Brian T. Prescott Non-traditional No More State Leaders Meeting October 16-17, 2008 Denver, CO

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Transcription:

Brian T. Prescott Non-traditional No More State Leaders Meeting October 16-17, 2008 Denver, CO

INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS

60 Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults U.S. & OECD Countries, 2006 25 to 34 45 to 54 40 20 0 Source: Organisation for Economic Co operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2008

Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults U.S., 2006 70 60 Age 25 34 Age 45 54 50 40 30 20 Arkansas Nevada Louisiana Oklahoma Alabama Texas West Virginia Kentucky Tennessee Alaska Mississippi New Mexico Wyoming Idaho Arizona South Carolina Georgia Oregon Indiana Ohio California Florida Missouri North Carolina Maine Utah Michigan Kansas Colorado Washington Hawaii Wisconsin Illinois South Dakota Montana Nebraska Virginia Vermont Pennsylvania Rhode Island Delaware New Hampshire Iowa Connecticut New Jersey Maryland New York Minnesota DC Massachusetts North Dakota Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey (ACS)

WORKFORCE NEEDS & DEMOGRAPHICS

Changing Workforce Needs: The Projected Percentage Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required Short Term On the Job Training (No Formal Award) 11.4% Moderate Term On the Job Training (No Formal Award) 8.5% Long Term On the Job Training (No Formal Award) 8.7% Work Experience in Related Occupation (No Formal Award) 9.6% Postsecondary Vocational Award 17.7% Associate s Degrees 25.1% Bachelor's Degree 19.6% Postsecondary Degree Plus Work Experience 16.6% Master s Degree 18.8% Doctorate Degree 30.8% Professional Degree 19.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35%

Changing Workforce Needs: Employment Growth in the U.S. from 2004 to 2014 by Level of Education Required (in Thousands) Short Term On the Job Training (No Formal Award) 5,891 Moderate Term On the Job Training (No Formal Award) 2,473 Long Term On the Job Training (No Formal Award) 960 Work Experience in Related Occupation (No Formal Award) 1,057 Employment Requiring Some Level of Postsecondary Education 8,526 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

50 Projected Percent Change in Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Training or a College Degree from 2004 to 2014 40 30 49.3 20 10 32.2 25.5 21.7 20.1 16.5 0 Nevada Colorado Arkansas South Dakota New Jersey United States Note: U.S. projections are for 2006 to 2016 Source: ACINet

80,000 Median Earnings by Occupational Category and Age Group, United States, 2006 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 38,596 60,941 55,862 42,658 68,050 66,019 25,392 40,424 37,174 34,533 49,768 49,463 10,157 20,314 15,235 15,235 30,470 25,392 12,188 17,266 14,626 23,361 36,564 36,564 18,282 30,470 25,392 0 Management, Business, Financial Ops Computer, Mathematical, Engineering, Architecture, Science Education, Public Service Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Services Sales and Office Farming, Fishing, Forestry, Hunting Construction, Extraction, Maintenance Production, Transportation, and Material Moving 18 34 35 54 55+

Employment by Occupational Categories, Age Group, and Educational Attainment, United States, 2006 30% 25% 18 34 35 54 55+ 21.8% 28.2% 24.0% 27.3% Associate s & Higher 20% No Postsec Degree 15% 10% 8.1% 15.2% 15.5% 8.9% 10.1% 4.4% 3.6% 1.0% 12.1% 14.8% 14.7% 10.7% 10.5% 12.6% 5.3% 5.2% 0.6% 7.6% 14.1% 13.5% 5% 4.0% 0.7% 4.6% 0% Management, Business, Financial Ops Computer, Mathematical, Engineering, Architecture, Science Education, Public Service Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Services Sales and Office Farming, Fishing, Forestry, Hunting Construction, Extraction, Maintenance Production, Transportation, and Material Moving

Changing Demographics Virtually all the growth in the working age U.S. population is among minority groups, especially Hispanics. The only growing segment of the White non Hispanic population occurs among those at or approaching retirement age. Given educational attainment gaps, we face the possibility of having a much less welleducated workforce.

