Progression to Higher Education of Apprentices and FE Learners in London Hugh Joslin and Sharon Smith University of Greenwich 1
Advanced Level Apprentice Progression LONDON DOMICILE LEARNERS 6 COHORTS 2004-2009 2
Advanced Level Apprentice Population Change Tracked cohort 2004 compared to 2008 Overall, London domicile Advanced Apprentices grew by 85% between 2004 and 2008 3
London Apprentice Progression Advanced Level Apprentice Completion Year Tracked Population 2004-05 Number 2005-06 Number 2006-07 Number 2007-08 Number 2008-09 Number 2009-10 Number 2010-11 Number 3 years tracking HE Immediate Progression % HE Progression All tracked to date Total Number to HE % HE Progression Number of years tracked 2004-05 1625 0 25 50 30 25 15 10 75 4.6% 155 9.5% 7 yrs 2005-06 1985 * 45 40 35 20 15 90 4.6% 160 8.2% 6 yrs 2006-07 1925 0 35 45 45 35 80 4.2% 160 8.3% 5 yrs 2007-08 2300 0 60 80 45 140 6.2% 185 8.1% 4 yrs 2008-09 3005 15 105 105 230 7.6% 230 7.6% 3 yrs 2009-10 2890 20 140 160 5.6% 2 yrs * Less than 5 4
London Apprentice Immediate Progression - trends 2004-05 2008-09 Change 2004-2008 GOR Tracked Population % of Total Population % HE progression Tracked Population % of Total Population % HE progression % Population change Diff HE progression East Midlands 2850 10% 9.3% 3980 9% 9.5% 40% 0.2% East of England 2245 8% 7.8% 3510 8% 7.0% 56% -0.8% Greater London 1625 6% 4.6% 3005 7% 7.6% 85% 3.0% North East 2055 8% 16.6% 3230 8% 8.7% 57% -8.0% North West 5170 19% 13.4% 6775 16% 10.2% 31% -3.3% South East 3585 13% 7.2% 5955 14% 6.2% 66% -1.0% South West 2970 11% 9.8% 5000 12% 7.5% 68% -2.3% West Midlands 3065 11% 10.4% 5510 13% 8.0% 80% -2.4% Yorkshire and The Humber 3565 13% 11.7% 5210 12% 8.5% 46% -3.2% Scotland 60 0% 1.7% 75 0% 3.9% 33% 2.2% Wales 155 1% 11.6% 210 1% 4.3% 35% -7.3% Total 27345 100% 10.4% 42780 100% 8.1% 56% -2.3% Each cohort tracked for three years 5
London Advanced Apprentice HE Progression Delivery 6
London FE Level 3 HE progression Learners in London FECs Level 3 Cohort 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2005-06 Immediate 2006-07 Immediate 2007-08 Immediate 2008-09 Immediate 2009-10 Immediate Identify Level 3 students in their last year of study Identify Main Aim of student with rules for priority one record per student Track students through ILR for Level 4+ non prescribed HE study Track students through HE dataset for Level 4+ prescribed HE study 7
FE Level 3 HE progression Progression by age, gender and ethnicity % into non-prescribed and prescribed higher education % Delivery e.g. % HE in FE and % university Timing of progression for each Breakdown by London Borough Breakdown by programme area Breakdown by HE mode of attendance Progression by individual colleges and universities Breakdown of main HE subject areas Progression by Deprivation profile 8
Features of the tracked population 9
Programme Breakdown of first and last tracked FE cohorts % of Total Tracked pop % Population change between 2009-10 and 2005-06 FE Level 3 Qualification Type 2005-06 2009-10 Access to HE 10% 10% 17% GCE A2 Level/IB 19% 16% 1% GCE AS Level 10% 9% 4% BTEC (Full Time) 15% 24% 91% NVQ 9% 20% 164% Other Voc FT 10% 3% -65% Other Voc PT 28% 19% -19% All Level 3 100% 100% 18% 10
Borough breakdown of Level 3 FE cohort tracked in 2005-06 11
