Demography Briefing: Global

Demography Briefing: Global December 1, 15 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents GLOBAL: Total Fertility Rate, Median Age 1 GLOBAL: Life Expectancy at Birth 2 Urbanization: Global, Developed World 3 Urbanization: Developing World, LDCs 4 Total Fertility Rate: Europe, E.Europe 5 Total Fertility Rate: N.Europe, S.Europe 6 Total Fertility Rate: W.Europe 7 Population Profile: Europe, France 8 Population Profile: Germany, Italy 9 Population Profile: Russia, Spain 1 Population Profile: Sweden, Switzerland 11 Population Profile: UK 12 Median Age: Europe 13 Population of Age Group 15-24: Europe, France 14 Population of Age Group 15-24: Germany, Italy 15 Population of Age Group 15-24: Russia, Spain 16 Population of Age Group 15-24: UK 17 Population of Age Group 15-64: Europe, France 18 Population of Age Group 15-64: Germany, Italy 19 Population of Age Group 15-64: Russia, Spain Population of Age Group 15-64: UK 21 Population of Age Group > 64: Europe, France 22 Population of Age Group > 64: Germany, Italy 23 Population of Age Group > 64: Russia, Spain 24 Population of Age Group > 64: UK 25 Population of Age Group < 15: Europe 26 EU 15 vs. USA 27 Urbanization: N.Europe, S.Europe 28 Urbanization: E.Europe, W.Europe 29 Population Profile, Fertility Rate Age Group 15-24: Population, Population Growth 31 Population : Age Group 15-24, 15-64 32 Median Age Across: Time, Countries 33 Dependency Ratio, Employment to Population Ratio(Age 15-24)34 China: Population 35-38 Japan: Population 39- Urbanization: India, Brazil 41 Urbanization: Russia 42 December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

3.5 3. Figure 1. GLOBAL: Total Fertility Rate, Median Age COMPARISON OF TOTAL FERTILITY RATES ACROSS 45 COUNTRIES: 1 (births per woman) Replacement Rate* 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Philippines Israel 55 45 35 25 15 1 5 Egypt Malaysia India Peru South Africa Mexico Morocco Argentina New Zealand Indonesia Colombia USA Turkey Ireland France Sweden Norway UK Australia Denmark Finland Chile Belgium Brazil Vietnam Netherlands Canada China Thailand Russia Switzerland Czech Republic Austria Greece Italy Germany Japan Spain Poland Portugal Hungary * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. In developed countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate and for emerging countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. Figure 2. COMPARISON OF MEDIAN AGE ACROSS 45 COUNTRIES: 1 (years) Japan Germany Page 1 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global Italy Finland Austria Switzerland Greece Belgium Portugal Netherlands Sweden Denmark Spain France Canada Hungary United Kingdom Czech Republlic Norway Poland Russia Korea Singapore Australia USA New Zealand Ireland China Thailand Chile Argentina Israel Brazil Turkey Vietnam Indonesia Colombia Mexico Morocco Malaysia Peru India South Africa Egypt Korea Philippines 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 55 45 35 25 15 1 www. 5

GLOBAL: Life Expectancy at Birth 1 9 Figure 3. COMPARISON OF LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH ACROSS 45 COUNTRIES: 1 (years) 1 9 8 7 6 1 Japan Switzerland Italy Australia Singapore Source: World Bank. Spain Israel Sweden France Norway Canada Korea Netherlands New Zealand UK Greece Austria Ireland Germany Belgium Finland Denmark Portugal Chile USA Czech Republic Mexico Poland Argentina Vietnam Hungary Malaysia Thailand Peru Turkey Colombia China Brazil Egypt Morocco Indonesia Russia Philippines India South Africa 8 7 6 1 Page 2 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Urbanization: Global, Developed World 7 6 Figure 4. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: WORLD (percent of total population) 7 6 9 8 19 Figure 5. 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: DEVELOPED WORLD* (percent of total population) 55 9 8 7 6 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 * As defined by United Nations, includes North Ameria, Europe, Japan and Australia/New Zealand. Page 3 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 55 7 6 www.

8 7 6 Figure 6. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: DEVELOPING WORLD* (percent of total population) Urbanization: Developing World, LDCs 8 7 6 1 7 6 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 * As defined by United Nations, includes countries not categorized as Developed World and Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Figure 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: LDC* (percent of total population) 55 1 7 6 1 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 * Least Developed Countries, as definied by United Nations and include 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 6 in Oceania and 1 in Latin America/Carribean. Page 4 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 55 1 www.

