The University of Alaska 2014 Shaping Alaska s Future Initiative ------------- June 6, 2013 The Direction of American Higher Education Perspectives from and for Alaska David Longanecker President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)
How Alaska Compares Competitiveness Demographics Finances Productivity
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group U.S. & Leading OECD Countries, 2010 70 60 65.0 56.7 56.5 56.8 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 50 40 30 20 46.9 26.7 12.8 49.6 45.8 29.0 46.8 42.2 48.2 42.3 29.8 21.5 47.3 41.0 33.4 27.3 46.4 42.5 39.1 33.8 46.0 40.6 35.2 30.0 44.4 39.5 34.8 29.6 44.2 41.4 27.9 25.3 44.2 48.8 44.4 44.6 43.8 39.4 30.9 25.6 42.9 33.8 21.7 18.3 42.3 43.4 40.0 41.0 10 0 3 Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2012, U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey One-Year Public Use Microdata Sample File
70 Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger & Older Adults - U.S., 2009 60 Age 25-34 Age 45-54 50 40 30 20 Nevada New Mexico Arkansas West Virginia Mississippi Wyoming Louisiana Idaho Oklahoma Texas Alabama Arizona Alaska Tennessee Kentucky Indiana Florida South Carolina Georgia Maine Michigan South Dakota Delaware Ohio Utah Oregon California North Carolina United States Missouri Montana Wisconsin Washington Colorado Hawaii Kansas Rhode Island Pennsylvania Virginia Nebraska Vermont Connecticut Iowa Illinois New Hampshire New Jersey Maryland New York Minnesota North Dakota Massachusetts DC slide 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 American Community Survey (ACS)
Comparing WICHE States with Nations and Other States in the Percentage of Young Adult Degree Attainment (Ages 25-34) U.S. States % OECD Country Korea (65.0) 60 58 Massachusetts 54 North Dakota 52 Minnesota New York 50 56 Japan, Canada New Jersey 48 Ireland New Hampshire Norway Connecticut Iowa 46 New Zealand, United Kingdom Virginia Illinois Maryland South Dakota Pennsylvania Nebraska Colorado Vermont 44 Australia, Luxembourg, Israel, Belgium Rhode Island Kansas France Montana Wisconsin 42 UNITED STATES, Sweden Washington Netherlands, Switzerland Missouri Hawaii 40 Wyoming Maine Delaware Utah Finland, Spain, Chile Ohio California Oregon 38 Estonia, Denmark Michigan North Carolina Poland Indiana Florida South Carolina 36 Iceland Georgia Alaska Kentucky Tennessee 34 Arizona Mississippi Texas Alabama Idaho 32 Louisiana Slovenia, Greece Oklahoma Arkansas West Virginia 30 Nevada 28 New Mexico 26 Germany, Hungary Portugal 24 Slovak Rep Czech Rep 22 Mexico Austria, Italy 20 Turkey (17.4) Source: 2012 OECD Education at a Glance; 2010 American Community Survey
The Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and the State New Economy Index (2010) 55 Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2009) 48 41 34 27 High College Attainment, Low Personal Income VT ND HI NE OR IA KS UT MT ME SD DE NC WI US PA GA FL SC AZ MI OH ID NM MO IN TX AL TN OK KY NV MS LA AR WV High College Attainment, High Personal Income CO MN NH VA RI WA IL CA AK WY NY MD NJ MA CT State New Economy Index 2010 Top Tier Middle Tier Bottom Tier Low College Attainment, Low Personal Income Low College Attainment, High Personal Income 20 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 Personal Income per Capita (2010) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Kauffman Foundation
How Alaska Compares Competitiveness Demographics Finances Productivity
Alaska Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity 2008-09 (Projected) and 2009-10 to 2027-28 (Projected) 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black, non-hispanic Hispanic White, non-hispanic
Composition of Public Higher School Graduates By Race/Ethnicity 2008-09 (Actual) and 2009-10 to 2027-28 (Projected)
Composition of Public Higher School Graduates By Race/Ethnicity 2008-09 (Actual) and 2009-10 to 2027-28 (Projected)
