The High Costs for Out of School and Jobless Youth in Chicago and Cook County Produced for: Alternative Schools Network June 12, 2017 Great Cities Institute University of Illinois at Chicago Great Cities Institute (MC 107), 412 South Peoria Street, Suite 400, Chicago, Illinois 60607-7067 Phone (312) 996-8700 Fax (312) 996-8933 greatcities.uic.edu gcities@uic.edu
Produced for Alternative Schools Network asnchicago.org info@asnchicago.org Authors Teresa L. Córdova, Ph.D. Director and Professor tcordova@uic.edu Matthew D. Wilson Economic Development Planner mwilso25@uic.edu Research Assistant Shubhayan Ukil Acknowledgements Timothy O. Imeokparia, Ph.D., AICP Jackson C. Morsey v1.5
Table of Contents i 1 4 9 19 27 48 I III XII XIII XV Executive Summary Full Report Introduction Lower Educational Attainment, Lower Revenues Employment to Population Ratios for Teens and Young Adults from 1960 to 2015 Out of School and Out of Work Rates for Teens and Young Adults from 1960 to 2015 Spatial Distributions of Joblessness, Out of School and Out of Work Rates, Jobs, and Job Access Conclusion Appendix Appendix A: Definitions, Data Sources and Methodology Appendix B: Illinois and U.S. Data Appendix C: Great Cities Institute Reports on Youth Joblessness Appendix D: Out of School and Out of Work By PUMA Appendix E: Out of Work and Out of School and Out of Work in Cook County, 2014 and 2015
Executive Summary This report, The High Costs for Out of School and Jobless Youth in Chicago and Cook County, is the fourth report produced by UIC s Great Cities Institute (GCI) for the Alternative Schools Network (ASN). This latest report from UIC s Great Cities Institute updates data on youth joblessness for Cook County from its 2016 report; 1 compiles and calculates longitudinal employment data dating back to 1960; identifies the location of jobs within Cook County in 2014; maps the number of jobs accessible via public transit to people living in Chicago s Community Areas in 2014; and calculates individuals net fiscal contribution on the tax base, by levels of educational attainment. The analysis contained in this report was driven by the following questions: Are there impacts on the tax base associated with individuals who drop out of high school that can be measured in lost tax revenues? If we look at long-term patterns of joblessness in Cook County (from 1960-2015), how do the trends compare across groups and to trends in Chicago over the same time periods? How do conditions of joblessness in Cook County compare to those in Chicago, Illinois and the U.S.? Where are jobs located within Cook County? If within Chicago the jobs are concentrated in the loop, how easily accessible via public transportation are those jobs to those residents living outside the loop? What we learned: Education Makes a Difference: There is a connection between educational attainment and unemployment and educational attainment and earnings: more educated individuals earn more and are less likely to be unemployed. High Cost to Tax Base: In addition to costs to individuals and households that experience joblessness, there are fiscal impacts associated with those that drop out of high school that can be measured in lost tax revenues. In Illinois, the difference between the amount of taxes paid over 45 years between an individual without a high school diploma and with a high school diploma is $197,055 meaning that someone without a high school diploma will contribute $197,055 fewer dollars to the tax base. Over a lifetime of work (45 years), those with a Master s Degree will contribute over $1,000,000 to the tax base. Large Numbers in Cook County of 16 to 24 year olds Out of School, Out of Work, with No High School Diploma: In Cook County, 16 to 19 year olds and 20 to 24 year olds that were out of school and out of work and did not have a high school diploma amounts to 21,518 (6,551 16 to 19 year olds and 14,967 20 to 24 year). City and County Have Remarkably Similar Out of School and Out of Work Rates: While there is some variation between groups at various points in time, since 1960, out of school and out of work rates in Chicago and Cook County follow similar trend lines. Joblessness Made Worse by the 2008 Recession: While joblessness is chronic and concentrated for Black and Latino youth, conditions were made worse by the recession, in both Chicago and Cook County, and no group has returned to pre-recession employment levels. While whites and blacks have showed some upward movements, employment levels of Latinos continue to drop. 1 UIC Great Cities Institute (March 2016). A Lost Generation: The Disappearance of Teens and Young Adults from the Job Market in Cook County i
Job Concentration: There is a concentration of jobs in the Chicago Loop and Northwest Suburbs. Jobs Not Accessible: Community Areas in Chicago with high rates of joblessness are the same ones that have the fewest number of jobs accessible within walking distance or a 30-minute commute time on public transit. In what follows, the relevant data supporting each point is illustrated with charts, tables, figures and maps: Education Makes a Difference: There is a connection between educational attainment and unemployment and educational attainment and earnings: more educated individuals earn more and are less likely to be unemployed High Cost to Tax Base: In addition to costs to individuals and households that experience joblessness, there are fiscal impacts associated with those that drop out of high school that can be measured in lost tax revenues. In Illinois, the difference between the amount of taxes paid over 45 years between an individual without a high school diploma and with a high school diploma is $197,055 meaning that someone without a high school diploma will contribute $197,055 fewer dollars to the tax base. ii
