Complete College Tennessee Act of 2010 An Update Association of Government Accountants 2013 Southeast Region Professional Development Conference
STATE FISCAL CONDITION & IMPACT ON HIGHER EDUCATION 2
Personal Income (millions) Revenues and Expenditures in Tennessee, 1978 Base Revenues and Expenditures (millions) $14,000 $13,000 $12,000 $11,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $221,000 $204,000 $187,000 $170,000 $153,000 $136,000 $119,000 $102,000 $85,000 $68,000 $51,000 $34,000 $17,000 $0 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 $0 Tax Financed Expenditures Adjusted Revenues Personal Income 3
Total Revenue per FTE Universities Inflation Adjusted - 2011 Dollars 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 804 3,350-10,621 917 2,536 2,844 3,917 5,175 5,104 - - - 9,075 7,010 7,178 2,999 4,970 563 6,090 3,559 3,860 4,696 4,864 1,441 1,669 4,852 4,373-1986-87 1996-97 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 State Appropriations ARRA/MOE Student Fees Less Grant Aid (TSAA, TELS, Pell) Grant Aid 4
10,000 Total Revenue per FTE - Community Colleges Inflation Adjusted 2011 Dollars 9,000 974 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 806-7,573 1,001 1,366-5,734 2,148 2,355 1,746 1,728 - - 5,029 5,196 2,652 1,573 298 4,486 3,577 704 617 3,372 3,958 526 745 3,031-1986-87 1996-97 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 State Appropriations ARRA/MOE Student Fees Less Grant Aid (TSAA, TELS, Pell) Grant Aid 5
Connecticut Alaska New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Vermont Wyoming Minnesota California Maryland Oklahoma Delaware Hawaii Kentucky Iowa Washington Nebraska Maine North Carolina South Carolina Indiana Michigan Massachusetts West Virginia United States Texas Alabama Wisconsin Illinois Arkansas Missouri Kansas Utah Arizona Georgia New Mexico Mississippi Rhode Island Virginia Ohio North Dakota New Hampshire Louisiana Idaho Tennessee Oregon Nevada Florida Montana South Dakota Colorado 161% 149% 141% 131% 127% 125% 120% 119% 112% 112% 112% 111% 110% 106% 106% 106% 105% 103% 102% 101% 101% 101% 100% 100% 98% 97% 96% 95% 93% 93% 92% 92% 92% 91% 89% 88% 86% 86% 85% 84% 84% 82% 80% 79% 72% 72% 71% 67% 62% 190% 178% 200% 180% State, Local, Tuition and Fee Revenues per FTE Student Public Research, 2009-10 Percent of National Average Sources: NCES, IPEDS Completions and Enrollment Surveys 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 6
Delaware Alaska Vermont Connecticut New Mexico Hawaii North Carolina Illinois Iowa New Jersey Maine Michigan Montana Alabama Massachusetts Missouri Virginia New York Maryland Kentucky California Rhode Island Texas New Hampshire North Dakota Mississippi South Carolina United States Indiana Idaho Ohio Kansas Nebraska Oregon South Dakota Wisconsin Minnesota Washington Arkansas Oklahoma Pennsylvania Tennessee West Virginia Florida Georgia Louisiana Utah Nevada Colorado 42% 41% 156% 152% 141% 134% 134% 132% 129% 129% 126% 125% 123% 115% 113% 112% 111% 111% 110% 109% 108% 106% 105% 104% 104% 103% 103% 101% 100% 100% 96% 95% 95% 94% 93% 93% 92% 91% 91% 89% 85% 84% 80% 80% 75% 75% 75% 75% 70% 180% 160% State, Local, Tuition and Fee Revenues per FTE Student Public Bachelor s and Masters, 2009-10 Percent of National Average Sources: NCES, IPEDS Completions and Enrollment Surveys 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 7
Alaska Wisconsin Wyoming Oregon Maryland New Hampshire Delaware Connecticut North Dakota Hawaii Kansas Arizona Nebraska New York Idaho Michigan Rhode Island New Mexico Pennsylvania Vermont Minnesota Massachusetts Utah Texas Ohio Washington United States Illinois California South Dakota New Jersey Iowa Arkansas Montana North Carolina Oklahoma Maine Tennessee Alabama Virginia Mississippi South Carolina Colorado Missouri West Virginia Kentucky Nevada Georgia Florida Louisiana Indiana 163% 160% 155% 153% 141% 135% 132% 128% 128% 121% 121% 120% 120% 114% 113% 112% 108% 107% 107% 104% 104% 103% 101% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 94% 93% 93% 92% 92% 91% 91% 88% 83% 82% 80% 78% 77% 76% 73% 71% 71% 70% 70% 65% 64% 219% 525% 600% State, Local, Tuition and Fee Revenues per FTE Student Public Two-Year, 2009-10 Percent of National Average Sources: NCES, IPEDS Completions and Enrollment Surveys 500% 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% 8
