Chart Collection for Morning Briefing

Chart Collection for Morning Briefing ch, 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box

1 Figure 1. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING IN REAL GDP 1 1 Q1 1 8 6 Q4 4 CEO Outlook (>=expansion) Capital Spending (yearly percent change) - -1-1 - 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics. - 14 Figure 2. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING ON EQUIPMENT IN REAL GDP 3 1 1 8 Q1 1 6 4 CEO Outlook (>=expansion) Capital Spending: Equipment (yearly percent change) Q4-1 - - 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics. -3 Page 3 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

14 Figure 3. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING ON STRUCTURES IN REAL GDP 3 1 1 8 Q1 1 6 Q4 4 CEO Outlook (>=expansion) Capital Spending: Structures (yearly percent change) -1 - - 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics. -3 14 1 1 8 6 4 - Figure 4. CEO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & CAPITAL SPENDING ON INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY IN REAL GDP 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Business Roundtable, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Haver Analytics. CEO Outlook (>=expansion) Capital Spending: Intellectual Property (yearly percent change) Q1 Q4 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 - Page 4 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

18 Figure. 18 16 14 1 CONSUMER SURVEYS Consumer Confidence Index (198=1, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-1966=1, nsa) 16 14 1 1 1 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 1 67 69 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 21 CURRENT CONDITIONS Consumer Confidence Index (198=1, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-1966=1, nsa) 1 16 1 14 13 1 11 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 67 69 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 21 EXPECTATIONS Consumer Confidence Index (198=1, sa) Consumer Sentiment Index (Q1-1966=1, nsa) 67 69 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 21 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: The Conference Board and the University of Michigan Survey Research Center. 16 1 14 13 1 11 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 Page / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

16 14 Figure 6. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES BY AGE GROUPS (198=1, sa) 16 14 1 1 1 1 8 8 6 4 Under 3 Years Old (116.3) 3 to 4 Years Old (116.1) Years & Over (11.) 6 4 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: The Conference Board. 1 1 Figure 7. REAL CONSUMER SPENDING (quarterly percent change, saar) Real Retail Sales Excluding Building Materials* (3-month percent change in 3-ma, saar) (2.1) Real Consumption Expenditures Less Services (GDP Accounts) (.4) 1 1 - - -1-1 -1 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18-1 * Retail sales less building materials divided by CPI goods. Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 6 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

1 Figure 8. REAL RETAIL SALES (3-month percent change in 3-ma, saar) Total* (2.8) 1 1 1 - - -1-1 -1 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18-1 1 1 Excluding Building Materials* (2.1) 1 1 - - -1-1 -1 3 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18-1 3 1 Excluding Autos, Gasoline, Building Materials, and Food Services* (.1) 1-1 -1-6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 * Deflated by CPI Goods. Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics. - Page 7 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

9 8 7 6 Figure 9. NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOUSING STARTS 17 1 12 4 3 1 Housing ket Index Single-Family Housing Starts (thousand units, saar) 1 7 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 7 6 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS Current Single-Family Sales Index Future Single-Family Sales Index 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX COMPONENTS 2 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 1 7 6 4 4 3 Traffic of Prospective Home Buyers 3 1 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: National Association of Home Builders and Commerce Department. 1 Page 8 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 Figure 1. HOUSING STARTS (million units, saar) Total Single-Family 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.2 2. 2. 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2 9 61 63 6 67 69 71 73 7 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 1 17 19 21.2.4 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Census Bureau. Figure 11. HOUSING STARTS & LUMBER FUTURES PRICE 2. 4 Random Length Lumber Futures Price* ($/1 board ft) Housing Starts (million units, saar) 3/17 2. 1. 3 1.. 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18. * Nearby contract. Source: Census Bureau and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Page 9 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

8 Figure 12. NAHB INDEX & S&P HOMEBUILDING 14 7 1 6 1 NAHB Index 4 S&P Homebuilding Index 3/17 8 6 3 4 1 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Standard & Poor s and National Association of Home Builders..9.6.3 Figure 13. NEW HIRES & SEPARATIONS (millions, sa) Jan Jan.9.6.3.. 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.1 Total Hires (.4) Total Separations (.3) 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.8 3. 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3. Page 1 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

3.4 3.2 Figure 14. LAYOFFS & QUITS (millions, sa) Jan 3.4 3.2 3. 3. 2.8 2.6 Quits (3.2) Layoffs (1.6) 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2. 2. 1.8 1.8 1.6 Jan 1.6 1.4 1.2 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1.4 1.2 14 Figure 1. QUITS vs. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 3.4 Jan 3.2 1 Consumer Confidence Index (198=1) 3. 1 Quits (millions, sa) 2.8 2.6 8 2.4 2.2 6 2. 4 1.8 1.6 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and The Conference Board. 1.4 Page 11 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

4 Figure 16. REGIONAL MANUFACTURING INDEXES* 4 3 3 1 1-1 - -3-4 4 Composite NY & Philly (=24.6) NY, Philly, and KC (=2.3) NY, Philly, KC, and Dallas (=2.1) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=23.) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=21.8) 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17-1 - -3-4 4 3 3 1 1-1 - -3 3 New Orders NY and Philly (=3.) NY, Philly, and KC (=2.8) NY, Philly, KC, and Dallas (=22.3) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas (=22.6) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=22.6) 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17-1 - -3 3 1 1-1 - Employment NY and Philly (=13.2) NY, Philly, and KC (=1.) NY, Philly, KC, and Dallas (=9.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, and Dallas ( (=9.9) NY, Philly, Richmond, KC, Dallas, and Chicago (=1.1) -1 - -3 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 * Production index used in composite index for Dallas region (viewed by Dallas Fed as key measure of manufacturing conditions). Chicago contains both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms with global operations. Source: Federal Reserve Banks of Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Dallas, and Deutsche Borse Group. -3 Page 12 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

1 Figure 17. US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: MANUFACTURING (12=1) 1 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 Source: Federal Reserve Board. 6 13 1 Figure 18. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (1=1, ratio scale) 13 1 11 11 1 1 9 9 8 Leading Economic Indicators (126.2) 8 Coincident Economic Indicators (114.9) 7 7 6 8 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 1 16 17 18 19 Source: The Conference Board. 6 Page 13 / ch, 17 / Chart Collection for Morning Briefing www.

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