Participation Rates for Entrants to Scottish Higher Education in

Participation Rates for Entrants to Scottish Higher Education in 2012-13 Issue date: Reference: Summary: FAO: 28 October 2014 SFC/ST/07/2014 To provide the latest Initial Participation Rates and Young Participation Rates for Higher Education in Scotland. Principals and directors of Scotland s colleges and universities Further information: Contact: Stephen Riddell Job title: Policy/Analysis Officer Department: Funding Policy Tel: 0131 313 6658 Email: sriddell@sfc.ac.uk The UK Statistics Authority has designated these statistics as National Statistics, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. Scottish Funding Council Apex 2 97 Haymarket Terrace Edinburgh EH12 5HD T 0131 313 6500 F 0131 313 6501 www.sfc.ac.uk

Contents: 1. Key points 4 1.1 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (2006-07 to 2012-13) 4 1.2 Young Participation Rate (2006 cohort to 2012 cohort) 5 2. Introduction 7 2.1 Introduction and background 7 2.2 The future of this publication 7 3. Methodological notes 9 3.1 Data sources, coverage and definition of entrants 9 3.2 Scottish Higher Education Initial Participation Rate 10 3.3 Scottish Young Participation Rate 12 3.4 Population Estimates 13 3.5 Analysis by Local Authority 13 3.6 Entrants from deprived areas of Scotland 14 3.7 Level of Study 14 4. Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR) 15 4.1 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Gender and Mode of Study 15 4.2 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Age 17 4.3 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Institution Type 18 4.4 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Level of Study 19 4.5 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Deprivation 20 4.6 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Local Authority 20 4.7 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate in Scotland compared to Higher Education Initial Participation Rate in England 22 5 Young Participation Rate (YPR) 27 5.1 Scottish Young Participation Rate 27 5.2 Young Participation Rate by Gender 27 5.3 Young Participation Rate by Mode of Study 28 5.4 Young Participation Rate by Level of Study 28 5.5 Young Participation Rate by Institution Type 29 5.6 Young Participation Rate by Local Authority and Institution Type 30 2

Index of Tables and Figures Tables Index: Table A: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate Calculation 11 Table B: Young Participation Rate 2012 12 Table C: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by gender 15 and mode of study, 2006-07 to 2012-13 Table D: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate calculation, 2011-12 and 2012-13 17 Table E: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by institution type: 2006-07 to 2012-13 18 Table F: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by level of study: 2006-07 to 2012-13 19 Table G: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by deprivation: 2006-07 to 2012-13 20 Table H: Local Authority total Higher Education Initial Participation Rate and by institution type: 2012-13 21 Table I: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate for English domiciled first time participants in Higher Education Courses at UK Higher Education institutions and English, Welsh and Scottish Further Education Colleges: 2006-07 to 2011-12 23 Table J: Young Participation Rate: 2006 to 2012 Cohort 27 Table K: Young Participation Rate by Gender: 2006 to 2012 Cohort 27 Table L: Young Participation Rate by Mode of Study: 2006 to 2012 Cohort 28 Table M: Young Participation Rate by Level of Study: 2006 to 2012 Cohort 28 Table N: Young Participation Rate by Institution Type: 2006 to 2012 29 Cohort Table O: Young Participation Rate by Institution Type: 2012 Cohort 30 by Home Local Authority Figures Index: Figure 1: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate: England and 24 Scotland 2006-07 to 2012-13 Figure 2: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Gender: England and Scotland 2006-07 to 2012-13 25 Figure 3: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Mode of 25 Study: 2006-07 to 2012-13 3

1 Key points This publication covers two measures of participation of entrants; the Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR) and the Young Participation Rate (YPR). Both of these measures include full-time and part-time Scottish-domiciled initial entrants to higher education level study at Scottish and rest of UK (ruk) Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) and Scottish Further Education Colleges (FECs). These estimates are presented alongside a historical time series. 1.1 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (2006-07 to 2012-13) The Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR) roughly equates to the probability that a 16 year old will participate in Higher Education by age 30. The Scottish HEIPR is a measure of participation of all initial entrants 1 aged between 16 and 30 (inclusive). The measure does not show the proportion currently participating, the proportion continuing beyond the first six months, or those who successfully complete a course. It measures access to higher education, and is suitable for comparison with measures in other countries. Key strengths of these rates, compared to simple student statistics, are that these participation rates are more inclusive and better recognise the importance of lifelong learning. The Scottish HEIPR has decreased from 56.1 % in 2011-12 to 54.7 % in 2012-13 This was largely due to a reduction in the number of Scottish-domiciled entrants, aged 16 to 30, at Scottish FECs and ruk HEIs Whilst we have observed in 2012-13 a decrease in the Scottish HEIPR from its peak in 2011-12, it does remain above the 2006-07 figure of 53.2 %. The Scottish HEIPR was first calculated for academic year 2006-07. We have seen decreases in the HEIPR across all levels of study, with the most marked decrease coming in HNC/HND-level provision. This can be attributed to a fall in HN-level participation amongst those aged 16 to 17, and also amongst those over the age of 19 The Scottish HEIPR for part-time students has fallen since 2008-09, although this is outweighed by an increased full-time HEIPR in the same time period, with a peak in 2011-12. The Scottish HEIPR is consistently higher than the English HEIPR, although trends over time are similar 1 An initial entrant is defined as any student who participates for at least six months on a course which is expected to last for at least six months, who has not participated in Higher Education previously for a period of at least six months (whether at a FEC or an HEI) 4

