Report To Fusion.Net January 2015 Survey of Millennials 1901 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 1000 Washington, D.C. 20006 (202) 339 6060 www.bsgco.com
METHODOLOGY This report covers the results of our research: 1,000 total telephone interviews nationwide with a general population sample between the ages of 18 and 34. The interviews were conducted January 6 11, 2015. The margin of error for overall results is ±3.10% and higher among subgroups. The regions are defined as follows: Northeast which represents 17% of the electorate and is defined as anyone living in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, or Vermont. Midwest which represents 22% of the electorate and is defined as anyone living in Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, or South Dakota. South which represents 37% of the electorate and is defined as anyone living in Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, or Texas. West which represents 24% of the electorate and is defined as anyone living in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, Montana, Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, or Washington. #3384 Fusion.Net Millennial Survey 2
POLITICS AND AFFILIATIONS Party Identification Do you consider yourself a strong Democrat, weak Democrat, strong Republican, weak Republican, or an Independent or unaffiliated voter? [IF INDEPENDENT/DON T KNOW] In general, would you say that you lean more towards the? Q8,Q9 Difference +7 +2 +12 +19 +4 +3 +6 +5 +5 +12-7 +10 +53 +47 +12-31 0 +8 +12 Total Democrat 29 25 33 35 29 27 27 27 26 34 23 23 56 51 24 15 24 27 35 Strong Democrat 18 13 23 23 18 17 16 16 16 22 12 16 43 34 11 11 13 19 21 Weak Democrat 11 12 10 13 11 10 11 11 9 11 11 7 13 17 13 4 10 8 14 Total Republican 22 23 21 16 25 24 21 22 21 22 30 13 3 4 12 46 24 19 23 Weak Republican 14 14 14 8 19 14 15 14 14 15 20 8 3 3 5 33 17 14 13 Strong Republican 8 9 7 8 6 9 6 9 8 6 10 6 0 1 7 14 8 6 10 Independent 46 50 43 45 43 47 49 46 50 43 45 59 38 45 60 35 49 49 41 Don t know 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 2 2 5 3 1 4 3 3 5 1 Difference +15 +4 +26 +31 +9 +9 +17 +11 +18 +17-3 +25 +72 +71 +21-39 +5 +17 +20 Democrat w/leaners 50 44 56 60 46 47 51 48 51 51 41 53 81 80 51 24 43 51 54 Republican w/leaners 35 40 30 29 37 38 34 37 33 34 44 28 9 9 30 63 38 34 34 Ind/Don t know w/leaners 15 16 14 11 17 16 15 15 16 15 15 19 10 10 19 13 19 16 11 Likelihood to Vote In 2016, there will be an election for President as well as other offices. How likely are you to vote in that election? Q1 Difference +83 +77 +90 +86 +86 +77 +88 +82 +82 +86 +87 +76 +86 +85 +82 +86 +78 +82 +88 Total Likely to Vote 91 88 95 92 93 88 94 90 91 93 93 88 93 92 91 93 89 90 94 Absolutely certain 49 45 53 47 51 49 49 40 53 58 53 37 53 55 46 50 36 47 62 Very likely 28 30 27 32 31 25 28 33 24 26 29 29 28 26 31 28 30 31 24 Possibly 14 13 15 13 11 15 17 17 14 9 11 21 12 12 14 15 23 13 8 Total Not Likely to Vote 8 11 5 6 7 11 6 8 9 7 6 12 7 7 9 7 11 8 6 Not very likely 4 7 2 4 3 7 2 4 5 3 3 5 3 2 6 3 3 5 4 Not at all likely 4 5 3 2 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 7 4 5 3 4 7 3 2 Don t know 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 #3384 Fusion.Net Millennial Survey 3
Why Unlikely to Vote There are many reasons why someone may not vote. Why do you think you are unlikely to vote? (OPEN END) Q2 N=88 Ranked by I don't care about voting 16 I'm too busy 12 Nothing ever changes 9 My vote doesn't count 9 Don't trust the system 8 I don't trust politicians 6 Don't care about politics 5 I'm a minority party in my state 3 Don't like any of the candidates 3 Don't know enough about the candidates 3 I'm too lazy 1 Don't know/refused 8 *Note: Responses with less than 1% overall are not shown. #3384 Fusion.Net Millennial Survey 4
