JUNE 2014 CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY, NY: DEMOGRAPHIC & ENROLLMENT STUDY CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY TEAMWORKS INTERNATIONAL

JUNE 2014 CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY, NY: DEMOGRAPHIC & ENROLLMENT STUDY CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY TEAMWORKS INTERNATIONAL

CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT OF ALBANY, NY DEMOGRAPHIC & ENROLLMENT STUDY 1 INTRODUCTION 2 KEY FINDINGS 4 POPULATION FORECASTS: DATA AND METHODOLOGY 6 DISTRICT-WIDE POPULATION FORECASTS BY AGE GROUP 7 STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECASTS: DATA AND METHODOLOGY 10 STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECASTS: 4 SCENARIOS 15 APPENDIX 1 - HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND HISTORICAL CHARTER SCHOOL ENROLLMENT CHARTS 18 APPENDIX 2 - ENROLLMENT FORECASTS BY ATTENDANCE ZONE

1 INTRODUCTION The City School District of Albany has requested TeamWorks International of Centerville, MN to provide a detailed, demographic and enrollment study across the district which will be used for the purpose of estimating future building aid on capital projects relating to facility utilization. More specifically, this report presents a series of 10-year student enrollment forecasts by grade for the City School District of Albany based on overall population forecasts. The population forecasts presented here use figures from the 2010 U.S. Census as a base-year population data set, and then extrapolate this data based on a set of significant factors. These factors include fertility rates, mortality rates, and net migration rates. by grade in a given year by the number of students in the succeeding grade in the following year based on historical student enrollments. An average of long-term and short-term survival ratios was then used to forecast future 1 st through 12 th graders. Here again, student enrollment forecasts were calculated for each attendance zone, and these figures were then used to calculate the overall student forecasts for the City School District of Albany. For the purpose of this study, 9 attendance zones were created to get a better understanding of the population dynamics that occur within each zone (Map 1). These zones are loosely based on current district elementary attendance areas. However, the attendance zones were modified due to gaps, overlaps, and general inconsistencies found with the district s current attendance boundary configuration. In addition, the attendance zone boundaries created here align with U.S. Census block boundaries, thus providing a more robust population forecast. (Note - a census block is the smallest geographic unit used by the United States Census Bureau to report demographic data). Ten-year population forecasts were developed for each attendance zone, and these totals were then rolled into a district-wide forecast. Student enrollment forecasts by grade level were then generated from the overall population forecasts. Future pre-kindergartners and future kindergartners were extracted from the overall forecasted population by taking the historical survival ratio of PK and kindergarten enrollment compared with historical resident births. Forecasted enrollments for grades 1 through 12 were then derived by employing a cohort survival methodology. With this method survival ratios were calculated by dividing the number of students

2 KEY FINDINGS The overall population within the City School District of Albany is forecasted to decline in the next 10 years The overall total number of resident births within the City School District of Albany is projected to decline in the next 10 years The Albany City School District has limited new home construction Existing home sales, as well as occupancy rates of rental properties will play a much larger role in future student enrollments than new residential construction The main driver impacting the decrease in residential births seems to primarily be the decline of non-college, childbearing female residents; particularly those between the ages of 20 39 Total PK-12 enrollment is forecasted to peak around school year 2017/2018 or 2018/2019; after which total enrollment across the district is expected to decline Total high school enrollment is forecasted to peak in school year 2023/2024; after which it is expected to decline The average historical retention loss from 9 th through 12 th grade based on the historical data on hand is approximately -35.5%. Future overall student enrollments are likely to be more impacted by the opening and closing of private/charter schools, as opposed to the growth/decline in the overall school-age population District policy changes in tackling low graduation rates will also have a great impact on future student enrollments; especially at the high school level