Over a lifetime of work (45 years), those with a Master s Degree will contribute over $1,000,000 to the tax base. Table 4: Average Annual Taxes Paid and Taxes Paid over 45 Years in Illinois by Educational Attainment, 2016 Educational Attainment Yearly Taxes Paid Taxes Paid over 45 Years Below high school, no high school diploma $989 $44,505 High school diploma or equivalent $5,368 $241,560 Some college, no degree $8,424 $379,080 Associates degree $9,303 $418,635 Bachelor s $18,228 $820,260 Master s or Higher $26,084 $1,173,780 Large Numbers in Cook County of 16 to 24 year olds Out of School, Out of Work, with No High School Diploma: In Cook County, 16 to 19 year olds and 20 to 24 year olds that were out of school and out of work and did not have a high school diploma amounts to 21,518 (6,551 16 to 19 year olds and 14,967 20 to 24 year). Table 6: Percent and Number of the 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 Year Olds Out of School and Out of Work Population without a High School Diploma by Race/Ethnicity in Chicago, Cook County, Illinois, and the U.S., 2015 Chicago, IL Cook County, IL Illinois U.S. White (non-hispanic or Latino) 27.7% 30.8% 34.5% 37.7% n 430 1,274 6,262 196,680 Black (non-hispanic or Latino) 32.8% 34.6% 41.9% 36.5% 16-19 n 1,991 2,769 4,329 92,194 Hispanic or Latino 27.7% 33.9% 33.7% 41.0% n 1,100 2,327 3,535 132,738 Total Population (Including all other groups) 30.7% 33.5% 36.8% 38.3% n 3,623 6,551 14,806 458,271 White (non-hispanic or Latino) 29.2% 18.6% 19.7% 19.6% n 1,158 2,021 11,520 323,551 Black (non-hispanic or Latino) 26.5% 24.3% 27.2% 24.5% 20-24 n 7,299 8,482 14,623 203,974 Hispanic or Latino 15.8% 18.9% 19.5% 28.8% n 2,137 3,740 5,897 260,541 Total Population (Including all other groups) 23.5% 21.2% 22.1% 23.0% n 11,000 14,967 33,302 847,807 iii
City and County Have Remarkably Similar Out of School and Out of Work Rates: While there is some variation between groups at various points in time, since 1960, out of school and out of work rates in Chicago and Cook County follow similar trend lines. Joblessness Made Worse by the 2008 Recession: While joblessness is chronic and concentrated for Black and Latino youth, conditions were made worse by the recession, in both Chicago and Cook County, and no group has returned to pre-recession employment levels. While whites and blacks have showed some upward movements, employment levels of Latinos continue to drop. iv
Job Concentration: There is a concentration of jobs in the Chicago Loop and Northwest Suburbs. Map 10: Number of Jobs in Cook County by Census Place and Chicago Community Area, 2014 2.1 Chicago 59.1 3.7 Cook County 10.5 Number of Jobs by Census Place and Chicago Community Area (in Thousands) 0-5.0 5.1-20.0 20.1-50.0 50.1-150.0 150.1-408.3 2.5 17.3 17.3 2.1 22.4 3.1 38.1 0.9 2.4 25.1 8.8 3.9 7.2 2.1 48.1 33.8 0.6 20.1 7.5 23.7 24.6 0.1 9 47.2 42.6 35.5 21.8 8.1 93.2 18.7 56.1 22.3 2.8 9.7 12.3 12.3 7.2 22.3 14.6 5.2 10.4 5.8 6.8 52.1 5.8 5.2 23.6 10.2 13 7 2.8 5.3 13.8 Lake 21.5 7.7 52.1 8.6 11.2 10.4 Michigan 7.6 23.8 11.5 16.1 3.3 12.3 2.9 3.7 16.7 31.4 7.9 2.5 30.7 1.4 20.2 9.8 40.9 163.9 1.9 4.4 18.8 19 3.9 11.8 4.2 3.5 6.5 138.2 408.3 7.1 15.8 6.1 17 16.5 5.9 8.9 4.9 12 16.3 42.2 12.1 1313.9 6.8 2.9 1.5 4.1 2.4 4.8 5.2 0.3 3.2 8.1 1 10 11 4.4 1.3 10.4 2.2 7.2 13 2 4.8 0.5 27 3.9 0.6 7.3 4 3.8 3.8 1.6 1.9 2.1 31 6.3 3.9 4.2 13.6 11.7 1.3 5.5 5.5 2.7 3.2 6.9 12.5 4.2 2.9 0.4 3.8 8.3 1.8 2.3 23.3 3.4 2.3 9.6 3.8 2.7 1.6 5.9 3.4 2.6 3.4 6.7 0.7 7 1.3 1.3 8.7 15 1 1.3 7.8 1.3 7 1.3 1.2 2.6 13.7 7 8.5 0.5 1.6 3.3 0.6 0.8 2 1.1 13.7 4.5 25.4 6.4 10.2 0.3 8.3 3.7 11.6 5 1.3 4.4 0.8 1.6 8.6 20.4 1.7 8.3 23.9 13.7 0.7 8.8 8.6 2.2 5 2.9 3 5.2 12.6 1.6 1.2 1.3 2.8 1.9 0.9 2.9 2.9 0 0 5 10 20 Miles Map Created by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago Data Source: 2014 Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD). U.S. Census Bureau. 2.8 v
Jobs Not Accessible: Community Areas in Chicago with high rates of joblessness are the same ones that have the fewest number of jobs accessible within walking distance or a 30-minute commute time on public transit. Map 11: Number of Jobs Accessible via 30 minutes on Public Transit in Chicago by Chicago Community Areas, 2014 29,837 39,751 61,569 29,299 19,059 31,298 41,471 38,760 67,998 68,509 19,059 51,445 117,070 31,081 46,962 71,013 115,387 103,361 313,439 34,795 44,563 45,256 265,015 517,082 59,207 80,607 502,191 696,284 Lake Michigan Number of Jobs Accessible via 30 minutes on Public Transit in Chicago, 2014 2,700-50,000 50,001-100,000 100,001-200,000 200,001-300,000 147,620 322,083 738,426 548,417 73,341 466,282 280,027 451,490 57,949 252,097 274,748 252,311 57,949 69,877 68,401 199,354 38,349 60,079 88,908 298,745 300,001-738,426 25,727 39,630 41,523 124,468 60,882 25,338 35,300 24,434 21,687 68,147 65,607 49,533 28,680 25,970 19,516 30,750 22,795 15,596 18,274 16,235 18,259 19,881 15,030 10,833 4,716 16,884 14,273 7,678 7,678 8,733 2,701 0 2.5 5 10 Miles Map Created by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago Data Source: Owen, Andrew; Levinson, David M. (2014). Access Across America: Transit 2014 Data. Retrieved from the Data Repository for the University of Minnesota. 2,701 3,213 3,213 vi
Therefore: Joblessness continues to be a pressing problem with severe consequences for young people, their households, and their communities. High numbers of young people who are out of school, out of work and with no diploma multiplies the economic and social costs from wages lost associated with low educational attainment. Investments in keeping young people in school to complete their high school diploma and enhancing pathways to complete their professional or master s degree education, pay off in returns to the tax base of upwards of a million dollars. There is too much concentration of jobs within certain locations in the region and too little geographic distribution of employment opportunities, made worse by the limits of access through public transit options. Conclusion To address the issue in a serious way requires a thorough analysis of the different components of the problem of youth unemployment. For policy purposes, the analysis should focus on the underlying factors that results in the chronic and persistent nature of the problem. This report focuses on the correlation between educational attainment and unemployment, educational attainment and wages, joblessness, and subsequent contribution to the tax base. There is a need to develop substantive policy solutions that addresses these underlying factors. This report is meant to spur conversations on policy options. For example, the need to: 1. Develop relevant education and training programs that prepares teens and young adults to participate in the new economy. 2. Develop policies to address the geographic mismatch between the location of jobs and where the most chronically unemployed populations live. 3. Address the disparate impacts on race/ethnic groups of the changing economy. For instance, trying to understand why Latinos have not rebounded from the Great Recession of 2007-2009 like other racial/ethnic groups. This would require a deeper analysis of the participation of Latinos in different sectors of the economy linked to educational attainment and their geographic location within Cook County. vii
