Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow

Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow School Enrollment Analysis West Bend Joint School District May 2008 Contact: Richelle Winkler, rwinkler@ssc.wisc.edu, (608) 262-1216 or Jennifer Huck, jhuck@ssc.wisc.edu, (608) 890-2077

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Table of Contents Table of Contents... iii List of Tables, Figures, and Maps... iv Introduction... 1 District Enrollment History, 1998-2007... 1 Student Geography... 5 Comparing Past Projections to Recent Enrollment... 9 Birth Trends... 11 Kindergarten Enrollment Analysis... 12 Population Estimates and Projections... 19 Housing Trends... 22 Current Housing Stock and Students per Housing Unit... 25 Expected Future Housing Development... 34 Enrollment Projection Methods... 39 School Enrollment Projections, 2008-2017... 41 Baseline Projection... 41 Slow Growth Projection... 42 High Growth Projection... 43 Momentum Projection... 44 Residential Development Projection... 46 Comparison of Projection Models... 49 Conclusions... 53 Individual Schools Enrollment Projections... 54 Barton Elementary... 55 Decorah Elementary... 59 Fair Park Elementary... 63 Green Tree Elementary... 67 Jackson Elementary... 71 McLane Elementary... 75 Badger Middle School... 80 Silverbrook Middle School... 84 East & West High Schools... 88 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District iii

List of Tables, Figures, & Maps Table 1: Enrollment history, 1998-2007 in the WBJSD...3 Table 2: Enrollment changes, 1998-2007 in the WBJSD... 3 Table 3: WBJSD students by municipal residence, 2005-2007... 8 Table 4: Comparison of actual enrollments for Fall 2007 with APL projected enrollment (2004)... 9 Table 5: Public and private kindergarten enrollment in the WBJSD area, 2000-2007... 16 Table 6: Population estimates for area municipalities, 1990-2007... 19 Table 7: Population projections for area municipalities, 1980-2020... 20 Table 8: WBJSD area housing starts by municipality and type of unit, 1998-2007... 24 Table 9: Children per housing unit in Washington County, WI at Census 2000... 25 Table 10: Housing stock in the City of West Bend, 2005-2007... 26 Table 11: Housing stock in the towns and villages surrounding West Bend, 2005-2007... 26 Table 12: Students per housing unit by grade grouping in the City of West Bend, 2005-2007... 31 Table 13: Students per housing unit by grade grouping in the surrounding area, 2005-2007... 31 Table 14: Annual expected housing development in WBJSD area, 2008-2012... 37 Table 15: Subdivisions with 50 or more residential units in the WBJSD area... 37 Table 16: Grade progression ratios, 1998-2007... 39 Table 17: Baseline projection model results... 41 Table 18: Slow growth projection model results... 42 Table 19: High growth projection model results... 43 Table 20: Momentum projection model results... 45 Table 21: Students per housing unit ratios by grade and housing type, Fall 2007... 46 Table 22: Annual expected housing development & expected students by housing type, 2008-2012... 47 Table 23: Residential development projection model results... 48 Figure 1A: K-12 enrollment in the WBJSD, 1998-2007... 2 Figure 1B: Enrollment by grade grouping in the WBJSD, 1998-2007... 4 Figure 1C: Age structure of WBJSD students, Fall 2007...4 Figure 2: Comparing 2004 APL projections to 2007 actual enrollment... 10 Figure 3: Area births, 1987-2012... 11 Figure 4: Kindergarten enrollment, 1998-2017... 12 Figure 5: Kindergarten replacement, 1998-2007... 13 Figure 6: Birth to kindergarten ratios, 1999-2007... 14 Figure 7: Public and private kindergarten enrollment in the WBJSD area, 2000-2007... 16 Figure 8: Age structure of the total population of Washington County, 2000 & 2010... 21 Figure 9A: WBJSD area housing starts by municipality, 1998-2007... 22 Figure 9B: WBJSD area housing starts by type of unit, 1998-2007... 23 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District iv

Figure 10: Students per housing unit in WBJSD by municipality, Fall 2007... 32 Figure 11: Actual and planned housing starts by type of unit, 1998-2012... 36 Figure 12: Grade progression ratios by projection model... 40 Figure 13: K-12 enrollment history and projections, 1998-2017... 49 Figure 14: K-5 enrollment history and projections, 1998-2017... 50 Figure 15: 6-8 enrollment history and projections, 1998-2017... 51 Figure 16: 9-12 enrollment history and projections, 1998-2017... 52 Figure 17: Enrollment history by elementary school (grades K-5), 1998-2007... 54 Figure 18: Enrollment history by middle school (grades 6-8), 1998-2007... 79 Figure 19: Enrollment history by high school (grades 9-12), 1998-2007... 88 Map 1: Geographic distribution of WBJSD students in grades K-5, Fall 2007... 5 Map 2: Geographic distribution of WBJSD students in grades 6-8, Fall 2007... 6 Map 3: Geographic distribution of WBJSD students in grades 9-12, Fall 2007... 7 Map 4: Municipal birth to kindergarten ratios, Fall 2007... 15 Map 5: WBJSD and private school kindergartners, Fall 2006... 17 Map 6: WBJSD and private school kindergartners, Fall 2007... 18 Map 7: Year built for single family homes in the Ciy of West Bend... 27 Map 8: Year built for single family homes in the C. of West Bend & K-12 WBJSD students (2007)... 28 Map 9: Assessed housing value for single family homes in the Ciy of West Bend... 29 Map 10: Housing value for single family homes in C. West Bend & K-12 WBJSD students (2007)... 30 Map 11: Subdivisions with 50 units or more in the West Bend area, approved since 1990... 38 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District v

West Bend Joint School District Enrollment Analysis The following is a summary of the Student Enrollment Analysis completed for the West Bend Joint School District by the Applied Population Laboratory (APL), University of Wisconsin Madison in April 2008. Projections (2008 2017) are provided for the district as a whole, individually for each grade and grade grouping, and for the individual schools within the school district. The projection process uses a combination of historical enrollment data, birth trends and projections, housing development data, GIS analysis, and population trends and projections to create reasonable assumptions about future growth scenarios and the likely impact on the school district. In addition, a detailed housing development analysis was conducted, including: analysis of trends in housing development, expected future housing development, the number of students living in different types of housing units over the last three years, and neighborhoods in which students tend to cluster within the district area. Finally, kindergarten students were specifically analyzed to compare the number of kindergarteners to the number of births in the district area five years previous and to explain recent increases in kindergarten enrollment. Please contact one of the authors with any questions, comments, or concerns. Richelle Winkler, Associate Reseacher at APL, rwinkler@ssc.wisc.edu, 608-262-1216 Heidi Banfi, GIS Specialist Intern at APL, hmbanfi@wisc.edu Jennifer Huck, Assistant Reseacher at APL, jhuck@ssc.wisc.edu We would like to acknowledge the planning and GIS staff at the City of West Bend and Washington County for their helpfulness and support on this project. The GIS work shown in this report would not have been possible without the data provision, geo-coding, and explanations offered by these folks. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 1

