Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators April 28 Regional Economic Research Institute Lutgert College Of Business Phone 239-59-7319 Florida Gulf Coast University 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL 33965
Table of Contents Airport Activity...3 Single Family Building Permits...5 Taxable Sales...7 Workforce Unemployment...9 Sales of Single Family Existing Homes and Median Sales Price...11 Consumer Price Index...13 Population...14 Contact List: Dr. Gary Jackson, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone 59-7317 Email; gjackson@fgcu.edu Ms. Carol Sweeney, Economist, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone 59-7327 Email; csweeney@fgcu.edu Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support Introduction The next Federal Reserve System Open Market Committee meeting is planned for April 29 and 3. It is expected that the interest rates will be cut once more but most likely by 25 basis points or one-quarter percent. In its press release on March 18 the Federal Reserve Committee noted that the outlook for the economic activity had weakened further and there was concern for elevated levels of inflation. The higher levels of inflation being observed will limit the ability of the Federal Reserve System to lower interest rates much further without creating higher inflationary expectations. Our regional economic indicator charts are showing the impact of the slowdown in the local economy in the form of lower retail sales, higher unemployment, lower levels of airport passenger traffic, and low permitting levels. Unemployment rates continue to increase in the region, reaching highs in Charlotte County of 6.9 percent and in Lee County to 6.5 percent, compared the national unemployment rate for March of 5.1 percent. This slowdown in the regional economy reflects lower housing and construction, lower durable goods sales, reduced investment levels, tighter credit requirements; sub-prime loan issues, lower consumer confidence, and higher oil prices. 2
The Regional Economic Research Institute (RERI) is continuing to develop the regional economic database and this report as a way to support its mission and assist the region. We are currently working on the definitions and chart designs for tracking commercial permit activity and hope to add these to our report in the near future. The Institute thanks its many partners for assistance in obtaining the data, including the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee counties, and the county and city permit offices. Airport Activity Airport passenger activity is defined as the number of arrivals and departures. Chart One illustrates the monthly seasonality of airport passenger traffic. Passenger numbers for Regional Southwest and Sarasota are shown on the left vertical axis and the numbers for Naples Airport are shown on the right vertical axis. Peak activity months are February, March and April during the winter season. Significantly lower activity takes place in the summer season, especially the period of June through September. Regional Southwest Airport (RSW) located in Lee County is ranked as the 5 th busiest airport in the nation. The January 28 passenger activity rose relative to December levels as expected. Passenger activity for Regional Southwest was 845,741 in February 28, which is relatively unchanged from the February activity level of 841,727 as shown in Chart Two. RSW passenger activity for November through January 28 has been below the levels set for the same month a year earlier. Sarasota (SRQ) passenger activity was 166,624 in February 28 or twelve percent higher than February as shown in Chart Three. Naples activity remains well below February levels but saw an increase to 792 passengers for February 28. Charlotte County s airport (PGD) activity is not shown due to cessation of operations by Sky Bus flights when the company declared bankruptcy in early April. 3
Chart One Thousands 12 1 Airport Passenger Arrivals plus Departures (APF on Right hand scale) 6 5 Thousands Arrivals+Departures (RSW & SR 8 6 4 2 4 3 2 1 Arrivals+Departures (APF Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 28 Feb 28 RSW (SWFL Int'l) Month SRQ (Sarasota) APF (Naples) Source: Local Airport Authorities Chart Two 12 RSW (SW Florida International) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - 1 8 6 4 2 199 2 26 28 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 4
Chart Three 3 SRQ (Sarasota) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend Thousands Arrivals plus Departures 25 2 15 1 5 199 2 26 28 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities Single Family Building Permits As expected, single-family building permits issued in March remained low. The number of single-family building permits in unincorporated Lee County, as illustrated in Chart Four, declined to 74 for the month of March 28 from 98 in the prior month. Singlefamily permits in Collier County, which are illustrated in Chart Five, have not been updated for March. Charlotte County figures show continued low levels in permitting from 42 in February 28 to 4 in March 28, as shown in Chart Six. 5