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The High Costs for Out of School and Jobless Youth in Chicago and Cook County Produced for: Alternative Schools Network June 12, 2017 Great Cities Institute University of Illinois at Chicago
Introduction This report, The High Costs for Out of School and Jobless Youth in Chicago and Cook County, is the fourth report produced by UIC s Great Cities Institute (GCI) for the Alternative Schools Network (ASN). This series of reports on youth joblessness by the Great Cities Institute (GCI) at the University of Illinois at Chicago (See Appendix C), has drawn attention to the chronic, concentrated, and comparatively worse characteristics of joblessness in Chicago among young people ages 16-24. It was particularly alarming, that in 2014, nearly 50% of Black men between the ages 20-24 were out of school and out of work. 2 The total number of 16-24 year olds in Chicago that were out of school and out of work in 2015 was 58,565 or nearly 60,000. 3 The figures could not be ignored, and since then, a number of initiatives that supplement ongoing efforts have emerged to address youth joblessness including The Emerson Collective and Thrive Chicago. In its January 2016 report, GCI noted that the neighborhoods with the highest rates of violence were also neighborhoods with high rates of joblessness. While we cannot say that joblessness was the trigger for the recent surge in Chicago s violence, we can agree with young people themselves, that there is relationship between the conditions that youth joblessness creates and an array of impacts, including violence. Our reports supplement the voices of young people who, for the last several years, have testified at Hearings at the Chicago Urban League sponsored by the Alternative Schools Network and an array of other community groups on the ground. 4 We learn from them that they want to work, that having a job has a huge positive impact on their lives, but that multiple obstacles make getting a job difficult. Among the impediments to finding employment, especially for young Black men and women, is that the jobs have left their neighborhoods. In the January 2017 report, Abandoned in their Neighborhoods: Youth Joblessness Amidst the Flight of Industry and Opportunity, GCI created maps looking at data from1970 and from 2015. The maps starkly demonstrate the emptying out of jobs from neighborhoods - both manufacturing and retail, in areas where not surprisingly, there are high concentrations of youth joblessness and high concentrations of Blacks and to a large extent Latinos. With job flight, has come the flight of capital and the long-term impact on many of Chicago s west and south side neighborhoods. It is why we have continued to assert in this series of reports that, Youth employment rates are tied to conditions in neighborhoods and cannot be seen as distinct from what is happening in the neighborhoods themselves. The devastation of unemployment in turn, wreaks havoc on the neighborhoods. 5 Given these conditions, the question continues to be, what to do about it. Each of our reports offers strategies for consideration. This report further elucidates the conditions and impacts of joblessness. In this report, The High Costs for Out of 2 UIC Great Cities Institute (January 2016) Lost: The Crisis of Jobless and Out of School Teens and Young Adults in Chicago, Illinois and the U.S. Produced for Alternative Schools Network, p. 10 3 UIC Great Cities Institute (January 2017). Abandoned in their Neighborhoods: Youth Joblessness amidst the Flight of Industry and Opportunity. Produced for Alternative Schools Network, Appendix B Table B3, p. III 4 Some of those organizations include Alternative Schools Network, The Chicago Urban League, Chicago Area Project, Youth Connection Charter School, National Youth Advocate Program, Westside Health Authority, Black United Fund of Illinois, National Youth Advocate Program, La Casa Norte, Lawrence Hall, Mount Sinai Medical Center, Heartland Alliance, and Metropolitan Family Services. 5 UIC Great Cities Institute (January 2016) Lost: The Crisis of Jobless and Out of School Teens and Young Adults in Chicago, Illinois and the U.S. Produced for Alternative Schools Network, p. 19. 1
School and Jobless Youth in Chicago and Cook County, GCI updates data on youth joblessness for Cook County from its 2016 report; 6 compiles and compares longitudinal employment data dating back to 1960; identifies location of jobs within Cook County in 2014; maps the number of jobs accessible via public transit to people living in Chicago s community areas; and calculates net fiscal impact based on levels of educational attainment. The analysis contained in this report was driven by the following questions: Are there fiscal impacts associated with individuals who drop out of high school that can be measured in lost tax revenues? If we look at long-term patterns of joblessness in Cook County (from 1960-2015), how do the trends compare across groups and to trends in Chicago over the same time periods? How do conditions of joblessness in Cook County compare to those in Chicago, Illinois and the U.S.? Where are jobs located within Cook County? If within Chicago the jobs are concentrated in the loop, how easily accessible via public transportation are those jobs to those residents living outside the loop? What we learned: Education Makes a Difference: There is a connection between educational attainment and unemployment and educational attainment and earnings: more educated individuals earn more and are less likely to be unemployed High Cost to Tax Base: In addition to costs to individuals and households that experience