Teaching Decision Making to Adolescents Edited by Jonathan Baron University of Pennsylvania Rex V. Brown Decision Sciences Consortium, Inc. Reston, VA LAWRENCE ERLBAUM ASSOCIATES, PUBLISHERS 1991 Hillsdale, New Jersey Hove and London
Contents List of Contributors Prologue: Why Americans Can't Think Straight 1 Jonathan Baron and Rex V. Brown Teaching Decision Making 3 Personalized Decision Analysis 4 The Reflective Self 5 Chapter 1 Introduction 7 Jonathan Baron and Rex V. Brown Scope of Book 7 Adolescent Decision Making: Is it Deficient and if so, How? 8 How Should Deficiencies in Decision Making be Corrected? 9 Evaluating Success 12 Institutionalizing Teaching in the Schools 15 Should Decision Making be Taught? 17 Chapter 2 Teaching Decision Making to Adolescents: A Critical Review 19 Ruth Beyth-Marom, Baruch Fischhoff, Marilyn Jacobs Quadrel, and Lita Furby xi
Vi CONTENTS Introduction 19 Decision Making: Definition and Normative Models 20 Programs Focused on Decision-Making Skills 32 Programs Teaching Social and Life Skills 39 Summary and Conclusions 46 Chapter 3 The GOFER Course in Decision Making 61 Leon Mann, Ros Harmoni, and Colin Power The Origin of GOFER 62 GOFER and GOOFER 64 Overview of the GOFER Course 66 When to Teach a Course in Decision Making? 68 Evaluation 71 Attitudes and Values About Decision Making 74 Implementation of the Course 76 Chapter 4 Thinking and Decision Making 79 Marilyn Jager Adams and Carl E. Feehrer The Odyssey Framework 80 Evaluation of the Curriculum 92 Summary 93 Chapter S Toward Improved Instruction in Decision Making to Adolescents: A Conceptual Framework and Pilot Program 95 Jonathan Baron and Rex V. Brown Introduction 95 Flaws to be Corrected: Heuristics and Biases 98 Concepts to be Absorbed l00 Pedagogy 105 A Research and Pilot Teaching Program 108 Measuring the Impact of Decision Training 110 Conclusion 114 Appendix A: Illustrative Analysis of a Personal Decision 119 Appendix B: Courses Taught as Part of DSC Project 121
CONTENTS Chapter 6 Evaluation of an Intermediate Level Decision Analysis Course 123 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey and Vincent N. Campbell Introduction 123 A Unit in Decision Analysis 124 Formal Evaluation of Decision-Making Course 130 Informal Evaluation of Decision-Making Course 138 Discussion and Lessons Learned 143 VII Chapter 7 Teaching Decision Making in the City: Two Experiences 147 Greer Graumlich and Jonathan Baron Graumlich's Class 147 Baron's Class 154 Conclusion 158 Chapter 8 Teaching the Foundations of Social Decision Making and Problem Solving in the Elementary School 161 Maurice J. Elias, Leslie R. Branden-Muller, and Michael A. Sayette A Comparison of Approaches 165 Chapter 9 Teaching Decision-Making Skills to Student Nurses 185 James Shanteau, Margaret Grter, Joyce Johnson, and Eta Berner Method 190 Results 194 Discussion 197 Appendix 203
viii CONTENTS Chapter 10 Analog Devices for Teaching Decision Skills to Adolescents Anne W. Martin and Rex V. Brown Introduction 207 Case Testing the Beam as a Problem-Solving Aid 211 Experiments on Developing Mathematical Intuition 218 Conclusions 227 Appendix A: Alternative Analog Possibilities 230 Appendix B: Intuition Training Exercises 233 2O7 Chapter 11 Learning-Disabled Adolescents' Difficulties in Solving Personal/Social Problems 237 Joanna P. Williams Training in Problem Solving 238 Comprehension 241 Our Research Program 243 Instruction 260 Summary 266 Editors' Preface to Chapter 12 271 Chapter 12 Normative Decision Making 273 John A. Swets Introduction 273 Lesson 1: A Dice Game Illustrative of Some Common Decision Problems 275 Lesson 2: Analyzing the Dice Game 276 Lesson 3: Variations of the Dice Game 279 Lesson 4: A General Formula for the Optimal Criterion 280 Lesson 5: The Practical Generality of the Dice-Game Analysis 283 Lesson 6: Other Decision Settings and Other Decision Rules 287 Lesson 7: Related Concepts in Statistical Inference 290 Lesson 8: Some Other Relationships Between Relevant Quantities in Decision Making 292
CONTENTS Chapter 13 Institutional Strategy for Teaching Decision Making in Schools 297 Vincent N. Campbell and Kathryn B. Laskey IX Introduction 297 Curriculum Content 298 Instrustructional Techniques 300 Teacher Acceptance 3O4 Outreach 306 Chapter 14 Metaphors for Effective Thinking Daniel D. Wheeler Introduction 309 The Metaphor of Problem Solving 313 The Metaphor of Decision Making 316 The Metaphor of Design 320 The Metaphor of Improvisation 323 Conclusions 326 3O9 Author Index 329 Subject Index 341