Demography Briefing: United States June 9, 1 Dr. Edward Yardeni 51-97-73 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents US Age Wave 3-7 US Population: Numbers US Population: Characteristics 9-1 US Labor Force 11 US Income Shares 1-13 US Fertility Rate 1 US Median Age 15 June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
7 5 Figure 1. AGE COMPOSITION OF LABOR FORCE* (percent) US Age Wave Percent of Labor Force -5 Years & Older (.) 1-3 Year Olds (.) 7 5 19 19 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 * Oldest and youngest Baby Boomers turned 1 in 19 and 19, respectively. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 5 Figure. THE AGE WAVE 5 Percent by Age: Labor Force 1-3 Population 1-3 19 19 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 195 1957 19 197 197 1977 19 197 199 1997 7 1 17 17 3 Note: Oldest and youngest Baby Boomers turned 1 in 19 and 19, respectively. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 3 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
Figure 3. US POPULATION BY AGE (millions) US Age Wave 15 15-3 - -5-5 & Over 3 9 7 75 7 1 7 9 93 9 99 5 11 1 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 15 15 Page / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
US Age Wave. 1.5 Figure. US POPULATION BY AGE (annual change, millions). 1.5 1..5. -.5-1. -3 1..5. -.5-1. 1-1 -1.5-1.5 1.5-5 1.5.5.5 -.5 - -.5 1 1-1 -1 1 5 & Over 1-1 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. -1 Page 5 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
US Age Wave Figure 5. US POPULATION BY AGE (yearly percent change) - - - - - - - - - - -3 - -5-5 & Over 3 9 7 75 7 1 7 9 93 9 99 5 11 1 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. - - - - - - - - - - Page / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
5 Figure. AGE WAVE & INFLATION US Age Wave 11 1 9 7 5 3 3 Age Wave* 3 Inflation Trend** 1 3 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 * Percent of labor force 1-3 years old. ** Five-year moving average of yearly percent change in CPI. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure 7. AGE WAVE & BOND YIELD 13 1 11 1 9 7 Age Wave* 5 Ten-Year Treasury Yield** 3 1 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 * Percent of labor force 1-3 years old. ** Five-year moving average of ten-year government bond yield. Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 7 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
3. 3...... 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. Figure. POPULATION (yearly percent change in 1-month avg) US Population: Numbers Civilian Noninstitutional Working-Age Population 3. 3...... 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.... Total Population 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1... Source: US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.. 3.5 Figure 9. HOUSEHOLD FORMATION (millions). 3.5 3. 3..5 5-year moving average.5.. 1.5 1.5 1. 17 1..5.5. 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.. Page / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
3.9 3. 3.7 3. 3.5 3. 3.3 Figure 1. HOUSEHOLD & FAMILY AVERAGE SIZE US Population: Characteristics Persons Per: Family Household 3.9 3. 3.7 3. 3.5 3. 3.3 3. 3.1 3..9..7 17 3. 3.1 3..9..7...5 17.5. 19 19 19 19 19 195 197 1975 19 195 199 1995 5 1 15. Source: Current Population Reports. 7 Figure 11. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH: US (years) 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 Source: US National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States. Page 9 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
9 Figure 1. MEDIAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE (years) US Population: Characteristics 15 9 7 Men Women 15 7 3 3 1 1 19 19 19 19 19 195 197 1975 19 195 199 1995 5 1 15 Source: Current Population Reports. Figure 13. MARRIAGE & DIVORCE (rate per 1 population) 15 15 Marriages 1 1 Divorces 1 5 5 1 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 Source: US National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States. Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
75 Figure 1. CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE (as a percent of total labor force) US Labor Force 75 7 7 5 5 Male Female 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 7 5 Figure 15. CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE* (percent) Total 7 5 Male Component* Female Component* 15 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 15 * Labor force divided by noninstitutional working-age population. Male and female components are persons that are 1 years and older. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 11 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
115 11 15 1 95 9 5 75 7 5 Figure 1. MEAN INCOME OF HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HEAD (thousands of 1 dollars) US Income Shares Latest data thru: 1 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 1 3 5 7 9 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1-5 - - All* -3 5 + 15-115 11 15 1 95 9 5 75 7 5 * Includes 15- year olds. Source: Bureau of the Census, Income Statistics Branch, unpublished data. 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 Figure 17. NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY AGE OF HEAD (millions) Latest data thru: 17 Under 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 5 + - -5 - -3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 Source: Bureau of the Census, Income Statistics Branch, unpublished data. Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
7 1 19 1 17 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 9 7 1 Figure 1. US Income Shares AGGREGATE MONEY INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLD* (billions of 1 dollars) Latest data thru: 1 - - 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 1 3 5 7 9 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1-5 5 + -3 Under 7 1 19 1 17 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 9 7 1 * Mean income times number of households. Source: Bureau of the Census, Income Statistics Branch, unpublished data. Figure 19. AGGREGATE MONEY INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLD HEAD* (as a percent of total money income) Latest data thru: 1-5 - - 5 + -3 1 1 Under 7 9 71 73 75 77 79 1 3 5 7 9 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1 * Mean income in 13 dollars times number of households. Source: Bureau of the Census, Income Statistics Branch, unpublished data. Page 13 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
. Figure. US FERTILITY RATE (births per 1 women) US Fertility Rate....... 1. 17 1. 1. 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 Source: National Center for Health Statistics and Haver Analytics. 1. Page 1 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
US Median Age 39 37 Figure 1. US MEDIAN AGE OF POPULATION (years) 15 39 37 33 33 31 31 9 9 7 19 19 19 195 197 1975 19 195 199 1995 5 1 15 7 Source: United Nations and Haver Analytics. Page 15 / June 9, 1 / Demography Briefing: United States www.
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