joblessness, there are fiscal impacts associated with those that drop out of high school that can be measured in lost tax revenues. Large Numbers in Cook County of 16 to 24 year olds Out of School, Out of Work, with No High School Diploma: In Cook County, 16 to 19 year olds and 20 to 24 year olds that were out of school and out of work and did not have a high school diploma amounts to 21,518 (6,551 16 to 19 year olds and 14,967 20 to 24 year). City and County Have Remarkably Similar Out of School and Out of Work Rates: While there is some variation between groups at various points in time, since 1960, out of school and out of work rates in Chicago and Cook County follow similar trend lines. Joblessness Made Worse by the 2008 Recession: While joblessness is chronic and concentrated for Black and Latino youth, conditions were made worse by the recession, in both Chicago and Cook County, and no group has returned to pre-recession employment levels. While whites and blacks have showed some upward movements, employment levels of Latinos continue to drop. Job Concentration: There is a concentration of jobs in the Chicago Loop and Northwest Suburbs. Jobs Not Accessible: Community Areas in Chicago with high rates of joblessness are the same ones that have the fewest number of jobs accessible within walking distance or a 30-minute commute time on public transit. Therefore: Joblessness continues to be a pressing problem with severe consequences for young people, their households, and their communities. High numbers of young people who are out of school, out of work and with no diploma 6 UIC Great Cities Institute (March 2016). A Lost Generation: The Disappearance of Teens and Young Adults from the Job Market in Cook County 2
multiplies the economic and social costs from wages lost associated with low educational attainment. Investments in keeping young people in school to complete their high school diploma and enhancing pathways to complete their professional or master s degree education, pay off in returns to the tax base of upwards of a million dollars. There is too much concentration of jobs within certain locations in the region and too little geographic distribution of employment opportunities, made worse by the limits of access through public transit options. 3
Lower Educational Attainment, Lower Revenues The connections between educational attainment and unemployment and educational attainment and earnings are clear: more educated individuals earn more and are less likely to be unemployed. Figure 1 shows the unemployment rate by highest level of education for the population 25 and over in the U.S. in 2016. The unemployment rate for those without a high school diploma was 7.4 percent while those who finished high school had an unemployment rate of 5.2 percent. Unemployment rate goes down as individuals become more educated, with those with some college and no degree having an unemployment rate of 4.4 percent, Associates degree 3.6 percent, Bachelor s degree 2.7 percent, Master s degree 2.4 percent, and both Professional and Doctoral degrees 1.6 percent. Data Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics In addition to being less likely to be unemployed, earnings increase as individuals attain higher levels of education. Figure 2 shows median usual weekly earning for full time workers by their highest level of education attainment for the population 25 and over in the U.S. in 2016. Examining usual weekly earnings in the U.S. shows that those with education less than a high school diploma had median earnings of $504, while those with a high school diploma earned $692, some college no degree earned $756, Associate s degree earned $819, Bachelor s degree earned $1,156, master s degree earned $1,380, Professional degree earned $1,745, and Doctoral degree earned $1,664. Data Source: Current Population Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 4
In a U.S. economy where high levels of educational attainment are tied to obtaining higher income jobs, and lower levels of unemployment, the amounts that individuals pay in taxes i.e., the amount of funds they contribute to the public coffers differs greatly based on individuals educational attainment. To quantify the amount of taxes individuals pay based on their educational attainment, this report calculated average annual taxes paid by the tax categories shown in Table 1. Table 1: Taxes Paid Federal income tax liability, after all credits State income tax liability, after all credits Federal retirement payroll deduction Social security retirement payroll deduction Data Source: Categories of taxes paid are from 2016 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey (CPS), U.S. Census Bureau. Tables 2 and 3 show the average annual taxes paid in Illinois and the U.S. by educational attainment in 2016. In Illinois (see Table 2), an individual without a high school diploma on average contribute $989 in taxes while those with a high school diploma or equivalent on average contribute $5,368, those with some college no degree contribute an average of $8,424, those with an associated degree on average contribute $9,303, those with a bachelor s degree on average contribute $18,228, and those with a Master s degree or higher contribute $26,084. In the U.S. (see Table 3), the amount of tax payments were similar to Illinois: individuals below a high school diploma on average contribute $1,318 in taxes while those with a high school diploma or equivalent contribute $5,342, those with some college no degree contribute an average of $6,478, those with an associated degree on average contribute $9,287, those with a bachelor s degree on average contribute $15,987, and those with a Master s degree or higher contribute $24,595. Table 2: Average Annual Taxes Paid in Illinois by Educational Attainment, 2016 Educational Attainment Taxes Paid Below High School, no High School Diploma $989 High School Diploma or Equivalent $5,368 Some College, no Degree $8,424 Associates Degree $9,303 Bachelor s Degree $18,228 Master s Degree or Higher $26,084 Data Source: 2016 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey (CPS), U.S. Census Bureau, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. 5