3 Map 1: City School District of Albany & Attendance Zones

4 POPULATION FORECASTS: DATA AND METHODOLOGY Six data sets were utilized in order to perform the population and enrollment forecasts. These data sets included: 1. A base year population (2010 U.S. Census figures) 2. Age-specific fertility rates 3. Age-specific mortality rates 4. Net migration rates 5. Historical enrollment figures by grade 6. Historical live births First, the overall 2010 U.S. Census population was divided by gender and then age. Those between the ages of 0 through 19 were reported as their own individual age cohort, while those 20 and older were divided into five-year age cohorts from ages 20-24 through ages 85+ (25-29, 30-34, 35-39, etc ). The population forecasts were then derived using the Cohort-Component Method of forecasting where population changes were projected separately for each birth cohort. Each year, a new birth cohort was added to the population by applying estimated fertility rates to the non-college female population in their child-bearing years (ages 15 45). The base population was then advanced each year by using estimated agespecific mortality rates and net migration rates. Age specific fertility rates were derived by calculating average fertility rates for Albany County from 2006 through 2012 for each age cohort of females in their child bearing years (Table 1). Historical fertility rate data was obtained from the New York State Department of Health Vital Statistics. It was assumed that average fertility rates would remain relatively constant in the future, and these average fertility rates were utilized throughout the entire forecast for each age cohort. TABLE 1: AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATES PER 1,000 FEMALES Year 15-17 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45 2006 12.4 22.2 49.2 78.7 91.8 51.5 8.6 0.5 2007 14.0 24.9 44.2 87.6 93.1 48.0 11.0 0.6 2008 11.7 21.2 46.5 79.5 93.1 50.6 10.8 0.4 2009 12.7 19.7 38.3 95.4 133.1 50.8 10.4 0.6 2010 9.7 22.8 38.5 78.5 101.6 50.9 11.2 0.7 2011 8.7 24.1 37.9 80.1 104.1 51.5 11.5 0.5 2012 9.7 22.8 38.5 78.5 101.6 50.9 11.2 0.7 Average 11.3 22.5 41.9 82.6 102.6 50.6 10.7 0.6 *Data Source: New York Department of Health Vital Statistics Nationwide the overall total fertility rate has been declining since the post World War II baby boom. This has further been exacerbated by the recent Great Recession as high unemployment has derailed many young people s plans to start families. In addition, there seems to be a trend among younger adults to postpone having children. Forty years ago, fertility rates among women in their 20s were significantly higher than those of women in their 30s. In 1970, there were 168 births per 1,000 women ages 20 to 24, compared with 73 births per 1,000 women ages 30 to 34. However, this gap has steadily narrowed over time. By 2009 for the first time in U.S. history fertility rates among women ages 30 to 34 (97.5 births per 1,000 women) exceeded those for women ages 20 to 24 (96 births per 1,000 women). These patterns seem to be indicative of those that are occurring in Albany.

5 Despite the overall decline in births, overall fertility rates tend to decline slowly over time, and they seem to have a secondary impact on the total number of births in a particular region. In Albany, the main driver in the total number of births seems to be impacted primarily by the total number of child-bearing female residents; particularly those between the ages of 20 39. Age specific mortality rates were derived by taking average mortality rates for Albany County from 2006 through 2011 for each age cohort (Table 2). Here again, historical mortality rates were obtained from the New York State Department of Health Vital Statistics. Average mortality rates were assumed to remain constant into the future, and were applied to each age cohort throughout the entire forecast. As with fertility rates; mortality rates tend to change slowly over time, and are mostly impacted by the local population over the age of 65. Net migration data was compiled by using Internal Revenue reports for Albany County from 2006 through 2010 (Table 3). The IRS is able to compare tax return addresses from one year to the next and generate data on the relocation patterns of tax filers and their dependents migrating to or from a particular county. It should be noted that the number of dependents identified on an individual's tax return in consecutive years may vary over time (births, death, marriage, dependency status, etc ). In addition, the data does not include the number of residents who were either filing a tax return for the very first time, did not file a tax return, or were not claimed as exemptions on another tax return. However, this information is sufficient in determining overall patterns of migration. Net migration data was then compared to yearly total population data obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau to calculate an overall migration rate for each year. The average migration rate (-4.77) was utilized throughout the entire forecast. Thus, Albany experiences an average overall out-migration of 4.77 people per 1,000 residents on an annual basis. TABLE 2: AGE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY RATES PER 1,000 PEOPLE AGE GROUPS Year 0-9 10-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ 2006 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.7 3.6 7.9 21.1 48.7 133.7 2007 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.6 3.5 7.6 18.3 54.3 137.3 2008 1.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.5 3.8 7.8 19.0 54.3 137.2 2009 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.4 4.0 8.0 18.8 47.2 135.8 2010 1.0 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.2 3.6 7.3 17.5 45.4 137.9 2011 1.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.2 3.4 7.6 19.4 47.8 142.8 Average 1.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 3.7 7.7 19.0 49.6 137.5 *Data Source: New York Department of Health Vital Statistics TABLE 3: MIGRATION RATES PER 1,000 PEOPLE Year In-Migration Out-Migration Net-Migration Total Migration Rate Population per 1,000 2006 12,565 13,983-1,418 303,997-4.66 2007 12,763 14,545-1,782 303,858-5.86 2008 12,625 13,269-644 303,739-2.12 2009 11,456 13,620-2,164 304,733-7.10 2010 11,702 12,946-1,244 304,204-4.09 Average 12,222 13,673-1,450 304,106-4.77 *Data Source: Internal Revenue Service & U.S. Censu Bureau

