REGIONAL PROFILES Geographic Service Regions Geographic service regions are defined areas of the province that provide a framework for better understanding local factors relating to learning and programming at a regional level. In consultation with stakeholders, regional boundaries were drawn based on dissemination area (DA) boundaries and the area generally served by Comprehensive Community Institutions (CCIs). Regional boundaries for CCIs are meant to approximate general service regions and act as guidelines for planning purposes. CCIs align with service regions in order to enhance strategic planning, achieve access goals, and strengthen partnerships and collaboration. Because it focuses on distance delivery, Athabasca University is not allocated to any particular service region. As a result of boundary changes, regional data presented in this edition of CAPR may not reconcile with that presented in previous iterations. Page 68
Regional Population Population growth is anticipated for all service regions. The increases are expected to be the highest in the major urban areas of Calgary (22%) and Edmonton (20%). In fact, more than 80% of the total provincial population growth of 783,778 is expected be in these two service regions. Anticipated population increases in the other service regions ranged from 18% in the Central region to 7% in the Lakeland and Portage regions. Projected Population Growth by Service Region, All Ages Geographic service Population Change region 2014 2024 # % Calgary 1,528,510 1,871,205 342,695 22% Central 321,551 378,009 56,458 18% Edmonton 1,480,100 1,775,770 295,670 20% Grande Prairie 159,309 182,371 23,062 14% Keyano 80,502 87,505 7,003 9% Lakeland 78,214 83,624 5,411 7% Lethbridge 197,036 222,033 24,998 13% Medicine Hat 113,195 127,932 14,737 13% Northern Lakes 83,053 90,870 7,817 9% Portage 80,223 86,150 5,927 7% Alberta 4,121,692 4,905,470 783,778 19% Notes: Figures may not total due to rounding. Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, 2015. The core post-secondary population (those aged 18 to 34 years) is projected to decline in many service regions. The largest decrease is expected in the Keyano region (-45.5%). Portage (-8.4%) Grande Prairie (-5%) and Lethbridge (-1.5%) regions are also expected to see declines in this age group. Geographic service region Projected Growth by Service Region, 18 34 Years Population Change 2014 2024 # % Calgary 406,193 418,833 12,641 3.1% Central 80,119 83,456 3,337 4.2% Edmonton 404,717 409,152 4,435 1.1% Grande Prairie 44,095 41,903-2,192-5.0% Keyano 28,361 15,460-12,901-45.5% Lakeland 16,697 17,334 637 3.8% Lethbridge 48,855 48,147-709 -1.5% Medicine Hat 26,793 27,490 697 2.6% Northern Lakes 20,933 22,213 1,280 6.1% Portage 20,126 18,427-1,699-8.4% Alberta 1,096,889 1,102,415 5,526 0.5% Notes: Figures may not total due to rounding. Source: Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, 2015. Page 69
High School to Post-secondary Transition by Region High school to post-secondary transition rates varied substantially by region. The proportion of Alberta high school students who transitioned to post-secondary directly after high school (within four years of entering Grade 10) ranged from 29.2% in the Northern Lakes region to 41.1% in the Lakeland region, and the six-year transition rates at the regional level ranged from 42.6% to 64.4%. High school to post-secondary transition rates within the regions have remained stable over time. Geographic service region 2009 10 2010 11 High School Transition Rate by Service Region Four-year 2011 12 2012 13 2013 14 2009 10 2010 11 Six-year 2011 12 Calgary 40.8% 40.9% 42.5% 42.9% 40.9% 61.9% 61.1% 62.1% 61.9% 62.5% Central 33.4% 34.1% 38.4% 38.5% 37.6% 55.4% 55.2% 56.8% 55.2% 57.5% Edmonton 37.7% 38.3% 38.6% 38.7% 38.0% 60.6% 59.3% 60.1% 60.3% 60.8% Grande Prairie 32.7% 34.1% 36.0% 34.5% 31.6% 51.1% 49.4% 51.3% 52.6% 52.6% Keyano 29.9% 34.6% 36.2% 38.2% 32.0% 53.5% 50.2% 54.5% 53.5% 54.9% Lakeland 41.5% 46.4% 46.9% 48.9% 41.1% 63.9% 65.6% 64.7% 63.8% 64.4% Lethbridge 41.2% 39.0% 40.5% 41.2% 40.1% 61.0% 58.8% 61.2% 58.8% 58.3% Medicine Hat 38.6% 39.7% 39.6% 37.5% 37.9% 60.1% 60.5% 58.4% 60.4% 58.2% Northern Lakes 28.9% 25.0% 24.7% 29.5% 29.2% 44.7% 44.4% 46.1% 41.0% 42.6% Portage 33.4% 35.8% 40.1% 40.8% 34.0% 58.6% 57.2% 56.8% 57.4% 57.6% Alberta 37.8% 38.2% 39.6% 40.0% 38.4% 59.3% 58.4% 59.5% 59.2% 59.8% Notes: Results include all public, separate, charter, francophone, and private schools in Alberta with a high school program. Source: Alberta Education 2012 13 2013 14 Page 70