Table 3: Average Annual Taxes Paid in the U.S. by Educational Attainment, 2016 Educational Attainment Taxes Paid Below High School, no High School Diploma $1,318 High School Diploma or Equivalent $5,342 Some College, no Degree $6,478 Associates Degree $9,287 Bachelor s Degree $15,987 Master s Degree or Higher $24,595 Data Source: 2016 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey (CPS), U.S. Census Bureau, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. These yearly amounts of taxes contributed calculated over a longer period of time compound to a larger benefit to the public. Calculating the impact over a 45 year span (the typical amount of years in the labor force), Tables 4 and 5 show the yearly taxes paid and taxes paid projected for 45 years in Illinois and the U.S.. In Illinois, the difference between the amount of taxes paid over 45 years between an individual without a high school diploma and with a high school diploma is $197,055 meaning that someone without a high school diploma will contribute $197,055 fewer dollars to the tax base. In the U.S. (see Table 5), an individual without a high school diploma will contribute $181,080 fewer dollars to the tax base. Table 4: Average Annual Taxes Paid and Taxes Paid over 45 Years in Illinois by Educational Attainment, 2016 Educational Attainment Yearly Taxes Paid Taxes Paid over 45 Years Below high school, no high school diploma $989 $44,505 High school diploma or equivalent $5,368 $241,560 Some college, no degree $8,424 $379,080 Associates degree $9,303 $418,635 Bachelor s $18,228 $820,260 Master s or Higher $26,084 $1,173,780 Data Source: 2011, 2015, and 2016 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey (CPS), U.S. Census Bureau, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. 6
Table 5: Average Annual Taxes Paid and Taxes Paid over 45 Years in the U.S. by Educational Attainment, 2016 Educational Attainment Yearly Taxes Paid Taxes Paid over 45 Years Below high school, no high school diploma $1,318 $59,310 High school diploma or equivalent $5,342 $240,390 Some college, no degree $6,478 $291,510 Associates degree $9,287 $417,915 Bachelor s $15,987 $719,415 Master s or Higher $24,595 $1,106,775 Data Source: 2011, 2015, and 2016 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) of the Current Population Survey (CPS), U.S. Census Bureau, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. The percent and number of out of work and out of school 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 year olds with no high school diploma are at risk of not securing the education needed to find gainful employment and have the potential to contribute more dollars to the tax base. Table 6 shows the percent of the 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 year old out of school and out of work population that did not have a high school diploma in 2015. In Cook County, 6,551 16 to 19 year olds and 14,967 20 to 24 year olds were out of school and out of work and did not have a high school diploma. This amounts to 21,518 16 to 24 year olds. Of the out of school and out of work 16 to 19 year old population, the U.S. had the highest percentage of each White (37.7 percent) and Hispanic or Latino (41 percent)16 to 19 year olds without a high school diploma while Illinois (41.9 percent) had the highest percentage of Black 16 to 19 year olds. Of the out of school and out of work 20 to 24 year old population, Chicago had the highest percentage of Whites (29.2 percent) without a diploma while Illinois had the highest percentage of Blacks (27.2 percent) and the U.S. had the highest percentage of Hispanic or Latinos (28.8 percent). 7
16-19 20-24 Table 6: Percent and Number of the 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 Year Olds Out of School and Out of Work Population without a High School Diploma by Race/Ethnicity in Chicago, Cook County, Illinois, and the U.S., 2015 White (non-hispanic or Latino) Chicago, IL Cook County, IL Illinois U.S. 27.7% 30.8% 34.5% 37.7% n 430 1,274 6,262 196,680 Black (non-hispanic or Latino) 32.8% 34.6% 41.9% 36.5% n 1,991 2,769 4,329 92,194 Hispanic or Latino 27.7% 33.9% 33.7% 41.0% n 1,100 2,327 3,535 132,738 Total Population (Including all other groups) 30.7% 33.5% 36.8% 38.3% n 3,623 6,551 14,806 458,271 White (non-hispanic or Latino) 29.2% 18.6% 19.7% 19.6% n 1,158 2,021 11,520 323,551 Black (non-hispanic or Latino) 26.5% 24.3% 27.2% 24.5% n 7,299 8,482 14,623 203,974 Hispanic or Latino 15.8% 18.9% 19.5% 28.8% n 2,137 3,740 5,897 260,541 Total Population (Including all other groups) 23.5% 21.2% 22.1% 23.0% n 11,000 14,967 33,302 847,807 Data Source: 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. 8
Employment to Population Ratios for Teens and Young Adults from 1960 to 2015 This section provides employment to population ratios for 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 year olds by race/ethnicity and gender from 1960 to 2015 to illustrate the changing employment conditions faced by teens and young adults. Figures 3 and 4 show employment to population ratios for 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 year olds in Cook County and Chicago from 1960 to 2015. 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 year olds in Cook County and Chicago were affected by the Great Recession of 2007-2009 as seen in the employment to population declines from 2000 to 2010. Comparing the two age groups, we see that 16 to 19 year olds were more severely affected. From 2010 to 2015, both age groups had increases in employment to population ratios but remained lower than 2000 pre-recession levels. In Cook County (see Figure 3), the employment to population ratio for 20 to 24 year olds peaked in 1990 at 68.5, an increase of 7.5 percent from1960. The employment to population ratio fell from 1990 to 2010 for 20 to 24 year olds, decreasing 14 percent from 68.5 percent to 59.2 percent before increasing to 61.2 percent in 2015. For 16 to 19 year olds in Cook County, the employment to population ratio decreased from 42.6 percent in 1960 to 35.7 percent in 2000. The most severe decrease occurred between 2000 and 2010 when the employment to population ratio decreased 45.1 percent. Like 20 to 24 year olds in Cook County, 16 to 19 year olds had some recovery after the recession, increasing 9.7 percent from 19.6 percent to 21.5 percent. In Chicago (see Figure 4), the employment to population ratio for 20 to 24 year olds decreased from 63.7 percent in 1960 to 59.8 percent in 1980 and increased to 62.5 percent in 1990. From 1990 to 2010, the employment to population ratio decreased 10.4 percent from 62.5 percent to 56 percent before increasing 5 percent to 58.8 percent in 2015. For 16 to 19 year olds, the employment to population ratio decreased from 43.1 percent to 30.1 percent in 2000, a decrease of 30.2 percent. From 2000 to 2010, the employment to population ratio decreased from 20.1 percent to 16.5 percent a decrease of 45.2 percent before increasing 13.3 percent to 18.7 percent in 2015. Data Source: 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. 9