Vote Motivators Summary Would this make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote or would it not make a difference? Q3-Q6 Much More Somewhat Total More Total Less Somewhat Much Less No Don t Ranked by Much More Likely Likely More Likely Likely Likely Less Likely Likely Diff. know Diff. If you could vote online 32 17 49 8 2 6 42 0 +41 If you could vote via cell phone 24 14 38 13 5 8 48 1 +25 If there was a racially diverse field of candidates 13 13 26 3 2 1 70 1 +23 If there were more young candidates 11 14 24 6 3 3 69 1 +18 Vote Motivators Much More Likely Would this make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote or would it not make a difference? % Much More Likely Much More Q3-Q6 More /Less Ranked by Much More Lkly Lkly Lkly If you could vote online 32 49/8 30 35 34 30 33 32 36 29 30 29 31 44 41 33 27 29 32 36 If you could vote via cell phone 24 38/13 22 26 25 20 29 18 29 19 21 20 28 34 27 26 20 21 26 24 If there was a racially diverse field of candidates 13 26/3 10 16 13 11 13 14 15 12 11 9 14 24 21 14 6 10 14 14 If there were more young candidates 11 24/6 12 9 12 9 10 12 13 8 11 11 11 14 16 10 8 14 9 10 Vote Motivators Total More Likely Would this make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote or would it not make a difference? % Total More Likely Much More Q3-Q6 More /Less Ranked by Much More Lkly Lkly Lkly If you could vote online 32 49/8 45 53 49 46 50 52 56 46 43 45 54 53 56 50 44 47 47 53 If you could vote via cell phone 24 38/13 37 39 37 32 46 34 46 32 33 34 47 41 43 41 32 37 39 38 If there was a racially diverse field of 13 26/3 21 30 26 21 26 30 25 29 24 20 30 37 38 28 15 20 26 31 candidates If there were more young candidates 11 24/6 25 23 26 20 24 27 28 21 21 24 22 27 34 23 17 23 25 25 #3384 Fusion.Net Millennial Survey 5
Vote Motivators No Difference Would this make you much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote or would it not make a difference? % No Difference Much More Q3-Q6 More /Less Ranked by Lkly Lkly If there were more young candidates 11 24/6 69 68 70 67 73 68 69 64 72 75 70 70 64 62 73 73 69 68 71 If there was a racially diverse field 13 26/3 70 73 66 70 75 69 64 69 66 74 77 62 56 60 68 79 72 71 66 of candidates If you could vote online 32 49/8 42 46 39 42 45 42 40 37 45 48 46 35 40 37 42 46 44 43 40 If you could vote via cell phone 24 38/13 48 49 47 48 52 43 52 38 55 56 53 37 42 44 49 51 46 47 50 #3384 Fusion.Net Millennial Survey 6
Preferred 2016 Democratic Nominee I am now going to read some names of potential candidates for the 2016 Democratic nomination for President. Please tell me which candidate you prefer or are leaning toward at this time. Among Q10 Dems Ranked by Hillary Clinton 57 38 31 45 45 35 38 37 36 38 42 32 46 54 50 42 27 35 38 42 Joe Biden 10 9 11 8 7 10 12 7 10 10 9 7 9 19 6 12 10 8 12 8 Elizabeth Warren 10 7 8 7 7 6 7 9 5 8 11 9 7 2 15 6 3 3 7 12 Jim Webb 1 2 3 1 1 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 0 1 3 3 2 1 2 Andrew Cuomo 2 2 2 2 6 2 2 0 2 2 3 3 1 3 1 3 3 2 2 3 Martin O Malley 1 1 2 1 0 1 2 2 3 1 0 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 0 Joe Manchin 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 Don t know 19 38 41 35 34 44 35 41 41 40 33 44 32 21 25 33 52 47 37 32 Preferred 2016 Republican Nominee (Without Mitt Romney) I am now going to read some names of potential candidates for the 2016 Republican nomination for President. Please tell me which candidate you prefer or are leaning toward at this time. Q11 Among N=667 Reps Ranked by Chris Christie 8 14 14 15 29 13 10 11 11 16 18 14 11 24 16 18 11 15 11 18 Jeb Bush 16 12 13 11 5 14 17 9 12 13 13 11 19 7 10 12 15 13 12 12 Rand Paul 14 11 15 7 8 7 14 13 12 8 13 12 11 7 15 13 8 8 11 15 Paul Ryan 14 9 11 7 5 14 9 10 12 6 9 10 10 6 7 10 12 11 10 7 Mike Huckabee 12 7 8 6 6 6 8 7 7 6 9 10 2 3 4 7 11 8 9 5 Ted Cruz 8 4 6 2 4 3 5 2 6 2 2 4 3 3 2 3 6 6 4 3 Rick Santorum 4 2 1 3 1 2 2 4 3 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 3 Don t know 25 40 32 48 41 42 35 45 37 50 35 36 42 49 43 36 35 38 43 38 Note: This question was asked on nights 1-5 of calling. Preferred 2016 Republican Nominee (With Mitt