Complete College Tennessee Act of 2010 WHY WAS IT NECESSARY? 9
Our human capital flow: the Tennessee student pipeline, 2008 86.0 69.5 71.1 59.6 44.0 43.8 41.7 29.8 28.9 30.2 20.5 19.3 10 Source: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems. March 2011 Matthew N. Murray, UT Center for Business & Economic Research
Massachusetts Colorado Minnesota Connecticut Vermont New Hampshire Maryland New Jersey Virginia North Dakota New York Washington Rhode Island Illinois Hawaii Nebraska Iowa Kansas Utah Maine Wisconsin South Dakota Montana Oregon California Nation Pennsylvania North Carolina Delaware Florida Michigan Idaho Georgia Missouri Wyoming Arizona Ohio Texas Alaska South Carolina New Mexico Indiana Oklahoma Tennessee Alabama Kentucky Mississippi Nevada Arkansas Louisiana West Virginia 47 46.6 46.4 46.2 45.8 45.4 45.1 45 44.7 44.6 43.3 43.2 41.7 41.6 41.5 41.1 40.7 40.3 40 39.6 39.4 39.2 39 38.9 38.7 38.6 38.2 37.6 37 36.8 36.5 36.4 36.4 36.2 35.8 35.5 34.5 34.4 34.2 33.9 33.8 33 32.1 31.9 30.8 30.3 30 28.2 27.9 27.8 50.8 Percent of 25-64 Year Olds with College Degrees Associate and Higher, 2011 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 11 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 American Community Survey
U.S. States % OECD Country Korea (65.0) 60 Comparing Tennessee with Nations and Other States in the Percentage of Young Adult Degree Attainment (Ages 25-34) Source: 2012 OECD Education at a Glance; 2010 American Community Survey Massachusetts 54 North Dakota 52 Minnesota New York 50 56 Japan, Canada New Jersey 48 Ireland New Hampshire Norway Connecticut Iowa 46 New Zealand, United Kingdom Virginia Illinois Maryland South Dakota Pennsylvania Nebraska Colorado Vermont 44 Australia, Luxembourg, Israel, Belgium Rhode Island Kansas France Montana Wisconsin 42 UNITED STATES, Sweden Washington Netherlands, Switzerland Missouri Hawaii 40 Wyoming Maine Delaware Utah Finland, Spain, Chile Ohio California Oregon 38 Estonia, Denmark Michigan North Carolina Poland Indiana Florida South Carolina 36 Iceland Georgia Alaska Kentucky Tennessee 34 Arizona Mississippi Texas Alabama Idaho 32 Louisiana Slovenia, Greece Oklahoma Arkansas West Virginia 30 Nevada 28 New Mexico 26 Germany, Hungary Portugal 24 Slovak Rep Czech Rep 22 Mexico Austria, Italy 20 Turkey (17.4) 12
Educational Attainment of Working Aged Adults, Ages 25-64 Tennessee, U.S., and Most Educated State, 2011 35 Tennessee United States Massachusetts 33.2 30 27.0 25 23.5 22.1 22.0 24.8 20 17 16.6 19.3 17.6 15 12.5 12.3 10.8 10 8.7 6.9 8.6 8.3 8.7 5 0 Less than High School High School Some College, No Degree Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate, Professional Degree 13 Source: US Census Bureau, ACS
Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2009) The Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and the State New Economy Index (2010) 55 High College Attainment, Low Personal Income High College Attainment, High Personal Income 48 41 34 27 UT MT NC VT ND HI NE OR IA KS ME SD DE WI USPA GA FL SC AZ OH MI ID NM MO IN TX AL TNOK KY NV MS LA AR WV CO MN NH VA RI WA IL Bottom Tier Low College Attainment, Low Personal Income Low College Attainment, High Personal Income 20 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey; Bureau of Economic Analysis; Kauffman Foundation CA AK Personal Income per Capita (2010) WY NY MD NJ MA CT State New Economy Index 2010 Top Tier Middle Tier 14
Fraction happy Fraction happy about life by years of completed schooling before and after conditioning on income 0.95 0.90 0.85 Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1. 0.80 0 11 12 13 15 16+ No income controls Years of schooling Conditional on income 15
