1996 1999 2 22 23 27 28 29 Key Issues in Enrolments, Equity and Access Annex E in Independent Completion Report Professor Wadan Narsey A critical issue for stakeholders in the education sector in Fiji is the question of access for children from the poorer families, especially in remote and disadvantaged communities. Access to Primary Schools A crude examination of gross enrolment data indicates that primary school enrolments have decreased significantly from 1996 levels (a decline of 13% to 29) but also in the last three years. While it might be thought that some of this decline could be the result of the post-coup economic crisis faced by the Fiji economy and poorer families, a large part of the decline in enrolments probably due to demographic changes. 1 In particular, there has been a large decline in ijian primary enrolments a decline of some 4% between 1996 and 29 (Table 1). The indigenous Fijian primary enrolments grew by 9% over this period, although the growth has slowed down in the last few years. Table 1 Primary Enrolments (incl.f1 and F2) 1996 1999 2 22 23 27 28 29 Ch 96/9 % Ch. 8212 86748 8636 85561 89516 9298 9434 89854 7734 9 63749 5892 56835 554 529 42682 4998 37938-25811 -4 Others 6933 696 667 7437 683 6122 4,311 5,844-189 -16 Totals 15282 15261 149811 14352 149246 13912 135,743 133,636-19166 -13 Source: MoE data. Graph 1 2 Primary Enrolments (C1-8, F1, F2) 15 1 5 Totals Others 1 All population projections for this paper were done by the author. 1
These changes have been largely a mirror of demographic changes taking place. Indigenous Fijian children aged 6 to 13 is estimated to have grown by 7% between 1996 and 29, while the ijian children in that age group declined by 7% (Table 2). Table 2 Population 6 to 13 ( and ijians) % Change 1996 census 27 census 28 proj. 29 proj. 96 to 9 76149 855 8144 81537 7 6871 4562 38319 3677-41 Source: Census and ICR population projections. Graph 2 Population Ages 6 to 13 ( and ijians) Population of ages 6 to 13 1 5 Table 3 Enrolment of Ages 6 to 13 ( and ijians) 7727 84865 85184 84674 65112 42699 42198 37928 Graph 3 Enrolment of ages 6 to 13 1 5 2
Thus estimates of net enrolment ratios of this age group suggests that while there was a major improvement from 1996 to 27 for, there seems to have been a small decline to 29 for both and ijians. This is probably associated with the harsher economic climate over the last three years. Table 4 Net Enrolment Ratios (Ages 6 to 13) 11.5 15.4 15.1 13.8 17. 15.3 11.1 15.1 Graph 4 Net Enrolment Ratios (ages 6 to 13) 11 15 1 Nevertheless, despite the small decline, there would seem to be close to optimal enrolments of primary age children (see section below). 2 Ethnic Mix of Enrolments at Primary School Level One of the characteristics of Fiji s education system is that the majority of schools are owned and managed by private education authorities which are associated with cultural, ethnic or religious groups, attempting primarily to serve their sectarian interests. Thus there are school authorities associated with Methodists, Catholics, SDA, Latter Day Saints, Hindus (Sanatan Dharm, Arya Samaj, Sangam, Sikh), Muslim, Chinese, Gujrati and others. There are major demographic changes taking place (due largely to emigration and lower fertility of non-fijian groups), however, which are dramatically changing the ethnic, cultural and religious mix of the enrolment at these schools. Thus the indigenous Fijian share of primary schools has risen from 54% in 1996 to 67% in 29, while the ijian share has fallen from 42% to 28%. At Class 1, the share of Indo- is around 19% currently. Schools which were previously ijian in character are now either ethnically mixed, or have become largely Fijian. 2 Percentages over 1 being enrolment would be largely due to five years olds enrolled at primary school. 3
27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 (thousands) Table 5 Ethnic shares of Primary School Enrolments (Classes 1 to 8, Forms 1 and 2) 1996 1999 2 22 23 27 28 29 Perc. Fij. 54 57 58 6 6 65 67 67 Perc. Ind. 42 39 38 35 35 31 3 28 There is also a slow but steady depopulation of the rural areas, as both and Indo- migrate to the urban areas. These changes pose major challenges to MoE in terms of school rationalization, and drastic redeployment of teachers. Demographic transition impacts Nevertheless, future plans for assistance to the education sector need to take into account a demographic peculiarity that Fiji is currently going through. The emigration and the very powerful demographic transition of the ijian community has meant that the overall numbers of primary age children (ages 6 to 13) has been falling for some eight years, despite the moderate increases in Fijian numbers. Graph 5 based on rough 3 population projections using the 27 census data, indicate that the pressure on primary school places should still be declining till 211, after which the MoE can expect increasing demand for another eight years, before the demographic transition for indigenous begins to bite, and enrolments decline again. Thus the next 8 years will see increased pressure for enrolments in primary schools, with most of the increases being felt in the urban schools. Graph 5 Population projections of Ages 6 to 13 (27 to 227) () Projections of Ages 6 to 13 (27 to 227) () 13 125 12 Enrolments and Access at Secondary Similar, but less dramatic changes have been taking place at the secondary school levels. While total enrolments have increased by 13% between 1996 and 29, this is a composite of 46% increase in indigenous Fijian secondary enrolments, and a 17% decline in ijian 3 The detailed demographic parameters such as survivorship ratios and age specific fertility rates from Census 27 data have not been released by the Fiji Islands Bureau of Statistics 4