Chart Four 16 Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County 2-7 Monthly Averages for Each Year; Most Recent 12 Months Data 14 12 Permits Issued 1 8 6 4 2 2 Av 21 Av 22 Av 23 24 Av Av 25 Av 26 Av Av Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 28 28 28 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and unincorporated Lee County Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits Chart Five 35 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County 2- Monthly Averages; Most Recent 12 Months Data 3 25 Permits Issued 2 15 1 5 2 Av 21 Av 22 23 24 Av Av Av 25 26 Av Av Av Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 28 28 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments; includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. 6
Chart Six 3 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County 21- Monthly Averages; Most Recent 12 Months Data 25 Number of Permits 2 15 1 5 21 Av 22 Av 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av Av Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 28 Feb 28 Mar 28 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments; includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Taxable Sales Taxable sales are reported by the Florida Department of Revenue. We have adjusted the taxable sales charts to show the month of collection instead of the reporting month that is issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. This makes December the latest collection month plotted on Charts Seven and Eight. These figures are used to track consumer spending, and therefore are an important contributor to economic growth in the region. Taxable sales from December 26 to December have declined 19. percent in Charlotte, 8 percent in Collier, 15 percent in Lee, 5 percent in Glades, and 14 percent in Hendry County. This indicates a significant reduction in consumption spending in our local economy. Chart Seven provides a comparison of taxable sales for the years 2 to. 7
Chart Seven 1,2 Monthly Taxable Sales 2 to 4 Charlotte / Collier / Lee - Million 1, 8 6 4 Charlotte Collier Lee Glades Hendry 35 3 25 2 15 1 Glades / Hendry - Million 2 5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Monthly Averages for Each Year Source: Florida Department of Tax Research Chart Eight 14 Taxable Sales by Month 4 Charlotte / Collier / Lee - Million 12 1 8 6 4 2 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Glades / Hendry - Million Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Jul-7 Aug-7 Sep-7 Oct-7 Nov-7 Dec-7 Charlotte Collier Lee Glades Hendry Source: Florida Department of Tax Research 8
Workforce Unemployment Unemployment continues to rise in our region with each county seeing an increase in unemployment from February to March 28 as shown in Chart Nine. Only Collier and Glades remain below the national unemployment rate of 5.1 percent. This is largely due to the region s dependence on construction-related employment. Charlotte County unemployment rose to 6.9 percent in March 28 from 6.5 percent in February 28. Collier County unemployment rose slightly to 5. percent from 4.8 percent in February 28. Lee County saw the unemployment rate increase from 6.2 percent in February to 6.5 percent in March 28. Hendry County unemployment rose to 6.9 percent in March 28 compared to 6.7 percent in February 28. Glades County unemployment remained the lowest in the region with 4.6 percent in March 28, up from 4.5 percent in February 28. Charts Ten and Eleven show the unemployment rates for the coastal and inland counties for our region and provide an historical perspective of unemployment rates from 2 to. Generally, unemployment rates above 4.5 to 5. percent reflect cyclical unemployment and a slowdown of the economy from longrun trends. Chart Nine 11. 1. 9. 8. SWFL County Unemployment Rates (%) - Most Recent 12 Months Charlotte Collier Glades Hendry Lee 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. Source: AWI Apr 7 May 7 Jun 7 Jul 7 Aug 7 Sep 7 Oct 7 Nov 7 Dec 7 Jan 8. Feb 8 Mar 8 9
Chart Ten 8. SWFL Coastal County Unemployment Rates (%) 2- Monthly Averages; Most Recent 12 Months Data 7. 6. Charlotte Collier Lee 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Apr 7 May 7 Jun 7 Jul 7 Aug 7 Sep 7 Oct 7 Nov 7 Dec 7 Jan 8. Feb 8 Mar 8 Source: AWI Chart Eleven 11. SWFL Inland County Unemployment Rates (%) 2- Monthly Averages; Most Recent 12 Months Data 1. 9. 8. Glades Hendry 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Apr 7 May 7 Jun 7 Jul 7 Aug 7 Sep 7 Oct 7 Nov 7 Dec 7 Jan 8. Feb 8 Mar 8 Source: AWI 1
Sales of Single Family Existing Homes and Median Sales Price The Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) has assisted FGCU s Regional Economic Research Institute (RERI) effort by providing Collier County s existing singlefamily housing sales and the median monthly price for the last 12 months. Charts Twelve through Fourteen provide the latest trends for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties. In February 28, Lee County (Chart Twelve) saw an increase in existing home sales, up to 445 single-family home sales, while the median sales price decreased to $211,9, compared to 338 sales and $234, in January 28. Collier County (Chart Thirteen) saw existing single-family home sales increase slightly to 127, although the median home sale price decreased to $46, from $432, figure in January 28. The February 28 data for Charlotte County (Chart Fourteen) showed an increase in existing sales to 21 but a decrease in the median sale price to $151,3. Chart Twelve 12 Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors $35 Homes Sold by Realtors 1 8 6 4 2 Lee Homes Sold by Realtors Lee Median Sale Price Blank Months: No data available $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 Mar 26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Aug 26 Sep 26 Oct 26 Nov 26 Dec 26 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 28 Feb 28 Median Sale Price - Thousands $ Source: Florida Association of Realtors, Fort Myers-Cape Coral MSA, http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm 11
