Pathways to Success for Today s Students RBCA Senior Leadership Conference David T. Harrison June 16, 2014
About Central Ohio: One of the largest college towns in America. The most diverse economy in the Midwest. Rising suburban poverty. Strong collaborative spirit among regional leadership with a focused economic development strategy. Recognition among education leaders that our business model has changed. Regional concern about K-12 education.
Three largest institutions by enrollment: Ohio State University: 64,425 Columbus State Community College: 49,876 Cuyahoga Community College: 46,854
The Region s Only Open Access Institution
Ohio s Leader in Online Education 45% STUDENTS WHO TAKE AT LEAST ONE ONLINE COURSE
Net importer of talent, serving students from all 88 Ohio counties.
State of the Industry A number of factors have converged to change the higher education landscape dramatically. Changing competitive landscape Increased student debt Changing perception of value Imbalance of supply & demand
Moody s Investor Service issued a negative outlook for US higher education and not-for-profits. Negative revenues coupled with pressure to increase expenses. Increasing competition, including changing delivery and business models. Flat to declining governmental funding and a move to performance-based funding.
Increasing competition, including changing delivery and business models, adds to the negative outlook. A rapid rise of massive open online courses (MOOCs) is a factor that has accelerated the pace of change in the online delivery models over the last 2 years. A weak economy will affect families willingness and ability to pay for higher education. Federal budget pressures are also a risk. Focus on efficiency of delivery: On-line Competency based Stacked degrees Shorter time to completion Source: Moody s Investors Service, 2014 Outlook for US Higher Education. Wall Street Journal, January 2014. The Chronicle, December & November 2013
Analysts predict that there will be winners and losers among U.S. higher education institutions. Traditional colleges, particularly many that are mid-level but charge high tuition, will lose out to nimbler, cheaper competitors offering degrees on flexible timelines, either in hybrid format or online. Some predict that the bottom 25% of every tier of colleges will disappear or merge in next 10 to 15 years. More than a ¼ of private institutions have suffered a drop in enrollment of 10% or more since 2012. Net-tuition revenue is essentially flat or declining at three-fourths of public colleges and three-fifths of private colleges. Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education, December 2013. New York Times, November 2013.
Analysts predict that there will be winners and losers among U.S. higher education institutions. Apollo Group, Inc. has lost two-thirds of its market value in the past year, and warned that the University of Phoenix is expected to receive accreditation sanctions putting the for-profit school on notice. Apollo announced layoff of 500 workers in addition to downsizing 800 employees in 2012. Enrollment declined 18% and new student enrollment fell 23%. Strayer Education cut its workforce by 20% and closed 20 locations 3 in Ohio (Columbus, Akron & Mason.) Strayer s enrollment reached its peak of 60,700 students in fall of 2010 and steadily declined since then. It was down 17% from previous year and new student enrollment declined 23%. Source: The Washington Post, November 2013. The Wall Street Journal, January 2013. Arizona Central, January 2014. The Chronicle of Higher Education, October 2013.
Government funding will remain constrained. State operating support as a percent of total revenue continues to decline. Performance based funding models being explored nationally. Source: Moody s Investors Service, 2014 Outlook for US Higher Education. Moody s Municipal Financial Ratio Analysis.
Moody s Community College Outlook Enrollment to stabilize just below current levels because of their affordability, as well as the flexibility that allows them to adjust programs to meet local education and workforce training needs. The competitive landscape will place high value on quality, convenience, and relevance. MOOCs, credit for prior learning, and alignment with the labor market will be differentiating factors. Some community colleges will be challenged to adapt to the introduction and expansion of performance-based funding underway in some states. Because enrollment growth is expected to decline, significant new capital investment in the immediate to medium term is unlikely. Colleges who succeed are those whose governance structures allow them to innovate and respond rapidly to new opportunities. Source: Moody s 2012 Medians Report, issued December 2013.
High school graduates will be fewer in number and more diverse. The expected 1% national decrease in public high school graduates between 2007-08 and 2020-21 plays out differently among the states, but is consistently a more diverse population. In the Midwest the projected decrease is 6%. Projections indicate that after peaking at 135,506 in 2008-09, Ohio has begun a fairly significant decline in high school graduate production. Ohio ranks 24 th among all states with an 80% graduation rate but ranks 34 th with the economically disadvantaged student population with a graduation rate of 65%. The state will see an increasingly diverse population, which is mirrored in our service area. Franklin County will see a 107% increase in our Hispanic population, 53% increase in our Asian population and an 87% increase in the multi-racial population. Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core Data, February 2011. The Chronicle of Higher Education, January 2014. Knocking at College Door 2012 report.