6 DISTRICT-WIDE POPULATION FORECASTS BY AGE GROUP Table 4 gives a summary of the total forecasted population and age profile that comprises Albany City School District boundary. Data from 2010 is based on the 2010 U.S. Census. Data for the years 2013 and 2023 are based on forecasts provided by TeamWorks, International using the methodology outlined above. Overall, it is estimated that the total population will decline by -1.1% in 10 years. If we summarize this chart even further into 3 separate age groups of 0 19 year olds, 20 54 year olds and 55 years old and greater, we find that the total population for these particular groups in 2013 was 22,398, 49,701, and 25,394, respectively. Thus, 20 54 year olds made up 54.7% of the population followed by those ages 0-19 (22.8%), while those 55 and older made up the remaining 23.0% of the total population. Since 2010, 0 19 year olds and those ages 20 54 years old have decreased by -2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. In the same time period those over the age of 54 have increased by 4.9%. Ten-year forecasts estimate that these trends are expected to continue. Those ages 0 19 are expected to decline another -5.5%%, while those ages 20-54 are estimated to decline by -6.7%. However, those 55 and older are again expected to see gains, growing another 17.3% in 10 years. It is estimated that the age group over the age of 54 is the only age group that will see an increase in the overall share of the total population between 2013 and 2023. By 2023, those 55 and older will comprise 26.4% of the total population (up from 22.2% in 2013). Those 19 and younger will make up a smaller share of the total population (22.0% from 23.0% in 2013), while 20 54 year olds will account for 51.6% of the total population (down from 54.7% in 2013). These trends reflect the overall trends seen throughout the rest of the country as the nation s baby boom generation enters into retirement years. TABLE 4: POPULATION AND AGE PROFILE 2010 2013 2023 2013-2023 Ages Number % Number % Number % % Change 0-4 5,375 5.5% 5,176 5.3% 5,061 5.3% -2.2% 5-9 4,747 4.9% 4,714 4.8% 4,546 4.7% -3.6% 10-14 4,500 4.6% 4,478 4.6% 4,207 4.4% -6.1% 15-19 8,288 8.5% 8,030 8.3% 7,352 7.6% -8.4% 20-24 15,684 16.0% 15,352 15.8% 13,518 14.0% -11.9% 25-34 16,609 17.0% 16,725 17.2% 16,017 16.6% -4.2% 35-44 10,654 10.9% 10,507 10.8% 10,797 11.2% 2.8% 45-54 11,370 11.6% 10,691 11.0% 9,369 9.7% -12.4% 55-64 9,741 10.0% 10,224 10.5% 10,205 10.6% -0.2% 65-74 5,153 5.3% 5,775 5.9% 8,884 9.2% 53.8% 75-84 3,619 3.7% 3,436 3.5% 4,004 4.2% 16.5% 85+ 2,116 2.2% 2,207 2.3% 2,301 2.4% 4.3% Totals 97,856 100.0% 97,315 100.0% 96,261 100.0% -1.1% *Data Source: 2010 Data form U.S. Census & 2013, 2023 Data Forecast By TeamWorks, International

7 STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECASTS: DATA AND METHODOLOGY It was first necessary to forecast overall future births in the region in order to forecast pre-kindergartners and kindergarteners that might potentially be attending Albany City Schools in the next 10 years. Historical resident birth data for the district was obtained from the New York State Department of Health Vital Statistics for the years 2003 through 2012 (Table 5). The total number of births fluctuated in that time from a low of 1,199 in 2003 to a high of 1,316 in 2007. Resident births for the years 2013 through 2020 were forecasted based on the overall population forecasts derived from the methodology described above. Forecasts for potential pre-kindergarteners and kindergarteners were then obtained by applying average historical survival ratios to projected birth figures to obtain enrollment figures for both PK and K. The survival ratio for kindergarten enrollment was derived by dividing the number of kindergarten students in a given year by the total number of births five years earlier. Likewise, the survival ratio of pre-kindergarten students in a given year was obtained by dividing the total number of births 4 years earlier. An average of both short-range and long-range survival ratios was then applied to the total number of forecasted births to get enrollment estimates for potential PK and Kindergarten students. Forecasts for grades 1 through 12 were then obtained using a cohort survival method where survival ratios were derived by dividing the number of students in any given year by the number of students in the succeeding grade in the following year. Here again an average of both short-range and long-range survival ratios were utilized to forecast student enrollments. This ratio was then applied to the total number of students in a particular grade in a given year to forecast the total number of students in the succeeding grade in the following year. Table 6 reflects historical student enrolment data by grade from school year 2006/2007 through the current school year of 2013/2014 for the City School District of Albany. Grade to grade survival ratios used in the enrollment forecasts are also reported here. Since 2006/2007, total PK-12 enrollment has grown by 2.3% from 8,766 to 8,967 total students. However, all of this growth can be attributed to the growth in PK, which grew 91.6% in the same time period. In fact, declines were seen across the board for grades K-12 (-1.1%), grades K-5 (-18.9%), grades 6-8 (-5.5%), and grades 9-12 (-17.0%). However, since school year 2010/2011 all grade levels with the exception of grades 9-12 have experienced a rebound in enrollment. These recent increases can most likely be attributed to the changing private and charter school dynamics occurring within the district; especially those related to the closing of New Covenant Charter School at the end of school year 2009/2010. Thus, future overall student enrollments are likely to be more impacted by the opening and closing of private/charter schools, as opposed to the growth/decline in the overall school-age population. Appendix 1 presents charts reflecting the historical public school enrollment versus the historical charter school enrollment by different grade levels. In addition, the biggest retention of students occurs between the 8 th and 9 th grades where the average retention rate is 111.7%. This is likely due to the fact that families with students attending private/charter schools have opted to finish high school with the City School District of Albany. However, from 9 th through 12 th grades student retention drops from year to year. For example, in 2006/2007 there were 937 students enrolled in the 9 th grade. However, by the time they should be seniors (2009/2010) there were only 503 total 12 th graders enrolled. This represents an overall loss of -46.3%. The average retention loss from 9 th -12 th grade based on the historical data on hand is approximately -35.5%. Thus, district policy changes in tackling low graduation rates will also have a great impact on future student enrollments; especially at the high school level.

