Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 191 Ryders Lane New Brunswick, New Jersey 08901-8557 www.eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu eagleton.poll@rutgers.edu 848-932-8940 Fax: 732-932-6778 THURSDAY OCTOBER 15, EDITOR S NOTE: ATTENTION POLITICAL, ASSIGNMENT EDITORS, Poll Asst. Director Ashley Koning may be contacted at 908-872-1186 (cell), 848-932-8940 (office), or akoning@rutgers.edu until 11:00pm. Poll Director David Redlawsk may be reached at 319-400-1134 (cell) or redlawsk@rutgers.edu. Questions and tables are available at http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-christie-trump-nj-2016-oct. Find all releases at http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu, and visit our blog at http://eagletonpollblog.wordpress.com for additional commentary. Follow the on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/rutgerseagletonpoll and Twitter @EagletonPoll. TRUMP STILL LEADS GOP FIELD IN NEW JERSEY, CHRISTIE FALLS WELL BEHIND; VOTERS TO CHRISTIE: END CAMPAIGN Voters cite governing, attitude, personality as reasons why Christie trails other candidates NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. Despite some recent gains on the 2016 campaign trail, Gov. Chris Christie has plummeted among his own party s 2016 preferences back home, according to the latest. Similar to national polls, 32 percent of New Jersey Republican and GOP-leaning registered voters choose businessman Donald Trump for their party s nomination. Trump tops the list for the second straight. Meanwhile Christie s New Jersey GOP support has been cut in half since August, when he was in second place at 12 percent. With just 5 percent of Republican voters naming him, Christie now trails Dr. Ben Carson and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, both at 13 percent, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 6 percent. While tied when results are rounded, he comes in sixth in mentions between former CEO Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, each also at 5 percent. Voters of all partisan stripes echo a general pessimism about Candidate Christie, believing it is time for him to throw in the towel. Sixty-seven percent think Christie should end his campaign for president, while 27 percent say he should continue to run. Only 9 percent say Christie s prospects have improved in the past few months; the rest are split between whether his chances have remained the same or worsened, showing little difference since April. Christie s decline is at least partly due to Trump, say some voters: 32 percent think he would be doing better without Trump in the race, although 59 percent say Christie would be doing about the same as he is now. But asked to name reasons why Christie ranks so far below other Republican candidates running for president, Trump s candidacy is far down on voters lists. Instead, they mention Christie s performance as governor (12 percent) or his overall attitude and character (11 percent) as the main reasons he is not gaining traction. Other Republican candidates have been led by Trump in their home states polls, but virtually all still come in second or third, said Ashley Koning, assistant director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University. Christie no longer has any home state advantage. The voters who know him best blame not his competition but what Christie himself is doing or not doing 1
for New Jersey. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Democratic field here, with almost half of all voters naming her as their top choice. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders follows far behind, at 19 percent, while Vice President Joe Biden, not yet a candidate, comes in third, at 10 percent. Results are from a statewide poll of 935 adults contacted by live callers on both landlines and cell phones from October 3 to 10,, including 781 registered voters reported on in this release. The registered voter sample has a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points. The GOP subsample of 273 voters has a margin of error of +/-6.6 percentage points, while the subsample of 367 Democrats is +/- 5.7 percentage points. Interviews were done in English and, when requested, Spanish. Christie falls; Trump, Clinton continue leads For Christie, now in the midst of some of his lowest ratings ever, the current numbers are a far cry from the days when he was New Jersey Republicans top choice for 2016, at 32 percent last December; no other candidate came close at the