Projected Change in Arkansas Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2006 25 (in Thousands) 60,000 40,000 White non Hispanic Black non Hispanic Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander 33,797 281,563 20,000 18,078 19,645 0 4,711 175 1,008 1,694 512 4,319 487 1,017 7,777 499 2,580 7,142 2,036 3,432 20,000 40,000 24,733 6,015 17,620 2,435 41 32,137 2,193 0 17 18 24 25 44 45 64 65 and Older

Projected Change in Colorado Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2006 25 (in Thousands) 417,310 100,863 100,536 83,053 White non Hispanic Black non Hispanic Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander 150,000 100,000 66,315 14,460 2,740 20,414 13,997 1,278 12,818 12,848 3,138 9,861 5,148 941 32,881 3,589 12,449 2,739 12,684 50,000 0 33,964 43,135 33,096 50,000 100,000 0 17 18 24 25 44 45 64 65 and Older 99,293

70,000 50,000 Projected Change in Nevada Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity, 2006 25 (in Thousands) 50,983 White non Hispanic Black non Hispanic Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander 44,129 66,717 142,355 54,196 30,000 10,000 2,880 4,846 316 17,589 2,288 1,262 5,677 9,457 9,508 18,901 1,556 13,318 10,000 591 416 356 401 30,000 50,000 70,000 45,594 64,117 65,257 27,651 0 17 18 24 25 44 45 64 65 and Older

Percent of Adults with College Degrees (Associate and Higher) By Race/Ethnicity and Age United States (2005 06) 70 68.0 60 61.4 52.4 50 47.8 40 43.5 43.4 40.5 39.1 30 20 25.7 17.1 19.5 26.8 26.0 22.4 19.0 19.3 23.6 23.7 17.1 25.0 10 0 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 White non Hispanic Black non Hispanic Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Source: OECD Education at a Glance; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS (PUMS)

Change in Educational Attainment from 2000 to 2020 as a Result of Projected Changes in Race/Ethnicity (25 to 64 Year Olds) 8,000,000 6,000,000 7,378,402 Given current educational attainment disparities by race/ethnicity and projected changes in the population, it is likely that the segment of our population with less than a high school diploma will grow more than any other unless successful intervention takes place. Less than High School High School Some College Associates Bachelor s 4,834,077 Graduate/Professional 4,000,000 3,656,845 2,368,743 2,000,000 1,096,163 1,382,160 0 Source: NCHEMS, As America Becomes More Diverse: The Impact of State Higher Education Inequality

PARTICIPATION PATTERNS

Participation Patterns Adult students are more likely to be motivated to participate by immediate, pragmatic reasons. The participation rate of adult students has fallen. Those who begin postsecondary education as adults are more likely to take a non linear path to their bachelor s degree.

Reasons for Enrollment in Colleges and Universities by Age Group (Percent) 100 93 75 78 80 86 85 82 Age 16 24 Age 25 34 Age 35 64 82 72 59 50 45 46 37 31 41 25 11 13 24 15 0 Maintain or Improve Skills or Knowledge Learned Completely New Skills Employer Required or Recommended Receive Help Change Job Promotion or Pay or Career Raise Get or Keep Certification or License Source: Adapted from Paulson and Boeke, 2006, p.19

250 Participation of Adults Age 25 49 per 1,000 Adults Age 25 49 with Only a High School Diploma by Sector, 2005 200 Four Year Two Year 150 104.6 100 63.0 119.1 104.1 53.4 44.1 50 0 93.8 80.1 55.9 60.8 21.2 28.3 Colorado United States South Dakota Nevada Arkansas New Jersey Source: NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey 2005 06; U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Change Over Time in Adult Participation in Postsecondary Education (Percent of 25 49 Year Olds Enrolled as a Percent of 25 to 49 Year Olds without a Bachelor's Degree United States) 8% 7% 7.2% 6.9% 6% 5.7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1991 2001 2007 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File; US Census Bureau, Decennial Census ; NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey

Change Over Time in Adult Participation in Postsecondary Education (Percent of 25 49 Year Olds Enrolled as a Percent of 25 to 49 Year Olds without a 4% 3% 2% Bachelor's Degree 1991 to 2007) 1% 0% 1% 0.6% Arkansas South Dakota New Jersey Nevada Colorado 0.8% 2% 3% 4% 2.2% 2.5% 5% 4.9% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File; US Census Bureau, Decennial Census; NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey

75 Percentage of 1999 2000 First Time Bachelor s Degree Recipients (According to Multiple Institution Attendance Patterns by the Age They Began Postsecondary Education) 73 69 65 67 50 54 53 50 41 57 32 34 25 11 12 14 15 7 9 9 16 20 0 2 Year Public Students Who Co Enrolled 2 Year Public Students Who Transferred 4 Year Students Who Co Enrolled 4 Year Students Who Transferred 4 Year Students Who Enrolled in Public 2 Year Source: Paulson and Boeke, 2006, p.22 Age 18 or Younger Age 19 23 Age 24 29 Age 30 or Older

Serving Ready Adults Most states and the U.S. cannot reach the international competitiveness benchmark of having 55% of their population with a postsecondary degree without focusing some of their efforts on reaching adult learners. Ready adults represent the most efficient population to serve. Already have experience in postsecondary education. Require a fraction of the courses that other adults, who may be starting from scratch, would.