8 TABLE 5: RESIDENT LIVE BIRTHS Number of Year to Enter Number of Pre- Pre- Year of Year to Enter Kindergarten # of Births Kindergarten Pre- Kindergarten Kindergarten Birth Kindergarten Survival Ratio Students Kindergarten Students Survival Ratio 2003 1,199 2008 560 0.467 2006 321 0.268 2004 1,179 2009 668 0.567 2007 317 0.269 2005 1,254 2010 715 0.570 2008 586 0.467 2006 1,211 2011 756 0.624 2009 717 0.592 2007 1,316 2012 784 0.596 2010 591 0.449 2008 1,261 2013 802 0.636 2011 591 0.469 2009 1,263 2014 748 0.592 2012 591 0.468 2010 1,228 2015 727* 0.592 2013 615 0.501 2011 1,211 2016 717* 0.592 2014 555** 0.458 2012 1,302 2017 771* 0.592 2015 596** 0.458 FORECASTED LIVE BIRTHS 2013 1,247 2018 738* 0.592 2016 571** 0.458 2014 1,266 2019 749* 0.592 2017 580** 0.458 2015 1,210 2020 716* 0.592 2018 554** 0.458 2016 1,176 2021 696* 0.592 2019 539** 0.458 2017 1,146 2022 678* 0.592 2020 525** 0.458 2018 1,122 2023 664* 0.592 2021 514** 0.458 2019 1,064 2024 630* 0.592 2022 487** 0.458 2020 1,010 2025 598* 0.592 2023 463** 0.458 *Projected Kindergateners **Projected Pre-Kindergarteners ***Data Source: New York Department of Health Vital Statistics

9 TABLE 6: COMBINED HISTORICAL STUDENT ENROLLMENTS & SURVIVAL RATIOS Historical Enrollment Grade 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 Survival Ratio Grade to Grade PK 321 317 586 717 591 591 591 615 0.458 Birth to Pre-K K 638 594 560 668 715 756 784 802 0.592 Birth to K 1 669 605 585 612 684 711 745 760 0.977 K to 1st 2 655 651 558 589 659 656 683 715 0.964 1st to 2nd 3 649 627 618 615 664 664 641 686 1.037 2nd to 3rd 4 635 651 604 634 703 638 666 646 0.994 3rd to 4th 5 528 580 602 574 612 603 616 646 0.937 4th to 5th 6 473 475 511 568 545 534 578 580 0.900 5th to 6th 7 751 554 542 532 577 518 575 607 1.020 6th to 7th 8 691 684 564 540 544 566 583 622 1.047 7th to 8th 9 937 949 899 791 630 714 704 707 1.117 8th to 9th 10 755 727 735 728 621 483 533 591 0.825 9th to 10th 11 606 600 521 576 579 482 405 507 0.845 10th to 11th 12 458 539 513 503 652 513 522 483 0.975 11th to 12th Total PK-12 8,766 8,553 8,398 8,647 8,776 8,429 8,626 8,967 Total K-12 8,445 8,236 7,812 7,930 8,185 7,838 8,035 8,352 Total K-5 3,774 3,708 3,527 3,692 4,037 4,028 4,135 4,255 Total 6-8 1,915 1,713 1,617 1,640 1,666 1,618 1,736 1,809 Total 9-12 2,756 2,815 2,668 2,598 2,482 2,192 2,164 2,288 Survival Ratios