time. But in the first after he officially announced his candidacy this past summer, Christie fell to a distant second against Trump. Now, he is in a virtual three-way tie for fifth place when results are rounded. When asked for their second choice, Christie does only slightly better with Republican voters, at 9 percent, coming in third to Rubio and Carson both of whom have jumped eight points since August. Christie is an especially strong second choice among those who pick Ohio Gov. John Kasich (at 22 percent) or Trump (at 16 percent) as their first choice. Trump, on the other hand, has more than twice the support of any other candidate for Republican voters first choice and garners another 9 percent as Republicans second choice. Trump is viewed slightly less favorably than Christie overall 31 percent favorable to 55 percent unfavorable but he is less than 10 points shy of Christie when it comes to likeability among the GOP base: 59 percent of Republicans have a favorable impression of the business tycoon, while 26 percent do not and another 15 percent have no opinion. As in national polls, we are talking about small differences here between some of the candidates, but there is no question that Christie has suffered a significant blow, said Koning. In single digits for the first time on his own turf, he is now performing little better here than he is nationally. Even in the face of some negative press coverage and declining favorability, Clinton continues to head the list of Democratic voters first choices. She is also the second choice for over half of Democrats who choose Sanders or Biden as their first pick. But Clinton s favorability has taken a hit since August, part of a larger overall decline since February, putting her now at 45 percent favorable (down three points) to 46 percent unfavorable (up seven points). Bleak outlook for Candidate Christie across the board No one is optimistic about Christie for 2016, not even those who have typically supported him 2
most. Only those generally favorable toward Christie believe he should continue to run, albeit by a slim majority 52 percent to 41 percent who say he should end his presidential quest. Not even Republicans are solidly in his corner: 41 percent say he should keep running, but 54 percent say he should call it quits. Sixty-three percent of independents and 79 percent of Democrats also urge him to stop. Well over half of virtually every demographic group believes Christie should call it a day. Calls to end his presidential run in no doubt stem from the widespread belief that Christie s chances have not improved. Fifty percent of Democrats say things have worsened for the governor, while another 42 percent say they have remained the same. Independents are split between these two options, at 43 percent. Even 26 percent of Republicans think his chances have grown worse, while 56 percent say they are the same as before; those with a favorable impression of the governor show a similar pattern. And while both men are outspoken tough-talking Northeasterners known for their shoot from the hip attitudes, voters say the competition from Trump is not really damaging Christie s chances. Even Christie s supporters are somewhat mixed on Trump s effect. Among those favorable toward Christie, 51 percent say Christie would be doing better without the entrepreneur in the race, while 40 percent say he would do the same; Republicans are about evenly divided, 46 percent to 48 percent. Majorities of all other groups say Trump s presence has made little difference to Christie s chances. Christie s current job, character haunt his 2016 chances When asked why Christie has ranked below most of the other Republican candidates in presidential polls over the past few months, voters responses have little to do with the actual presidential race and more to do with reasons innate to Christie and his governorship. Voters were most likely to cite the job he is currently doing in New Jersey, mentioning lack of progress, poor leadership, and little time spent getting things done at home. I don t think he is working for New Jersey anymore, said one voter. Voters believe Christie s weak performance at home is connected to perceptions of his presidential potential. New Jersey is not a success story, and people know it, one voter reasoned. His achievements so far are not great examples for [the] presidency, said another. Voters see his persona as his second biggest determinant in the race to 2016. Christie s overall attitude and character have always defined him, at