Data Source: 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. Figures 5 and 6 show employment to population ratios for 16 to 19 year olds by race/ethnicity in Cook County and Chicago from 1960 to 2015. Employment to population ratios for 16 to 19 year olds in Cook County and Chicago had relatively small changes over time compared to the severe impact by the Great Recession of 2007-2009. From 2000 to 2010, comparing employment to population ratios by race/ethnicity for 16 to 19 year olds in Cook County and Chicago, Chicago had lower employment to population ratios and all groups in both geographies had declines in employment to population ratios. While recovery occurred for White and Black 16 to 19 year olds, from 2010 to 2015, Hispanic or Latinos continued to decline. In 2015, all groups in Cook County and Chicago had employment to population ratios lower than 2000 pre-recession levels. In Cook County (see Figure 5), employment to population ratios increased from 1960 to 1980 for White (46.5 to 54.5 percent) and Hispanic or Latino (34.7 to 39.9 percent) 16 to 19 year olds while decreasing for Blacks (24.8 to 19.1 percent). From 1980 to 2000, the employment to population ratios for White 16 to 19 year olds steadily declined from 54.5 to 44.3 percent while decreasing just.1 percentage point for Hispanic or Latinos and increasing from 19.1 to 22.8 percent for Blacks. The Great Recession of 2007-2009 severely impacted every group as seen in the decline in employment to population ratios from 2000 to 2010. The employment to population ratio decreased 42.2 percent for White 16 to 19 year olds (44.3 to 25.6 percent) and Hispanic or Latino 16 to 19 year olds (39.8 to 23 percent), and decreased 54.8 percent for Black 16 to 19 year olds from 22.8 to10.3 percent. Recovery from the recession occurred for White and Black 16 to 19 year olds but not for Hispanic or Latinos. From 2010 to 2015 employment to population ratios for Whites increased 5.9 percent from 25.6 to 27.1, Black increased 48.5 percent from 10.3 to 15.3, and Hispanic or Latinos decreased 9.1 percent from 23 to 20.9 percent. In Chicago (see Figure 6), employment to population ratios for 16 to 19 year olds slowly increased 4.6 percent for Hispanic or Latinos from 1960 to 2000 from 35.1 to 36.7 percent while decreasing 18.9 percent for Blacks from 24.9 to 20.2 percent and decreasing 17.4 for whites from 48.9 to 40.4 percent. From 2000 to 2010, each group declined severely, Whites decreasing from 40.4 to 19.5 (-51.7 percent), Hispanic or Latinos decreasing from 36.7 to 22.8 (-37.8 10
percent), and Blacks decreasing from 20.2 to 9.6 percent (-52.5 percent). From 2010 to 2015, White and Black 16 to 19 year olds showed recovery from the recession with Whites increasing 36.4 percent (19.5 to 26.6 percent) and Blacks increasing 57.3 percent (9.6 to 15.1) while Hispanic or Latinos declined -18.9 percent (22.8 to 18.5 percent). Data Source: 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. Data Source: 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. Figure 6 is a replica of Figure 4 in GCI s report, Abandoned in their Neighborhoods: Youth Joblessness amidst the Flight of Industry and Opportunity. 11
Figures 7 and 8 show employment to population ratios for 16 to 19 year olds by race/ethnicity and gender in Cook County and Chicago from 1960 to 2015. From 1960 to 1980, 16 to 19 year old Whites and Hispanic or Latinos males and females had higher increases of employment to population ratios in Cook County compared to the slight increases in Chicago while Black males decreased more than any other groups in both Chicago and Cook County while black females slightly decreased. Recovery from the recession in Chicago was greater for White males and females and black females and occurred to a lesser extent for Black females while the continual decline in employment to population ratios for Hispanic or Latino males and females was greater in Chicago than Cook County. In Cook County (see Figure 7), employment to population ratios increased from 1960 to 1980 for White 16 to 19 year old males and females, increased for Hispanic or Latino males, and increased slightly for Hispanic or Latino females while declining for black males and slightly declining for black females. White Males and Females had a continual decline in employment to population ration from 1980 to 2000 while Hispanic or Latino and Black males and females slightly increased. The Great Recession of 2007-2009 severely impacted every group as employment to population ration plummeted to series lows. While Black males and females and White males showed recovery after the recession, Hispanic or Latino males and females and white females continued to decline from 2010 to 2015. In Chicago (see Figure 8), employment to population ratios declined from 1960 to 1980 most severely for Black males and declined slightly for Black females and Hispanic or Latino females while slightly increasing for White males and females and increasing the most for Hispanic or Latino males. From 1980 to 2000, White males and females and Hispanic or Latino males had decreases in employment to population ratio while Hispanic or Latino females and Black males and females had slight increases. The Great Recession of 2007-2009 impacted each group as employment to population ratios declined. From 2010 to 2015, White males and females and black females showed recovery from the recession while Black males had slight recovery and Hispanic or Latino males continued their pattern of decline from the recession. Data Source: 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. 12