Scottish HEIs contribute the greatest part of the HEIPR with participation rates marginally increasing in 2012-13. HE provision by Scottish FECs has increased in recent years peaking in 2011-12 HEIPRs in the most deprived areas of Scotland have increased since the Scottish HEIPR was first calculated in 2006-07, although they remain lower than in less-deprived areas 1.2 YPR (2006 cohort to 2012 cohort) The YPR measures the number of 16 year olds in the population in a particular year who participate in HE level study before they turn 20. The YPR is a measure of access to higher education by young people up to and including age 19. It is a true cohort measure 2, and analyses the likelihood of 16 year olds participating in higher education over a four year period of time. Further information can be found within section 3.3 of this report. This is similar to the discontinued Age Participation Index (API) and represents the 16 to 19 year old participation of a birth cohort. Unlike the API, however, the YPR takes part-time study into account too and is less sensitive to any rapid changes in population size or changes in fees or unemployment as it analyses a cohort over a four year period of time. Further information can be found within section 2.1 of this report. The Scottish YPR has risen from 43.8% for the 2011 cohort to 44.3% for the most recent 2012 cohort Since it was first calculated for the 2006 cohort, the Scottish YPR has increased from 40.7% in 2006 to 44.3% in 2012 The greatest increase in rate since 2011-12 is amongst those studying at HNC/HND level. SFC has prioritised the funding of the 16 to 24 age group in Scottish FECs in recent years and this has been reflected in the increase in HN-level participation amongst that age group, particularly amongst those aged 18 to 19. Given the shift in policy mentioned in the above bullet point, Scottish FECs have re-balanced their provision towards more substantial courses which better prepare students for employment. HN-level courses are an example of this For the 2012 cohort, the male YPR is 39.5% compared to 49.3% for females There has been an increase in the rate of students studying at Scotland s colleges since this measure was first calculated for the 2006 cohort. The YPR 2 An explanation of True Cohort Participation Rates can be found in the Measurements of Participation in Scottish Higher Education Report at the following address: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/publications/2010/08/17120618/0 5

for those studying at HEIs has remained relatively constant in that period of time 6

2 Introduction 2.1 Introduction and background Following a consultation 3 in mid-2011, two new measures were produced which replaced the previously published Age Participation Index (API): the Scottish Young Participation Rate (YPR) and Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR). These measures were felt to be a better replacement for the API as: 1. The YPR does not rest on assumptions about future trends and it will also provide analysis of full-time and part-time entrants 2. The HEIPR will provide a more timely measure for a wider age range and will allow direct comparison to England This report presents these two measures as a seven year trend (where appropriate) as well as showing how trends from the YPR compare to the previously published API. Last year the HEIPR and YPR were calculated for each of the last six years, and this year s update incorporates the 2012-13 data. These initial participation rates roughly equate to the probability that a 16 year old will participate in Higher Education by the age of 30. The number of new entrants aged over 30 is around 16% of the total count of entrants for 2012-13, and this report does not include separate participation rates for entrants aged over 30. As these initial participation rates are based on entrants they do not provide a measure of how many Scottish-domiciled students or qualifiers there are within Scottish and ruk HEIs or Scottish FECs. They do, however, ensure that every individual is only counted once. 2.2 The future of this publication Following a recent review of publications, SFC found there is limited support for continuing with this publication in future. SFC intends to consult on the future of this publication, and we would welcome views from all users of this publication on what the information contained within this publication is used for, and users 3 http://www.sfc.ac.uk/participation http://www.sfc.ac.uk/web/files/statistics/participation_measures_consultation.pdf http://www.sfc.ac.uk/web/files/statistics/report_and_participation_consultation_responses_%7b22 8218939%7D.pdf 7

requirements for this information. We would also welcome views of users relating to its frequency, its timing, the possibility of including these indicators within other publications, or on the potential discontinuation of this publication. Please submit your response by e-mail or post via the contact details on the front cover. 8

