The Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 2008 Exit Polls of the Presidential Primary and National Elections in the City of Los Angeles Results of the LCSLA National Election Exit Poll: City,, and Non NOT FOR PUBLICATION OR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS THE THOMAS AND DOROTHY LEAVEY CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF LOS ANGELES LCSLA 2008 Exit Polls of the Presidential Primary and National Elections in the City of Los Angeles Results of the LCSLA National Election Exit Poll: City,, and Non General Report As of November 6, 2008 PREPARED BY: Fernando J. Guerra, Ph.D., Leavey Center Director, Associate Professor of Political Science and Chicana/o Studies, Co Principal Investigator, 2008 LCSLA Exit Poll Studies, 310 338 4565 Jennifer L. Magnabosco, Ph.D., Associate Director and Senior Research Associate, The Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles, Co Principal Investigator, 2008 LCSLA Exit Poll Studies; 310 338 1819; jmagnabo@lmu.edu Brianne Barclay, M.A., Research Associate, The Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles, Co Investigator, 2008 LCSLA Exit Poll Studies, 310 338 1779; brianne.barclay@lmu.edu
The Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 2008 Exit Polls of the Presidential Primary and National Elections in the City of Los Angeles Results of the LCSLA National Election Exit Poll: City,, and Non The Los Angeles Votes for President: Exit Polls of the 2008 Presidential Primary and National Elections in the City of Los Angeles project is being conducted by Loyola Marymount University's (LMU) Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles (LCSLA) Co Principal Investigators Fernando Guerra, Ph.D., LCSLA Center Director and LMU Associate Professor, Political Science and Chicana/o Studies; Jennifer Magnabosco, Ph.D., LCSLA Associate Director and Senior Research Associate; Stephen A. Nuño, Ph.D., former LCSLA Research Associate and current Assistant Professor, Political Science, Northern Arizona University; and Mara Marks, Ph.D., LMU Assistant Professor, Urban Studies, and LCSLA Senior Research Fellow; Co Investigator Brianne Barclay, M.A. LCSLA, Research Associate; Faculty Affiliates Matt Barreto, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Political Science, University of Washington and LCSLA Research Scholar; Richard Fox, Ph.D., LMU Associate Professor, Political Science; Lance Blakesley, Ph.D., LMU Professor, Political Science; and Robert Singleton, Ph.D., LMU Associate Professor, Economics; LCSLA s Administrative Assistant/Communications Coordinator, Anysia Beck; LCSLA work study students, and over 300 LCSLA student researchers. The project is supported by a research grant from The John Randolph Haynes and Dora Haynes Foundation. The 2008 Exit Poll project is part of LCSLA s longitudinal effort to 1) implement a new sampling methodology called the racially stratified homogenous precinct approach and 2) study the relationships between voting, policy and policy initiative preferences; precinct qualities; racial and ethnic relations; community relations and services; civic participation; quality of life; and demographics. Two seminal articles have been published based se efforts. Controversies in Exit Polling: Implementing a Racially Stratified Homogeneous Precinct Approach, was published in PS: Political Science & Politics (Vol. 39, No. 2, April 2006, 477 483) by LCSLA s researchers, Matt A. Barreto, Fernando J. Guerra, Mara A. Marks, Stephen A. Nuño, and Nathan D. Woods. Are Precincts Created Equal? The Prevalence of Low Quality Precincts in Low Income and Minority Communities, will be published in December 2008 in Political Research Quarterly by Matt A. Barreto, Mara A. Marks and Nathan D. Woods. The 2008 LCSLA Presidential General Exit Poll was conducted on November 4, 2008. 2,686 surveys were collected with a margin of error of ±1.89 percent. Nearly 200 LMU students distributed and collected two versions of the anonymous exit poll surveys in two languages (English and Spanish) in 50 randomly and ethnically represented precincts in the city of Los Angeles and entered data for the results reported here. Final topline results of Los Angeles Votes for President: Exit Polls of the 2008 Presidential Primary and National Elections in the City of Los Angeles, Presidential Primary Exit Poll Results can be found at www.lmu.edu/csla. Discussion of the 2008 Presidential Primary and LCSLA s 2008 Presidential Primary Exit Poll Initial results can be found on itunes: February 7, 2008, LCSLA s 2008 Urban Lecture Series panel, Post Primary Election Results & Commentary, and in various media citations on www.lmu.edu/csla. About LCSLA The Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles was established in 1996 to assist students, the university, and the community at large to become agents for that leads to social justice. Using Los Angeles as a laboratory for understanding the urban experience, LCSLA has become a university leader in conducting regional urban studies; providing educational experiences for students and the community; and convening policy dialogues about the state of Los Angeles and the region. LCSLA supports the LMU mission: the encouragement of learning, the education of the whole person, the service of faith, and the promotion of justice. Research. Action. Justice. About LMU Founded in 1911, Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles is the eighth largest of the nation s 28 Jesuit universities with nearly 5,500 undergraduate students and more than 3,000 graduate and law students. LMU generates more than $250 million annually in direct economic activity and supports more than 8,300 full time, permanent jobs through direct and indirect employment. More than 70 percent of LMU alumni live, work and volunteer in the Los Angeles region. For more LMU news, visit: www.lmu.edu.
The Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles 2008 Exit Polls of the Presidential Primary and National Elections in the City of Los Angeles Results of the LCSLA National Election Exit Poll: City,, and Non N = 2686 City Non Proposition 8 City Vote for President Vote for President Vote for President Gay marriage ban Obama McCain Obama McCain Obama McCain Yes No City 100% 81% 19% 75% 25% 84% 16% 34% 66% Gender Male 48% 79% 21% 75% 25% 82% 18% 33% 67% Female 52% 82% 18% 76% 24% 87% 13% 35% 65% Marital Status Married 52% 79% 21% 77% 23% 80% 20% 39% 61% Single 48% 84% 16% 73% 27% 89% 11% 32% 68% Race/ 55% 79% 21% 74% 26% 83% 17% 21% 79% 15% 98% 2% 100% 0% 98% 2% 51% 49% /Latino 24% 81% 19% 76% 24% 84% 16% 53% 47% 6% 72% 28% 83% 17% 67% 33% 36% 64% Race and Gender men 28% 78% 22% 76% 24% 81% 19% 22% 78% women 27% 79% 21% 73% 27% 85% 15% 20% 80% men 6% 98% 2% 100% 0% 98% 2% 48% 52% women 8% 98% 2% 100% 0% 98% 2% 55% 45% Latino men 10% 79% 21% 74% 26% 81% 19% 52% 48% Latino women 14% 83% 17% 79% 21% 86% 14% 55% 45% men 3% 74% 26% 91% 9% 66% 34% 43% 57% women 3% 69% 31% 73% 27% 68% 32% 29% 71% Age 18 29 9% 90% 10% 87% 13% 92% 8% 26% 74% 30 44 34% 83% 17% 74% 26% 89% 11% 30% 70% 45 64 39% 79% 21% 74% 26% 83% 17% 37% 63% 65 + 19% 79% 21% 80% 20% 78% 22% 37% 63% Education Not a college graduate 37% 81% 19% 74% 26% 85% 15% 47% 53% College graduate 63% 81% 19% 76% 24% 85% 15% 26% 74% Annual Household Income Less than $40,000 23% 85% 15% 79% 21% 87% 13% 44% 56% $40,000 to $99,999 39% 80% 20% 73% 27% 84% 16% 37% 63% $100,000 or more 39% 81% 19% 76% 24% 85% 14% 24% 76% Parent with Child Under 18 Yes 28% 78% 22% 69% 31% 85% 15% 45% 55% No 72% 82% 18% 78% 22% 84% 16% 30% 70% Sexual Orientation Homosexual/Bisexual 9% 92% 8% 93% 7% 92% 8% 14% 86% Heterosexual 91% 80% 20% 73% 27% 86% 14% 36% 64% Political Ideology Liberal 55% 96% 4% 95% 5% 97% 3% 17% 83% Moderate 23% 83% 17% 79% 21% 85% 15% 40% 60% Conservative 22% 43% 57% 31% 69% 53% 47% 76% 24% Party Affiliation Democrat 57% 97% 3% 96% 4% 98% 2% 29% 71% Republican 18% 22% 78% 12% 88% 32% 68% 66% 34% Other 25% 85% 15% 84% 16% 85% 15% 24% 76% When Vote Was Decided Today/last three days 8% 69% 31% 47% 53% 77% 23% 50% 50% Sometime last week/earlier 92% 82% 18% 77% 23% 86% 14% 33% 67% Religion Protestant 35% 67% 33% 49% 51% 79% 21% 48% 52% Catholic 47% 77% 23% 76% 24% 78% 22% 50% 50% Jewish 18% 78% 22% 77% 23% 80% 20% 17% 83% Evangelical evangelical 38% 11% 63% 15% 85% 3% 97% 98% 2% others 62% 89% 37% 33% 67% 83% 17% 71% 29% Union Households Union HH 46% 85% 15% 78% 22% 90% 10% 34% 66% Not union 54% 79% 21% 74% 26% 82% 18% 35% 65% Military Veteran Households Yes 44% 76% 24% 70% 30% 82% 18% 36% 64% No 56% 85% 15% 81% 19% 88% 12% 34% 66% 2008 Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles Presidential National Election Exit Poll in the City of Los Angeles. November 6, 2008. 50 precincts surveyed. Margin of error is ± 1.89% for City category.
