Life cycle assessment: past, present and future Jeroen Guinée Institute of Environmental Science (CML) - Department of Industrial Ecology (IE) Leiden University International Symposium on Life Cycle Assessment & Construction, July 10-12 2012, Nantes
Communication networks Divergence of methods Robustness of results How did this develop from past to present and what can we expect in the future?
Definitions Past: 1970-1990: conception 1990-2000: standardization Present: 2000-2010: elaboration Future: 2010-onwards
Contents Past: history of LCA Present: where are we today Future: how is LCA expected to further evolve Conclusions Source: Guinée et al. 2011, ES&T(45)1, 90-96 Past
Late 60s and early 70s: first solid waste LCAs Later broadened to energy, resources, chemical emissions and solid waste Beverage containers: Midwest Research Institute (Kansas City, US) Resource and Environmental Profile Analysis (REPA) Basler & Hofmann in Switzerland Past
Basler & Hofmann, 1974 First impact assessment from 1974!!
Rapidly growing interest in early 80s Swiss EMPA 1984: Ökobilanzen von Packstoffen first database Past
90s: Remarkable growth of scientific activities world-wide 30 Workshops LCA guides and handbooks Dedicated scientific journals Databases& software 60 50 40 25 20 15 10 5 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Figure 3-8: Total cumulative number of LCA handbook per year that has been released to the market during the period 1991-2004 30 20 10 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Figure 3-3: Total cumulative number of LCA software tools per year that has been released to the market during the period 1989-2003.
BUT, 80s & early 90s also period of: Widely diverging approaches, terminologies & results Lack of international scientific discussion platforms LCA repeatedly applied by firms to substantiate market claims Past
Cups, diapers, packaging and.. intense disputes Understandable: economic interests products are complex & have different features Source: Hocking in Science 1991, 251 (4993), 504-505 Past
Thus, first harmonisation activities SETAC Code of Practice Past
ISO Standardization Past
ISO s framework Life cycle assessment framework Goal and scope definition Direct applications: Inventory analysis Interpretation - Product development and improvement - Strategic planning - Public policy making - Marketing - Other Impact assessment Past
Present LCA (2000-2010): decade of elaboration UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative launched in 2002: putting LCT into practice (http://lcinitiative.unep.fr/) improving supporting tools through better data and indicators European Policy Integrated Product Policy (IPP) etc. European Platform on LCA established in 2005 Renewable Energy Directive (RED) US-EPA promotes use of LCA: http://www.epa.gov/nrmrl/lcaccess/ Present Various regional LCA networks
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Even LCA articles in ES&T 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1994 1993 Past
Life-cycle based carbon footprints emerged all over the Globe Basis for e.g. granting subsidies stimulating use of bio-energy indicator results MUST be robust and lawsuit-proof uncertainty analysis and PCRs!!! Limited scope focusing on CO 2 (-eq.) Indirect effects are insufficiently addressed by (particularly) attributional LCA studies Present
New LCA Handbooks & standards Present
But also new divergence With respect to: allocation, system boundaries, consequential LCA, use of economic models, impact assessment methods, economic and social indicators, spatial differentiation, temporal differentiation / dynamics, input-output based modelling, etc. Fully in line with ISO 14040, clause 4.3 g: there is no single method for conducting LCA Present
Starting situation for CALCAS There is a growing divergence of LCA approaches and there is a need to tackle several shortcomings of LCA as, e.g., surfaced from discussions on biofuel LCAs broadening (more impact types; broader questions) deepening (more mechanisms; better models) Research needs for future LCA Finished EU FP6 project: http://www.calcasproject.net/ Future
Deepening: more mechanisms For example, rebound effects: higher efficiency lower prices higher demand of same or other product or service more (?) impacts more efficient cars bigger cars high-efficient light bulbs more light points approaches: eco-efficiency vector (Hertwich J. Ind. Ecol. 9(1-2): 85-98) checklist approach (Hofstetter et al. JLCA11(SI1): 105-115) marginal consumption (Thiesen et al. JLCA13(2): 104-114 consumption-as-usual concept (Girod et al. JLCA16(1): 3-11) Future
Deepening: better models For example: BLM models dynamic LCA... Future
Broadening: more impact types Future
Broadening: broader questions For example: sectors basket of commodities (e.g., product portfolio company) countries/economies challenges for 2050: how to feed, fuel, transport, clothe. 9.5 billion people living the good life in a sustainable way in 2050? Future
2010-2020: decade of LCSA LCSA = Life-Cycle Sustainability Analysis First adopted by Klöpffer & Renner (2008): LCSA = LCA + LCC + SLCA Also adopted by CALCAS but slightly adapted: broadening and deepening framework for linking questions to approaches, identifying gaps and defining research needs LCSA super-framework!! Future
LCSA in a nutshell Life-cycle based!! Broadening triple bottom line People Planet Prosperity object of analysis Deepening product sector, basket of products,... country, economy,... scope of mechanisms rebounds,... particular mechanism better models Future 25
Q u e s t i o n s Role of scenarios Guinée et al., ES&T(45)1:90-96
Conclusions Past and Present 1960-1990: from solid waste analysis to full-fledged LCI methods divergence of terminology & methods, no platforms 1990-2000: full-fledged impact assessment methods Convergence through ISO-14040 series of Standards 2000-2010: LCC, social-lca, consequential LCA divergence of methods again Conclusions
Conclusions Future LCSA will receive increasing attention LCSA is a framework: select from this framework what is relevant for your study significant deviation from mainstream current practice applying LCA as a method using one of the existing guides & handbooks There is thus no standard LCSA all depends on the question framing of questions and linking types of questions to approaches very important!! Conclusions
It s already developing. LCSA section in International Society for Industrial Ecology (ISIE) UNEP WG on LCSA (broadening indicators) New subject area in the Int. Journal of LCA Various LCSA articles published: Conclusions Guinee et al. ES&T(45)1: 90-96 www.is4ie.org Guinée & Heijungs J Ind Ecol15(5): 656-658 Halog & Manik Sustainability(3)2: 469-499 Finkbeiner et al. Sustainability(2)10: 3309-3322 Creutzig et al. NatureClimateChange FirstOnLine 2012
Challenges Internalisation of life cycle thinking Life cycle think first, act in accordance! LCSA in practice life cycle scenario analysis Dealing with uncertainties mapping & communicating uncertainties & limitations of our work in a world increasingly asking for simple answers to complex problems, is a major challenge!! Conclusions
It s not the responsibility of the scientist to take the decision aimed for Conclusions
Thank you