10 STUDENT ENROLLMENT FORECASTS: 4 SCENARIOS Tables 7 10 present a series of 10-year student enrollment forecasts for the Albany Public School District. Each scenario accounts for a different set of factors that may impact student enrollment in the future. All 4 scenarios utilize the grade by grade survival ratios described above. In addition, forecasted pre-kindergarteners and kindergarteners are based on the overall population forecasts described earlier in the report, and these are in turn are cycled through the forecast from year to year. Tables 11 19 in Appendix 2 present enrollment forecasts by grade for each of the 9 attendance zones (Maps 2 10 in Appendix 2). Table 7 presents an as-is scenario where future student enrollments are impacted only by forecasted residential births and average survival ratios. This scenario estimates that the overall PK-12 enrollment will peak in 2017/2018 and total K-12 enrollment peaks in 2020-2021. The combined high school enrollment is estimated to top out in 2023/2024, after which it will begin to decline to 2,485, 2,435 and 2,429 total students in the following 3 school years of 2024/2025, 2025/2026, 2026/2027, respectively. (*Note - these figures were calculated for each of the 4 scenarios to get a better understanding of longerterm high school enrollment dynamics. These figures are based on current average survival ratios and are not shown in the tables). Table 8 factors in part of the City School District of Albany s longterm strategic plan where it hopes to achieve a 90% graduation rate for all students. Thus, beginning with the freshman class of 2014/2015, table 8 assumes that 90% of all incoming 9th graders will be enrolled as seniors four years later. Freshman students are cycled through the forecast at 94%, 92%, and 90% survival ratios for grades 10, 11 and 12, respectively. Here again, the overall PK-12 total enrollment is expected to peak in school year 2017/2018, and the combined high school enrollment is expected to peak in 2023/2024. In the 3 years following 2023/2024, high school enrollments are estimated to be approximately 2,737, 2,512, and 2,429, respectively. Table 9 presents a scenario where Brighter Choice Boys & Girls Middle Charter Schools close after school year 2014/2015, Green Tech High Charter School closes at the end of the 2015/2016 school year, and Albany Leadership High closes after the 2017/2018 school year. Here, it was assumed that 100% of the current students attending charter schools would enroll at with the Albany City School District upon their closing. Once all current students were cycled through the forecast, a percentage was extracted from the overall population forecast to reflect students who might have attended both charter schools had they remained opened. This figure was then added to the overall forecast for the City School District of Albany. This scenario estimates that overall PK-12 enrollment will peak in school year 2018/2019 where there will be approximately 10,326 total students. Grades 9-12 are again expected to peak in 2023/2024 to 3,171 students. Grades 9-12 are then expected to decline in the 3 subsequent school years to 2,980, 2,861, and 2,718 total students. Table 10 reflects enrollment forecasts that include both the impact of charter school closings and assumes that the district is able to obtain graduation rates of 90%. Here, the total PK-12 enrollment is expected to climax in school year 2018/2019 to approximately 10,736 students, while grades 9-12 are expected to once again peak in school year 2023,/2024 where high school enrollment is expected to top out at approximately 3,824 total students. As with the previous 3 scenarios, high school enrollment is expected to dip to 3,424, 3,058, and 2,861 in the following 3 years.

11 TABLE 7: FORCASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS - 'AS-IS' SCENARIO Total Enrollment Grade 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 PK 555 596 571 580 554 539 525 514 487 472 K 748 727 717 771 738 749 716 696 678 664 1 783 730 710 700 753 721 731 699 680 662 2 733 755 704 684 675 726 695 705 674 655 3 741 759 783 730 709 700 752 720 731 699 4 682 737 755 778 726 705 695 748 716 727 5 605 639 690 707 729 680 661 652 701 671 6 581 545 575 621 637 656 612 595 587 631 7 592 593 556 587 634 650 669 624 607 598 8 635 619 621 582 614 664 680 701 653 635 9 728 743 724 726 681 718 776 795 820 764 10 583 600 613 597 599 561 592 640 656 676 11 500 493 507 518 505 506 474 501 541 554 12 494 487 480 494 505 492 494 463 488 528 Total PK-12 8,960 9,023 9,006 9,075 9,059 9,067 9,072 9,053 9,019 8,936 Total K-12 8,405 8,427 8,435 8,495 8,505 8,528 8,547 8539 8,532 8,464 Total K-5 4,292 4,347 4,359 4,370 4,330 4,281 4,250 4,220 4,180 4,078 Total 6-8 1,808 1,757 1,752 1,790 1,885 1,970 1,961 1920 1,847 1,864 Total 9-12 2,305 2,323 2,324 2,335 2,290 2,277 2,336 2,399 2,505 2,522

12 TABLE 8: FORCASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS - 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total Enrollment Grade 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 PK 555 596 571 580 554 539 525 514 487 472 K 748 727 717 771 738 749 716 696 678 664 1 783 730 710 700 753 721 731 699 680 662 2 733 755 704 684 675 726 695 705 674 655 3 741 759 783 730 709 700 752 720 731 699 4 682 737 755 778 726 705 695 748 716 727 5 605 639 690 707 729 680 661 652 701 671 6 581 545 575 621 637 656 612 595 587 631 7 592 593 556 587 634 650 669 624 607 598 8 635 619 621 582 614 664 680 701 653 635 9 728 743 724 726 681 718 776 795 820 764 10 583 684 699 681 683 640 675 730 748 770 11 500 493 669 684 666 668 626 661 714 732 12 494 487 480 655 669 652 654 613 647 699 Total PK-12 8,960 9,107 9,254 9,486 9,468 9,468 9,467 9,453 9,443 9,379 Total K-12 8,405 8,511 8,683 8,906 8,914 8,929 8,942 8939 8,956 8,907 Total K-5 4,292 4,347 4,359 4,370 4,330 4,281 4,250 4,220 4,180 4,078 Total 6-8 1,808 1,757 1,752 1,790 1,885 1,970 1,961 1920 1,847 1,864 Total 9-12 2,305 2,407 2,572 2,746 2,699 2,678 2,731 2,799 2,929 2,965

