Mississippi Fact Sheet Population Growth, Millennials, Brain Drain, and the Economy A Report to the Governor Dr. Mimmo Parisi Professor of Demography Department of Sociology Mississippi State University January 19, 2018
2017 Population Growth by the Numbers Population Growth = (Births-Deaths) + (Net Domestic Migration + Net International Migration) Population Growth = (37,373 30,875) + (-9,885 + 2,087) Population Growth = 6,498 7,798 Population Growth = -1,300 Population growth depends on multiple factors that includes numbers of births and deaths, net domestic migration, and net international migration. How each factor contributes to population growth must be seen in relation to the others. All factors must be examined together to provide an accurate picture of any population estimate. Also, all factors must be seen in the context of national trends to fully understand the magnitude of their impact on a given state. The estimates presented in the following slides provide detailed information on each factor that contributes to population growth, along with information on millennials, brain drain, and overall state economic indicators. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 3
Mississippi Population, 2000-2017 3,000,000 2,950,000 The estimates for 2016 and 2017 indicate that the population declined by 1,300. This decline is within the estimation margin of error and it will be revised next year, therefore this number needs to be interpreted cautiously. It also means that there has been no substantive decline in total population. The only conclusion one can draw from these estimates is that the Mississippi total population has remained fairly stable. 2,947,806 2,958,774 2,970,437 2,982,963 2,977,452 2,987,721 2,988,578 2,985,297 2,985,415 2,984,115 Population 2,900,000 2,850,000 2,800,000 2,848,353 2,852,994 2,858,681 2,868,312 2,889,010 2,905,943 2,904,978 2,928,350 This begs the question: why is the population not growing? The answer lies in two important factors. First, the state experienced a dramatic decline in births as a result of aggressive policies to reduce teenage pregnancy. These numbers are reported in slides 5-7. The population is also not growing because Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. In fact, the state experienced the least positive net international migration. These numbers are reported in slides 9-12. If Mississippi had not experienced a reduction in numbers of births and had experienced the same level of international in-migration as other states, Mississippi s total population would have continued to grow. Another key factor is that only a few counties experience a significant negative net domestic migration (see slide 12). 2,750,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 4 Year
Births by the Numbers
Annual Number of Births, 2011-2017 40,000 39,500 39,746 39,430 39,000 38,500 38,505 38,715 38,578 38,000 37,951 37,500 37,000 Overall Decline: -2,373 37,373 36,500 36,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year An important factor that needs to be accounted for in the population growth is the number of births. Mississippi experienced a declining annual number of births. As a result, Mississippi s total population would have had a net positive growth if the number of births would have remained the same since 2011. Other indicators suggest that the decline in birth stems primarily from a strong policy to reduce teen pregnancy. These numbers are presented in the next two slides. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popest/state-total.html 6
Mississippi Teenage Pregnancy Rate 5.00 Teenage Pregnancy Rate 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 4.30 3.89 3.82 3.63 3.64 3.55 4.10 4.07 4.06 3.90 3.34 3.01 2.74 2.52 2.25 2.03 1.92 1.00 0.50 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Compared to the nation, Mississippi experienced one of the fastest reductions in teenage pregnancy. The teen pregnancy rate declined by 361 percent since 2000. Source: Mississippi State Department of Health, Vital Statistics Bureau, 2017. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/31,0,75.html 7
Birth Events of Female Mississippi Public School Students in Grades 6-12 by Abstinence Education Curriculum Type 4.00 Percent That Experienced Birth Event 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 Statewide: 1.9 1.68 1.77 3.37 1.00 0.50 0.00 Abstinence-only Abstinence-plus No abstinence education Curriculum Type Mississippi has adopted an aggressive abstinence program by providing two types of curriculum. Official statistics from the Department of Health show that these programs had a significant impact on reducing teen pregnancy in the K12 system. Source: Mississippi LifeTracks, 2016. https://www.lifetracks.ms.gov/requestanalysis/researchstudies.aspx 8
Migration by the Numbers
Net Domestic Migration, 2016-2017 Florida Texas North Carolina Washington Arizona South Carolina Georgia Tennessee Nevada Oregon Colorado Idaho Utah Montana Minnesota Maine Arkansas New Hampshire Delaware Alabama South Dakota District of Columbia Kentucky Vermont Indiana Missouri Wisconsin Iowa Nebraska Rhode Island North Dakota New Mexico Ohio Wyoming Mississippi Alaska Oklahoma West Virginia Virginia Michigan Hawaii Kansas Connecticut Massachusetts Maryland Pennsylvania Louisiana New Jersey Illinois California New York State -190,508-114,779-138,195-918 -976-1,050-2,086-2,724-3,493-3,854-6,653-7,437-8,205-8,613-9,885-9,938-10,470-10,507-12,395-12,698-13,537-14,150-22,270-23,089-23,984-57,274-27,515-25,793 79,163 66,051 64,579 63,111 49,015 41,107 40,232 38,227 37,975 36,653 24,597 17,568 8,666 7,941 5,376 4,718 4,687 4,484 3,840 1,976 1,152 1,024 160,854-250,000-200,000-150,000-100,000-50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Domestic Migration Mississippi is not the only state to have a negative net domestic migration. There are 27 states that have experienced negative net domestic migration, and Mississippi does not have one of the largest declines. The takeaway from this graph is that Mississippi is in line with national trends. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 10
