Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing September 7, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 1-97-73 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana --1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

1 Figure 1. US REAL GDP GROWTH & % "STALL SPEED" 1 1 1 Q - 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Dotted line is % "stall speed." Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Figure. US GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN REAL GDP* 1 1 1 Q - 9 1 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 - * Includes federal, state, and local government spending on goods and services. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 3 / September 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

Figure 3. REAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) Current data updated thru: Q-17 3 9 (-.) 1 (1.) 1991 (7.) 19 (3.9) 197 (1.3) 197 (.) 191 (3.) 3 1 1 9-1 III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. -1 Figure. US REAL GDP & NONFARM BUSINESS OUTPUT Q - Real Nonfarm Business Output (.) Real GDP (.) - - - - - - 7 9 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. - Page / September 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

Figure. REAL NONFARM BUSINESS OUTPUT (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) Current data updated thru: Q-17 9 (3.) 1 (1.7) 1991 (.9) 19 (1.1) 197 (7.) 197 (.) 191 (.) 3 3 9 1 1 III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1 Figure. REAL GDP & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1 1 CEI (1.9) Real GDP (.) 1 - - -1 9 1 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 1-1 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Conference Board. Page / September 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

1 13 1 Figure 7. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (1=1, sa, ratio scale) 1 13 1 11 11 1 1 9 9 7 7 LEI CEI 3 9 1 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 1 3 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board. Figure. PRODUCTIVITY: NONFARM BUSINESS (-quarter percent change, annual rate) Q 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / September 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

Figure 9. PRODUCTIVITY & REAL GDP: NONFARM BUSINESS Q - - - - - - - - - - - - -1 Real NFB Output (.) Real GDP (.) 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 Q Real NFB Output (.) Productivity (1.3) 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 Q Real NFB Output (.) Hours Worked (1.) 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics. - - - - - - - - - - - - -1 Page 7 / September 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

Figure 1. NONFARM BUSINESS: HOURS WORKED (-quarter percent change, annual rate) 3 3 Q 1 1-1 -1-7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3. Figure 11. WORKING-AGE POPULATION (1-month percent change, annual rate) 1/* 1/** 3..... 1. 1. 1. 1.. Total (1.) 1- Year Olds (.).. 7 9 1 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 1. * Youngest Baby Boomers turned 1 years old. ** Oldest Baby Boomers turned years old. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page / September 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

7 Figure 1. REAL POTENTIAL OUTPUT 7 3 3 Q 1 1 1 3 7 9 1 3 7 9 71 73 7 77 79 1 3 7 9 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 1 3 7 9 31 Source: Congressional Budget Office. 1 Figure 13. REAL GDP (-quarter percent change) 1 Latest (.) Q 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 1 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Page 9 / September 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

1 1 Figure 1. ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX (=1, sa) 1 1 1 13 13 Monthly 1-ma 1 13 13 1 1 1 1 11 11 11 11 1 1 1 9 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 Source: American Trucking Association. 1 9 1 Figure 1. WEST COAST PORTS CONTAINER TRAFFIC (TEUs, thousands, 1-month sum) 1 Inbound* (37.) Outbound* (339.) 9 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 * Sum of Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach Loaded Continers. Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Page 1 / September 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

1 Figure 1. WEST COAST PORTS CONTAINER TRAFFIC* & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS 3 1 Outbound Plus Inbound (TEUs, millions, 1-month sum) 1 Railcar Loadings: Intermodal (thousand units, -wa) 1 9 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 1 * Sum of Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach Loaded Containers. TEUs=-foot equivalent units. Source: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and Atlantic Systems. 3 Figure 17. RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES 3 1 9/1 1 1 9 91 9 93 9 9 9 97 9 99 1 3 7 9 1 11 1 13 1 1 1 17 1 19 Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics. Motor Vehicles Loadings (thousand units, -wa) Sales (million units, saar) 1 Page 11 / September 7, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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