Results of the LCSLA National Election Exit Poll: City,, and Non In the Presidential election, for whom did you vote today? City N = 2570 (54%) John McCain 19% 16% 25% 21% 19% 2% 29% Barack Obama 81% 84% 75% 79% 81% 98% 71% 2008. Margin of error is ± 1.93% for City category. Which TOP 3 qualities do you like most about the Presidential candidate for whom you just voted? Presidential Vote N = 2686 City (47%) (44%) on the (45%) (40%) (52%) (48%) (46%) (68%) (37%) on the (37%) (72%) (50%) (39%) (57%) (54%) McCain (19%) Experience (81%) (49%) on the 2008 Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles Presidential National Election Exit Poll in the City of Los Angeles. November 6, 2008. Margin of error is ± 1.89% for City category. Obama (81%) (73%) on the (51%) (44%) Which ONE issue was MOST important to you in deciding how you voted for President today? City N = 2686 (40%) (38%) (37%) (38%) (34%) (42%) (50%) (39%) 2008 Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles Presidential National Election Exit Poll in the City of Los Angeles. November 6, 2008. Margin of error is ± 1.89% for City category.
Results of the LCSLA National Election Exit Poll: City,, and Non When did you finally decide for whom to vote for President? City N = 2617 (54%) Just today 4% 5% 3% 3% 9% 3% 4% In the last three days 3% 4% 2% 2% 5% 2% 7% Sometime last week 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% Within the last two weeks 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 5% Longer than two weeks 84% 82% 88% 89% 75% 86% 81% Don't know 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 2% Total 99% 99% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 2008 Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles Presidential National Election Exit Poll in the City of Los Angeles. November 6, 2008. Margin of error is ± 1.91% for City category. In deciding your vote for President, how important was his racial background? Presidential Vote City N = 2615 (54%) Very 7% 9% 4% 2% 10% 18% 9% 7% 7% Somewhat 8% 9% 6% 6% 7% 13% 8% 5% 9% A little 10% 11% 8% 8% 10% 14% 18% 7% 11% Not at all 74% 69% 81% 83% 71% 54% 64% 81% 73% Unsure 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% Total 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 101% 101% 2008 Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles Presidential National Election Exit Poll in the City of Los Angeles. November 6, 2008. Margin of error is ± 1.92% for City category. McCain (19%) Obama (81%)
Results of the LCSLA National Election Exit Poll: City,, and Non How did you vote following: Prop. 1A, Safe, Reliable High Speed Passenger Train Bond Act? N = 2242 (56%) Yes 66% 68% 64% 64% 69% 70% 70% No 34% 32% 36% 36% 31% 30% 30% 2008. Margin of error is ± 2.07% for category. How did you vote following: Prop. 3, Children s Hospital Bond Act? N = 2234 (56%) Yes 71% 74% 66% 65% 78% 79% 68% No 29% 26% 34% 35% 22% 21% 32% 2008. Margin of error is ± 2.07% for category. How did you vote following: Prop. 4, Waiting Period and Parental Notification Before Termination of Minor s Pregnancy. Initiative Constitutional Amendment? N = 2275 (57%) Yes 36% 38% 33% 25% 54% 45% 56% No 64% 62% 67% 75% 46% 55% 44% 2008. Margin of error is ± 2.05% for category.
Results of the LCSLA National Election Exit Poll: City,, and Non How did you vote following: Prop. 7, Renewable Energy Generation. Initiative Statute? N = 2189 (56%) Yes 43% 46% 40% 33% 54% 55% 59% No 57% 54% 60% 67% 46% 45% 41% 2008. Margin of error is ± 2.09% for category. (13%) How did you vote following: Prop. 8, Eliminates Right of Same Sex Couples to Marry. Initiative Constitutional Amendment? N = 2381 (58%) (42%) Yes 34% 37% 30% 21% 53% 52% 37% No 66% 63% 70% 79% 47% 48% 63% 2008. Margin of error is ± 2.01% for category. How did you vote following: Measure R, Traffic Relief. Rail Extensions. Reduce Foreign Oil Dependence? N = 2172 (58%) (42%) (56%) Yes 70% 72% 69% 68% 73% 70% 87% No 30% 28% 31% 32% 27% 30% 13% 2008. Margin of error is ± 2.10% for category.
Results of the LCSLA National Election Exit Poll: City,, and Non How did you vote following: Measure J, Local Community College Classroom Repair, Public Safety, Nursing and Job Training Measure? N = 2153 Yes 69% 71% 65% 62% 75% 80% 73% No 31% 29% 35% 38% 25% 20% 27% 2008. Margin of error is ± 2.11% for category. How did you vote following: Measure Q, Safe, Healthy Neighborhood Schools Measure? N = 2135 Yes 65% 69% 59% 54% 78% 79% 78% No 35% 31% 41% 46% 22% 21% 22% 2008. Margin of error is ± 2.12% for category. How did you vote following: Prop. A, City of LA Special Gang and Youth Violence Prevention, After School and Job Training Programs Tax? N = 2108 Yes 65% 71% 56% 55% 74% 82% 80% No 35% 29% 44% 46% 26% 18% 20% Total 100% 100% 100% 101% 100% 100% 100% 2008. Margin of error is ± 2.13% for category.