Difference in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities (Blacks, Hispanics, & Native Americans) 2008-10 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 35.1 34.5 33.7 32.1 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.4 27.6 26.8 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 24.0 23.2 23.1 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.2 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.1 20.9 20.0 19.5 19.3 16.9 16.8 16.3 15.7 15.5 15.2 15.0 14.9 14.8 13.5 13.4 13.0 12.0 8.8 8.5 8.3 5 0 Colorado Nebraska California Connecticut Minnesota Rhode Island New Jersey Illinois New York South Dakota Massachusetts Iowa Utah Idaho Wisconsin Kansas Washington Arizona Texas Oregon New Mexico Nation Pennsylvania Delaware Virginia North Carolina Maryland Hawaii Alaska Nevada North Dakota South Carolina Michigan Montana Wyoming Louisiana Mississippi Georgia Indiana Ohio New Hampshire Oklahoma Alabama Missouri Arkansas Tennessee Florida Kentucky Maine West Virginia Vermont Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey
How Alaska Compares Competitiveness Demographics Finances Productivity
Alaska Finances In Comparison Above Average Wealth Per capita income (2011 Source: NCHEMS): Alaska: $45,529 (9% above U.S. average; rank 10 th ) U.S. Average: $41,663
Alaska Support of Higher Education (2011) Higher Education Appropriation per Capita Alaska: $489 (189% of U.S.; rank 3 rd ) U.S. Average: $259 Higher Education Appropriation/FTE Alaska: $12,932 (212% of U.S.; rank 2 nd ) U.S. Average:$6,105
Alaska Support of Higher Education (2011) Higher Education Appropriation per Capita Alaska: $489 (189% of U.S.; rank 3 rd ) U.S. Average: $259 Higher Education Appropriation/FTE Alaska: $12,932 (212% of U.S.; rank 2 nd ) U.S. Average:$6,105 Total Educational Revenues (Appropriations & Net Tuition Revenue)/FTE Alaska: $17,859 (155% of U.S.; rank 3 rd ) U.S. Average:$11,523
Alaska Support of Higher Education (2011) Higher Education Appropriation per Capita Alaska: $489 (189% of U.S.; rank 3 rd ) U.S. Average: $259 Higher Education Appropriation/FTE Alaska: $12,932 (212% of U.S.; rank 2 nd ) U.S. Average:$6,105 Total Educational Revenues (Appropriations & Net Tuition Revenue)/FTE Alaska: $17,859 (155% of U.S.; rank 3 rd ) U.S. Average:$11,523 Public Higher Education Tuition Revenue Per FTE Alaska: $4,927 (90% of U.S.; rank -- 34 th ) U.S. Average: $5,475
How Alaska Compares Competitiveness Demographics Finances Productivity
National Student Clearinghouse Information on Student Completion in Six Years Completion Not Enrolled or Completed AK US AK US 4-year Programs 36% 61% 44% 23% 2-year Programs 21% 36% 65% 44%
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures Public Two-Year Institutions
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures Public Bachelor s & Master s Colleges & Universities
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures Public Research Universities
Credential & Degrees Awarded Per $100,000 of Education & Related Expenditures Total: Public Colleges & Universities
Alaskan Anomalies Low skill, high wage economy But not universally high wage Demographic growth will be among least well educated populations Funding is robust; suggesting not much room for more Current completion rates are not competitive In sum: you face challenges ahead So, how does this fit the current higher education scene?
Four Generic Themes The Completion Agenda (A Play in Two Acts) The Productivity Agenda (Another Two Act Play) Fascination with Innovation The New Normal for Funding
The Completion Agenda Access to Success The President s Challenge First in the World Again -- to Meet Workforce Needs
The Completion Agenda Access to Success The President s Challenge First in the World Again -- to Meet Workforce Needs 65% of Young Adults some postsecondary credential of value 2020 Lumina -- 60% by 2025 Complete College America -- 32 States Angst Do we really need to get there? Georgetown Center 67% of Colorado Workforce will need pse Can we get there from here? Will quality suffer?