Romney) I am now going to read some names of potential candidates for the 2016 Republican nomination for President. Please tell me which candidate you prefer or are leaning toward at this time. Q11 Among N=333 Reps M F NE MW S W 18-24 25-29 30-34 Wht Hisp AA* Lib Mod Con Ranked by Mitt Romney 23 15 15 15 22 11 15 16 21 13 9 15 9 19 4 15 22 18 16 11 Chris Christie 5 11 10 11 19 4 13 7 11 8 13 12 3 18 18 9 7 6 9 16 Rand Paul 13 10 15 5 3 12 13 9 7 13 11 13 6 4 12 16 3 6 11 13 Paul Ryan 13 9 9 9 10 11 4 13 13 8 4 8 18 0 2 13 11 9 11 5 Jeb Bush 12 7 5 10 3 9 8 7 2 11 10 8 9 0 4 8 10 7 6 8 Mike Huckabee 13 7 9 6 5 15 7 3 9 4 8 13 0 0 4 4 14 9 6 8 Ted Cruz 5 3 2 3 0 2 4 2 1 3 5 2 6 0 2 1 5 1 2 4 Rick Santorum 0 1 0 2 0 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 Don t know 16 37 36 39 38 34 35 43 34 40 40 29 46 59 54 33 27 40 38 35 *Note: Due to small sample size, these results should be considered directional only. Note: This question was asked on the last two nights of calling. #3384 Fusion.Net Millennial Survey 7
Two-Way Republican Race If the 2016 Republican nomination for President resulted in a two-way race between Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, which candidate would you vote for? Q11A Difference +11 +15 +6 +26 +29-9 +14 +8 +2 +24 +18 +3-23 -10 +12 +32 +11 +5 +16 Mitt Romney 38 38 38 44 46 27 43 40 31 43 43 37 11 24 38 52 40 32 42 Jeb Bush 27 23 32 18 17 36 29 32 29 19 25 34 34 34 26 20 29 27 26 Don t know 35 39 31 38 37 37 28 29 40 39 32 29 54 42 36 28 31 41 32 Two-Way Presidential Race If the 2016 Presidential election resulted in a two-way race between Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Hilary Clinton, which candidate would you vote for? Q11B Difference +24 +22 +25 +50-8 +29 +26 +24 +24 +23 +4 +45 +85 +79 +23-28 +24 +22 +26 Hillary Clinton 55 53 56 68 39 57 57 56 52 56 44 67 85 83 53 29 56 51 58 Mitt Romney 31 31 31 18 47 28 31 32 28 33 40 22 0 4 30 57 32 29 32 Don t know 14 15 13 15 14 16 12 12 20 11 15 11 15 12 17 13 11 20 10 Generic 2016 Presidential Ballot If the 2016 Presidential election were held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or would you vote for the Democratic candidate? [IF UNDECIDED] Well, which one do you lean toward at this time? Q12 Difference +13 +4 +23 +27 +5 +6 +22 +15 +16 +8-4 +20 +77 +70 +18-39 +5 +12 +22 Total Democratic Candidate 48 43 54 55 45 44 53 50 49 46 39 52 84 79 47 25 45 46 54 Democratic candidate 43 37 49 51 37 40 47 45 41 42 34 48 77 70 41 23 40 41 48 Lean Democratic candidate 5 6 4 4 8 4 5 4 7 4 5 4 7 9 6 2 5 5 6 Total Republican Candidate 35 39 31 28 40 38 31 35 33 38 43 32 7 9 29 64 40 34 32 Lean Republican candidate 30 33 27 24 36 32 25 30 30 30 37 26 5 8 24 56 36 28 27 Republican candidate 5 6 4 4 4 6 6 5 3 8 6 6 3 2 5 9 4 6 6 Don t know 17 17 16 17 14 18 17 15 18 16 18 16 9 11 24 11 15 19 14 #3384 Fusion.Net Millennial Survey 8
Comedian Makes Best President Which of the following comedians do you think would make the best President? Q17 HS Ranked by Grad Some Coll Stephen Colbert 19 24 14 16 23 19 18 18 21 19 24 13 12 23 21 16 14 23 20 Jon Stewart 17 21 13 22 14 18 14 14 15 23 18 15 11 24 19 10 11 16 22 Tina Fey 17 6 28 13 21 15 19 18 17 14 16 19 17 17 17 16 19 13 19 Dave Chappelle 15 19 11 15 10 18 15 18 13 12 11 17 28 10 18 16 22 15 9 Amy Poehler 5 2 7 3 4 5 6 6 4 3 5 5 3 5 5 5 4 4 6 Louis C.K. 5 6 3 6 3 3 7 4 4 6 6 4 0 4 5 5 2 7 4 John Oliver 2 3 1 3 4 1 3 2 3 3 3 1 2 5 1 1 1 2 4 Jay Pharaoh 2 1 3 1 1 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 2 Don t know 18 17 20 21 20 18 16 16 21 19 16 22 25 11 13 27 24 18 14 Same Party As Parents Do you have the same political affiliation as either one of your parents? Q24 Difference +35 +30 +40 +36 +45 +32 +32 +42 +34 +25 +37 +24 +62 +31 +26 +51 +32 +37 +37 Yes 65 62 68 65 70 63 64 69 64 60 66 59 80 64 60 73 63 66 66 No 30 32 28 29 25 31 32 27 30 35 29 35 18 33 34 22 31 29 29 Don t know 5 6 4 6 5 6 4 5 6 5 6 6 2 3 6 5 5 6 5 #3384 Fusion.Net Millennial Survey 9