enrolments. While the indigenous Fijian secondary enrolments are still slowly rising, the major decline in ijian numbers is serious enough to lead to a slight decline in total enrolments for 29, of about 6 in total.. Table 6 Secondary Enrolments (Forms 3 to 7) 1996 1999 2 22 23 27 28 29 Ch.96/9 % Ch. 26912 2857 28845 375 3232 3715 36866 39317 1245 46 29236 28564 28248 26766 2619 23178 25391 24244-4992 -17 Others 387 2832 2913 293 329 3354 5421 3511 424 14 All 59235 5993 66 6446 618 63637 67678 6772 7837 13 Graph 6 Seconday Enrolments (F3-7) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1996 1999 2 22 23 27 28 29 All Others At secondary school levels, both the enrolment of those aged 14 to 17 (corresponding roughly to Forms 3 to 6) and the census and estimated number of those aged 14 to 17 have leveled off in the last few years. Table 7 Enrolment of ages 14 to 17 25222 34723 34465 34811 24372 231 19254 194 5
Graph 8 Enrolment 14 to 17 5 25 Graph 9 Population 14 to 17 5 25 Compared to 74% in 1996, the net enrolment ratios had risen to 93% for indigenous in 27 and 88% for ijians. This reversal of ethnic relativity in enrolment ratios may well have been a result of the Affirmative Action polices in education, for indigenous, in a situation, where the incidence of poverty has been somewhat higher for ijians, and especially for rural ijians. Table 8 Net Enrolment Ratios (ages 14 to 17) 74. 92.6 9.7 9.4 74.2 88.4 85.5 87.7 The above estimates indicate that the net enrolment ratio for indigenous has gone down slightly from 92.6% in 27 to 9.4% in 29. That for ijians also went down from 88.4% in 27 to 85.5% in 28, but increased again to 87.7% in 29. The latter may seem odd, but one explanatory factor may be that the extremely high rural:urban drift of ijians in recent years has also given formerly poor rural ijians, better access to regular cash incomes in the urban areas, which may have enabled more of their children to be kept in school. 6
Graph 1 Net Enrolment Ratios (ages 14 to 17) 1 9 8 7 Changing ethnic mix As with primary enrolments and schools, secondary enrolments and schools are also seeing a dramatic change in ethnic mix, with the percentage Fijian rising from 45% in 1996 to 59% in 29. The ijian share has correspondingly fallen from 49% to 36% in 29. This latter share will decline to 22% by 219. While the changes are not as dramatic as with primary schools, nevertheless, the challenges for school management authorities and MoE are significant. 4 Table 9 Ethnic mix of Secondary School Enrolments (1996 to 29) 1996 1999 2 22 23 27 28 29 Perc. Fij. 45 48 48 51 52 58 54 59 Perc. Ind. 49 48 47 44 43 36 38 36 Demographic transitions at secondary age groups As with the primary age cohorts, there are similarly significant and unusual demographic changes taking place at the secondary age groups (ages 14 to 18) which education planners must take into account. In contrast to the trends for primary age groups, that for secondary age groups are taking place later some ten years later. Enrolment demand may be expected to keep reducing from the current levels to 218 (a decline in potential demand of some 1%) before the demand begins to rise again, to peak around 224. This next eight years therefore should give MoE and donors in education a one off valuable opportunity to improve access for those who are currently not in school, while improving quality for those at school. 4 The current Interim Government has come out with statements that in future, schools will not be known by their ethnic tags. 7
PD 1 PD 2 PD 3 PD 4 PD 5 PD 6 PD 7 PD 8 PD 9 PD top Graph 11 Projections of secondary age population (14 to 18) 27 to 227 The Poor and School Attendance: evidence from the 22-3 HIES To put the above statistics derived from MoE enrolments data into context, it is useful to examine some relevant statistics derived from the Fiji 22-3 Household Income and Expenditure Survey. 5 This data pertains to the situation as at 22-3- not the current situation. Graph 12 gives the net enrolment ratios for population deciles (PD1 being the lowest 1 percent of population and PD top being the highest 1 percent of population). Table 12 gives the results for the Bottom 3 deciles, the Top 3 deciles and the gap between them. Graph 12 Percentage of age group at school (22-3 HIES) 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 6 to 11 12 to 13 14 to 16 17 to 18 4 to 5 19 to 21 Of those 6 to 11 (first six years of primary school) and 12 to 13 (years 7 and 8 or Forms 1 and 2), close to 1 percent were at school in 22-3 at all decile levels. 5 Estimated by consultant for ICR 21. 8