FE Qualification by Borough 2005-06 Tracked Cohort FE Qualification Type GCE A GCE A Access BTEC FT Level Level AS NVQ A/A2 only Vocational FT Vocational PT Grand Total Borough Barnet 10% 10% 22% 10% 9% 9% 30% 100% Bexley 19% 13% 7% 4% 13% 8% 37% 100% Brent 9% 13% 21% 8% 10% 11% 29% 100% Bromley 12% 16% 8% 4% 13% 7% 41% 100% Hackney 10% 18% 21% 11% 6% 10% 24% 100% Harrow 5% 10% 39% 9% 6% 11% 20% 100% Kensington and Chelsea 11% 10% 13% 10% 5% 14% 38% 100% Kingston upon Thames 9% 9% 14% 13% 10% 7% 38% 100% Sutton 8% 14% 7% 7% 20% 4% 39% 100% Waltham Forest 11% 14% 28% 9% 6% 16% 17% 100% 12
HE Progression National Context Mean young participation rate by UK region for POLAR3 quintiles (HEFCE) Region Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5 All North East 16 24.8 33.1 41.6 56.7 29.4 North West 16.5 24.7 32.8 42.1 56.6 32.5 Yorkshire and the Humber 15.7 24.7 32.6 41.5 55.3 30 East Midlands 15.6 25.2 32.5 41.5 55.4 32 West Midlands 16.4 24.8 32.7 42.1 55.4 32.2 London 18.6 25.7 33.2 41.6 59.7 43.1 South East 15.6 25 32.8 41.9 57.5 36.6 South West 16 25 32.8 41.6 56.4 32.1 England 16.1 25 32.8 41.8 57.3 34.2 13
HE progression for London FEC Level 3 learners five cohorts 14
HE progression by Age 15
HE progression trends Number Change, 2009-10 - 2005-06 % Number Change 2009-10 - 2005-06 Age Group All Tracked Population Difference Non prescribed HE change HEFCE HE change Total HE All Tracked Population Difference Non prescribed HE change HEFCE HE change Total HE change 17-19 years 3985 165 570 735 21% 110% 6% 8% 20-24 years 710 35 10 45 16% 24% 1% 3% 25 years+ 2250-205 -145-350 16% -31% -10% -16% Grand Total 6945-5 435 430 18% -1% 4% 3% 16
HE Delivery 17
HE progression by FE Qualification Type FE Level 3 Cohort year - % HE Progression Rate, FE Qualification Type % point change (tracked to HE for one year) 2005-2009 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Access to HE 56.8% 54.9% 53.2% 50.6% 49.5% -7.3% GCE A2 Level/IB 70.4% 66.8% 68.6% 67.8% 65.0% -5.4% GCE AS Level 13.8% 11.5% 9.9% 9.2% 6.6% -7.2% BTEC (Full Time) 44.2% 45.6% 48.1% 49.5% 47.3% 3.1% NVQ 17.8% 15.8% 11.3% 7.7% 7.3% -10.5% Other Vocational Fulltime 48.0% 28.5% 25.2% 23.9% 22.5% -25.4% Other Vocational Parttime 7.1% 7.7% 6.5% 6.8% 7.0% -0.1% All Level 3 34.9% 33.7% 33.6% 32.4% 30.5% -4.4% 18
Immediate HE progression rates by Borough Top ten Boroughs % HE progression Bottom ten Boroughs % HE progression 19
HE Progression and Ethnicity Ethnic group HE Progression rate for each FE cohort when tracked for one year % point Diff 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2009-10 Any other 39% 40% 35% 34% 32% -7% Asian or Asian British - any other Asian background 46% 41% 41% 40% 41% -5% Asian or Asian British Bangladeshi 54% 52% 54% 52% 46% -8% Asian or Asian British Indian 51% 48% 44% 44% 42% -10% Asian or Asian British Pakistani 51% 47% 49% 49% 46% -4% Black or Black British - any other Black background 43% 41% 38% 35% 36% -7% Black or Black British African 48% 47% 45% 44% 40% -8% Black or Black British Caribbean 37% 35% 38% 34% 31% -6% Chinese 48% 47% 45% 44% 47% -2% Mixed - any other Mixed background 37% 35% 39% 35% 35% -2% Mixed - White and Asian 36% 33% 35% 38% 37% 0% Mixed - White and Black African 39% 38% 33% 38% 33% -6% Mixed - White and Black Caribbean 35% 33% 36% 33% 29% -6% not known/not provided 26% 29% 26% 19% 25% -1% White - any other White background 28% 26% 29% 9% 28% 0% White British 21% 20% 20% 20% 19% -2% White Irish 27% 22% 22% 21% 20% -7% Grand Total 35% 34% 34% 32% 30% -5% 20