times his best and, other times, his worst features. [The] tough guy act doesn t work outside New Jersey, one respondent explained. Tying as the third highest reason for his lackluster presidential rankings, voters mention Christie being dishonest or untrustworthy and his policy stances, at 8 percent each. Another 7 percent cite Bridgegate and other administrative scandals. Views of Christie as a bully and outspoken each come in at 6 percent. Any reasons related directly to 2016 each come in at under 5 percent, including: Donald Trump, lack of 2016 media coverage, Christie s other competition, how he is running his campaign, his inability to distinguish himself from the other candidates, and his lack of qualifications. 3
# # # QUESTIONS AND TABLES START ON THE FOLLOWING PAGE 4
Questions and Tables The questions covered in the release of October 15, are listed below. Column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. Respondents are New Jersey Registered Voters; all percentages are of weighted results. Q. First, I'd like to ask you about some people. Please tell me if your general impression of each one is favorable or unfavorable, or if you do not have an opinion. If you do not know the name, just say so. [OTHER NAMES ALSO GIVEN AND TO BE RELEASED AT A LATER DATE; ORDER RANDOMIZED] BUSINESSMAN DONALD TRUMP FMR. SEC. OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE Favorable 35% 31% 45% Unfavorable 55% 55% 46% No opn/don t know person 10% 14% 9% Unwgt N= 779 780 780 BUSINESSMAN DONALD TRUMP Favorable 31% Unfavorable 55% No opn/don t know person 14% Unwgt N= 780 Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Non-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 10% 35% 59% 9% 31% 54% 39% 24% 36% 17% 20% 32% 34% 35% Unfavorable 84% 46% 26% 85% 53% 29% 47% 62% 49% 71% 72% 50% 50% 52% Don't know 6% 19% 15% 6% 16% 17% 14% 14% 14% 12% 8% 18% 15% 13% Unwt N= 268 319 181 181 395 181 363 417 549 205 117 154 268 241 Education Region Union Household HS or Less Some Work Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Public None Favorable 38% 27% 32% 24% 15% 28% 32% 34% 41% 20% 33% Unfavorable 46% 56% 56% 64% 69% 53% 53% 57% 48% 64% 54% Don't know 16% 17% 11% 12% 15% 18% 14% 9% 10% 15% 13% Unwt N= 170 191 230 187 97* 246 154 147 136 142 572 * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution FMR. SEC. OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON Favorable 45% Unfavorable 46% No opn/don t know person 9% Unwgt N= 780 5
Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Non-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 76% 37% 7% 73% 45% 14% 36% 52% 35% 68% 46% 47% 43% 43% Unfavorable 14% 51% 91% 19% 43% 81% 55% 38% 56% 22% 40% 43% 49% 49% Don't know 10% 12% 2% 8% 12% 5% 9% 10% 9% 9% 13% 9% 8% 8% Unwt N= 269 318 181 181 395 181 363 417 548 205 117 154 268 241 Education Region Union Household HS or Less Some Work Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Public None Favorable 42% 48% 40% 49% 67% 49% 37% 42% 31% 56% 41% Unfavorable 49% 43% 52% 38% 24% 41% 51% 49% 63% 35% 50% Don't know 10% 8% 7% 13% 9% 10% 12% 9% 5% 10% 9% Unwt N= 169 191 231 187 97* 246 153 148 136 142 572 * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution [QUESTIONS ON OTHER POLITICAL FIGURES LOCATED HERE] [REPUBLICANS AND GOP-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY] Q. The 2016 presidential election is far away, but thinking ahead to the Republican primary for president, who would be your first choice for the Republican candidate? Just tell me a name. Oct Aug Dec Aug Donald Trump 32% 21% - - Ben Carson 13% 5% 2% - Marco Rubio 13% 5% 4% 2% Ted Cruz 6% 4% 3% 3% Carly Fiorina 5% 0% - Chris Christie 5% 12% 32% 41% Jeb Bush 5% 10% 6% 5% John Kasich 2% 2% - Mike Huckabee 1% 1% - 1% George Pataki 1% - - - Rick Santorum <1% - - - Bobby Jindal <1% - 2% 1% Rand Paul <1% 2% 4% 1% Jim Gilmore - - - - Lindsey Graham - 0% - - Other 1% 2% 3% 2% Don t know 16% 19% 31% 30% Unwght N = 266 242 222 249 6
[REPUBLICANS AND GOP-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY] Q. And who would be your second choice for the 2016 Republican candidate? Just tell me a name if you have a second choice. Oct Dec Aug Marco Rubio 18% 5% 5% Ben Carson 17% 1% Chris Christie 9% 2% 3% Donald Trump 9% Carly Fiorina 9% Jeb Bush 8% 14% 3% John Kasich 5% 0% Ted Cruz 5% 2% 3% Rand Paul 1% 6% Rick Santorum 1% Lindsey Graham <1% Jim Gilmore - Mike Huckabee - 1% Bobby Jindal - 1% - George Pataki - No one 9% Other - 8% 4% Don't know 10% 42% 54% Unwght N = 214 154 247 [DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY] Q. The 2016 presidential election is far away, but thinking ahead to the Democratic primary for president, who would be your first choice for the Democratic candidate? Just tell me a name. Oct Dec Aug Hillary Clinton 49% 54% 59% Bernie Sanders 19% Joe Biden 10% 1% 4% Lincoln Chaffee - Martin O Malley - 1% James (Jim) Webb - Other 3% 3% 4% Don't know 20% 34% 30% Unwght N = 358 288 339 7
[DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS ONLY] Q. And who would be your second choice for the 2016 Democratic candidate? Just tell me a name if you have a second choice. Oct Dec Aug Hillary Clinton 21% 8% 7% Joe Biden 19% 5% 7% Bernie Sanders 18% Martin O Malley 1% 1% - James (Jim) Webb <1% Lincoln Chaffee - No one 25% Other 3% 9% 2% Don't know 12% 68% 74% Unwght N = 281 191 335 Q. Do you think Governor Christie s presidential chances have improved over the past few months, worsened, or have they remained about the same? Christie Favorability Oct Apr Fav Unfav Improved 9% 6% 18% 3% Worsened 42% 44% 22% 56% Been the same 46% 46% 57% 39% Don t know 4% 4% 4% 2% Unwgt N= 779 718 281 415 Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Non-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Improved 4% 10% 15% 3% 8% 16% 9% 9% 9% 8% 10% 5% 11% 9% Worsened 50% 43% 26% 51% 40% 37% 43% 40% 40% 46% 37% 45% 44% 39% Been the same 42% 43% 56% 44% 47% 43% 45% 47% 48% 41% 46% 47% 44% 48% Don t know 3% 4% 3% 1% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 7% 3% 1% 4% Unwgt N= 268 318 181 180 396 181 361 418 549 203 117 153 268 241 Education Region Union Household HS or Less Some Work Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Public None Improved 5% 11% 9% 10% 10% 8% 10% 4% 14% 4% 9% Worsened 35% 38% 44% 50% 46% 44% 38% 40% 40% 48% 41% Been the same 57% 45% 44% 38% 37% 44% 46% 56% 46% 45% 46% Don t know 3% 7% 2% 2% 7% 4% 7% 1% 1% 3% 3% Unwgt N= 169 191 231 186 97* 244 154 148 136 142 571 * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution 8
Q. In just a few words, why do you think Chris Christie has consistently ranked below most of the other Republican candidates in presidential polls over the past few months? Christie Favorability Party ID Fav Unfav Dem Ind Rep His job as governor 12% 6% 15% 14% 11% 13% Attitude and character 11% 8% 13% 14% 8% 10% Dishonest, untrustworthy 8% 1% 13% 13% 6% 3% Policy stances 8% 6% 10% 9% 8% 5% Bridgegate and other scandals 7% 11% 4% 4% 10% 7% Bully 6% 1% 9% 5% 7% 3% Outspoken, speaks his mind 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% Donald Trump 4% 6% 2% 4% 5% 4% Not covered enough in the media 4% 9% 0% 1% 5% 7% Reputation 4% 3% 5% 2% 5% 3% Not well known, lacking recognition 4% 8% 1% 4% 3% 5% 2016 competition 3% 6% 2% 3% 3% 5% Not running a good campaign 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% Not distinguishing himself from other candidates 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 4% Unqualified 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Arrogant 2% 1% 3% 3% 1% 1% Not conservative enough ideologically 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 4% Not presidential 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% Poor image of NJ, bad state reputation 1% 3% 0% 0% 2% 2% Other 6% 7% 5% 3% 7% 7% Don't know 5% 8% 2% 5% 5% 4% Unwgt N= 727 254 403 254 298 165 Q. Do you think Chris Christie would be doing better if Donald Trump were not in the race, doing worse, or would he be doing about the same as he is now? Christie Favorability Trump Favorability Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Better 32% 51% 21% 39% 30% Worse 5% 3% 6% 7% 4% About the same 59% 40% 70% 51% 62% Don't know 4% 6% 3% 3% 4% Unwgt N= 776 280 415 239 422 Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Non-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Better 25% 32% 46% 34% 28% 41% 38% 27% 35% 27% 43% 31% 30% 27% Worse 4% 6% 3% 6% 3% 6% 6% 4% 3% 7% 5% 3% 5% 6% About the same 64% 59% 48% 58% 64% 50% 52% 65% 59% 59% 48% 64% 61% 62% Don't know 6% 3% 3% 2% 5% 3% 4% 4% 3% 7% 5% 2% 4% 6% Unwgt N= 266 318 180 179 395 181 362 414 546 203 117 153 266 240 9