2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 1.7 Figure 8. Total Fertility Rate: Europe, E.Europe FERTILITY RATE: EURO AREA (births per woman) EU Fertility Rate Replacement Level* 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2. 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 9 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. 3. 2.5 Figure 9. FERTILITY RATES: EASTERN EUROPE (births per woman) Czech Republic Hungary Poland Replacement Rate* Russia 3. 2.5 2. 2. 1.5 9 1.5 1. 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 1. * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. Page 5 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

4 Figure 1. Total Fertility Rate: N.Europe, S.Europe FERTILITY RATES: NORTHERN EUROPE (births per woman) Denmark Finland Ireland Norway Sweden UK Replacement Rate* 4 3 3 2 9 2 1 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. 3 Figure 11. FERTILITY RATES: SOUTHERN EUROPE (births per woman) Greece Italy Portugal Replacement Rate* Spain 3 2 2 9 1 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. Page 6 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

3.5 3. Figure 12. Total Fertility Rate: W.Europe FERTILITY RATES: WESTERN EUROPE (births per woman) Austria Belgium France Germany Netherlands Switzerland Replacement Rate* 3.5 3. 2.5 2.5 2. 2. 1.5 9 1.5 1. 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 1. * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reaches 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for developing countries, it ranges from 2.5 to 3.3. Source: World Bank. Page 7 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Figure 13. Population Profile: Europe, France POPULATION PROFILE: EU (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Source: World Bank. 1 9 8 7 6 1 Figure 14. POPULATION PROFILE: FRANCE (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Source: World Bank. 1 9 8 7 6 1 Page 8 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Figure 15. Population Profile: Germany, Italy POPULATION PROFILE: GERMANY (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Source: World Bank. 1 9 8 7 6 1 Figure 16. POPULATION PROFILE: ITALY (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Source: World Bank. 1 9 8 7 6 1 Page 9 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Figure 17. Population Profile: Russia, Spain POPULATION PROFILE: RUSSIA (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Source: World Bank. 1 9 8 7 6 1 Figure 18. POPULATION PROFILE: SPAIN (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Source: World Bank. 1 9 8 7 6 1 Page 1 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Figure 19. Population Profile: Sweden, Switzerland POPULATION PROFILE: SWEDEN (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Source: World Bank. 1 9 8 7 6 1 Figure. POPULATION PROFILE: SWITZERLAND (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Source: World Bank. 1 9 8 7 6 1 Page 11 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Figure 21. Population Profile: UK POPULATION PROFILE: UK (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 Source: World Bank. 1 9 8 7 6 1 Page 12 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Median Age: Europe 45 Figure 22. MEDIAN AGE OF THE POPULATION OF EUROPE (years) Europe Northern Europe Western Europe Eastern Europe Southern Europe 45 35 35 25 25 15 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 45 Figure 23. COMPARISON OF MEDIAN AGE ACROSS EUROPEAN COUNTRIES: 1 (years) 45 35 35 25 25 15 15 1 1 5 5 Germany Italy Finland Austria Switzerland Greece Belgium Portugal Netherlands Sweden Denmark Spain France Hungary United Kingdom Czech Republic Norway Poland Russia Ireland Page 13 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

1 11 Population of Age Group 15-24: Europe, France Figure 24. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF 15-24 AGE GROUP: EUROPE 1 11 1 9 8 7 9 19 Figure 25. 196 197 198 199 5 POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-24 AGE GROUP: FRANCE 1 15 25 35 45 55 1 9 8 7 9 8 7 6 5 19 Page 14 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 www. 8 7 6 5

14 13 Population of Age Group 15-24: Germany, Italy Figure 26. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-24 AGE GROUP: GERMANY 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 19 Figure 27. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-24 AGE GROUP: ITALY 19 Page 15 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 55 12 11 1 9 8 7 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. www.

28 Figure 28. Population of Age Group 15-24: Russia, Spain POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-24 AGE GROUP: RUSSIA 28 24 16 12 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. 19 Figure 29. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-24 AGE GROUP: SPAIN 19 Page 16 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 55 24 16 12 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5. 4.5 4. www.

1 Figure. Population of Age Group 15-24: UK POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-24 AGE GROUP: UK 1 9 8 7 6 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 9 8 7 6 Page 17 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

525 Population of Age Group 15-64: Europe, France Figure 31. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-64 AGE GROUP: EUROPE 525 475 475 4 425 4 425 375 3 45 19 Figure 32. 196 197 198 199 POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-64 AGE GROUP: FRANCE 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 375 3 45 35 25 19 Page 18 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 35 25 www.

6 Population of Age Group 15-64: Germany, Italy Figure 33. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-64 AGE GROUP: GERMANY 6 55 55 45 42 19 Figure 34. 196 197 198 199 POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-64 AGE GROUP: ITALY 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 45 42 36 24 19 Page 19 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 36 24 www.