District Enrollment History, 1998-2007 Figures 1-A, 1-B, and 1-C and Tables 1 and 2 show the last ten years of enrollment history in the West Bend Joint School District (WBJSD). District enrollment has been increasing since 2001, growing by 288 students (4.4%) over the last six years. Figure 1-A West Bend Joint School District K-12 Enrollment, 1998-2007 7,000 6,900 6,800 6,700 6,600 6,500 6,400 6,300 6,200 6,100 6,000 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 Figure 1-B shows enrollment history broken down by grade groupings (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12). Elementary school enrollment has increased rapidly over the last five years, growing by about 12.5% since Fall 2002 and accounting for all of the growth in the district over the last five years. Middle school and high school enrollment have both remained fairly stable or decreased somewhat over the last few years. Figure 1-C shows the age structure in Fall 2007 of the WBJSD student population with the number of kindergarteners at the bottom and the number of 12 th graders at top. High school cohorts are relatively large, in comparison to other age groups. Cohorts in grades 3-8 are small in 2007. Cohorts in grades K-2 are relatively large. Also of note (though not shown here) is that the population of private school students in the area follows an almost identical pattern. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 2

TABLE 1 ENROLLMENT HISTORY, 1998/99-2007/08 West Bend Joint School District SCHOOL YEAR 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 K 405 405 425 460 434 455 477 497 505 538 1 447 429 413 424 474 468 468 468 522 514 2 449 453 437 420 440 480 466 469 475 517 3 438 454 457 436 430 447 474 478 483 488 4 489 461 466 448 440 452 461 486 476 477 5 459 505 461 460 451 449 459 467 490 468 6 485 462 506 479 475 475 454 458 450 507 7 466 490 474 506 487 483 486 466 477 464 8 496 474 495 480 513 494 480 485 469 475 9 594 604 592 527 617 619 606 565 617 570 10 634 602 611 690 614 604 627 605 563 631 11 705 715 647 596 675 675 675 675 684 643 12 538 537 559 608 547 546 552 550 559 530 TOTAL 6,605 6,591 6,543 6,534 6,597 6,647 6,685 6,669 6,770 6,822 K-12 6,605 6,591 6,543 6,534 6,597 6,647 6,685 6,669 6,770 6,822 K-5 2,687 2,707 2,659 2,648 2,669 2,751 2,805 2,865 2,951 3,002 6-8 1,447 1,426 1,475 1,465 1,475 1,452 1,420 1,409 1,396 1,446 9-12 2,471 2,458 2,409 2,421 2,453 2,444 2,460 2,395 2,423 2,374 TABLE 2 ENROLLMENT CHANGES,1998/99-2007/08 West Bend Joint School District ABSOLUTE CHANGE PERCENT CHANGE AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE GRADE '98 to '07 '98 to '02 '03 to '07 '98 to '07 '98 to '02 '03 to '07 '98 to '07 '98 to '02 '03 to '07 K 133 29 83 32.8 7.2 18.2 3.6 1.8 4.6 1 67 27 46 15.0 6.0 9.8 1.7 1.5 2.5 2 68-9 37 15.1-2.0 7.7 1.7-0.5 1.9 3 50-8 41 11.4-1.8 9.2 1.3-0.5 2.3 4-12 -49 25-2.5-10.0 5.5-0.3-2.5 1.4 5 9-8 19 2.0-1.7 4.2 0.2-0.4 1.1 6 22-10 32 4.5-2.1 6.7 0.5-0.5 1.7 7-2 21-19 -0.4 4.5-3.9 0.0 1.1-1.0 8-21 17-19 -4.2 3.4-3.8-0.5 0.9-1.0 9-24 23-49 -4.0 3.9-7.9-0.4 1.0-2.0 10-3 -20 27-0.5-3.2 4.5-0.1-0.8 1.1 11-62 -30-32 -8.8-4.3-4.7-1.0-1.1-1.2 12-8 9-16 -1.5 1.7-2.9-0.2 0.4-0.7 TOTAL 217-8 175 3.3-0.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.7 K-12 217-8 175 3.3-0.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.7 K-5 315-18 251 11.7-0.7 9.1 1.3-0.2 2.3 6-8 -1 28-6 -0.1 1.9-0.4 0.0 0.5-0.1 9-12 -97-18 -70-3.9-0.7-2.9-0.4-0.2-0.7 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 3

Figure 1-B West Bend Joint School District Enrollment by Grade Grouping, 1998-2007 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 K-5 6-8 9-12 Figure 1-C West Bend Joint School District Age Structure, Fall 2007 12 530 11 10 643 631 9 570 Grade 8 7 6 5 4 475 464 468 477 507 3 488 2 1 K 517 514 538 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Number of Students Enrolled School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 4

Student Geography The following maps examine where students attending the West Bend Joint School District (WBJSD) in Fall 2007 live by grade level (K-5, 6-8, and 9-12). K-5 students tend to cluster in specific areas. For instance, the area incompassed by Glacial Blue Hills Recreation Area to Main St. and down to Park Ave. (near Green Tree Elementary and Sunset and Regner Parks) is home to many elementary students. Students also cluster between Lac Lawrann Conservancy, N. Trenton Road and E. Washington Street in the Fair Park Elementary Area. Students of all ages consistently cluster in the central city around Main Street in the areas of Regner Park, Silver Brook Parkway, Kenny Park, Riverside Park and the YMCA Kettle Moraine. In the Village of Jackson, most students live within subdivisions. Map 1: Geographic Distribution of WBJSD Students in Grades K-5, Fall 2007 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 5

Map 2: Geographic Distribution of WBJSD Students in Grades 6-8, Fall 2007 Middle school students in the WBJSD tend to cluster in similar areas as the elementary students-- the area between N. Trenton Road, E. Washington Street, Main Street and Lac Lawrann Conservancy. Several middle school students also live the Villa Park Area. The northern part of the City of West Bend and particularly the area between Main Street and Highway 45 also houses many middle school students, mostly within subdivisions. Similarly, the Village of Jackson sees clusters of middle schoolers in subdivisions as well. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 6

Map 3: Geographic Distribution of WBJSD Students in Grades 9-12, Fall 2007 High school students in the WBJSD have followed similar patterns as previously mentioned, with clusters in the Trenton/Washington/Main area, the northern part of the city, and running through the central city. However, we see a few more students coming from the west central part of the district, near Little Cedar Lake than at other ages. The subdivisions in Jackson have tended to have fewer high schoolers than children of other ages. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 7

Table 3 shows the number and percent of WBJSD students residing in each municipality. Most students (61% of K-12 students) live in the City of West Bend. The proportion is even higher for younger students-- 64% of K-5 students lived in the City of West Bend in Fall 2007. TABLE 3 Students by Municipal Residence West Bend Joint School District Number of West Bend Joint SD Students by Municipal Residence Muncipal Residence 2005 2006 2007 Percent of Total (2007) K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 C. West Bend 3,940 1,719 823 1,398 3,659 1,782 848 1,029 4,141 1,919 851 1,371 61% 64% 59% 58% V. Jackson 709 345 170 194 606 315 159 132 749 376 168 205 11% 13% 12% 9% V. Newburg 135 68 25 42 138 72 29 37 166 72 36 58 2% 2% 2% 2% T. Barton 301 88 72 141 272 99 72 101 283 94 58 131 4% 3% 4% 6% T. Jackson 244 103 46 95 225 103 46 76 228 99 57 72 3% 3% 4% 3% T. Trenton 588 205 121 262 592 238 141 213 639 226 144 269 9% 8% 10% 11% T. West Bend 374 128 82 164 328 135 75 118 367 126 78 163 5% 4% 5% 7% T. Farmington 56 19 12 25 54 21 9 24 63 17 16 30 0.9% 0.6% 1% 1% T. Polk 39 10 5 24 37 12 7 18 48 14 9 25 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 1% Other Washington Co. 63 25 14 24 41 20 7 14 50 21 12 17 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% Outside Washington Co. 12 5 1 6 10 5 2 3 21 10 4 7 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Unknown Residence 208 150 38 20 808 149 1 658 67 28 13 26 1% 0.9% 0.9% 1% Total 6,669 2,865 1,409 2,395 6,770 2,951 1,396 2,423 6,822 3,002 1,446 2,374 100% 100% 100% 100% Note: A certain number of students could not be matched to a specific address. These students are included in the table above under the unknown residence category, but they are not shown in the maps above. The number of unmatched students was significantly higher in 2005 and 2006 than in 2007. In 2006, most of this error is due to a lack of matching for 658 high school students. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 8