13 TABLE 9: FORCASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS - CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total Enrollment Grade 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 PK 555 596 571 580 554 539 525 514 487 472 K 748 727 717 771 738 749 716 696 678 664 1 783 730 710 700 753 721 731 699 680 662 2 733 755 704 684 675 726 695 705 674 655 3 741 759 783 730 709 700 752 720 731 699 4 682 737 755 778 726 705 695 748 716 727 5 605 733 782 795 813 763 743 735 784 755 6 581 618 660 704 715 732 687 669 661 706 7 592 692 629 673 718 730 747 701 683 674 8 635 730 720 655 704 752 764 782 733 715 9 728 844 922 911 951 982 1039 1055 1076 1053 10 583 666 787 780 828 797 810 857 870 887 11 500 493 636 681 726 715 685 684 724 735 12 494 487 547 622 716 711 700 669 667 706 Total PK-12 8,960 9,567 9,923 10,064 10,326 10,322 10,289 10,234 10,164 10,110 Total K-12 8,405 8,971 9,352 9,484 9,772 9,783 9,764 9720 9,677 9,638 Total K-5 4,292 4,441 4,451 4,458 4,414 4,364 4,332 4,303 4,263 4,162 Total 6-8 1,808 2,040 2,009 2,032 2,137 2,214 2,198 2152 2,077 2,095 Total 9-12 2,305 2,490 2,892 2,994 3,221 3,205 3,234 3,265 3,337 3,381

14 TABLE 10: FORCASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS - COMBINED SCENARIO Total Enrollment Grade 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 PK 555 596 571 580 554 539 525 514 487 472 K 748 727 717 771 738 749 716 696 678 664 1 783 730 710 700 753 721 731 699 680 662 2 733 755 704 684 675 726 695 705 674 655 3 741 759 783 730 709 700 752 720 731 699 4 682 737 755 778 726 705 695 748 716 727 5 605 733 782 795 813 763 743 735 784 755 6 581 618 660 704 715 732 687 669 661 706 7 592 692 629 673 718 730 747 701 683 674 8 635 730 720 655 704 752 764 782 733 715 9 728 844 922 911 951 982 1039 1055 1076 1053 10 583 750 872 863 912 875 893 946 961 982 11 500 493 798 846 888 877 836 845 897 912 12 494 487 547 782 880 871 860 819 826 877 Total PK-12 8,960 9,651 10,170 10,472 10,736 10,722 10,683 10,634 10,587 10,553 Total K-12 8,405 9,055 9,599 9,892 10,182 10,183 10,158 10120 10,100 10,081 Total K-5 4,292 4,441 4,451 4,458 4,414 4,364 4,332 4,303 4,263 4,162 Total 6-8 1,808 2,040 2,009 2,032 2,137 2,214 2,198 2152 2,077 2,095 Total 9-12 2,305 2,574 3,139 3,402 3,631 3,605 3,628 3,665 3,760 3,824

15 APPENDIX 1 HISTORICAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND HISTORICAL CHARTER SCHOOL ENROLLMENT CHARTS

16 4500 4000 3500 3774 3708 3527 3692 4037 4028 4135 4255 3000 2500 2000 Historical K-5 Enrollment Public K-5 Charter K-5 1500 1000 976 1149 1294 1416 1132 1242 1214 1209 500 2100 1900 1700 1915 1713 1617 1640 1666 1618 1736 1809 1500 1300 1100 900 Historical 6-8 Enrollment Public 6-8 Charter 6-8 700 500 359 394 442 521 568 534 573 300 206 100

17 3000 2500 2756 2815 2668 2598 2482 2192 2164 2288 2000 1500 Historical 9-12 Enrollment Public 9-12 1000 500 0 0 0 76 132 365 478 524 622 Charter 9-12 9000 8000 8445 8236 7812 7930 8185 7838 8035 8352 7000 6000 Historical K-12 Enrollment 5000 4000 Public K-12 Charter K-12 3000 2000 1182 1508 1764 1990 2018 2288 2272 2404 1000

18 APPENDIX 2 ENROLLMENT FORECASTS BY ATTENDANCE ZONE

19 Map 2: Attendance Zone #1 & Current Student Distribution

20 TABLE 11: ATTENDANCE ZONE 1 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK-12 349 351 350 353 353 354 355 354 353 351 Total K-5 150 152 153 153 152 150 149 148 146 143 Total 6-8 80 77 77 79 83 87 86 84 81 82 Total 9-12 101 102 102 103 101 100 103 106 110 111 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK-12 349 354 361 371 371 372 372 372 372 370 Total K-5 150 152 153 153 152 150 149 148 146 143 Total 6-8 80 77 77 79 83 87 86 84 81 82 Total 9-12 101 106 113 121 119 118 120 123 129 130 CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK-12 349 382 408 415 436 436 435 432 429 429 Total K-5 150 158 158 158 156 155 153 152 151 147 Total 6-8 80 93 92 93 97 101 100 98 94 95 Total 9-12 101 112 140 146 165 164 165 166 168 171 COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK-12 349 385 419 433 454 454 452 450 448 448 Total K-5 150 158 158 158 156 155 153 152 151 147 Total 6-8 80 93 92 93 97 101 100 98 94 95 Total 9-12 101 115 151 164 183 181 182 183 187 190