Fewer students and families are able or are willing to follow the traditional path to higher education. Currently the average debt for a student attending a public college is $29,400 compared to often more than $100,000 for a private university. Many baccalaureate graduates are underemployed, not earning enough to service college debt. There are 29 million jobs nationally paying $35,00 75,000 a year that require an associate degree or professional certificate. Nearly 30% of Americans with associate degrees now make more than those with bachelor's degrees. Source: Wall Street Journal, January 2014. The Institute for College Access & Success, Gallup. Report from the Center for College Affordability & Productivity. Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements Through 2020; report from Georgetown University.
Regions rich in colleges the Northeast and Midwest have a paucity of students, and the student numbers are growing among populations that don t have a long history of college achievement. Success will lie in providing value to diverse student population needs by offering a variety of pathways to a degree dual enrollment for K-12, baccalaureate 2+2 plans, hybrid online courses, and more co-operative education partnerships with employers.
The Central Ohio Compact: A Regional Strategy for College Completion and Career Success
There is a new American majority on campus. Only 25% of today s college students are traditional. Part-time students rarely graduate. Low-income students and students of color struggle the most to graduate. Students take too many credits and too much time to graduate. Remediation produces few students who ultimately graduate.
Closing the skills gap.
By 2025, 60 percent of the region s adults will have earned a postsecondary certificate or degree.
The Central Ohio Compact A Regional Strategy for College Completion and Career Success Priorities Remediation: eliminate or accelerate Completion: meaningful credentials along the way Transition: completion with a purpose Career Readiness: a good job matters in affordability Principles Acceleration Integration Innovation Action (act, measure, adjust, improve)
The Central Ohio Compact A Regional Strategy for College Completion and Career Success Student Success Results: Dramatically increase the number of students earning a post-secondary credential. Ensure that all college-bound high school graduates are college ready. Increase the number of high school graduates with credit toward a post-secondary credential. Employ specific strategies for working adults, low-income and first generation students, and students of color.
The Central Ohio Compact A Regional Strategy for College Completion and Career Success Economic Impact: Advance the region s need for a highly skilled workforce. Align with regional workforce and economic development efforts, with meaningful measures of success.
The Central Ohio Compact A Regional Strategy for College Completion and Career Success Partnerships Matter: Manage the costs of education for students, families, and taxpayers through 2+2 and 3+1 bachelor s degree programs, shared facilities and services, and integrated planning. Increase the number of community college transfer students earning bachelor s degrees through guaranteed pathways to completion.
Student Success Through Higher Education Partnerships
Student Success Through Higher Education Partnerships
Student Success Through Higher Education Partnerships
Student Success Through K12 Partnerships Reynoldsburg City Schools
Ensure that more youth complete high school, and attain a postsecondary credential with currency in the labor market. Build a system of 9-14 CAREER PATHWAYS, combining high school and community college work.
Student Success Through Industry Partnerships
College & Career Success Through Industry Partnerships
Talent Development Pipeline The Central Ohio Compact Industry Alignment and Regional Infrastructure Postsecondary Degree Preferred Pathways Postsecondary Degree or Baccalaureate Pathway Stackable Certificates Pathways to Prosperity Straight A Grants K12 Dual Enrollment AEP Credits Count Pre-College / Early College or Career Certifications FastPath Nationwide Children s Demo Site Cougar Bridge Employability Certification Contextualized Remediation & Support Services Partnerships with Support Services Barriers to Employability
Students of the New Normal Dramatically changing demographics demands a unique response to students unique needs. High school graduates will be fewer in number and more diverse. Online and compressed credential programs are preferred by most adults. First-generation, low-income, students of color, and new Americans require supportive programs to enhance success. Institutions who can respond to students unique needs are positioned for success.
Partnerships for the New Normal Deep partnerships leverage competition, reduce costs, share risk, and advance innovation. Guaranteed baccalaureate pathways through community colleges reduces uncertainty for families and creates an affordable pathway for all students. Transcripted credit through dual enrollment will enable a growing number of high school graduates reduce time to degree. Partnerships with employers will ensure curriculum currency with workforce needs, and provide pathways for advancement for adult learners. Partnerships are hard. Most institutions won t pull them off in a sustainable way.
Awareness of the New Normal Communication is even more important today, as families seek to understand the New Normal. Only 25% of today s college students are traditional. Most do not have high ACTs or 529s. Planning is an important key to affordability. K12 dual enrollment programs and 2+2 and 3+1 baccalaureate pathways will be the norm for most students.
Value proposition for the New Normal Regional campuses and community colleges are uniquely positioned to meet the educational and economic needs of this new landscape.
Pathways to Success for Today s Students RBCA Senior Leadership Conference David T. Harrison June 16, 2014