Comparing Past Projections to Recent Enrollment The APL last completed a set of school enrollment projections for the West Bend Joint School District in 2004. Here, we compare the results of that study to observed enrollment in the last three years. Table 4 and Figure 2 compare projections completed in Fall 2004 to actual enrollment observed in Fall 2007 for three projection models. The mean absolute error (MAE) for individual grade level projections was 18-20 students. In other words, the projections missed actual enrollment three years later at the individual grade level by an average of 18-20 students (about 3.6%). In particular, the projections exhibit error at the elementary level, where the Baseline model projected 98 fewer students than what transpired (3.3% error). For the middle and high school levels, APL projections were much closer to reality (Baseline model exhibits error of 1.9% and 1.4%, respectively). Overall, most of the error occurred because the projections under-estimated the number of kindergartners who would enroll in the district in each of the last three years. TABLE 4 West Bend Joint School District Comparison of Actual Enrollments for Fall 2007 with Projected Enrollment (2004) ACTUAL ENROLLMENT Baseline Model Last 5 Year Trend Last 2 Year Trend GRADE 07-08 Projected Difference Projected Difference Projected Difference K 538 480-58 474-64 476-62 1 514 475-39 471-43 488-26 2 517 488-29 481-36 498-19 3 488 498 10 495 7 507 19 4 477 484 7 480 3 485 8 5 468 479 11 478 10 490 22 6 507 484-23 492-15 512 5 7 464 465 1 472 8 485 21 8 475 470-5 479 4 483 8 9 570 580 10 582 12 572 2 10 631 593-38 597-34 581-50 11 643 643 0 656 13 639-4 12 530 524-6 536 6 543 13 TOTAL 4,448 4,323-125 4,323-125 4,424-24 K-5 3,002 2,904-98 2,879-123 2,944-58 6-8 1,446 1,419-27 1,443-3 1,480 34 9-12 2,374 2,340-34 2,372-2 2,335-39 MAE 18 20 20 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 9

Figure 2 Comparing 2004 Projections to 2007 Enrollment West Bend Joint School District 700 600 500 Enrollment 400 300 200 100 0 K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Observed 2007 Enrollment Baseline Model 5 Year Trend Model 2 Year Trend Model Kindergarten students are the most difficult group to project, because of the long lag time between birth (when they can first be counted) and enrollment in kindergarten (when they can next be counted). In particular, the APL projections underestimated kindergarteners for West Bend because the ratio of kindergarteners to births five years previous was higher in each of the last three years than it had been since 1994-95. This means that the district experienced either a surprising number of in-migrants in the years between birth and kindergarten and/or a larger proportion of kindergarteners have chosen recently to attend public, rather than private schools. This issue is explored in detail in the section on kindergarten enrollment. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 10

Birth Trends We use historical and projected birth data to inform forecasts of the number of kindergarten students who will enroll in the West Bend Joint School District in future years. Figure 3 shows (in black) the number of births from 1987 through 2006 to mothers who live in municipalities that fall at least partly within the school district boundaries (C. West Bend, V. Newburg, V. Jackson, T. Barton, T. Jackson, T. Trenton, and T. West Bend). Data are collected from the Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services. Births have generally increased from approximately 600 in 1987 to approximately 700 in 2006. Between 1999 and 2005, birth numbers decreased somewhat from their peak of 711. Births for 2006, however, (n=699) reached the second highest number recorded in the last twenty years. We extrapolate past birth trends into the future to correspond with our projection models. The red line in Figure 3 represents birth trends between 1987 and 2006 and shows increase, corresponding with the Baseline and High Growth models shown later in this report. The blue line assumes that births will remain steady over the next five years, corresponding with our Slow Growth projection model. Figure 3 800 700 West Bend Joint School District Area Births, 1987-2012 Observed Projected 600 500 Births 400 300 200 100 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Actual Baseline Last Year School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 11

Kindergarten Enrollment Analysis Examining trends in kindergarten enrollment is particularly informative for gaining perspective on future district enrollment because today s kindergarteners will gradually make up tomorrow s students at the higher grade levels as they age and move through the school system. When kindergarten enrollment is increasing, elementary and middle school enrollment might be expected to increase in the near future, while high school enrollment may increase later. Figure 4 shows kindergarten enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting what future kindergarten enrollment might be if these trends were to continue into the future in red and blue. The Long Term trend line averages changes in kindergarten enrollment each year between 1998 and 2007. The Recent Trend emphasizes changes in the last five years. Kindergarten enrollment has been steadily increasing in the WBJSD area, and it has increased at a faster rate in the last five years than it did in the late 1990s. Figure 4 West Bend Joint School District Kindergarten Enrollment, 1998-2017 800 Actual Trends Extended 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Long Term Trend Recent Trend Actual School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 12

In addition to examining kindergarten enrollment on its own, comparing kindergarten enrollment to graduating seniors offers a quick snapshot of how the age structure of a district enrollment is shifting either from older to younger, or younger to older. Districts tend to experience overall growth when kindergarten enrollment outpaces the number of graduating seniors, and they tend to experience decline when kindergarteners do not fully replace the number of graduates. However, either of these trends can be tempered by transfers into or out of the district in the in-between years. In the West Bend Joint School District, entering kindergarteners have tended to be fewer than graduating seniors. This is likely due, at least in part, to the number of children who attend private school for their elementary years, then transfer into the public school system at later ages. Still, in the last few years, the gap between these two has decreased markedly. Figure 5 650 West Bend Joint School District Kindergarten Replacement, 1998-2007 600 550 '06 Grads 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 Kindergarten Enrollment Last Year's 12th Grade As mentioned above, the number of new kindergarteners in the last three years (2005, 2006, and 2007) has been higher than expected. How can this increase in kindergarten enrollment be explained? We can begin to understand kindergarten enrollment trends by examining birth trends five years previous. The number of births to women living in the West Bend area was greater starting in 1999 (capturing students who would begin kindergarten in 2004 and 2005) than it had been any time in the previous fifteen years and explains some of the recent increase in kindergarten students. Still, previous projections accounted for this increase in births; yet, at the same time, the actual increase in the last few years was even higher School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 13

than what these high birth counts suggested, meaning that the high birth numbers do not fully account for the increase in kindergarteners. In order to examine changes in kindergarten enrollment that are not due to changes in birth numbers, we employ a ratio comparing the number of births five years previous to kindergarten enrollment and refer to this ratio as the birth to kindergarten (B:K) ratio. Because birth data is available at the municipal level, some of the births included in this ratio are to women living in townships outside the district boundary, and so the ratio is expected to be less than 1.0. Also, several children attend private kindergarten, which would further lower the ratio below 1.0. In-migration to the district area between birth and the start of kindergarten would increase the ratio and vice versa with out-migration. Figure 6 examines how this ratio has changed in recent years in the West Bend Joint School District. Figure 6 Birth to Kindergarten Ratios West Bend Joint School District 0.800 0.750 0.700 0.650 0.600 0.550 0.500 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 On average, in the last ten years the number of kindergarteners enrolled in the West Bend Joint School District has been about 70% of the number of children born in the district area. In the last three years, however, the ratio has been higher (averaging 75%) than it had been since 1995. Patterns in the B:K ratio vary somewhat between the different municipalities that feed into the school district. Map 4 shows the B:K ratio by municipality (blue scale background colors) and where kindergarten students enrolling in the West Bend Joint School District lived in Fall 2007. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 14

