Rural Economic Resiliency in Colorado A Study of Factors Impacting Resiliency June 2017 Project Team Colorado Research Team: University of Colorado Leeds School of Business Business Research Division Colorado Office of Economic Development and International Trade Colorado Department of Local Affairs State Demography Office The following organizations were instrumental in the support of this analysis: The Anschutz Foundation, El Pomar Foundation, Gates Family Foundation, and Telluride Foundation National Employment Thousands, Month-over- Month 500 300 100-100 -300-500 -700 Recession 8 Months -900 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), National Bureau of Economic Research, Moody s Analytics, and the BRD. Recession 18 Months 1
Employment Recovery 10-Year Growth, May 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Employment Recovery 1-Year Growth, May 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted). Employment Growth Colorado Year-over-Year Change Year-over-Year Growth 62% of rural counties 76% of urban counties 22 still in decline Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. 2
Rural Colorado Covered Employment Jobs 350,000 300,000 Employment up 67 consecutive months. -2.8% 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. Rural Colorado Covered Wages Annual (4Q Rolling) $ Millions $14,000 $12,000 Year-over-Year +1.9% $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. Colorado Average Wages Annual Rate (4Q), Nominal Average Wage (Dollars) $60,000 Urban $56,600 $50,000 $40,000 Rural $39,900 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2001 2003 2004 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW. 3
Resiliency Project: Data and Economic Metrics Nonmetro County Population Growth Average Annual Growth, 1990 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties. Nonmetro County Employment Growth Average Annual Growth, 1990 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Gray shading represents metropolitan counties. 4
350 300 250 200 150 100 Total Employment Indexed Growth, 1969-2015 Indexed, 1969=100 400 Recessions 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research. Colorado Urban Colorado Rural U.S. Rural 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Total Employment Rural Colorado Counties Employment 600,000 500,000 400,000 Recessions 300,000 200,000 100,000 Rural Proprietor Employment 32% Urban Proprietor Employment 24% 0 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Economic Research. Employment Growth and Assets Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, COGCC, Energy Information Administration, Colorado Department of Transportation, Colorado Department of Higher Education, Colorado Ski Country USA. 5
Percentage of Population over age 25 with HS Diploma or Equivalent Percentage of Population over age 25 with Less than HS Diploma Education and Employment Growth Colorado Rural Counties High School Diploma 10 95% 9 85% 8 75% -1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2015 Less than High School Diploma 25% 2 15% 1 5% Percentage of Population over age 25 with Bachelor's Degree or Higher Bachelor s Degree or Higher 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% -1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2015 Graduate Degree 24% 2 16% 12% 8% 4% -1% -1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Ave. Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2015 Ave. Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2015 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Percentage of Population over age 25 with Graduate Degree Labor Force and Unemployment Rate National by Educational Attainment, Population 25 and Over, 2016 Percentage 80 70 60 50 LFPR 40 30 20 10 Unemployment Rate 0 Less than a high school diploma High school graduates Some college, no degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Advanced degree Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), Seasonally Adjusted. Education, Employment, and Earnings 2016 Unemployment Rate Median Weekly Earnings 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 2.7% Doctoral degree Professional degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree 1,664 $1,745 $1,380 $1,156 5.2% 3.6% 4.4% Associate's degree Some college, no degree High school diploma $819 $756 $692 7.4% Less than a high school diploma $504 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers. 6
Employment and Prime Working Age Pop Colorado Rural Counties 5% 4% Average Annual Employment Growth 3% 2% 1% 35% 4 45% 5 55% 6-1% Prime Working Age Population Share Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Agriculture 5% Average Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2015 4% 3% 2% 1% 1 2 3 4 5 6-1% Agriculture Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN. Share of Value Added Colorado Total Employment Growth and Private Services 5% Average Annual Employment Growth, 1990-2014 4% 3% 2% 1% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-1% Private Services Share of Value Added, 2014 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IMPLAN. 7
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index By State 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Alaska Hawaii Nevada New Mexico West Virginia Mississippi Virginia Louisiana Wyoming Maryland South Carolina Alabama Delaware Indiana Maine Vermont Wisconsin North Carolina South Dakota Arkansas Kentucky Michigan New Hampshire Oklahoma Massachusetts Montana Rhode Island Washington Ohio Kansas Iowa Connecticut Arizona New York Idaho Florida Pennsylvania New Jersey Tennessee Missouri North Dakota Georgia Minnesota Nebraska Oregon Colorado Illinois Utah California Texas Source: Calculations based on data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Focus Groups Helping Resiliency Demographics Industry diversity Strong leadership Education and healthcare Transportation access Quality of life Broadband Leadership Inhibitors Adequate, affordable housing Lack of available labor Youth and family retention Childcare Case Studies: Salida and Durango To gain a better understanding of the perceived drivers of economic resiliency in a rural community, the research team performed in-depth studies. Various community leaders and key stakeholders were interviewed. During the process, the research team delved deeper into the previously identified drivers of and hindrances to resiliency in a community. Drivers and Challenges to Resiliency 8
Case Study: Drivers of Resiliency Quality of Life Education & Health Care Community Leadership Industry Diversity Transportation Case Study: Hurdles' to Resiliency Housing Availability & Supply Labor Market Youth & Family Retention Smart Growth Observations & Economic Resiliency Guide Vision Your Community: Create a development plan with buy-in and input from the community. Think creatively and be authentic to your community s personality when creating a vision for your community. Invest in Community Assets: Identify community assets ideal for community placemaking. Seize Opportunities and Take Risks: Develop and foster a culture of commitment, seizing opportunities, building businesses and community assets and diversifying your community s industries. Take risks and invest in your community and businesses. 9
Observations & Economic Resiliency Guide cont d Invest in Education and Healthcare Consider education and healthcare as a tool for family and labor retention and attraction and invest accordingly. Infill/Density and Annexation Options Inventory annexation options and evaluate infill and annexation policies. Collaborate and Work Regionally Pool resources and build capacity by working regionally. Empower and Engender Leaders Champion current leaders, making them ambassadors for your community. Develop young professional leadership programs to encourage and support the next generation of leaders. Thank you and Q&A Brian Lewandowski brian.lewandowski@colorado.edu Laura Blomquist Rodriguez laura.blomquist@state.co.us 10