Chart Thirteen 25 Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors $7 Homes Sold by Realtors 2 15 1 5 Collier Homes Sold by Realtors Collier Median Sale Price $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 Median Sale Price - Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 28 Feb 28 $ Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR), www.naplesarea.com Chart Fourteen 45 Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors $25 Homes Sold by Realtors 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Charlotte Homes Sold by Realtors Charlotte Median Sale Price $2 $15 $1 $5 Mar 26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Aug 26 Sep 26 Oct 26 Nov 26 Dec 26 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 28 Feb 28 Median Sale Price - Thousands $ Source: Florida Association of Realtors, Punta Gorda, Florida MSA, http://media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm 12
Consumer Price Index The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects data monthly on the cost of a fixed basket of consumer goods at the national and regional levels, but only every six months at many local locations. The closest local location for the CPI data is for the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. Chart Fifteen provides a summary of the changes observed since 2. Several trends are of interest. First, consumer prices in the Southern region of the United States are less than the national price level for the period from 2 to. Secondly, the Tampa/St. Petersburg consumer prices have increased at a faster rate than the nation. Chart Fifteen 13 125 12 Consumer Price Index - Annual Data (Year 2 = 1) Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearw ater, FL (MSA) US - South Region * US * South Region: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaw are, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and West Virginia. CPI 115 11 15 1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Source: BLS 13
Population A Florida Demographic Estimating Conference was held on February 18, 28 by Florida s Office of Economic & Demographic Research to revise the Florida Population Forecast in light of the current economic slowdown. Lower county level population forecasts are expected to be available in July 28. Chart Sixteen shows the revised net change in residential population for Florida. Charts Seventeen and Eighteen show the historic population growth from 199 to 26. Charlotte County has seen significant population growth between 199 and 26. Collier County has grown at an even faster rate from 199 to 26 and Lee County doubled its population from 199 to 26. As indicated in Chart Eighteen, Glades and Hendry Counties have had lower rates of population growth. Table One and Chart Nineteen show the new projected population increases for to 23. Charts Twenty through Twenty-two provide the regional percentages of population by County for the years 199, 26, and 23. Chart Sixteen Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, Florida Demographics Estimating Conference, February 18, 28, http://edr.state.fl.us/conferences/population/fdec82_charts.pdf 14
Chart Seventeen 7 Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties Population - Thousand 6 5 4 3 2 Charlotte Collier Lee 1 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Source: Florida EDR: Demographic Estimating Conference Database, Updated August. Chart Eighteen 45 Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Population - Thousands 3 25 2 15 Glades Hendry 1 5 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 Source: Florida EDR: Demographic Estimating Conference Database, Updated August. Table One New EDR Demographic Estimating Conference 15
Population Estimates and Projections by County Year Charlotte Collier Lee Hendry Glades 164,653 331,948 615,999 39,668 11,6 21 175,389 379,226 676,531 41,41 11,613 22 28,615 497,512 881,734 47,635 12,598 23 235,855 598,519 1,53,932 52,885 13,368 Source: Florida EDR: Demographic Estimating conference Database, Updated August. Chart Nineteen 12 Population Growth Projections 6 Charlotte / Collier / Lee - Thousand 1 8 6 4 2 5 4 3 2 1 Glades / Hendry - Thousand 25 actual 21 215 22 225 23 Charlotte Collier Lee Glades Hendry Source: Florida EDR: Demographic Estimating Conference Database, Updated August. 16
Chart Twenty Population Distribution by County - 199 Collier 24% Glades 1% Hendry 4% Charlotte 18% Lee 53% Source: Florida EDR: Demographic Estimating Conference Database, Updated August. Chart Twenty-one Population Distribution by County - Collier 29% Glades 1% Hendry 3% Charlotte 14% Lee 53% Source: Florida EDR: Demographic Estimating conference Database, Updated August. 17
Chart Twenty-two Population Distribution by County - 23 Collier 31% Glades 1% Hendry 3% Charlotte 12% Lee 53% Source: Florida EDR: Demographic Estimating conference Database, Updated August. 18