18 99 Figure 35. Population of Age Group 15-64: Russia, Spain POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-64 AGE GROUP: RUSSIA 18 99 9 81 9 81 72 72 63 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 63 35 Figure 36. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-64 AGE GROUP: SPAIN 35 25 15 19 Page / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 25 15 www.

Population of Age Group 15-64: UK 45 35 Figure 37. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 15-64 AGE GROUP: UK 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 45 35 Page 21 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

21 18 Figure 38. Population of Age Group > 64: Europe, France POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: EUROPE 21 18 1 1 1 1 9 6 19 Figure 39. 196 197 198 199 POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: FRANCE 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 9 6 15 1 5 19 Page 22 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 15 1 www. 5

28 24 Figure. Population of Age Group > 64: Germany, Italy POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: GERMANY 28 24 16 12 8 4 24 18 12 6 19 Figure 41. 19 196 197 198 199 POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: ITALY Page 23 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 16 12 8 4 24 18 12 www. 6

35 Figure 42. Population of Age Group > 64: Russia, Spain POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: RUSSIA 35 25 25 15 1 5 16 12 8 4 19 Figure 43. 19 196 197 198 199 POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: SPAIN Page 24 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 15 1 5 16 12 www. 8 4

Population of Age Group > 64: UK 18 15 12 9 6 3 Figure 44. POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF 64 AND ABOVE AGE GROUP: UK 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 18 15 12 9 6 3 Page 25 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

18 Figure 45. Population of Age Group < 15: Europe POPULATION PROJECTIONS OF -14 AGE GROUP: EUROPE 18 16 1 1 1 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 16 1 1 1 Page 26 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

EU 15 vs. USA 85 8 Figure 46. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE*, AGE GROUP 15-64: USA VIS-A-VIS EU** (percentage of age group population) USA EU 85 8 75 1 75 7 7 65 65 6 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 6 * Percentage of the adult population (Age group 15-64) who are in the labor forces ** Based on EU 15, comprising of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxemborg, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom Source: OECD. 8 75 Figure 47. EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO*, AGE GROUP 15-64: USA VIS-A-VIS EU** (percentage of age group population) USA EU 8 75 7 7 1 65 65 6 6 55 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 55 * Percentage of the adult population (Age group 15-64) who are employed ** Based on EU 15, comprising of Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxemborg, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom Source: OECD. Page 27 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

1 9 8 Figure 48. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: NORTHERN EUROPE* (percent of total population) Urbanization: N.Europe, S.Europe 1 9 8 7 7 6 6 1 1 9 8 7 6 1 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 * Northern Europe includes Channel Islands, Denmark, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Isle of Man, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Sweden and United Kingdom. Figure 49. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: SOUTHERN EUROPE* (percent of total population) 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 * Southern Europe includes Albania, Andorra, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Gibraltar, Greece, Holy See, Italy, Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, San Marino, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain and Macedonia. Page 28 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 55 55 1 1 9 8 7 6 1 www.

9 8 7 Figure. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: EASTERN EUROPE* (percent of total population) Urbanization: E.Europe, W.Europe 9 8 7 6 6 1 1 9 8 7 6 1 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 * Eastern Europe includes Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia and Ukraine. Figure 51. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: WESTERN EUROPE* (percent of total population) 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 * Western Europe includes Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands and Switzerland. Page 29 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 55 55 1 1 9 8 7 6 1 www.

Figure 52. Population Profile, Fertility Rate POPULATION PROFILE: CHINA (percentage of total population) > Age 64 Age 15-64 < Age 15 1 9 8 7 6 1 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 1 9 8 7 6 1 Source: World Bank. 7. 6.5 6. Figure 53. FERTILITY RATE: CHINA (births per woman) China Fertility Rate Replacement Rate* 7. 6.5 6. 5.5 5.5 5. 5. 4.5 4.5 4. 4. 3.5 3.5 3. 3. 2.5 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 9 2. 1.5 1..5. * The level of fertility at which a cohort of women on the average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. By definition, "replacement" is considered only to have occurred when the off-spring reach 15 yrs. In industrialized countries, a fertility rate of 2.1 is considered to be replacement rate (more than 2. to allow for childhood mortality) and for emerging countries, a rate of 2.33. Source: World Bank. Page / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Age Group 15-24: Population, Population Growth Figure 54. POPULATION OF AGE GROUP 15-24: CHINA 2 2 1 1 1 1 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 7 6 Figure 55. POPULATION GROWTH OF AGE GROUP 15-24: CHINA (percentage annual) 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1-1 -1-2 -3 1951-55 1956-6 1961-65 1966-7 1971-75 1976-8 1981-85 1986-9 1991-95 1996-1-5 6-1 11-15 -2-3 Page 31 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

2 Population : Age Group 15-24, 15-64 Figure 56. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF 15-24 AGE GROUP: CHINA 2 1 1 1 1 1 19 Figure 57. 196 197 198 199 PROJECTIONS OF WORKING AGE POPULATION 15-64: CHINA 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 1 1 1 8 6 19 Page 32 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 8 6 www.

