Higher Education Pays: But for Whom? Mark Schneider President, College Measures Vice President and Institute Fellow, AIR
Can You Self-Actualize While Living in Your Mother s Basement?
Purpose v. Value? Is it about money or broader outcomes? How to measure value (even if we restrict ourselves to labor market outcomes): Institution vs. Program Level Time frame: Wage data: first year? 5 years? 10? Other data? Rolling averages? Comparisons Criterion based Norm based Individually driven Who should assess value? Government? Others (not for profits vs. for profit companies)?
Sub-Baccalaureate Credentials 5
Numbers of Credentials Awarded in US, 2008 and 2013 Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Certificates of less-than 1-year Certificates of 1 but less than 2-years Certificates of 2 but less than 4-years 2008 726,800 1,542,563 239,022 161,618 10,386 2013 1,006,961 1,836,812 339,569 298,726 11,708 Percent growth 39% 19% 42% 85% 13%
Certificates
8
completers who keep things working are high paid 9
completers who keep people working are also high paid 10
Certificates Can Pay Off: Highest and Lowest Paying Certificates in Texas Program Name Time To Degree Loan Wages Year 1 Wages Year 5 Wages Year 10 Communication Disorders Sciences and Services 3.6 $13,444 $22,072 $20,970 $22,887 Human Development, Family Studies, and Related Services 3.9 $13,132 $17,718 $20,236 $23,473 Teaching Assistants/Aides 3 $16,970 $16,391 $18,903 $24,757 Cosmetology and Related Personal Grooming Services 2.2 $7,743 $13,850 $21,950 $25,479 Business Operations Support and Assistant Services 2.9 $8,201 $16,877 $23,486 $28,273 Electromechanical and Instrumentation and Maintenance Technologies/Technicians 3.5 $5,070 $38,927 $58,537 $67,266 Plumbing and Related Water Supply Services 2.9 $26,894 $41,846 $64,533 $71,497 Quality Control and Safety Technologies/Technicians 3.3 $10,500 $44,949 $65,847 $73,265 Industrial Production Technologies/Technicians 2.2 $9,405 $37,739 $60,211 $80,281 Physical Science Technologies/Technicians 3.9 $5,843 $33,777 $61,873 $81,886 Mechanical Engineering Related Technologies/Technicians 2.1 $6,873 $19,519 $46,910 $116,141 Medians (58 certificate programs) 3.1 $8,304 $25,963 $36,746 $46,555 Start low, end low. Have technician or technology in training program
Associate s Degrees
Two year technical degrees are valuable: Texas
Texas
Grads with academic two year degrees earn far less than grads with technical two-year degrees Remember: median for technical degrees>$50,000
Variation across community colleges of grads with same majors: Texas
Bachelor s Degrees What you study is more important than where you study
Quarterly Wages, by Florida University Florida Atlantic University $10,008 Florida International University $9,758 University of North Florida $9,110 STATE AVERAGE $9,103 University of Central Florida $9,066 University of South Florida $9,046 Florida Gulf Coast University $8,917 University of Florida $8,904 Florida State University $8,457 University of West Florida $8,252 Florida A&M University $7,967 New College of Florida $5,934 $0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000
Programs with Bachelor s Graduates Having Lowest and Highest First-Year Earnings, by States State Lowest First-Year Earnings Highest First-Year Earnings Arkansas Music Performance $19,808 Engineering $56,655 Colorado Dieticians $24,876 Chemical Engineering $90,099 Florida Drama $19,548 Fire Science $69,756 Tennessee Photography $28,743 Systems Engineering $54,346 Texas Health Services $15,053 Virginia Philosophy $20,442 Petroleum Engineering Petroleum Engineering Common Theme in lowest first year earnings: Liberal Arts Common theme in highest first-year earnings: Engineering $117,177 $61,517
Long Term vs. Short Term Do Philosophy majors working as Baristas in Starbucks today become Barristers 10 years from now?