Population Age 25 64 with Some College but No Postsecondary Degree, 2006 Number Percent Arkansas 316,498 21.7 Colorado 577,116 21.8 Nevada 338,353 24.7 New Jersey 807,282 17.0 South Dakota 81,771 20.8 Source: www.higheredinfo.org

Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%) Arkansas 835,336 202,622 632,714 309,266 11,198 312,250 15,613 111.1% Number of Individuals to Match Best Performing Countries (55%) Number of Individuals (Age 25 44) Who Already Have Degrees Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025) Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production Additional Residents with College Degrees from Net Migration Additional Degrees Needed Additional Degrees Needed per Year (Currently Produce 16,357 in All Sectors) Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor s Degree Production Needed (in Public Sector Only)

Educational Attainment in Arkansas (Percent) Current, In 2025 with Current Degree Production, and Best Performing Countries in 2025 60 55.0 40 33.7 34.8 26.5 20 0 Current Percentage of Adults Age 25 64 with College Degrees, 2005 Projected Percentage in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production Projected Percentage in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production and Net Migration Percentage Needed to Reach Best Performing Countries by 2025

How Can Arkansas Reach International Competitiveness? Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration, and Improved Performance on Student Pipeline Measures Degrees Produced 2005 25 with Current Rate of Production 309,266 Additional Degrees from Population Growth 1,384 Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College Educated Residents Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in College Going Rates by 2025 16,592 7,905 25,530 Pipeline Performance Is Cumulative Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student Total Degrees Produced 2005 25 If All of the Above 88,165 446,074 186,640 from adults Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%) 632,714 Source: 2005 ACS, Public Use Micro Data Samples 200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000

Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%) Colorado 1,493,441 636,437 857,004 690,584 393,794 227,373 11,369 41.9% Number of Individuals to Match Best Performing Countries (55%) Number of Individuals (Age 25 44) Who Already Have Degrees Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025) Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production Additional Residents with College Degrees from Net Migration Additional Degrees Needed Additional Degrees Needed per Year (Currently Produce 35,930 in All Sectors) Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor s Degree Production Needed (in Public Sector Only)

Educational Attainment in Colorado (Percent) 80 Current, In 2025 with Current Degree Production, and Best Performing Countries in 2025 63.4 60 55.0 45.7 48.9 40 20 0 Current % of Adults Age 25 64 with College Degrees, 2005 Projected % in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production Projected % in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production and Net Migration % Needed to Reach Best Performing Countries by 2025

How Can Colorado Reach International Competitiveness? Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures Degrees Produced 2005 25 with Current Rate of Production 690,584 Additional Degrees from Population Growth Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College Educated Residents Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in College Going Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student 17,518 21,301 52,538 123,343 393,794 Pipeline Performance Is Cumulative Total Degrees Produced 2005 25 If All of the Above 1,299,077 Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%) 857,004 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 Source: 2005 ACS, PUMS

Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%) Nevada 1,057,411 193,902 863,509 169,402 206,630 487,477 24,374 330.5% Number of Individuals to Match Best Performing Countries (55%) Number of Individuals (Age 25 44) Who Already Have Degrees Additional Production Needed (2005 to 2025) Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production Additional Residents with College Degrees from Net Migration Additional Degrees Needed Additional Degrees Needed per Year (Currently Produce 8,844 in All Sectors) Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor s Degree Production Needed (in Public Sector Only)

Educational Attainment in Nevada (Percent) 60 Current, In 2025 with Current Degree Production, and Best Performing Countries in 2025 55.0 40 28.6 29.6 20 18.9 0 Current % of Adults Age 25 64 with College Degrees, 2005 Projected % in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production Projected % in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production and Net Migration % Needed to Reach Best Performing Countries by 2025

How Can Nevada Reach International Competitiveness? Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures Degrees Produced 2005 25 with Current Rate of Production 169,402 Additional Degrees from Population Growth Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College Educated Residents Reaching Best Performance in High School Graduation Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in College Going Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance in Rates of Degree Production per FTE Student Total Degrees Produced 2005 25 If All of the Above 25,021 29,839 51,249 93,803 206,630 Pipeline Performance Is Cumulative 575,945 287,564 from adults Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%) 863,509 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 Source: 2005 ACS, PUMS

Summary America s economic future is closely tied to how well we can produce a highly educated, high skill labor force. Adult learners are vital to achieving international competitiveness Targeting ready adults is efficient, although identifying them is a significant challenge The recession as an opportunity?

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