Post-secondary Applications by Region Data demonstrate that Albertans applying to a publicly funded post-secondary institution in Alberta tend to apply to institutions in the region in which they reside (based on their postal code at the time of application). This is the case for every service region except the Lakeland region, where a higher proportion of applicants applied to institutions in the Edmonton region than those in Lakeland region. Applicants from other provinces in Canada tend to apply to Athabasca University or other institutions in large urban centres. In fall 2014, Athabasca University attracted the most non-albertan Canadian applicants (37%), followed by the Edmonton region (34%) and the Calgary region (26%). Internationally, applicants are even more attracted to the major urban centres, with 64% of applicants from outside Canada applying to the Edmonton region, and 35% to the Calgary region. WHERE STUDENTS ARE APPLYING FROM Calgary Central Post-secondary Applications by Region, Fall 2014 Edmonton Grande Prairie WHERE STUDENTS ARE APPLYING TO Keyano Lakeland Lethbridge Medicine Hat Northern Lakes Portage Athabasca University Calgary 85% 2% 12% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 8% 100% Central 29% 47% 29% 0% 0% 2% 7% 2% 0% 0% 7% 100% Edmonton 7% 2% 87% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 7% 100% Grande Prairie 14% 4% 34% 42% 0% 1% 3% 1% 8% 1% 10% 100% Keyano 16% 1% 30% 1% 48% 1% 3% 0% 1% 2% 11% 100% Lakeland 11% 8% 44% 0% 0% 40% 4% 1% 0% 2% 9% 100% Lethbridge 18% 2% 12% 0% 0% 1% 71% 2% 0% 0% 6% 100% Medicine Hat 25% 3% 16% 0% 0% 1% 16% 52% 0% 0% 7% 100% Northern Lakes 4% 2% 22% 7% 0% 2% 1% 0% 61% 4% 6% 100% Portage 8% 3% 39% 0% 0% 9% 2% 0% 2% 43% 7% 100% Other Provinces 26% 2% 34% 1% 0% 3% 4% 1% 0% 0% 37% 100% Outside Canada 35% 1% 64% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0% 2% 100% Notes: The sum of the rows/columns will not equal the total, as students may have applied to more than one region. Source: Alberta Advanced Education Application Submission Initiative (ASI). Total Page 71
Post-secondary Enrolment by Regions Enrolment changes varied across regions. Enrolments in Calgary, Edmonton, Northern Lakes and Athabasca University increased consistently, whereas Central, Keyano, Lakeland, Grande Prairie, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat and Portage regions showed decreasing enrolments in general. Service region Enrolment (FLE) by Service Region 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13 2013-14 2014-15 % change 2010 11 to 2014 15 Calgary 54,984.6 56,419.8 57,640.7 58,193.0 58,089.3 6% Central 5,609.0 5,366.1 5,297.3 5,249.1 5,310.5-5% Edmonton 66,163.6 65,008.7 67,006.7 66,473.6 67,502.1 2% Grande Prairie 2,013.8 1,929.1 1,953.4 1,967.6 1,946.7-3% Keyano 1,414.7 1,331.3 1,339.3 1,384.2 1,313.2-7% Lakeland 2,249.8 2,215.9 2,302.6 1,913.5 1,920.0-15% Lethbridge 11,022.1 11,070.9 10,705.3 10,658.3 10,685.4-3% Medicine Hat 2,547.5 2,482.1 2,422.4 2,122.9 2,062.3-19% Northern Lakes 1,088.1 1,128.1 1,250.5 1,306.6 1,239.4 14% Portage 989.9 1,005.8 958.0 798.2 808.7-18% Athabasca University 7,892.1 7,874.8 8,267.9 8,503.9 8,366.0 6% Alberta 155,975.3 155,832.6 159,144.1 158,570.9 159,243.6 2% Notes: Table does not include data for the Banff Centre. Source: Source: Alberta Advanced Education Learner and Enrolment Reporting System (LERS) Page 72