Average Wages after Year 1 and after Year 10: Graduates from Popular Bachelor s Degree Programs in Texas Area of Study Time To Degree Wages Year 1 Wages Year 10 Years 1-10 growth Biology, General 5.30 $23,243 $81,484 251% Psychology, General 5.24 $23,729 $54,128 128% Criminal Justice and Corrections 5.56 $28,184 $55,025 95% Health and Physical Education/Fitness 5.64 $28,818 $58,109 102% Marketing 5.05 $30,776 $78,133 154% State wide university bachelors average Business Administration, Management and Operations 5.36 $31,016 $69,055 123% 5.48 $31,816 $70,911 123% Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other 5.63 $32,133 $49,315 53% Accounting and Related Services 5.70 $34,331 $76,236 122% Finance and Financial Management Services Management Information Systems and Services 5.17 $34,392 $95,920 179% 5.57 $34,813 $80,176 130% For most majors: start low, end low; start high, end high
Debt Servicing as Example of Why Labor Market Outcomes Matter Criterion based: Rule of Thumb: Debt should not exceed first year earnings At that level about 11% of gross first year earnings will go to service debt at current 3.9% rate and more as rates go up next year.
Student Loans vs. Wages: Institution Level Percent year 1 wages Percent year 10 wages Institution name loan Year 1 Wages Year 10 Wages Monthly payment Prairie View A&M University $36,218 $35,890 $62,835 $365 12% 7% The University of Texas at Austin $37,522 $38,713 $98,976 $378 12% 5% Texas Tech University $30,146 $31,937 $75,477 $304 11% 5% Texas A&M University- Corpus Christi $30,240 $32,489 $61,279 $305 11% 6% Texas A&M University $32,234 $35,230 $93,682 $325 11% 4% Texas A&M University- Kingsville $29,101 $31,904 $62,185 $293 11% 6% Statewide Summary for Universities $28,103 $35,456 $74,142 $283 10% 5% The University of Texas of the Permian Basin $18,533 $30,042 $58,599 $187 7% 4% The University of Texas at Arlington $23,032 $37,563 $72,491 $232 7% 4% The University of Texas at El Paso $20,432 $33,794 $62,674 $206 7% 4% The University of Texas at Brownsville $18,265 $32,908 $54,536 $184 7% 4% The University of Texas- Pan American $17,882 $35,275 $59,598 $180 6% 4% Sul Ross State University Rio Grande College $13,012 $30,413 $45,901 $131 5% 3% Texas A&M University- Texarkana $13,241 $35,578 $67,714 $133 5% 2%
Institution is the wrong level of analysis: Program level differences
Program Level: Anthropology Institution name loan Year 1 Wages Year 10 Wages Monthly payment Percent of first year wages Percent of Year 10 Wages Texas Tech University $36,036 $12,438 $52,863 $363 35% 8% The University of Texas at San Antonio $39,052 $13,804 $43,870 $394 34% 11% The University of Texas at El Paso $30,025 $11,373 $31,592 $303 32% 11% Texas A&M University $41,312 $16,939 $38,315 $416 29% 13% University of Houston- Clear Lake $52,332 $25,461 $50,675 $527 25% 12% The University of Texas at Austin $38,561 $21,554 $51,201 $389 22% 9% University of North Texas $35,646 $21,043 $47,408 $359 20% 9% Statewide for Universities $33,136 $21,166 $46,328 $334 19% 9% Texas State University $28,483 $23,196 $44,312 $287 15% 8% The University of Texas at Arlington $22,660 $28,999 $38,689 $228 9% 7% University of Houston $20,595 $26,397 $52,953 $208 9% 5% The University of Texas-Pan American $10,542 $18,014 $34,298 $106 7% 4%
Anthropology vs. Economics Monthly payment Percent of first year wages Percent of Year 10 Wages Institution name Area of Study loan Year 1 Wages Year 10 Wages Statewide Summary for Universities Anthropology $33,136 $21,166 $46,328 $334 19% 9% The University of Texas at Austin Economics $38,914 $33,437 $110,406 $392 14% 4% Texas Tech University Economics $30,725 $26,461 $96,431 $310 14% 4% The University of Texas at Dallas Economics $35,553 $34,489 $72,557 $358 12% 6% The University of Texas at Arlington Economics $30,431 $30,762 $68,591 $307 12% 5% Statewide Summary for Universities Economics $27,035 $31,016 $69,055 $272 11% 5% University of North Texas Economics $26,367 $30,411 $72,285 $266 10% 4% Texas A&M University Economics $22,523 $30,525 $112,496 $227 9% 2% Texas A&M University- Commerce Economics $22,786 $31,547 $93,437 $230 9% 3% University of Houston Economics $25,394 $39,033 $84,796 $256 8% 4% The University of Texas-Pan American Economics $11,303 $51,348 $46,507 $114 3% 3%
Individual Ratings
Individual Weighting?
What is the Role of Intermediaries?
Government Role in Assessing the Value of Higher Education Federal Government vs. State Accountability vs. Consumer Choice