Median Age Across: Time, Countries 35 Figure 58. MEDIAN AGE: CHINA (years) 35 25 25 15 15 1 1 5 5 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 45 Figure 59. COMPARISON OF MEDIAN AGE OF: CHINA (years) Lastest data as of 1 45 35 35 25 15 1 5 Japan Germany Italy Finland Austria Switzerland Greece Belgium Portugal Netherlands Sweden Denmark Spain France Canada Hungary United Kingdom Czech Republlic Norway Poland Russia Korea Singapore Australia USA New Zealand Page 33 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global Ireland China Thailand Chile Argentina Israel Brazil Turkey Vietnam Indonesia Colombia Mexico Morocco Malaysia Peru India South Africa Egypt Philippines 25 15 1 5 www.

Dependency Ratio, Employment to Population Ratio(Age 15-24) 9 8 7 Figure 6. Overall Dependency Ratio*: CHINA (percentage of working population) < Age 15 > Age 64 9 8 7 6 1 8 7 196 1962 1964 1966 1968 197 1972 1974 1976 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 4 6 8 1 12 * A measure of the portion of a population which is composed of dependents (people who are too young or too old to work), expressed as a percentage of the working age population (age group 15-64). Overall Dependency Ratio = Dependency Ratio of Age Group < 15 + Dependency Ratio of Age Group > 64. Source: World Bank. Figure 61. EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIO, AGE GROUP 15-24: CHINA (percentage of age group population) Female Male Total 6 1 8 7 6 6 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 Source: World Bank. Page 34 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

1.6 1.5 Figure 62. CHINA: POPULATION & PROJECTIONS (billions of persons) China: Population 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1. 1.1 1..9.9.8.8.7.7.6.6.5 196 197 198 199 Source: United Nations World Population Prospects. 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 6.5 2 Figure 63. CHINA: POPULATION (1-year change, millions of persons) 2 1 1 1 1 14 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People s Republic of China. Page 35 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

25 Figure 64. CHINA: RURAL POPULATION (yearly change in millions) China: Population 25 15 15 1 1 5 5-5 -5-1 -1 14-15 -15-52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 - Source: United Nations World Population Prospects, World Urbanization Prospects and Haver Analytics. Figure 65. CHINA: URBAN POPULATION (yearly change in millions) 25 25 14 15 15 1 1 5 5 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 Source: State Statistical Bureau of the People s Republic of China. Page 36 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Figure 66. 94 94 92 CHINA: RURAL POPULATION 92 9 (as a percent of total population) 9 88 88 86 86 84 84 82 82 8 8 78 78 76 76 74 74 72 72 7 7 68 68 66 66 64 64 62 62 6 6 58 58 56 56 54 54 52 52 48 48 46 14 46 44 44 52 54 56 58 6 62 64 66 68 7 72 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 Source: State Statistical Bureau, People s Republic of China. China: Population 6 Figure 67. CHINA: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN URBAN AREAS (percent) 6 5 5 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 Source: State Statistical Bureau, People s Republic of China. 1 Page 37 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

China: Population 9 8 7 6 1 Figure 68. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: CHINA (percent of total population) 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 9 8 7 6 1 Page 38 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

1 Figure 69. JAPAN: POPULATION* (millions, 12-month average) Japan: Population 1 Nov 125 125 1 1 115 115 11 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 11 * Population data starting in October 1 are based on the preliminary count of the 1 Population Census while population data prior to October 1 are based on the old 5 Population Census. Source: Ministry of Public Management. 1.8 1.5 Figure 7. JAPAN: POPULATION* (yearly percent change in 12-month average) 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.2.9.9.6.6.3.3.. -.3 Nov -.3 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 * Population data starting in October 1 are based on the preliminary count of the 1 Population Census while population data prior to October 1 are based on the old 5 Population Census * Source: Ministry of Public Management. Page 39 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Japan: Population Figure 71. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: JAPAN (percent of total population) 1 9 8 7 6 1 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 1 9 8 7 6 1 Page / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

Urbanization: India, Brazil 6 Figure 72. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: INDIA (percent of total population) 6 1 1 9 19 Figure 73. 196 197 198 199 POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: BRAZIL (percent of total population) 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 1 1 9 8 7 6 19 Page 41 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 8 7 6 www.

Urbanization: Russia 9 8 Figure 74. POPULATION ESTIMATES & PROJECTIONS OF URBAN POPULATION: RUSSIA (percent of total population) 9 8 7 6 19 196 197 198 199 5 1 15 25 35 45 55 7 6 Page 42 / December 1, 15 / Demography Briefing: Global www.

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