Fraction of respondents Job satisfaction and years of completed schooling before and after conditioning on income 0.88 0.86 Are you satisfied with your job? 0.84 0.82 Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1. 0.80 0 11 12 13 15 16+ Before conditioning on income Years of schooling After conditioning on income 16
Self-assessed health status and years of completed schooling before and after conditioning on income Fraction of respondents 0.50 Fraction reporting Very Good Health 0.40 0.30 Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1. 0.20 0 11 12 13 15 16+ Before conditioning on income Years of schooling After conditioning on income 17
Do you believe people can be trusted? Fraction of respondents 0.60 0.50 0.40 Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1. 0.30 Before conditioning on income 0 11 12 13 15 16+ Years of schooling After conditioning on income 18
Fraction of respondents Likelihood of divorce or separation 0.15 0.10 0.05 Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1. 0 0 11 12 13 15 16+ Before conditioning on income Years of schooling After conditioning on income 19
Fraction of respondents Time preferences for today or the future: Do you live for today? 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 Source: Oreopoulos, P. & Salvanes, K.G., Priceless: The Nonpecuniary Benefits of Schooling, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 25, No.1. 0.30 0 11 12 13 15 16+ Before conditioning on income Years of schooling After conditioning on income 20
An Insider s Story HOW THE COMPLETE COLLEGE TENNESSEE ACT COME ABOUT 21
Discussion Points Why Interested? Governor Bredesen: Higher Ed represented unfinished business Legislature: What do we get for our investment in higher ed? What was the Environment? Great Recession s impact on higher education funding Race to Top competition Status of TBR & UT System Heads All members of TBR/UT/THEC boards were appointed by Governor Bredesen External Expertise & Resources Made Available Process Direction Initial Thoughts: It about organizational structure Final thoughts: Its about aligning higher educations goals and funding structure to those of the State Result: Complete College Tennessee Act 22
Complete College Tennessee Act of 2010 WHAT DID IT DO? 23
Master Plan With a Purpose Establishes Master Planning with a Purpose Address the state's economic development, workforce development and research needs; Ensure increased degree production within the state's capacity to support higher education; and Use institutional mission differentiation to realize statewide efficiencies through institutional collaboration and minimized redundancy in degree offerings, instructional locations and competitive research 24
Common Core & Transfer Pathways Requires 60 Hour University Track Program 41 Hours of General Education 19 Hours of Pre-Major Requires creations of Transfer Pathways Guarantees Transfer of A.A. or A.S. degrees to Public Universities as a Junior Guarantees Transfer of Completed Blocks of University Track Non-transfer Courses Will be Clearly Identified 25
Establishes a Comprehensive Community College System System Elements Coordinated Programs Statewide Consolidate Services and Standardize Processes Utilize Cohort Programs and Block Scheduling Develop More Cooperative Programs Between Technology Centers and Community Colleges Single Budget Line Item 26
27 Outcome Based Funding Formula Directs New Funding Formula be Implemented Must be consistent with and further the goals of the statewide master plan Funding recommendations shall reflect the priorities of the approved master plan New Funding Formula: shall emphasize outcomes across a range of variables; be weighted to reinforce each institution's mission; provide incentives for productivity improvements. Outcomes shall include: end of term enrollment, student retention, timely progress toward degree completion, and degree production Outcomes may include: student transfer activity, research; student success, and compliance with transfer and articulation principles.