Map 4: Municipal Birth to Kindergarten Ratios, Fall 2007 The Towns of Barton and Trenton both had B:K ratios above 0.90 in both 2006 and 2007. The City of West Bend and the Villages of Jackson and Newburg had B:K ratios between 0.76 and 0.90, indicating that more children living in these areas attend private schools than those living in Barton or Trenton. Finally, ratios in the Towns of West Bend and Jackson were lower, due largely to the fact that a significant amount of the township area falls outside the boundaries of the school district. Overall, analysis of the B:K ratios leads to the conclusion that the recent increase in kindergarten students is related to either a change in the proportion of students who attend private (rather than public) school and/or an increase in the net migration of children under age 5. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 15

Figure 7 and Table 5 compare kindergarten enrollment in private schools within the West Bend area to enrollment in the West Bend Joint School District over the last several years. While West Bend enrollment has been increasing, private kindergarten enrollment has declined somewhat in recent years. In other words, in Fall 2000, the proportion of kindergarteners who attended public school was 70.7% compared to 77.2% in 2005 and 76.9% in 2007. This suggests that a shift in the proportion of parents who choose public vs. private school for their kindergarten children has occurred in the last few years, and public schools are becoming a more popular choice than what was true in the previous several years. 800 700 Figure 7 West Bend Joint SD Private Schools Public and Private Kindergarten Enrollment West Bend Joint School District Area, 2000-2007 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 TABLE 5 Kindergarten Enrollment School Name 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 First Baptist Academy 0 8 0 5 6 2 0 0 Good Shepherd Lutheran 20 21 24 24 20 22 15 32 Holy Angels 49 50 36 41 40 36 31 36 Morning Star Lutheran 17 13 12 9 15 15 15 12 Saint Frances Cabrini 36 36 39 39 36 34 44 34 Saint Johns Lutheran 20 21 25 17 21 11 30 22 Saint Johns Lutheran 4 9 6 7 11 7 4 3 Saint Mary Immacul Concept 21 15 22 15 21 15 10 15 Trinity Lutheran 9 7 8 8 5 7 4 8 West Bend Christian 0 8 3 10 0 0 0 0 Total Private Enrollment 176 172 172 160 169 147 153 162 WBJSD Enrollment 425 460 434 455 477 497 505 538 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 16

Maps 5 and 6 indicate where kindergarteners who were enrolled in private and public schools in the West Bend area in Fall 2006 and Fall 2007 live. Kindergartners in 2006 and in 2007 tend to live in the same areas of the district, indicating that certain neighborhoods tend to be more popular for kindergarten residents. Approximately half of the WBJSD kindergarteners in the City of West Bend live in subdivisions. Also, WBJSD kindergarteners tend to cluster in the northern part of the city between Main Street and Highway 45 in the Green Tree Elementary area. Subdivisions in the Village of Jackson house many Jackson Elementary kindergarteners. Similar to students of other ages, kindergarteners cluster in the area between the Lac Lawrann Conservancy and N. Trenton Road. On the other hand, private school kindergarteners tend to be more evenly distributed throughout the district area. Map 5: WBJSD and Private School Kindergarters, 2006 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 17

Map 6: WBJSD and Private School Kindergarters, 2007 Finally, migration of children under age five into or out of the West Bend area also affects the number of kindergarten students enrolling in the district. Though not a perfect indicator, examining newly built housing can provide a proxy for in-migration. Of the kindergarten students who lived in the City of West Bend and attended West Bend Joint School District in Fall 2006 and Fall 2007, an average of 7.6% (9.2% in 2006 and 6.0% in 2007) lived in housing units that were built within the five years previous, suggesting that they may have moved into the district between birth and enrolling in kindergarten. It is likely that inmigration between birth and kindergarten also contributed to the large kindergarten cohorts of the last two years. However, the lower proportion of kindergarteners living in recently built housing in 2007 suggests that in-migration between birth and kindergarten may be slowing down. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 18

Population Estimates and Projections Table 6 provides Wisconsin Department of Administration (DOA) population estimates for district area municipalities from 1990 to 2007. These municipal estimates can be compared with estimates for Washington County and the State of Wisconsin. Overall, the population of Washington County has grown considerably faster than the State of Wisconsin since 1990. While the West Bend Joint School District area has not grown as rapidly as the county as a whole, population growth rates in the district area have been consistently higher than those in Wisconsin as a whole and particularly high in the early 1990s and between 2004 and 2006. Within the district, the highest growth rates in the last few years have occurred in the Village of Jackson and the Town of Jackson. TABLE 6 West Bend Joint School District POPULATION ESTIMATES FOR AREA MUNICIPALITIES: 1990-2007 POPULATION Census est. Census est. est. est. est. est. est. est. Municipality 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 C. West Bend 24,470 27,607 28,152 28,353 28,630 29,001 29,204 29,612 30,090 30,220 V. Newburg 853 946 1,027 1,031 1,037 1,043 1,066 1,075 1,106 1,102 V. Jackson 2,486 3,669 4,938 5,119 5,316 5,543 5,678 5,884 6,017 6,152 T. Barton 2,586 2,775 2,546 2,552 2,552 2,561 2,587 2,616 2,636 2,636 T. Jackson 3,172 3,342 3,516 3,532 3,549 3,567 3,637 3,767 3,821 3,892 T. Trenton 3,967 4,239 4,440 4,461 4,494 4,546 4,595 4,677 4,754 4,766 T. West Bend 4,165 4,499 4,834 4,808 4,822 4,816 4,835 4,856 4,857 4,872 District Area 41,699 47,077 49,453 49,856 50,400 51,077 51,602 52,487 53,281 53,640 Washington County 95,328 106,966 117,496 118,686 120,429 121,929 123,587 125,940 127,871 129,316 State of Wisconsin 4,891,769 5,101,581 5,363,675 5,400,449 5,453,896 5,490,718 5,532,955 5,580,000 5,617,744 5,648,124 PERCENT CHANGE AVG. 1990 to 1995 to 2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to ANNUAL Municipality 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1990-2005 C. West Bend 12.8% 2.0% 0.7% 1.0% 1.3% 0.7% 1.4% 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% V. Newburg 10.9% 8.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 2.2% 0.8% 2.9% -0.4% 1.7% V. Jackson 47.6% 34.6% 3.7% 3.8% 4.3% 2.4% 3.6% 2.3% 2.2% 9.1% T. Barton 7.3% -8.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% T. Jackson 5.4% 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 2.0% 3.6% 1.4% 1.9% 1.4% T. Trenton 6.9% 4.7% 0.5% 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 1.8% 1.6% 0.3% 1.2% T. West Bend 8.0% 7.4% -0.5% 0.3% -0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% District Area 12.9% 5.0% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 0.7% 1.7% Washington County 12.2% 9.8% 1.0% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 1.5% 1.1% 2.1% State of Wisconsin 4.3% 5.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% Source: Official Population Estimates (1995-2007). Demographic Services Center, DOA. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 19

