 897 918 841 838 773 10,999 323 3.0% 2013/14 48 137 736 787 862 843 876 901 892 871 904 921 899 865 817 11,359 360 3.3% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Enrollment has grown 1,377 since 2009. Growth rate has averaged 3.3% since 2009. 22
Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth Year (Oct.) EE Pre K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2009/10 36 130 689 707 686 708 798 775 772 799 815 824 797 728 718 9,982 2010/11 46 125 664 730 726 705 745 825 844 802 823 866 813 793 710 10,217 235 2.4% 2011/12 53 130 761 751 776 795 751 798 881 870 852 870 834 797 757 10,676 459 4.5% 2012/13 55 120 695 801 809 807 861 823 863 898 897 918 841 838 773 10,999 323 3.0% 2013/14 48 137 736 787 862 843 876 901 892 871 904 921 899 865 817 11,359 360 3.3% 2014/15 48 137 764 826 832 894 887 925 962 910 896 956 904 905 844 11,690 331 2.9% 2015/16 48 137 767 837 869 868 928 932 994 993 931 972 936 920 883 12,015 325 2.8% 2016/17 48 137 787 852 898 912 909 981 1,001 1,020 1,026 1,004 949 938 876 12,338 323 2.7% 2017/18 48 137 818 875 908 932 957 959 1,052 1,028 1,053 1,086 985 957 908 12,703 365 3.0% 2018/19 48 137 845 908 930 947 975 1,008 1,029 1,079 1,063 1,122 1,061 995 931 13,078 375 2.9% 2019/20 48 137 868 934 963 968 992 1,023 1,086 1,055 1,115 1,128 1,098 1,073 971 13,459 381 2.9% 2020/21 48 137 884 951 991 1,005 1,017 1,044 1,096 1,115 1,091 1,184 1,104 1,109 1,043 13,819 360 2.7% 2021/22 48 137 907 961 1,008 1,037 1,055 1,071 1,123 1,128 1,152 1,158 1,158 1,116 1,080 14,139 320 2.3% 2022/23 48 137 914 994 1,013 1,047 1,085 1,110 1,153 1,155 1,166 1,216 1,132 1,170 1,087 14,427 288 2.0% 2023/24 48 137 935 999 1,054 1,062 1,099 1,143 1,189 1,187 1,194 1,230 1,190 1,144 1,139 14,750 323 2.2% Total Percent *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year 23
Ten Year Forecast By Elementary Campus Current Fall Projections Campus Name 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Austin Elementary 586 597 590 613 630 653 666 681 688 703 721 Cottonwood Creek El 534 549 578 575 581 589 594 598 605 611 618 Denton Creek El 589 613 609 621 624 648 676 707 740 769 793 Lakeside Elementary 602 600 597 605 599 608 614 626 637 649 658 Mockingbird Elementary 654 653 634 644 645 655 660 664 674 669 661 Pinkerton Elementary 413 422 454 499 550 604 670 738 806 875 940 Town Center Elementary 533 557 557 573 606 611 627 629 636 634 637 Valley Ranch Elementary 698 734 765 785 793 804 797 799 806 814 829 Wilson Elementary 581 588 602 609 606 626 629 635 632 624 620 Elementary Total 5,190 5,313 5,386 5,524 5,634 5,798 5,933 6,077 6,224 6,348 6,477 Elem. Growth 219 123 73 138 110 164 135 144 147 124 129 24
Ten Year Forecast By Middle School & High School Campus Current Fall Projections Coppell Middle East 825 891 984 1,006 1,008 985 1,029 1,047 1,083 1,091 1,104 Coppell Middle North 870 887 933 958 983 971 979 990 1,006 1,028 1,057 Coppell Middle West 972 990 1,001 1,083 1,142 1,215 1,248 1,265 1,314 1,355 1,409 Middle Total 2,667 2,768 2,918 3,047 3,133 3,171 3,256 3,302 3,403 3,474 3,570 Middle Growth 9 101 150 129 86 38 85 46 101 71 96 Coppell High School 3,058 3,184 3,285 3,347 3,490 3,658 3,817 3,978 4,044 4,137 4,231 New Tech High School 444 425 426 420 446 451 453 462 468 468 472 High School Total 3,502 3,609 3,711 3,767 3,936 4,109 4,270 4,440 4,512 4,605 4,703 High School Growth 133 107 102 56 169 173 161 170 72 93 98 TOTAL 11,359 11,690 12,015 12,338 12,703 13,078 13,459 13,819 14,139 14,427 14,750 Student Growth 360 331 325 323 365 375 381 360 320 288 323 25
Summary Economy Texas economy continues to out-perform the nation with 7 of the top 10 job growth cities in the country. DFW #1 job growth city in the country in number of jobs created. DFW #2 in new home starts with more than 20,426 starts over the last 12 months. DFW market showing strong growth in sales and increasing values with the average home value up more than 9%. Coppell ISD Coppell ISD new home construction positioned for strong growth with several new developments to be delivered in the next 6-12 months. Five year enrollment growth of 1,719 students. Ten-Year enrollment growth 3,391 students. Pinkerton Elementary and Coppell West Middle catching most of the growth. Coppell West and East Middle schools over 1,000 enrollment in 2016. High School enrollment approaching 3,500 in the year 2017. District enrollment will likely exceed 13,000 fall 2017. 26