Education Region Union Household HS or Less Some Work Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Public None Better 25% 31% 37% 34% 20% 34% 39% 25% 40% 30% 32% Worse 7% 3% 5% 4% 7% 6% 2% 2% 8% 6% 5% About the same 61% 61% 54% 60% 68% 55% 57% 69% 49% 62% 58% Don't know 7% 4% 4% 2% 6% 5% 3% 4% 3% 2% 5% Unwgt N= 169 191 229 185 96* 245 153 147 135 140 570 * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution Q. Should Chris Christie continue running for president, or should he end his campaign? Christie Favorability Fav Unfav Continue running for president 27% 52% 11% End his campaign 67% 41% 84% Don't know 6% 7% 5% Unwgt N= 765 277 411 Party ID Ideology Gender Race Age Dem Ind Rep Lib Mod Con Male Female White Non-wht. 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Continue running 16% 30% 41% 17% 27% 38% 30% 25% 29% 22% 28% 27% 28% 25% End his campaign 79% 63% 54% 79% 67% 55% 65% 68% 63% 74% 66% 69% 67% 65% Don't know 6% 7% 5% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 4% 6% 4% 5% 10% Unwgt N= 267 311 178 180 388 177 356 409 538 202 116 153 262 234 HS or Less Education Some Work Region Union Household Urban Suburb Exurban Phil/South Shore Public None Continue running for president 35% 26% 27% 21% 25% 24% 34% 24% 30% 18% 29% End his campaign 60% 68% 68% 72% 68% 69% 61% 69% 65% 74% 65% Don't know 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 4% 7% 4% 8% 6% Unwgt N= 166 186 229 182 92* 244 150 146 133 140 561 * Small N, results should be interpreted with caution The was conducted by telephone using live callers October 3-10, with a scientifically selected random sample of 935 New Jersey adults, 18 or older. The sample contains a subsample of 781 registered voters. Respondents within a household are selected by asking randomly for the youngest adult male or female currently available. If the named gender is not available, the youngest adult of the other gender is interviewed. The poll was available in Spanish for respondents who requested it. This telephone poll included 573 landline and 362 cell phone adults, all acquired through random digit dialing using a sample obtained from Survey Sampling International. Distribution of household phone use in this sample is: 10
Cell Only: 14% Dual Use, Reached on Cell: 25% Dual Use, Reached on LL: 56% Landline Only: 5% Data were weighted to the demographics of registered voters in New Jersey. Weights account for the probability of being selected within the sample frame and the probability of being sampled within a household, based on the number of individuals living in the household and the phone composition (cell, landline) of the household. The samples were weighted using a raking algorithm to several demographic variables reflecting the registered voter parameters of the state of New Jersey: gender, race, age, and Hispanic ethnicity. The final weight, which combined all of the parameters mentioned, was trimmed at the 5 th and 95 th percentile so as to not accord too much weight to any one case or subset of cases. All results are reported with these weighted data. All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. Sampling error should be adjusted to recognize the effect of weighting the data to better match the population. In this poll, the simple sampling error for the 935 adults is +/-3.2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The adult sample weighting design effect is 1.29, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 3.6 percentage points for the adult sample. The simple sampling error for the 781 registered voters is +/-3.5 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence interval. The registered voter subsample weighting design effect is 1.24, making the adjusted margin of error +/- 3.9 percentage points for the registered voter subsample. Thus if 50 percent of New Jersey registered voters in this sample favor a particular position, we would be 95 percent sure that the true figure is between 46.1 and 53.9 percent (50 +/-3.9) if all New Jersey registered voters had been interviewed, rather than just a sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects. This was fielded in house by the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling. The questionnaire was developed and all data analyses were completed in house. The is paid for and sponsored by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University, a non-partisan academic center for the study of politics and the political process. Full questionnaires are available on request, and can also be accessed at the Eagleton Poll archive at www.eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu. For more information, please contact eagleton.poll@rutgers.edu. Weighted Sample Characteristics 781 New Jersey Registered Voters 36% Democrat 47% Male 22% 18-34 69% White 42% Independent 53% Female 21% 35-49 12% Black 22% Republican 33% 50-64 13% Hispanic 24% 65+ 6% Asian/Other/Multi 11