Population projections for West Bend Joint School District area municipalities are provided in Table 7. These projections suggest that area population will continue to increase between 2008 and 2020. In fact, the district area has been growing even faster than projected. The 2010 2020 projections were published in November of 2003, and since that time some of the area municipalities 2007 population estimates have already outpaced 2010 projections. In this case, projected change is shown as n/a. TABLE 7 West Bend Joint School District POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR AREA MUNCIPALITIES, 1980-2020 POPULATION CHANGE Census Estimate Census Estimate Census Estimate Projections 2000-2020 Municipality 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 C. West Bend 21,484 21,993 24,470 27,607 28,152 29,612 29,868 30,605 31,314 3,162 V. Newburg 688 730 853 946 1,027 1,075 1,101 1,134 1,165 138 V. Jackson 1,745 1,784 2,486 3,669 4,938 5,884 6,079 6,600 7,099 2,161 T. Barton 2,493 2,566 2,586 2,775 2,546 2,616 2,512 2,474 2,436-110 T. Jackson 3,180 3,259 3,172 3,342 3,516 3,767 3,553 3,580 3,603 87 T. Trenton 3,914 3,984 3,967 4,239 4,440 4,677 4,518 4,597 4,670 230 T. West Bend 3,588 3,751 4,165 4,499 4,834 4,856 4,919 4,992 5,058 224 District Area 37,092 38,067 41,699 47,077 49,453 52,487 52,550 53,982 55,345 5,892 Washington County 84,848 87,249 95,328 106,966 117,496 125,940 123,570 129,085 134,255 16,759 State of Wisconsin 4,705,642 4,779,021 4,891,769 5,101,581 5,363,715 5,580,000 5,751,470 5,931,386 6,110,878 747,163 PERCENT CHANGE Observed & Estimated Projected Municipality 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2000-20 C. West Bend 2.4% 11.3% 12.8% 2.0% 5.2% n/a 2.5% 2.3% 11.2% V. Newburg 6.1% 16.8% 10.9% 8.6% 4.7% 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% 13.4% V. Jackson 2.2% 39.3% 47.6% 34.6% 19.2% n/a 8.6% 7.6% 43.8% T. Barton 2.9% 0.8% 7.3% -8.3% 2.7% n/a -1.5% -1.5% -4.3% T. Jackson 2.5% -2.7% 5.4% 5.2% 7.1% n/a 0.8% 0.6% 2.5% T. Trenton 1.8% -0.4% 6.9% 4.7% 5.3% n/a 1.7% 1.6% 5.2% T. West Bend 4.5% 11.0% 8.0% 7.4% 0.5% 1.3% 1.5% 1.3% 4.6% District Area 2.6% 9.5% 12.9% 5.0% 6.1% n/a 2.7% 2.5% 11.9% Washington County 2.8% 9.3% 12.2% 9.8% 7.2% n/a 4.5% 4.0% 14.3% State of Wisconsin 1.6% 2.4% 4.3% 5.1% 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 13.9% ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE Observed & Estimated Projected Municipality 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2000-20 C. West Bend 0.5% 2.3% 2.6% 0.4% 1.0% n/a 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% V. Newburg 1.2% 3.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% V. Jackson 0.4% 7.9% 9.5% 6.9% 3.8% n/a 1.7% 1.5% 2.2% T. Barton 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% -1.7% 0.5% n/a -0.3% -0.3% -0.2% T. Jackson 0.5% -0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.4% n/a 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% T. Trenton 0.4% -0.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1% n/a 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% T. West Bend 0.9% 2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% District Area 0.5% 1.9% 2.6% 1.0% 1.2% n/a 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% Washington County 0.6% 1.9% 2.4% 2.0% 1.4% n/a 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% State of Wisconsin 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% Sources: Population Projections for Wisconsin Municipalities: 2000-2025. Demographic Services Center, DOA. Official Population Estimates (1985, 1995, 2005). Demographic Services Center, DOA. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 20

Figure 8 compares Census 2000 population counts by age in Washginton County to projections of population by age for 2010 generated by the Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services Center. In the county as a whole, the number of children is expected to remain relatively stable between 2000 and 2010, and the number of adults in their prime childbearing years (age 20-34) is projected to increase. Because these projections are for the entirety of Washington County, they may or may not resemble the future age structure of population in the West Bend Joint School District area. Figure 8 100 & Over Age 95-99 90-94 85-89 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Age Structure of the Total Population, 2000 & 2010 Washington County, Wisconsin 2010 Projection Census 2000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 21

Housing Trends Migration into school districts is related to changes in housing options in the district area. Some of this in-migration is due to turnover of existing housing stock, while some is due to families moving into newly built housing. If the number of housing starts in the district area is expected to be reasonably consistent for the next several years, then we assume that in-migration rates of school-age children will also remain relatively consistent. If the number of housing starts is expected to increase significantly above and beyond recent levels, in-migration may play an increasing role in school district enrollment. However, the number of housing starts in any given year is dependent upon a large number of confounding variables (e.g., decisions of local, county, and state policy makers; decisions of residential developers; interest rates; demand for housing; fuel prices), making future growth patterns difficult to predict. Figure 9-A provides information on recent housing starts by municipality and Figure 9-B shows the housing starts by housing type (single-family, duplex, or multi-family) for the district area. Figure 9-A West Bend Joint School District Area Housing Starts by MCD, 1998-2007 700 600 500 Housing Starts 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total C. West Bend V. Newburg V. Jackson T. Barton T. Jackson T. Trenton T. West Bend School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 22

Figure 9-B 700 West Bend Joint School District Area Housing Starts by Type, 1998-2007 600 500 Housing Starts 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total Single Family Duplex Multi-family Table 8 shows the number of housing starts in the West Bend Joint School District area over the past ten years. Residential construction hit its recent peak in 2005 with 587 building permits issued. Since 2005, development has slowed down considerably, and in 2007 only 196 residential building permits were issued. Most of the development in the district area (63% to 82%) has occurred in either the City of West Bend or the Village of Jackson over the last several years. Building activity in the area has been comprised mainly of the construction of single family homes, with an average of 260 permits issued annually over the last ten years. In addition, an average of 62 duplex units and 82 multi-family units have been built each year. Households in multi-family complexes, on average, contain fewer school-aged children than single family homes or duplexes. As the nationwide housing market has slowed down over the last two years and the number of foreclosures has increased dramatically, the West Bend area may also be affected. In March 2008, Washington County ranked 18 of 72 Wisconsin counties in the number of new foreclosures that month (n=7) according to realtytrac.com. Early evidence from the Milwaukee County sheriff s department suggests that, the number of foreclosures in Milwaukee County in 2008 may outnumber the record number from 2007. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 23