It is clear that access for the poor does become an issue at ages 14 to 16 (corresponding to Forms 3 to 5) when the percentages at school for the poor (Bottom 3 deciles) drops to around 83 percent compared to 94 percent for the top 3 deciles. Table 1 Percentages of Age Groups at School (22-3 HIES data) School level Age group Bottom 3 Deciles Top 3 Deciles % Gap Pre-school 4 to 5 28 45-37 Primary 1-6 6 to 11 97 99-2 Primary 7-8/F1-F2 12 to 13 96 1-4 Secondary 3 5 14 to 16 83 94-11 Secondary 6 7 17 to 18 55 72-24 Tertiary 19 to 21 27 44-39 Working age 22 to 4 2 4-53 Then for the higher levels of secondary school (Forms 6 and Forms 7) the percentages at school drop to a much lower 55 percent for the lowest three deciles, contrasting with around 72 percent for the top three deciles. For those aged 19 to 21 (usually associated with tertiary education), the percentage at school is an extremely low 27 percent for the children of the families in the bottom 3 deciles, compared to around 44% for those in the top 3 deciles. What Table 1 also makes clear is that the Percentage Gap between the Bottom 3 deciles and the Top 3 deciles, increases, as one goes up the school levels, from -2% at primary levels to 39% at tertiary levels. Interventions to improve access for the poor at secondary and tertiary levels will need to examine why students are dropping at the higher levels- whether it is purely a case of inability to pay fees, the need to support families, or just inadequate academic performance preventing progression to higher levels. At the tertiary level, anecdotal evidence indicates that many of the poorest ijian children, despite obtaining adequate marks at Form 7 level (but not at the higher levels), are not able to receive scholarships from Government (through the Multi-ethnic Affairs Ministry). Donor interventions may consider scholarships at this level. Issue of access for Early Childhood Education Of critical importance to MoE and donor policy for Early Childhood Education is that preschool attendance (ages 4 to 5 in the graph) followed the patterns for access to tertiary education. A mere 28% of those in the bottom 3 deciles were in school, compared to the 45% at the top three deciles, and 37% in aggregate. A major explanatory factor is that pre-schools charge extremely high fees, which deter the children of poorer families. While government is forthright about making primary education free for all, there is no such guarantee at pre-school ages. 9
Paradoxically, the 28 Annual Report of the MoE does not even give statistics on ECE enrolments or staffing. However 28 data suggested that pre-school enrolments were only around 4% of Class 1 enrolments in aggregate, with rural areas having much lower ratios of around 2%. 6 The arguments for the MoE and donors to treat ECE on par with universal primary education, is supported by a previous case study of basic education 7. Survey evidence showed that while "preschoolers" do subsequently perform better academically, relative to those who did not did not attend pre-school (as would be expected), the differences are far more significant for children from poorer families, than for children from average or well-to-do families. The evidence also suggested that the improvements in performance for those who attended pre-schools, persisted over time. If the differentials and biases in enrolments at the ECE level is not addressed, than this would undermine efforts to ensure universal education at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels. It is therefore essential that the children from lower income backgrounds be assisted by government and donors to enjoy early childhood education, on par with the services enjoyed by those from more privileged backgrounds. Such interventions can also have a major impact on poverty alleviation and women s employment. Many pre-schools also perform the function of day-care for children much younger than 5, many as young as 2. Ensuring that the children of the poor are able to attend pre-schools also would encourage more mothers to take on employment and income generating opportunities. Available data indicates that were Government to take full financial responsibility for staffing of early childhood education (as they currently have in primary schools), provision of classrooms, and full teacher-training, this would result in a fairly large blow-out of the Education budget. This would not be tenable given the current depressed economic climate and the budgetary constraints on the MoE. Early Childhood Education with a focus on improving access for the children of the poor and investment in the required class-rooms and teacher training, could well therefore be an excellent activity in any future donor programme of assistance to the education sector in Fiji. 6 28 Situation Analysis and associated data. 7 Narsey, Wadan (24). Academic Outcomes and Resources for Basic Education in Fiji: Disparities by Region, Ethnicity, Gender and Economic Background. Institute of Education, University of the South Pacific and Vanuavou Publications. Suva, Fiji. 1