Net International Migration, 2016-2017 California Florida New York Texas New Jersey Massachusetts Pennsylvania Illinois Virginia Maryland Washington Georgia Michigan Ohio North Carolina Connecticut Minnesota Arizona Indiana Tennessee Colorado Wisconsin Missouri Nevada Oregon Louisiana Oklahoma Kentucky Iowa Hawaii Kansas South Carolina Utah Nebraska Rhode Island Alabama District of Columbia Arkansas New Mexico Delaware New Hampshire Mississippi Idaho Maine Alaska North Dakota South Dakota Vermont West Virginia Wyoming Montana State 110,417 37,389 45,29856,942 33,699 33,365 29,031 25,984 25,870 23,179 22,131 20,162 17,758 16,460 16,205 11,410 10,469 9,973 8,268 8,076 7,957 7,712 7,696 7,322 7,014 6,836 6,703 6,198 5,447 5,019 4,853 4,798 4,475 4,160 3,499 2,771 2,722 2,236 2,087 1,928 1,578 1,557 1,489 1,273 933 867 328 296 130,411 144,165 164,867 Negative domestic migration is typically counterbalanced by international migration, which is mostly comprised of Asians and Hispanics. Unlike other states, Mississippi is not a new Hispanic destination. The state ranks as one of the lowest in the country. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 International Migration Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, 2017. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/national/totals/ 11
Domestic Migration: Gain and Loss to Other States 2016-2017 Moving To Mississippi Moving out of Mississippi Like other states, Mississippi gains and loses population to other states in the union. The migration flow is not unidirectional, where people simply leave, but rather bidirectional, where some move out and some move in. These flows are reported in the top two maps, and clearly suggest that many people see Mississippi as a place to live and work. Mississippi Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States Mississippi also experienced a positive net migration from 11 states. More people came to Mississippi from Illinois, Louisiana Michigan, New York, and West Virginia than residents moving from Mississippi to each of these states. In contrast, 70 percent of the total negative net migration resulted from more people moving from Mississippi to Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, than residents from these states moving to Mississippi. Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data 2015-2016. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls 12
Who Gains and Who Loses in Mississippi, 2016-2017 Moving from Other States to MS Counties Moving Out of MS Counties To Other States Mississippi County Population Net Gain or Loss to Other States Each county experienced residents moving in from other states, but also residents moving out to other states. Migration flows are state processes that touch all of the counties in the state, with some gaining and some losing population. Eight counties have gained population, with Desoto, Hancock, and Pearl River counties experiencing the largest gains. 87 percent of the total population loss in the state comes from a few counties, with Hinds county experiencing the largest loss followed by Lauderdale, Oktibbeha, Forrest, Washington, Harrison, and Lowndes counties. Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data 2015-2016. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/1516ms.xls 13
Millennials by the Numbers
Share of Millennials (Ages 16-35) in State Population State District of Columbia Utah North Dakota Alaska Texas California Colorado New York Massachusetts Rhode Island Louisiana Oklahoma Washington Georgia Illinois Nebraska Kansas Nation Wyoming Mississippi Indiana Arizona Virginia Oregon Nevada Iowa New Mexico Minnesota Maryland Missouri Idaho Arkansas Tennessee South Dakota Alabama Michigan Wisconsin Kentucky Pennsylvania Ohio Vermont South Carolina North Carolina Connecticut Delaware Montana New Jersey Hawaii New Hampshire Florida West Virginia Maine 30.6 30.1 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.4 23.6 37.8 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 When we look at the total share of the millennial population, Mississippi is right on the national average, suggesting that the state s millennial population is stable. Percent Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017 https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t 15
Millennials, Generation X, and Baby Boomers Millennials (17-35) 18% Generation X (35-50) with their Children 82% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Estimates on migration flow from the American Community Survey indicate that millennials have the least negative net outmigration in the state. This is consistent with current literature suggesting that millennials are not as mobile as other generations. The estimates from the American Community Survey indicate that the largest negative net outmigration in the state are experienced by people in the age group of 35-50, commonly known as Generation X. Estimates from the American Community Survey also indicate that baby boomers experience a positive net in migration, suggesting that this age group are growing in the state. Source: American Community Survey, 2017. 16