TABLE 8 West Bend Joint School District School District Area Housing Starts, 1998-2007 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 District Area TOTAL 425 467 359 347 427 474 479 587 279 196 Single Family 314 278 229 225 235 352 330 291 163 186 Two Family 62 84 76 78 85 55 59 87 30 1 Multi-family 49 105 54 44 107 67 90 209 86 9 Mobile Home 4 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 C. West Bend TOTAL 230 297 162 161 228 205 216 345 113 92 Single Family 135 144 90 93 85 123 134 126 59 90 Two Family 46 48 34 40 52 38 28 62 18 0 Multi-family 49 105 38 28 91 44 54 157 36 2 Mobile Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a V. Newburg TOTAL 2 4 4 3 7 18 12 17 1 2 Single Family 2 4 4 3 3 17 2 1 1 0 Two Family 0 0 0 0 4 1 2 0 0 1 Multi-family 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 16 0 1 Mobile Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a V. Jackson TOTAL 108 88 104 100 89 99 86 85 77 45 Single Family 92 52 52 56 52 60 33 26 15 39 Two Family 16 36 36 28 21 16 25 23 12 0 Multi-family 0 0 16 16 16 23 28 36 50 6 Mobile Home 4 1 1 0 4 1 0 0 0 n/a T. Barton TOTAL 7 10 8 11 18 10 17 22 11 11 Single Family 7 10 8 7 14 10 13 20 11 11 Two Family 0 0 0 4 4 0 4 2 0 0 Multi-family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mobile Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a T. Jackson TOTAL 25 15 15 14 18 63 65 48 37 20 Single Family 25 15 15 14 18 63 65 48 37 20 Two Family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multi-family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mobile Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a T. Trenton TOTAL 18 18 27 20 37 47 58 53 18 12 Single Family 18 18 21 14 33 47 58 53 18 12 Two Family 0 0 6 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 Multi-family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mobile Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a T. West Bend TOTAL 35 35 39 38 30 32 25 17 22 14 Single Family 35 35 39 38 30 32 25 17 22 14 Two Family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Multi-family 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mobile Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n/a It is also important to consider that the turnover in ownership of existing housing stock contributes to changes in enrollment. The district can maintain or even increase enrollment depending upon the cycle of resident homeowners, regardless of housing starts. For instance, a younger community will have a higher children-per-household ratio, whereas an older community will have a lower children-per-household ratio. However, within a few years a turnover in ownership in an older community may result in an increase in children-per-household. As younger families move into the area, the result is new students enrolling into the district s schools. Absent new housing development or housing turnover, families age in place and the number of school aged children in the area eventually declines. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 24

Current Housing Stock and Students per Housing Unit In order to get a better sense for how housing development impacts student enrollment, we examined characteristics of the current stock of housing in the West Bend area with specific attention to the types of housing in which students attending West Bend Joint School District live. Here, we use geographic information systems (GIS) to combine information about current housing stock with information about where students live. This analysis allows for an examination (specific to the West Bend area) of the types of units that students tend to live in, and in what areas of the district they live. Later, we use this knowledge to inform the Residential Development enrollment projection model that is based on the number of students who are likely to move into new residential developments of different types that are expected to occur in the West Bend area over the next several years. Because the number of students per housing unit tends to vary based on housing type (single family versus apartment), assessed value, and year built, we are particularly interested in these characteristics. The number of students per housing unit also varies considerably between different school districts. For these reasons, we specifically analyze information in Washington County and the West Bend Joint School district by housing unit characteristics. At Census 2000 in Washington County, new single family housing units with relatively high values were most likely to have more school aged children than other types of units. On average, single family units in the county had 0.83 children under age 18 per unit, while apartment units had only 0.43 children per unit. Housing units built before 1980 averaged 0.65 children per unit, while units built in the most recent five years (1995-2000) averaged 0.90 children per unit. Owner-occupied housing units valued at less than $100,000 averaged only 0.38 children per unit, compared to those units valued at $200,000 or more that averaged 0.89 children per unit. TABLE 9 Children per Housing Unit in Washington County, WI at Census 2000 Children in Type of Unit Year Built Housing Value Households Single Family Apartment Before 1979 1980-1994 1995 or later < $100K $100-$199K $200K plus Rental Number under 18 27,306 4,282 16,822 9,808 5,247 1,589 16,975 7,234 6,082 Number of Units 33,084 10,005 25,789 12,284 5,837 4,189 21,301 8,095 10,325 Children per Unit 0.825 0.428 0.652 0.798 0.899 0.379 0.797 0.894 0.589 Table 10 summarizes characteristics of the stock of current housing units in the City of West Bend. In 2007, there were approximately 13,314 residential housing units in the city. Of these about 48% were single family homes. Of the 6,430 single family homes, about 27% (1,719) were valued in 2007 at $200,000 or more. While the majority of single family units in the area are relatively affordably priced (<$200,000), almost all new construction (94%) is valued above $200,000 suggesting that little affordable single family housing has been built in the city over the last several years. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 25

TABLE 10 Housing Stock City of West Bend Housing Type Number of Units 2005 2006 2007 Single Family Residential (total) 6,361 6,426 6,430 Built in the last four years 443 433 325 Value <$200,000 35 32 19 Value>$200,000 408 401 306 Built at least 5 years ago 5,918 5,993 6,105 Value <$200,000 4,660 4,678 4,692 Value>$200,000 1,258 1,315 1,413 Duplex (total) 1,211 1,273 1,291 Multi-family (total) 5,400 5,557 5,593 All Housing Units 12,972 13,256 13,314 Source: City of West Bend 2007 Tax Parcel Records Table 11 summarizes current housing stock in the Towns and Villages surrounding the City of West Bend. In 2007, about 87% of housing units in this area were single family homes, and about half (49.6%) of these homes were valued at over $200,000. TABLE 11 Housing Stock West Bend Countryside Housing Type Number of Units 2005 2006 2007 Single Family Residential (total) 7,680 7,845 7,949 Value <$200,000 4,008 4,008 4,008 Value>$200,000 3,672 3,837 3,941 Built in the last four years 846 872 844 Built at least five years ago 6,834 6,973 7,105 Duplex (total) 524 549 561 Multi-family (total) 970 1,022 1,072 All Housing Units 9,174 9,416 9,582 Sources: Census 2000, SF1 & SF3 data; and recent values added from Wisconsin DOA, Demographic Services, Building Permit data Note: Housing values estimated based on values at Census 2000 Maps 7-10 show the geographic distribution of single family housing units in the City of West Bend (based on data from 2007) by year built and assessed value. These maps provide visual information about where different types of housing units are located within the city. Overlaying dots for where students live offers a contextual overview of the relationships between students and housing characteristics. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 26

Map 7 shows the year that each single family housing unit in the City of West Bend was built. Newer housing units tend to be located in the northern part of the city. The area surrounding N. Main Street was the original central city, which still contains the largest cluster of older homes in the district. The areas to the north and south were next to develop followed by more suburban homes in the outskirts of of the city more recently. Areas west of Highway 45 saw very little development until the 1980s. Map 7: Year Built for Single Family Homes in City of West Bend School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 27

Map 8: Year Built for Single Family Homes in City of West Bend & K-12 WBJSD (2007) While WBJSD students are spread throughout the city and live in units of all ages, clusters of students can be found in recently built subdivisions at the northeast, northwest, and southeast edges of the city. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 28