Other Provisions Prohibits Remedial or Developmental Courses at Universities Mandates Dual Admission Policies Research Initiatives Various Reporting and Implementation Provisions 28
Summary When Taken Together Complete College Act of 2010 First to the Top Act of 2010 Tennessee Diploma Project and Achieve Will be Transformative for Tennessee 29
Complete College Tennessee Act of 2010 RESULTS SO FAR 30
Common Core & Tennessee Transfer Pathways Common Core Requirement Completed Transfer Pathways Completed Pathway example http://www.tntransferpathway.org/ 31
Community College System System Approach Creation of Vice Chancellor s Office Marketing Plan Single Line Item Appropriation Program Coordination Among and Between Colleges and TTC s Consolidate Services and Standardized Processes ERP Hosting Initiative a consolidation activity Business Process Modeling a standardization activity 32
Dual Admission THEC established policy governing dual admission agreements Every university & community college has agreements in place with institutions within their geographic proximity Cohort / Block Scheduling Programs 33
Outcome Formula Developed by THEC with involvement of Systems and state leadership First used to make funding recommendation for FY 2011-12 Transition Provisions Formula phased in over 3 years (FY 2013-14) Hold Harmless provision phased out over 3 years (FY 2013-14) 34
Higher Education Funding Formula Outcomes Rewarded University Outcomes Students Accumulating 24 hours Students Accumulating 48 hour Students Accumulating 72 hours Bachelors and Associates Degrees Masters/Ed Specialist Degrees Doctoral/Law Degrees Research and Service Expenditures Transfers Out with 12 hours Degrees per 100 FTE Six-Year Graduation Rate Community College Outcomes Students Accumulating 12 hours Students Accumulating 24 hours Students Accumulating 36 hours Dual Enrollment Associates Degrees Certificates Job Placements Remedial & Development Success Transfers Out with 12 hours Workforce Training (contact hours) Awards per 100 FTE 35
Premium Outcomes For Each Low Income Student (Pell eligible); or Adult Student (age 24+) Earning One of the Following Outcomes University Outcomes Students Accumulating 24 hours Students Accumulating 48 hour Students Accumulating 72 hours Bachelors and Associates Degrees Community College Outcomes Students Accumulating 12 hours Students Accumulating 24 hours Students Accumulating 36 hours Associates Degrees Certificates The Institution Earns a Premium of 40% (each outcome counts as 1.4 outcomes) 36
How the Outcome Formula Works A Community College Example Outcomes Subpopulations Outcome Raw Data Scaled Data Raw Data Scaled @ Premium Total Scaled Outcomes Students Accumulating 12 hrs (Scale=2) 1,885 943 1,926 385.2 1,328 Students Accumulating 24 hrs (Scale=2) 1,557 779 1,685 337.0 1,116 Students Accumulating 36 hrs (Scale=2) 1,293 647 1,439 287.8 934 Dual Enrollment (Scale=2) 546 273 273 Associates (Scale=1.5) 716 477 847 225.9 703 Certificates (Scale=1.5) 159 106 198 52.8 159 Job Placements (Scale=.5) 224 448 448 Remedial & Developmental Success (Scale=5) 1,561 312 312 Transfers Out with 12 hrs (Scale=2) 370 185 185 Workforce Training (Contact Hours)(Scale=50) 5,610 112 112 Awards per 100 FTE (Scale=.05) 18.50 370 370 5,940 37
How the Outcome Formula Works A Community College Example Outcome Data Weight Weighted Outcomes Students Accumulating 12 hrs (Scale=2) 1,328 4% 53 Students Accumulating 24 hrs (Scale=2) 1,116 5% 56 Students Accumulating 36 hrs (Scale=2) 934 6% 56 Dual Enrollment (Scale=2) 273 5% 14 Associates (Scale=1.5) 703 20% 141 Certificates (Scale=1.5) 159 20% 26 Job Placements (Scale=.5) 448 10% 45 Remedial & Developmental Success (Scale=5) 312 5% 16 Transfers Out with 12 hrs (Scale=2) 185 10% 19 Workforce Training (Contact Hours)(Scale=50) 112 5% 6 Awards per 100 FTE (Scale=.05) 370 10% 37 5,940 100% Total 467 Total Weighted Outcomes Avg SREB Salary Subtotal 467 x $ 54,782 = $ 25,572,899 M&O, Utilities + $ 4,719,866 Equipment + $ 778,721 Performance Funding + $ 1,659,607 Deduct Out of State Tuition - $ 28,300 Grand Total Calculation $ 32,702,800 State Portion (66.7% of total) $ 21,812,800 38