College Educated Millennials Leaving State of Residence Alaska District of Columbia Wyoming Idaho Vermont North Dakota Rhode Island Montana New Hampshire Utah New Mexico Hawaii Virginia South Dakota Nevada Iowa Connecticut Delaware Kansas Maine South Carolina Nation Mississippi Indiana Maryland West Virginia Missouri Oregon Alabama Wisconsin Oklahoma Nebraska North Carolina Colorado Georgia Kentucky Arizona Massachusetts Pennsylvania Arkansas Michigan New Jersey Tennessee Washington Ohio Florida Illinois Minnesota New York Louisiana Texas California State 8% 8%8% 8%8% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%8% 6% 5% 4% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9%9% 8%9% 12% 13%13% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 15% 14% 14% 14% 16% 18% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent 23% Estimates from the American Community Survey indicate that Mississippi, like the rest of the nation, experiences a 10 percent outmigration of college educated millennials. Mississippi population patterns for its millennials are no different than the national trends. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2017. https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t 17
Brain Drain by the Numbers
Students Working in Mississippi Within 1 Year of Graduating Percent Employed 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 69% 81% 78% 74% A large majority of our students in the two and four year college systems choose to live and work in the state. In contrast, a very small number of our in-state students choose to live and work in the state. This is consistent with the estimates on migration patterns reported by the American Community Survey. The state experienced a average annual net growth of more than 4,000 individuals aged 18-19. The American Community survey also indicates that this net gain is counterbalanced by the loss of these students once they graduate. 20% 19% 10% 0% Community College Associate of Arts Community College Associate of Applied Science Community College Certificate University In-State University Out-of-State Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017. 19
In-State and Out-of-State Enrollment Growth 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 In-State Out-of-State Over the last 10 years, the number of out-of-state students has grown at a faster rate than in-state students. Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017. 20
Out-of-State Enrollment at Mississippi IHL Universities UM 44.38 MSU 33.64 ASU JSU MVSU USM 24.24 23.39 22.81 20.88 This graph reports percentage of university total enrollment made up of out-of-state students. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the universities that attract more out-of-state students. DSU 17.17 UMMC 15.25 MUW 14.75 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 Percent Source: Institutions of Higher Learning Study, 2017; Mississippi State Longitudinal Data System, 2017. 21
Economic Indicators by the Numbers
Annual Covered Employment, 2000-2017 1,150,000 1,140,000 1,136,706 1,130,000 1,120,000 1,122,474 1,135,336 1,131,096 1,128,924 1,114,379 1,124,854 Jobs 1,110,000 1,100,000 1,090,000 1,111,255 1,104,225 1,096,802 1,105,915 1,111,269 1,081,138 1,093,581 1,102,603 1,080,000 1,076,488 1,085,748 1,070,000 1,060,000 1,074,617 1,050,000 1,040,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year Estimates from BLS indicate that the number of people employed is reaching pre-recession numbers. The state is only 6,400 shy of pre-recession numbers. Typically, the state enters recessions one year later, and the recovery is also delayed one year relative to the national trends. As a result, the number employed is expected to grow for the next few years. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017. https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv 23
Average Annual Wages Adjusted for Inflation (Constant 2017 Dollars) $42,000 Average Annual Pay (2017 Dollars) $41,000 $40,000 $39,000 $38,000 $37,000 $36,000 $35,000 $39,518 $39,706$39,659 $39,327 $39,134 $38,475 $38,779 $39,071$39,153 $39,018$39,026 $39,111 $37,983 $37,117 $37,434 $36,788 $36,497 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Year $40,532 Estimates from BLS indicate that wages, adjusted for inflation, have grown over the last 17 years. These estimates are based on 2017 constant dollars. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2017. https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrv 24
Mississippi General Fund Contributions $1,900,000,000 $1,800,000,000 $1,700,000,000 Individual Income Tax $2,100,000,000 $2,050,000,000 $2,000,000,000 Sales Tax General Fund Dollars $1,600,000,000 $1,500,000,000 $1,400,000,000 $1,300,000,000 $1,200,000,000 $1,100,000,000 $1,000,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $1,950,000,000 $1,900,000,000 $1,850,000,000 $1,800,000,000 $1,750,000,000 $1,700,000,000 $1,650,000,000 $1,600,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Contributions of income and sales tax to the general fund have experienced upward trends over the last 10 years. Individual income tax has shown an increase in tax payers, and the increase in sales tax shows an increase in disposable income as the result of real wage increases. General Fund Dollars Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue, 2017. http://www.dor.ms.gov/statistics/pages/default.aspx 25