2005-06 cohort tracked for 5 years FE Level and Mode FE Mode and HE Progression Total Non Total Prescribed Population HE tracked Total HEFCE Funded Number Total HE Number % Non Prescribed HE % HEFCE Funded Number All Level 3 Full Time 23980 165 15070 15235 1% 63% 64% All Level 3 Part Time 14240 1000 1190 2190 7% 8% 15% All level 3 38220 1165 16260 17425 3% 43% 46% 2005-06 Level 3 who progressed to HE: Mode and HE qualification First Degree Foundation Degree HNC/HND NVQ OUG Postgrad Diploma % HE PT Level 3 24% 9% 3% 23% 36% 5% FT Level 3 87% 3% 2% 7% 21
2005-06 FE cohort tracked for five years HE Progression rates by Disadvantage Number out of 4 Disadvantage Indicators POLAR Quintile % HE progression Q1 Low HE 0/4 not participation 39% disadvantaged 38% Q2 39% 1/4 44% Q3 47% 2/4 48% Q4 47% 3/4 51% Q5 High HE participation 45% 4/4 Disadvantaged 41% Grand Total 46% Grand Total 46% % HE Progression Q1 population has grown Overall, around 30% of the tracked cohort live in an area classified as disadvantaged using 3 out of 4 indicators A higher proportion of White students live in a POLAR 3 Q1 area than BME students (57% vs 41%). Conversely, there is a higher proportion of BME Students living in areas who meet 4/4 disadvantage criteria (69% compared to 29% White). 22
2005-06 cohort tracked for five years into non prescribed HE Top Providers 23
2005-06 cohort tracked for five years into prescribed HE Top Providers 24
2005-06 cohort tracked into HE 2006-07 on full-time First Degree course - Achievement Total First % No % % Achieve Unclassified Degree % Achieve Award Lower or Not Achievement Entrants First Degree recorded Award known All FE Level 3 9540 71% 21% 6% 2% By Delivery: FE College 180 62% 26% 10% 2% University 9365 71% 21% 6% 2% By FE Programme: Access 1425 60% 31% 9% BTEC FT 1790 58% 31% 9% 2% GCE A Level A/A2 4450 82% 13% 4% 1% GCE A Level AS only 370 68% 23% 7% 2% NVQ " " " " " Vocational FT* 1295 68% 23% 9% 0% Vocational PT 185 67% 25% 7% 0% National comparison - HEFCE Performance Indicators, Projected Outcomes of FT First Degree entrants (2006-07) All England 324725 77% 14% 3% 1% (an additional 5% were recorded as Transfer) 25
Key Results The 2005-06 cohort tracked for one year had an HE progression rate of 35% and this increased to 46% when tracked for five years. (64% for FT FE and 15% for PT HE) Decline in overall immediate progression rates over the five years for all qualifications except full-time BTEC programmes where there was a 3.1% increase. 11% of students progressing to HE progress to college and 89% progress to university and this proportion has not changed over five years. BME groups of FE learners had higher immediate HE progression rates than White groups of FE learners 71% achieved their First Degree and an additional 6% achieved a lower award such as a Foundation Degree, or HND. 26
Progression to Higher Education of Apprentices and FE Learners in London Hugh Joslin and Sharon Smith University of Greenwich 27