21 Map 3: Attendance Zone #2 & Current Student Distribution

22 TABLE 12: ATTENDANCE ZONE 2 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK-12 912 918 916 924 922 924 923 920 914 905 Total K-5 446 452 453 455 450 445 442 439 435 424 Total 6-8 195 190 189 193 204 213 212 207 199 201 Total 9-12 205 207 207 208 204 203 208 213 223 224 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK-12 912 926 938 960 959 959 958 955 952 944 Total K-5 446 452 453 455 450 445 442 439 435 424 Total 6-8 195 190 189 193 204 213 212 207 199 201 Total 9-12 205 214 229 244 240 238 243 249 261 264 CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK-12 912 1004 1049 1068 1107 1106 1099 1090 1080 1074 Total K-5 446 467 468 468 464 458 455 452 448 437 Total 6-8 195 235 230 232 244 251 249 244 236 238 Total 9-12 205 233 285 300 335 333 334 334 339 344 COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK-12 912 1012 1071 1104 1143 1141 1135 1126 1118 1114 Total K-5 446 467 468 468 464 458 455 452 448 437 Total 6-8 195 235 230 232 244 251 249 244 236 238 Total 9-12 205 241 307 337 371 369 369 370 377 383

23 Map 4: Attendance Zone #3 & Current Student Distribution

24 TABLE 13: ATTENDANCE ZONE 3 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK-12 1232 1242 1239 1248 1245 1246 1248 1245 1241 1230 Total K-5 567 574 575 577 572 565 561 557 552 538 Total 6-8 248 241 240 245 258 270 269 263 253 255 Total 9-12 332 335 335 336 330 328 336 345 361 363 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK-12 1232 1254 1274 1307 1304 1304 1304 1303 1302 1294 Total K-5 567 574 575 577 572 565 561 557 552 538 Total 6-8 248 241 240 245 258 270 269 263 253 255 Total 9-12 332 347 370 395 389 386 393 403 422 427 CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK-12 1232 1328 1373 1395 1423 1422 1418 1410 1401 1393 Total K-5 567 589 590 591 585 578 574 570 565 552 Total 6-8 248 286 281 284 298 309 306 300 290 292 Total 9-12 332 361 414 430 454 452 456 460 471 476 COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK-12 1232 1340 1409 1454 1482 1480 1474 1467 1462 1456 Total K-5 567 589 590 591 585 578 574 570 565 552 Total 6-8 248 286 281 284 298 309 306 300 290 292 Total 9-12 332 373 450 489 513 510 513 517 532 540

25 Map 5: Attendance Zone #4 & Current Student Distribution

26 TABLE 14: ATTENDANCE ZONE 4 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK-12 1568 1577 1575 1587 1585 1588 1591 1589 1585 1572 Total K-5 708 717 719 721 714 706 701 696 690 673 Total 6-8 335 325 324 331 349 364 363 355 342 345 Total 9-12 442 446 446 449 440 437 449 461 481 484 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK-12 1568 1593 1622 1666 1664 1665 1667 1665 1666 1657 Total K-5 708 717 719 721 714 706 701 696 690 673 Total 6-8 335 325 324 331 349 364 363 355 342 345 Total 9-12 442 462 494 527 518 514 524 537 562 569 CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK-12 1568 1651 1720 1742 1794 1794 1792 1785 1774 1768 Total K-5 708 730 732 733 726 718 713 708 701 684 Total 6-8 335 364 359 364 383 398 395 387 373 376 Total 9-12 442 469 544 558 602 599 606 614 628 637 COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK-12 1568 1667 1768 1820 1873 1871 1867 1861 1856 1853 Total K-5 708 730 732 733 726 718 713 708 701 684 Total 6-8 335 364 359 364 383 398 395 387 373 376 Total 9-12 442 485 592 637 681 676 682 691 709 722

27 Map 6: Attendance Zone #5 & Current Student Distribution

28 TABLE 15: ATTENDANCE ZONE 5 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK-12 1022 1028 1027 1035 1033 1035 1035 1032 1027 1017 Total K-5 502 509 510 511 507 501 497 494 489 477 Total 6-8 213 207 207 211 222 232 231 227 218 220 Total 9-12 247 249 249 250 245 244 250 257 268 270 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK-12 1022 1037 1053 1078 1077 1077 1077 1075 1072 1065 Total K-5 502 509 510 511 507 501 497 494 489 477 Total 6-8 213 207 207 211 222 232 231 227 218 220 Total 9-12 247 258 275 294 289 287 292 299 313 317 CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK-12 1022 1112 1161 1181 1211 1211 1205 1197 1187 1181 Total K-5 502 523 524 525 520 514 510 506 502 490 Total 6-8 213 251 246 248 261 270 268 262 253 256 Total 9-12 247 274 330 345 371 369 371 373 380 385 COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK-12 1022 1121 1188 1224 1255 1253 1247 1239 1232 1228 Total K-5 502 523 524 525 520 514 510 506 502 490 Total 6-8 213 251 246 248 261 270 268 262 253 256 Total 9-12 247 283 357 389 415 412 413 416 425 432

