R o u t i n e a n d a g e i n g? I n t e r g e n e r a t i o n a l d i v i d e i n t h e t a s k c o m p o s i t i o n of j o b s i n E u r o p e P i o t r L e w a n d o w s k i W o j c i e c h H a r d y R o m a K e i s t e r
Tasks what are they and how to categorise them? TASK a unit of work activity that produces output SKILLS worker s abilities for performing various tasks
Tasks what are they and how to categorise them? TASK a unit of work activity that produces output SKILLS worker s abilities for performing various tasks
Particular occupations are more intensive in particular tasks Non-routine cognitive (analytical and personal) Managers IT specialists Architects Engineers Routine cognitive Bookkeepers Tellers Office clerks Salespersons Manual (routine and non-routine) Assemblers Toolmakers Drivers Farmers
Tasks help to understand when labour is substituted and when complemented by modern technology progress
How do we measure the task content of jobs? EU-LFS data for 12 EU countries in 1998-2014
How do we measure the task content of jobs? EU-LFS data for 12 EU countries in 1998-2014 O*NET data editions 2003 and 2014
How do we measure the task content of jobs? EU-LFS data for 12 EU countries in 1998-2014 O*NET data editions 2003 and 2014 5 annual country-level task content measures Autor & Acemoglu (2011)
Non-routine ones cognitive tasks increase everywhere, but developments of routine ones vary Non-routine cognitive analytical Routine cognitive Sweden UK Austria 30 10-10 Belgium Czech Rep. Sweden UK Austria 30 10-10 Belgium Czech Rep. Spain -30 Estonia Spain -30 Estonia Poland France Poland France Hungary Greece Germany Hungary Greece Germany
Manual tasks, especially routine, shrink Routine manual Non-routine manual physical Sweden UK Austria 30 10-10 Belgium Czech Rep. Sweden UK Austria 30 10-10 Belgium Czech Rep. Spain -30 Estonia Spain -30 Estonia Poland France Poland France Hungary Greece Germany Hungary Greece Germany
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Non-routine cognitive tasks (pictured analytical): Younger cohorts are leapfrogging older cohorts Poland Sweden 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80 1945-1949 1950-1954 1955-1959 1960-1964 1965-1969 1970-1974 1975-1979 1980-1984 1985-1989 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80 1945-1949 1950-1954 1955-1959 1960-1964 1965-1969 1970-1974 1975-1979 1980-1984 1985-1989
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Routine cognitive tasks: Reshuffling of cohorts in some countries, parallel declines in others 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 Poland 1945-1949 1950-1954 1955-1959 1960-1964 1965-1969 1970-1974 1975-1979 1980-1984 1985-1989 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 Spain 1945-1949 1950-1954 1955-1959 1960-1964 1965-1969 1970-1974 1975-1979 1980-1984 1985-1989
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Routine manual tasks: Steepest decline among younger cohorts Poland Germany 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0-20 -20-40 1945-1949 1950-1954 1955-1959 1960-1964 1965-1969 1970-1974 1975-1979 1980-1984 1985-1989 -40 1945-1949 1950-1954 1955-1959 1960-1964 1965-1969 1970-1974 1975-1979 1980-1984 1985-1989
Tasks of various cohorts evolved differently in 1998-2014 Differences in task structures between cohorts decreased, except for routine cognitive tasks no clear pattern In comparison to the older cohorts, younger cohorts perform increasingly more non-routine cognitive tasks gradually less manual tasks
Not all highly routine jobs are prone to automation Jobs rich in routine tasks are often rich in non-routine ones too Autor & Dorn (2009) index of routine-task intensity RTI increases with relative importance of routine tasks, falls with relative importance of non-routine ones i occupations RTI i = ln (RC+RM) ln (NRCA+NRCP) RTI based on 1998 country-specific task structures, 100 occupations per country
Routine intensive occupations are ageing faster Panel fixed effects estimation Δ mean age of occupation i, 1998-2010 Germany Spain Sweden Poland RTI in occupation i in 1998 0.54** 0.79** 0.17 0.87 Δ share of occupation i, 1998-2010 -0.49 0.07 0.14 0.22**
As the share of young workers declines more in routine occupations Panel fixed effects estimation RTI in occupation i in 1998 Germany Spain Δ 15-29 Δ 30-54 Δ 55-64 Δ 15-29 Δ 30-54 Δ 55-64 -0.023** 0.025** 0.002-0.053 0.063-0.008 Δ share of occupation i, 1998-2010 0.023** -0.019-0.005 0.005-0.007 0.001
Plus in Eastern Europe the share of older workers rises Panel fixed effects estimation RTI in occupation i in 1998 Poland Sweden Δ 15-29 Δ 30-54 Δ 55-64 Δ 15-29 Δ 30-54 Δ 55-64 -0.023** 0.010 0.012 0.010-0.000-0.011 Δ share of occupation i, 1998-2010 0.002-0.024 0.005-0.001 0.001-0.005
Higher routine intensity correlates with higher risk of unemployment Germany Spain 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 * 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 * 1.0 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 1.0 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Odds-ratios from country-specific logit regressions
Mainly among young and prime-aged workers Poland Sweden 1.7 1.6 2.4 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 1.0 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Odds-ratios from country-specific logit regressions
What tasks say about intergenerational differences in jobs Widespread shift from manual to cognitive work, with routine cognitive tasks shrinking in richer (EU15) countries Younger cohorts experience this change stronger than older cohorts Routine-intensive occupations: Age faster because of declining share of young workers Create higher unemployment risk for the young and prime-aged Routine cognitive tasks likely to as ICT stock and technology prices
Piotr Lewandowski piotr.lewandowski@ibs.org.pl www.ibs.org.pl @ibs_warsaw