Data Source: 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. Figure 8 is a replica of Figure 10 in GCI s report, Abandoned in their Neighborhoods: Youth Joblessness amidst the Flight of Industry and Opportunity. Figure 9 and 10 show employment to population ratios for 20 to 24 year olds by race/ethnicity in Cook County in Chicago from 1960 to 2015. Employment to population ratios for 20 to 24 year olds in Cook County and Chicago changed to a lesser extent than for 16 to 19 year olds and were less impacted by the Great Recession of 2007-2009 (see Figures 3 and 4). From 2000 to 2010, when 16 to 19 year olds were most severely impacted, Hispanic or Latino 20 to 24 year olds in Cook County and Chicago had increases in employment to population ratio while White and Black 20 to 24 year olds declined. From 2010 to 2015 all groups in Cook County and Chicago had increases in employment to population ratios. In Cook County (see Figure 9), Whites and Hispanic or Latino 20 to 24 year olds had increased employment to population ratios from 1960 to 1990. In 2015, each group had a lower employment to population than in 1990 even after increases for each group from 2010 to 2015. In Chicago (see Figure 10), Whites and Hispanic or Latino 20 to 24 year olds had increased employment to population ratios from 1960 to 1990 while Black 20 to 24 year olds declined from 1960 to 1980 and increased from 1980 to 1990. In 2015, Whites in Chicago had a higher employment to population ratio compared to Cook County While Hispanic or Latinos and Black in Cook County had higher employment to population ratios in Cook County compared to Chicago. 13
Data Source: 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. Data Source: 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. Figure 10 is a replica of Figure 7 in GCI s report, Abandoned in their Neighborhoods: Youth Joblessness amidst the Flight of Industry and Opportunity. 14
Figures 11 and 12 show employment to population ratios for 20 to 24 year olds by race/ethnicity and gender in Cook County from 1960 to 2015. In Cook County and Chicago, males of each respective race/ethnicity had higher employment to population ratios than females by large margins. In 2015, these margins were much smaller with White females having higher employment to population ratios than males and Hispanic or Latino and Black males having slightly higher employment to population ratios than females. In Cook County (see Figure 11), Hispanic or Latino males had the highest employment to population ratio in 1960, slightly higher than White males and 11.8 percentage points higher than Black males. In 2015, males of each racial/ ethnic group had lower employment to population ratios than they did in 1960. While White and Hispanic or Latino females had large increases in employment to population ratios from 1950 to 2015, Black females increased only slightly during that time period. In Chicago (see Figure 12), employment to population ratios were similar to Cook County with Hispanic or Latino males having the highest employment to population ratio, slightly higher than White males in 1960. By 2015, White females had the highest employment to population ratios (78.2 percent) followed by White males (74.3), Hispanic or Latino males (70.8), Hispanic or Latino females (62.4), Black males (40), and Black females (39.6). Data Source: 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. 15
Data Source: 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. Figure 12 is a replica of Figure 13 in GCI s report, Abandoned in their Neighborhoods: Youth Joblessness amidst the Flight of Industry and Opportunity. Table 7 shows the percent and number of 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 year olds that were out of work in Chicago, Cook County, Illinois and the U.S. in 2015. For 16 to 19 year olds, each racial/ethnic group in Chicago had higher out of work percentages than Cook County, Illinois and the U.S. while Cook County had the second highest, higher than Illinois and the U.S. The gap between White and Black 16 to 19 year olds was highest in Illinois where 16.2 percentage points separated the out of work rates for the two groups. The largest gap between White and Hispanic or Latino out of work rates was in Chicago where 8.1 percentage points separated the two groups. For 20 to 24 year olds, the U.S. had higher out of work rates for Whites and Hispanic or Latinos while Chicago had the highest rates for Blacks. The gaps in out of work rates between all racial/ethnic groups were greatest in Chicago. The gap between White and Black 20 to 24 year olds in Chicago was 36.5 percentage points while the second highest gap was in Cook County where 28.4 percentage points separated the groups. The gap between Hispanic or Latinos and Whites was 9.5 percentage points in Chicago while the gap between Hispanic or Latinos and Blacks was 27 percentage points. 16
Table 7: Percent and Number of 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 Year Olds that were Out of Work by Race/Ethnicity, 2015 Chicago, IL Cook County, IL Illinois U.S. White (non-hispanic or Latino) 73.4% 72.9% 65.0% 65.4% n 18,218 56,849 237,697 6,034,614 Black (non-hispanic or Latino) 84.9% 84.7% 81.2% 76.7% 16 to 19 n 39,864 56,646 88,548 1,849,130 Hispanic or Latino 81.5% 79.1% 71.5% 73.0% n 39,461 64,367 101,798 2,749,533 Total Population (Including all other groups) 81.3% 78.5% 69.9% 69.7% n 105,959 194,573 465,739 11,888,436 White (non-hispanic or Latino) 23.7% 27.9% 29.2% 30.3% n 13,716 33,677 143,089 3,747,072 Black (non-hispanic or Latino) 60.2% 56.3% 51.0% 41.8% 20 to 24 n 42,386 57,196 84,119 1,396,797 Hispanic or Latino 33.2% 31.3% 29.2% 33.6% n 21,589 34,042 53,453 1,616,054 Total Population (Including all other groups) 41.2% 38.8% 34.4% 34.0% n 87,836 141,283 313,122 7,696,147 Data Source: 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. Table 8 shows the percent and number of 16 to 19 year olds and 20 to 24 year olds that were out of work by race/ ethnicity and gender in 2015. Cook County had the highest out of work rate for White males while Chicago had the highest number of white females, Black males and females, and Hispanic or Latino males and females. The largest gaps in out of work rate between genders of each respective racial/ethnic group occurred for Black 16 to 19 year olds in Chicago where 7.3 percentage points separated males and females. 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 year old Hispanic or Latino males and females in Illinois had the lower out of work rates than Chicago, Cook County and the U.S. For 17