The Completion Agenda Access to Success Implications for Alaska University of Alaska has a public agenda Shaping Alaska s Future But does Alaska? Shaping Alaska s Future captures well the need, but Is there a sufficient change agenda to move from today to what s needed tomorrow? Two quotes that may have relevance here: Dilbert: Change is great, you go first. Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The lift is huge, So, the response must be as well
The Completion Agenda Act II: Expanding the Concept of student Looking down Early learning high schools (the Gates redesign) College/Postsecondary in all high schools (AP, dual & concurrent enrolment, IB, CTE) Improving Preparation Common Core Reinventing Remedial The High School as partner Looking up Adult College Completion low hanging fruit New Adult Focus A mighty heavy lift The new GED (s) Redefining college The course level movement Demonstrated competence (more to come) Implications for Alaska In this game; but only partly either looking down or up
The Productivity Agenda -- Act I Student Learning the new name of the game A good idea whose time has come Acceptance within Academe has evolved Evidence based practice has caught on in public policy Analytics can support evidence based practice (CLA, CAAP, ETS Proficiency Profile, AHELO, Work-keys, etc.) Being Supported financially Lumina s DQP & Tuning work Angst Whopping big change moving to external validity Still sorting out right respective roles -- Teacher s role, Institution s role, Governing board s role, Government s role Some solutions are impractical the perfect as the enemy of the good: Implications for Alaska Not much yet in external validity of measured outcomes How are you measuring outcomes? And, how comfortable are you with this thrust?
The Productivity Agenda Act II Competence the new coin of the realm Competency Assessment for Student Sake Demonstrated college level learning outside the Academy Standard measures CLEP, testing out, etc. Prior Leaning Assessment PLA Competency Assessment for Institution s Sake (Educational Improvement & Credibility) Predictive Analytics Degree Qualifications Profiles, Tuning Implications for Alaska Kudos on accepting PLA and/or equivalency in transfer? Where are you on accepting credits from nontraditional for their traditional students (ie., MOOCS) I haven t seen you involved in these efforts nationally
Innovation & Disruption are good (everything else is boring) The list (partially) New providers of degrees The expansion of the for-profit sector & WGU The expansion of on-line New providers of courses & services MOOCS Courses only Straighter Line, DreamDegree, etc. Support services only Insidetrack, Kahn Academy, Smartthinking, etc.
Innovation & Disruption are good (everything else is boring) Implications for Alaska Is the University of Alaska supportive of others innovation? Is the University of Alaska active in its own innovation agenda? Are you demanding evidence of effectiveness?
The New Normal for Funding Why a new normal & not return to the old normal (public and non-public finance) Can t afford the old normal Hyper-inflationary model is unsustainable (unaffordable) Shouldn t afford the old normal What the new normal will look like In public sector -- Performance funding is the wave to be on Blends finance and productivity agendas 42 states involved (or saying they Seeping into institutional finance RCM
The New Normal for Funding What the new normal is beginning to look line Performance funding isn t the only new dog in the hunt Expenditure strategies The cheap way out -- $10,000 degree Outsourcing WGU expansion Coursework outsourced Enrolment Management (more or less) Revenue enhancement strategies Chase rich students Chase any students Rethink tuition discounting & financial aid
The New Normal for Funding Implications for Alaska You are the most expensive house on the block HGTV You don t want to be the most expensive house on the block You can t expect more money But you can expect more students That forces a merger of the productivity agenda and the new normal for funding
Managing Change Choosing Chaos or Intentionality The Change Agenda Massive Rapid Often fact free Impact The way we provide education Who we educate The way we assess quality & effectiveness The way we finance the enterprise Alaska and the UofA Traditional in how you provide education Traditional in who you educate Traditional in the way you assess quality Traditional in financing the enterprise Is there a disconnect here?
Managing Change Choosing Chaos or Intentionality Implications for Alaska and the UofA Be Aware Be nimble Be ready to change, even where you are already good Break the Mold Intentionality requires evidence Thanks