29 Map 7: Attendance Zone #6 & Current Student Distribution

30 TABLE 16: ATTENDANCE ZONE 6 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK-12 978 985 984 991 989 989 990 987 983 974 Total K-5 489 496 497 498 494 488 485 481 476 465 Total 6-8 188 183 182 186 196 205 204 200 192 194 Total 9-12 242 244 244 245 240 239 245 252 263 265 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK-12 978 994 1010 1034 1032 1031 1031 1029 1028 1020 Total K-5 489 496 497 498 494 488 485 481 476 465 Total 6-8 188 183 182 186 196 205 204 200 192 194 Total 9-12 242 253 270 288 283 281 287 294 307 311 CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK-12 978 1095 1157 1179 1224 1222 1215 1205 1195 1190 Total K-5 489 515 515 516 511 505 501 498 493 482 Total 6-8 188 240 234 235 247 254 252 246 239 241 Total 9-12 242 278 347 367 408 406 406 406 411 417 COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK-12 978 1104 1183 1222 1267 1264 1256 1247 1239 1236 Total K-5 489 515 515 516 511 505 501 498 493 482 Total 6-8 188 240 234 235 247 254 252 246 239 241 Total 9-12 242 286 373 410 451 448 447 448 456 464

31 Map 8: Attendance Zone #7 & Current Student Distribution

32 TABLE 17: ATTENDANCE ZONE 7 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK-12 928 933 932 939 939 942 942 939 933 925 Total K-5 438 443 445 446 442 437 434 430 426 416 Total 6-8 215 209 208 213 224 234 233 228 220 222 Total 9-12 219 221 221 222 217 216 222 228 238 240 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK-12 928 941 955 978 978 980 979 977 973 967 Total K-5 438 443 445 446 442 437 434 430 426 416 Total 6-8 215 209 208 213 224 234 233 228 220 222 Total 9-12 219 229 244 261 256 254 259 266 278 282 CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK-12 928 978 1007 1020 1049 1050 1047 1041 1033 1027 Total K-5 438 451 452 453 448 443 440 437 433 423 Total 6-8 215 232 229 233 245 254 253 247 238 241 Total 9-12 219 234 268 276 300 299 302 305 312 316 COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK-12 928 985 1030 1059 1088 1088 1085 1079 1073 1069 Total K-5 438 451 452 453 448 443 440 437 433 423 Total 6-8 215 232 229 233 245 254 253 247 238 241 Total 9-12 219 242 291 315 339 337 339 343 352 358

33 Map 9: Attendance Zone #8 & Current Student Distribution

34 TABLE 18: ATTENDANCE ZONE 8 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK-12 1278 1289 1286 1296 1292 1292 1292 1290 1285 1273 Total K-5 631 639 641 643 636 629 625 620 614 599 Total 6-8 237 230 230 234 247 258 257 251 242 244 Total 9-12 327 330 330 332 325 323 332 341 356 358 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK-12 1278 1300 1321 1354 1350 1348 1348 1346 1345 1335 Total K-5 631 639 641 643 636 629 625 620 614 599 Total 6-8 237 230 230 234 247 258 257 251 242 244 Total 9-12 327 342 365 390 383 380 388 397 416 421 CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK-12 1278 1308 1327 1339 1356 1355 1354 1350 1343 1333 Total K-5 631 642 644 646 640 632 628 623 617 602 Total 6-8 237 240 239 243 256 267 265 260 250 253 Total 9-12 327 336 358 363 377 375 382 390 403 407 COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK-12 1278 1320 1362 1397 1414 1411 1410 1407 1403 1396 Total K-5 631 642 644 646 640 632 628 623 617 602 Total 6-8 237 240 239 243 256 267 265 260 250 253 Total 9-12 327 348 394 421 435 432 438 446 463 470

35 Map 10: Attendance Zone #9 & Current Student Distribution

36 TABLE 19: ATTENDANCE ZONE 9 - FORECASTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS AS IS' SCENARIO Total PK-12 689 696 694 699 695 693 694 693 692 685 Total K-5 356 361 362 363 359 355 353 350 347 338 Total 6-8 98 95 95 97 102 106 106 104 100 101 Total 9-12 189 190 191 192 188 187 192 197 205 207 90% GRADUATION RATE SCENARIO Total PK-12 693 707 719 737 733 730 731 730 731 725 Total K-5 361 365 366 367 364 360 357 354 351 342 Total 6-8 98 95 95 97 102 106 106 104 100 101 Total 9-12 189 197 211 225 221 220 224 229 240 243 CHARTER SCHOOL SCENARIO Total PK-12 689 705 715 721 722 720 720 719 717 711 Total K-5 356 362 363 364 361 357 354 352 348 340 Total 6-8 98 100 99 101 106 110 110 108 104 105 Total 9-12 189 193 205 207 209 208 213 217 225 227 COMBINED SCENARIO Total PK-12 693 716 740 759 760 757 757 756 756 751 Total K-5 361 367 368 369 365 361 358 356 352 344 Total 6-8 98 100 99 101 106 110 110 108 104 105 Total 9-12 189 200 226 241 243 241 245 250 260 264