20 to 24 year olds, the gaps between racial/ethnic groups were highest between White and Black females where 38.6 percentage points separated the two groups. Between genders for each respective racial/ethnic group, Hispanic or Latino 20 to 24 year olds had the largest gap with females having an out of work rate 8.4 percentage points higher than males. Table 8: Percent and Number of 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 Year Olds that were Out of Work by Race/Ethnicity and Gender in Chicago, Cook County, Illinois, and the U.S., 2015 Males Females Chicago, IL Cook County, IL Illinois U.S. Chicago, IL Cook County, IL Illinois U.S. White (non-hispanic or Latino) 72.8% 74.1% 67.3% 67.6% 74.0% 71.8% 62.6% 63.0% n 8,564 29,709 125,594 3,193,717 9,654 27,140 112,103 2,840,897 16-19 Black (non-hispanic or Latino) 88.8% 88.1% 84.1% 79.5% 81.5% 81.4% 78.6% 73.7% n 19,518 28,969 44,055 980,317 20,346 27,677 44,493 868,813 Hispanic or Latino 82.4% 78.1% 70.8% 72.3% 80.6% 79.9% 72.1% 73.7% n 19,336 30,897 50,852 1,397,330 20,125 33,470 50,946 1,352,203 Total Population (Including all 83.2% 79.3% 71.4% 71.3% 79.6% 77.7% 68.4% 67.9% other groups) n 51,775 98,503 240,484 6,225,212 54,184 96,070 225,255 5,663,224 White (non-hispanic or Latino) 25.7% 28.9% 30.6% 30.5% 21.8% 26.9% 27.8% 30.2% n 7,314 17,273 76,860 1,936,940 6,402 16,404 66,229 1,810,132 20-24 Black (non-hispanic or Latino) 60.0% 53.8% 51.6% 45.2% 60.4% 58.7% 50.4% 38.3% n 20,517 26,658 42,670 761,213 21,869 30,538 41,449 635,584 Hispanic or Latino 29.2% 28.7% 25.6% 30.4% 37.6% 34.1% 33.2% 37.0% n 10,041 16,156 24,255 759,635 11,548 17,886 29,198 856,419 Total Population (Including all 39.6% 37.3% 34.5% 33.9% 42.8% 40.4% 34.4% 34.0% other groups) n 42,744 68,324 160,941 3,945,610 45,092 72,959 152,181 3,750,537 Data Source: 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago 18
Out of School and Out of Work Rates for Teens and Young Adults from 1960 to 2015 This section provides out of school and out of work rates for 16 to 19 and 20 to 24 year olds by race/ethnicity and gender in Cook County and Chicago from 1960 to 2015. Figures 13 and 14 show the out of school and out of work rate for 16 to 19 year olds by race/ethnicity in Cook County and Chicago from 1960 to 2015. Black 16 to 19 year olds in Cook County and Chicago had out of school and out of work rates of 29.2 percent, slightly higher than Hispanic or Latinos and more than double the out of school and out of work rate for White 16 to 19 year olds. In both Cook County and Chicago, out of school and out of work rates decreased steadily from 1960 to 2015 with the exception of between 1990 and 2000 for Hispanic or Latinos when the out of school and out of work rate increased slightly. In Cook County (see Figure 13), Black 16 to 19 year olds had an out of school and out of work rate decrease from 1960 to 2015 of 58.9 percent from 29.2 to 12.0 percent while Hispanic or Latinos decreased from 27.4 percent to 8.4 percent, a decrease of 69.3 percent, and Whites decreased from 11 percent in 1960 to 5.3 percent in 2015, a decrease of 51.8 percent. Figures were similar in Chicago from 1960 to 2015 (see Figure 14). In Chicago, Black 16 to 19 year olds had an out of school and out of work rate decrease from 1960 to 2015 of 55.8 percent from 29.2 to 12.9 percent while Hispanic or Latinos decreased from 27.7 percent to 8.2 percent, a decrease of 70.4 percent, and Whites decreased from 12 percent in 1960 to 6.3 percent in 2015, a decrease of 47.5 percent. Data Source: 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. 19
Data Source: 1960, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses and 2010 and 2015 American Community Survey, public use files. Tabulations by Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago. Figures 15 and 16 show out of school and out of work rates for 16 to 19 year olds by race/ethnicity and gender in Cook County and Chicago from 1960 to 2015. In 1960, females of each respective race/ethnicity had higher out of school and out of work rates than males in Cook County and Chicago. By 2015, females of each race/ethnicity had out of school and out of work rates that decreased and were lower than males for their respective race/ethnicity except for Hispanic or Latinos in Chicago, where females had a.8 percentage points higher out of school and out of work rates than Hispanic or Latino males. In Cook County (see Figure 15), the out of school and out of work rate for Black 16 to 19 year old males decreased from 1960 to 1970 before peaking at 22.4 in 1980. From 1980 to 2015, the out of school and out of work rate for Black males decreased 28.7 percent from 22.3 to 15.9 percent. Hispanic or Latino males decreased from 19.9 percent in 1960 to 8.3 percent in 2015, a decrease of 58.3 percent while White males increased from 7.8 percent to 8.3 percent, an increase of 6.4 percent. 16 to 19 year old females had substantial decreases in their out of school and out of work rates from 1960 to 2015. Out of school and out of work rates decreased for Black females from 34.9 percent to 8.1 percent, a decrease of 76.8 percent while Hispanic or Latino females decreased from 33.1 to 8.3, a decrease of 74.9 percent while White females decreased from 14.1 to 2.2 percent, a decrease of 84.4 percent. In Chicago (see Figure 16), figures were similar to Cook County with males decreasing slightly and females decreasing greater amounts. From 1960 to 2015, Black males decreased from 22.1 to 16.3 (-26.2), Hispanic or Latino males decreased from 20.2 to 7.8 percent (-61.4), White males decreased from 9.1 to 6.9 percent (-24.2). From 1960 to 2015, Black females decreased from 35 to 10 percent (-71.4), Hispanic or Latino females decreased from 33.1 to 8.6 (-74), and White females decreased from 14.7 to 5.7 percent (-61.2). 20