Map 9 shows assessed values for single family housing units in the City of West Bend in 2007. The newer developments tend to have higher home values. The central and northern parts of the city have both older homes and relatively lower values. The area in the southwest part of the city, near Silver Brook Parkway and Kenny Park, has higher values, generally. Also, the areas near Ridge Run County Park and Lac Lawrann Conservancy have higher values. The Lac Lawrann area coincides with clusters of West Bend Joint School District students. Map 9: Assessed Housing Values for Single Family Homes in City of West Bend School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 29

Map 10: Housing Values for Single Family Homes in City of West Bend & K-12 WBJSD Students (2007) School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 30

Next, we calculate the number of students per housing unit based on housing characteristics over the last several years in the West Bend Joint School District. To do this, we divide the number of students living in a particular type of housing unit by the total number of housing units of that type in the West Bend area. We generate these student yield ratios for 2005, 2006, and 2007 for the City of West Bend and for the surrounding countryside and examine how the ratios have changed over the last few years. It is a combination of these student yields over the last three years that are used in the Residential Development enrollment projection model shown later in this report. Tables 12 and 13 show these ratios for the City of West Bend and the surrounding municipalities, respectively, for 2005, 2006, and 2007. Figure 10 shows the ratios for the total West Bend Joint School District area by municipality in Fall 2007. Ratios have generally been stable over the last three years, with no clear change in the ratio of students per housing unit. TABLE 12 City of West Bend: Students per Housing Unit Number of Students living in Housing Units by Type Housing Description 2005 2006 2007 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 Single Family Residential (total) 1,088 557 1,032 2,677 1,130 561 743 2,434 1,191 574 962 2,727 Built in the last four years 71 23 22 116 97 20 24 141 95 24 45 164 Value <$200,000 9 1 0 10 4 0 0 4 4 0 3 7 Value>$200,000 62 22 22 106 91 20 24 135 90 24 42 156 Built at least 5 years ago 996 527 989 2,512 1,033 541 719 2,293 1,097 550 917 2,564 Value <$200,000 770 485 711 1,966 787 403 517 1,707 822 413 639 1,874 Value>$200,000 240 411 289 940 246 138 202 586 275 137 278 690 Duplex (total) 287 130 198 615 322 152 148 622 350 151 214 715 Multi-family (total) 344 136 168 648 330 135 138 603 378 126 195 699 Unknown (total) 0 23 12 130 12 1 384 477 0 8 15 41 All Housing Units 1,719 846 1,410 4,070 1,782 849 1,413 4,136 1,919 859 1,386 4,182 Housing Description West Bend Joint School District Students per Housing Unit by Type K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 Single Family Residential (total) 0.17 0.09 0.16 0.42 0.18 0.09 0.12 0.38 0.19 0.09 0.15 0.42 Built in the last four years 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.26 0.22 0.05 0.06 0.33 0.29 0.07 0.14 0.50 Value <$200,000 0.26 0.03 0.00 0.29 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.21 0.00 0.16 0.37 Value>$200,000 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.26 0.23 0.05 0.06 0.34 0.29 0.08 0.14 0.51 Built at least 5 years ago 0.17 0.09 0.17 0.42 0.17 0.09 0.12 0.38 0.18 0.09 0.15 0.42 Value <$200,000 0.17 0.10 0.15 0.42 0.17 0.09 0.11 0.36 0.18 0.09 0.14 0.40 Value>$200,000 0.19 0.33 0.23 0.75 0.19 0.10 0.15 0.45 0.19 0.10 0.20 0.49 Duplex (total) 0.24 0.16 0.24 0.51 0.25 0.19 0.18 0.49 0.27 0.19 0.26 0.55 Multi-family (total) 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.12 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.08 0.12 All Housing Units 0.13 0.07 0.11 0.31 0.13 0.06 0.11 0.31 0.14 0.06 0.10 0.31 TABLE 13 West Bend & Surrounding Towns and Villages: Students per Housing Unit Municipality 2005 2006 2007 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 T. Barton 0.31 0.09 0.07 0.14 0.27 0.10 0.07 0.10 0.28 0.09 0.06 0.13 V. Jackson 0.28 0.14 0.07 0.08 0.24 0.12 0.06 0.05 0.28 0.14 0.06 0.08 T. Jackson 0.17 0.07 0.03 0.07 0.15 0.07 0.03 0.05 0.15 0.07 0.04 0.05 V. Newburg 0.33 0.17 0.06 0.10 0.33 0.17 0.07 0.09 0.39 0.17 0.08 0.14 T. Trenton 0.34 0.12 0.07 0.15 0.33 0.13 0.08 0.12 0.35 0.12 0.08 0.15 T. West Bend 0.17 0.06 0.04 0.08 0.15 0.06 0.03 0.05 0.17 0.06 0.04 0.07 Total Country 0.28 0.11 0.06 0.11 0.28 0.11 0.06 0.11 0.28 0.11 0.06 0.10 Total City 0.31 0.13 0.07 0.11 0.31 0.13 0.06 0.11 0.31 0.14 0.06 0.10 Note: Ratios for some municipalities may be underestimated in 2005 and 2006 due to unknown addresses. Total Country ratios have been corrected for this problem. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 31

Figure 10 0.45 Students per Housing Unit, 2007 West Bend Joint School District Area C. West Bend 0.40 0.39 V. Jackson 0.35 0.30 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.35 V. Newburg T. Barton T. Jackson T. Trenton 0.25 T. West Bend 0.20 0.15 0.15 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.14 0.12 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.10 0.08 0.05 0.07 0.00 K-12 K-5 6-8 9-12 The highest student per housing unit ratios in Fall 2007 were found in the Village of Newburg and the Town of Trenton. Town of Trenton students are skewed toward the older ages, with particularly high ratios at the high school level. Village of Newburg students, on the other hand, and skewed toward the younger ages with particularly high ratios at the elementary level. Ratios in the Towns of Jackson and West Bend are considerably lower than other municipalities, because a considerable portion of their land mass falls outside the West Bend Joint School District boundaries. City of West Bend ratios are generally, higher than either those in the Village of Jackson or the Town of Barton. Still, for elementary age students, Village of Jackson ratios are high, suggesting that a shift toward more students living in the Villages of Jackson and Newburg and the City of West Bend (where elementary student per housing unit ratios are high) may be occurring. In sum, the majority of the students in the district live in single family homes. This trend is particularly strong for students in elementary school. Single family homes built within the last four years have been valued almost exclusively higher than $200,000. These homes see a higher ratio of elementary aged children compared to the other types. In the absence of out-migration and transfer into private schools, elementary aged children will be enrolled in the West Bend Joint School District for at least the next seven years. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 32

Newer development and higher home values in the City of West Bend are relatively evenly distributed across the different elementary attendance area boundaries (Decorah, Fair Park, Green Tree, and McLane), with somewhat less new development within the Fair Park attendance area. At the same time, two new large subdivisions are being developed in the Fair Park area (Creekside and River s Edge). Although of the city s original homes lay within the McLane Elementary area, this is balanced out by the newer development on the outskirts of the city that also falls in this attendance area boundary. Outside the city, new housing development has been clustered predominantly in the Village of Jackson, and to a lesser extent the Town of Jackson, and students living in these areas would attend Jackson Elementary. The Barton Elementary attendance area has less recent housing development and little expected in the near future this may potentially lead to enrollment declines for this elementary. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 33