Outcome Funding Formula OUTCOME PERFORMANCE 39
Weighted Outcomes History 3,000 2,800 2012 2013 2014 2,884 2,895 2,794 2,896 2,874 2,799 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,231 1,201 1,155 1,844 1,817 1,788 1,289 1,275 1,261 1,502 1,478 1,447 1,000 APSU ETSU MTSU TSU TTU UoM 40
Cumulative Change in Weighted Outcomes FY 2012 to FY 2014 120.0 100.0 80.0 75.5 89.2 97.3 60.0 56.3 40.0 20.0 - (20.0) (40.0) APSU ETSU MTSU TSU TTU UoM (28.3) (30.9) (60.0) 41
Enrollment Trend Universities (FTE) 80,000 78,000 76,000 74,000 72,000 70,000 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 42
University Outcome Performance FY 2010 2012 (enrollment adjusted) NEGATIVE GROWTH RATE POSITIVE GROWTH RATE 6 6 2 (1) 5 (2) 4 (3) 3 (2) 3 (3) 3 (3) 3 (5) 1 (6) (7) (5) (3) (1) 1 3 5 7 Number of Institutions Bach Transfers Out Assoc Ed Spec & Masters Degrees Per FTE Research & Serv. Doc & Law 72 CH Grad Rate 48 CH 24 CH 43
University Outcome Summary (Enrollment Adjusted) Outcomes with Performance Increases at all Institutions + - Bachelor and Associates Transfers Out with 12 hours Annual Change Average Low High 6.5% 0.9% 12.7% 19.0% 8.2% 33.4% Outcomes with Performance Decreases at all Institutions Students Accumulating 24 hrs. Annual Change Average Low High -6.9% -13.4% -3.1% +/- Outcomes with Mixed Performance Across Institutions Annual Change Average Low High Students Accumulating 48 hrs. -1.7% -3.1% 0.9% Students Accumulating 72 hrs. 0.3% -4.5% 6.9% Masters / Ed Specialist Degrees 4.1% -17.2% 11.9% Doctoral / Law Degrees 6.5% -3.8% 27.0% Research and Service -0.9% -7.8% 9.4% Degrees per 100 FTE 1.3% -1.4% 3.9% Six-Year Graduation Rate 0.9% -2.0% 4.3% 44
Weighted Outcomes History 1,000.0 2012 2013 2014 900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 45
200.0 150.0 172.6 Cumulative Change in Weighted Outcomes 2012 to 2014 100.0 104.0 90.0 50.0 59.7-14.3 9.7 2.2 0.6 (3.7) (8.3) (50.0) (15.8) (50.4) (100.0) (87.9) 46
Enrollment Trend Community Colleges (FTE) 65,000 63,000 61,000 59,000 57,000 55,000 53,000 51,000 49,000 47,000 45,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 47
Community College Outcome Performance FY 2010 2012 (enrollment adjusted) NEGATIVE GROWTH RATE POSITIVE GROWTH RATE 13 Transfers Out 13 Job Place 13 Assoc (11) (5) (2) (1) 2 8 12 11 Awards Per FTE Certificates Contact Hrs 36 CH (13) 24 CH (13) 12 CH (15) (10) (5) - 5 10 15 Number of Institutions 48
Community College Outcome Summary (Enrollment Adjusted) + Outcomes with Performance Increases at all Institutions Annual Change Average Low High Dual Enrollment 15.0% 3.3% 34.9% Remedial and Developmental Success 20.8% 14.2% 34.3% Associate Degrees 14.6% 9.0% 21.6% Job Placement 17.6% 6.5% 62.7% Transfers Out 15.4% 3.4% 23.6% - Outcomes with Performance Decreases at all Institutions: +/- Outcomes with Mixed Performance Across the Institutions Annual Change Average Low High 36 Credit Hours -2.9% -6.7% 3.9% Certificates 25.7% -23.5% 345.8% Awards per FTE 8.9% -3.6% 20.3% Contact Hours (1,000) 20.5% -23.5% 57.7% Annual Change Average Low High 12 Credit Hours -16.9% -22.1% -10.5% 24 Credit Hours -10.1% -13.3% -5.2% 49
How Are We Responding? Completion Academies Redesign of Gateway Courses Dashboards for Staff Staff connection of their work to outcome generation 50
Q & A