Expected Future Housing Development The Applied Population Laboratory spoke with local officials, planners, and developers in the West Bend Joint School District area to get a sense of future housing development patterns for the next several years. The City of West Bend and the Village of Jackson stand out as expecting the most future housing growth, while the other municipalities associated with the West Bend Joint School District are expecting little to no growth in the coming years. The district area experienced rapid growth in housing development between 2000 and 2005, after which housing starts have slowed dramatically. This slowdown came before the current housing market crisis a crisis with which, every planner and developer was concerned. Planners and developers are attributing much of the slowdown including delays in starts, building fewer homes on spec, lowered sales prices, etc. to this current crisis. Still, few planners and clerks understand exactly how foreclosures are affecting their communities. Reporting foreclosures to planners and clerks is not required, so most do not have an accurate sense of how many foreclosures are occurring within their municipalities. The City of West Bend reported that currently the market is down and the subprime mortgage lending was cited as the cause. The planner reported that developers are not pushing homes right now, especially not multi-family units. However, there is little change in selling price and several subdivisions are approved and in the building process. Specific large subdivisions include Glacier Run, Glen Ivy, Prairie Meadow, Rainbow Lake, River s Edge, and Tuckaway. Glacier Run is a subdivision that will include 64 duplexes, 16 of which have already been built. Developers expect to finish this is 3 years, and expect that empty nesters will be the prime market. Glen Ivy has a total of 55 single family and 46 duplex units approved. Of these, only 11 single family homes and 28 duplexes have yet to be built. Prairie Meadow will include 139 single family units, 47 of which have not yet been built and should be completed in the next three years. Rainbow Lake is a large multi-family unit development that already has 72 units built. A total of 248 total units had been approved, but currently the plans for building the remaining units are on hold indefinitely. The first phase of the River s Edge subdivision will have 86 single-family units, 77 of which will be built over the next five years, and 14 duplex units, all of which have yet to be built. Tuckaway is another single-family subdivision with 19 lots still available. Overall, the City of West Bend is pursuing a slow and steady plan of growth. The city is intricately tied to Milwaukee s economy, as many people commute out of West Bend to work in or near Milwaukee. Many families choose to live in West Bend for the attractive housing values, property taxes, and quality of life. This indicates that these families create a market for schools. The Village of Jackson is the local municipality with the most vigorous recent and expected growth in the district area. While the market there too has slowed down, the planner reported that the market is starting to pick up again. Several large subdivisions have been approved and are in the building process; however, many developers are no longer putting out a lot of inventory up front. Rather, they wait for families to purchase lots before building. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 34

Specific large subdivisions in the Village of Jackson include Cranberry Creek, Stonewall Ridge, Laurel Springs, English Oaks, and Cobblestone. Cranberry Creek is a multi-phase development that will include an additional 67 single-family and 128 multi-family units to what has already been built. The singlefamily plats are lots where buyers build the homes themselves. The developers believe that the multifamily units will be completed in three years and the build-your-own-home subdivision will be completed in four to five years. Stonewall Ridge is a large subdivision that will include 200 units, 92 of which have yet to be built and should be completed over the next seven years. Laurel Springs is a two-phase project that will include 100 single family units. Building will commence soon. An aggressive and optimistic build out schedule for Laurel Springs is six years, but a worst case schedule is ten years. English Oaks is a subdivision that will include 32 single family units and 28 multi-family units. The developers believe it will take four years to complete. Cobblestone is a development that currently has 16 duplexes and will include 60 more. An optimistic schedule is three years, but the developers believe that four to five years is more likely. In sum, there are no limits on growth in the Village of Jackson and the political climate generally supports new developments. However, the Village is running out of land under the current boundary agreements with other towns. These agreements are in place until 2015 and 2020. Additionally, the area has recently added a new community building affiliated with the Boys and Girls Club. This could be attractive to young families. The five other major municipalities associated with the West Bend Joint School District (i.e., Town of Jackson, Town of Barton, Town of West Bend, Village of Newburg, and Town of Trenton) reported a strong downturn in their respective housing markets. None have plans for new subdivisions within their boundaries. The Town of Jackson reported that there are no plans for any new subdivisions and cited the current state of the economy as the influencing factor. The Town of Barton similarly reported no new housing developments within the last two years. The Town of West Bend reported no new housing developments and also reported that sales of existing homes has been slow. There is no moratorium on housing, but the Town is promoting cluster development, which requires larger lots and has the effect of discouraging growth. The Village of Newburg reported no new subdivisions and, more importantly, reported that the village is completely built out under current boundary agreements so no new subdivisions are expected in the future. The Town of Trenton has not had any subdivisions recently and is not expecting to have any in the next few years. Still, the clerk expects that the town will grow in the future. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 35

Like Figure 9-B, Figure 11 shows the area housing starts by type, but also includes expected future housing development. This represents our best estimate of future housing starts, up to 2012, based on our conversations with planners, clerks, and developers in the West Bend area. Figure 11 West Bend Joint School District Actual & Planned Housing Starts, by Type: 1998-2012 700 600 500 Housing Starts 400 300 200 100 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Single Family Two Family Multi-family While several projects have been approved and are in the building process in the City of West Bend and the Village of Jackson, developers seem cautious and are slowing the timeline for building projects because of the economy. For that reason, future housing starts are expected to be low for the next few years, and then to increase. Overall, the combination of a decline in housing starts in the last two years in the district area and the nationwide downturn in the housing market will likely keep housing starts relatively low for the next few years. Still, planners and developers seem confident that the housing market in the district will bounce back within the next few years. School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 36

TABLE 14 West Bend Joint School District Annual Expected Housing Development, 2008-2012 Expected Housing 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 C. West Bend (total) 92 100 135 150 165 SF homes 40 43 58 65 71 Duplex 24 26 35 39 43 Multi-family 29 31 42 47 51 V. Jackson (total) 45 70 85 85 85 SF homes 14 21 25 25 25 Two-or-more family 32 49 60 60 60 Other Housing 50 50 70 85 85 West Bend Area Total 325 390 509 554 584 Table 14 shows expected housing by type and location over the next five years. Table 15 and Map 11 offer details about large, newly developing subdivisions in the West Bend area. Table 15 provides an overview of planned housing units in each of these subdivisions. The Rainbow Lake Subdivision is currently on hold due to a slow-down in the housing market. Table 15 West Bend Joint School District Currently Developing Subdivisions with 50 or More Residential Units Subdivision Housing Units Total Approved Vacant Units SF Duplex MF SF Duplex MF Remaining Unit Build Out Plan City of West Bend Creekside (incl. Adds.) 114 6 44 8 years Glacier Run 64 48 3 years Glen Ivy 55 46 11 28 N/A Prairie Meadow 139 47 3 years Rainbow Lake 248 176 Indefinite Rivers Edge 86 14 77 14 5 years Tuckaway Subdivision (incl. Adds.) 70 19 N/A Village of Jackson Cranberry Creek 67 128 67 128 5 years English Oaks 32 28 32 28 4 years Laurel Springs 100 100 8 years Stonewall Ridge 200 108 7 years School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 37

Map 11 shows where these same subdivisions are located within the school district area, as well as where current students live. New subdivisions are being built on the outskirts of the City of West Bend and the outer edges of the Village of Jackson. Map 11: Subdivisions with 50 units or more in the West Bend Area, approved since 1990 School Enrollment Projection Series: West Bend Joint School District 38