3 Methodological notes 3.1 Data sources, coverage and definition of entrants This publication contains information on Scottish-domiciled students in either Further Education Colleges (FECs) or UK Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) who are attending Higher Education courses. Students at the Open University are now included they were not included in the API. These statistics are collected by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA 4 ) from HEIs and by the Scottish Funding Council (SFC 5 ) from Scottish FECs. However, information is not routinely available for Scottish-domiciled students at Further Education Colleges in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and those studying at institutions outside the UK. Hence, these students are not included in these analyses. The National Records of Scotland (NRS 6, formerly General Register Office for Scotland) provides mid-year population estimates, which are adjusted for use as denominators in the calculations of the HEIPR and YPR. The HEIPR and YPR are both based on initial entrants to Scottish and ruk HEIs and Scottish FECs, providing the student is on a course designated as SCQF 7 level 7 to 10, or listed as Higher Education and domiciled in Scotland. Postgraduate students are not included. An initial entrant is defined as any student who participates for at least six months on a course which is expected to last for at least six months, who has not participated in Higher Education previously for a period of at least six months (whether at a FEC or an HEI). To ensure only initial entrants are counted we compare the student data for the most recent year with data from previous years. For example, our HEIPR indicator for 2012-13 only includes students, aged 16 to 30, who entered Higher Education for the first time in 2012-13 and enrolled on a Higher Education course and stayed for at least six months. In order to ensure that only initial entrants are counted and only counted once, the student record data for 2012-13 was compared to the student record data for each year from 1998-99 to 2011-12 to check that none of the reported initial entrants in 2012-13 had previously been engaged in Higher 4 Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) website: http://www.hesa.ac.uk 5 Scottish Funding Council (SFC) website: http://www.sfc.ac.uk 6 National Records of Scotland (NRS) website: http://gro-scotland.gov.uk 7 Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework: http://scqf.org.uk 9

Education. Data from 1998-99 onwards was checked as this is the year that a 30 year old in 2012-13 would have been 16. Using a combination of date of birth, forename or initial, surname and gender a unique identifier is created for each reported initial entrant in the 2012-13 student data and for each student record in the data sets for the preceding years. If the unique identifier for a reported initial entrant in 2012-13 matches that in a previous year s data then we know that the student has previously been engaged in Higher Education and is not an initial entrant and their record is removed from the analysis. The algorithm used to match student records is based on those developed by the Higher Education Funding Council England (HEFCE). These algorithms employ fuzzy matching which attempts to match two or more records without requiring an exact match. Exact matches between student records cannot always be expected due to factors such as inconsistencies in spelling, missing information in one or more of the records or changes to surnames or forenames. Further information can be obtained via the contact details on the front page. It is conceivable that the same student may be recorded more than once, but with different modes of study (full-time and part-time). If a student was found to have two instances of Higher Education study in the same year, for example one at fulltime and the other at part-time, the full-time instance would be taken as the initial entry. In 2012-13, the HESA student data return contained 33 records for Scottishdomiciled entrants of indeterminate gender within the age range in question. These students are included where appropriate in HEIPR and YPR calculations, with the exception of any Gender-based calculations, as there is currently no comparable population data available. 3.2 Scottish Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR) The Scottish HEIPR is a measure of participation of new entrants 1 aged between 16 and 30. It broadly equates to the probability that a sixteen year old will participate in Higher Education by age thirty given the age specific participation rates. The statistic was initially used by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS 8 ), and former Departments, to measure progress towards the former UK Government s target to Increase participation in Higher Education towards 50% of those aged 18 8 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/departmentfor-business-innovation-skills 10

to 30. BIS continue to publish this measure and that data is presented for comparison with the Scottish HEIPR in Section 4.1 of this publication. These rates will be presented as initial participation (or net entry) rates for each age band, and an overall sum of these initial participation rates, the HEIPR, will also be presented. The initial participation rate for each age band is calculated as: Initial Participation Rate = Number of Initial Entrants Population For example, if 5,000 of 50,000 17 year olds went into HE then the initial participation rate for 17 year olds would be 10%. The initial participation rates for each age group (16 to 30) in scope of this calculation are then summed to give the HEIPR. Please see Table A below for the detailed calculation. Table A: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate Calculation Age Initial Entrants Population Initial Participation Rate 16 a 60,000 A% = 100*(a/60,000) 17 b 50,000 B% = 100*(b/50,000)................ 30 x 70,500 X% = 100*(x/70,500) 16-30 HEIPR = A% + B% + C% + + X% This measure is similar to the official measure of HE participation in England 9 mentioned above; however the English HEIPR is the sum of initial participation rates for those aged 17 to 30. We have included 16 to 30 year olds in the Scottish measure as the differences in structure in the Scottish education system mean that students aged 16 enter Higher Education in Scotland. If a different 2012-13 Scottish HEIPR is calculated as the sum of initial entry rates for 17 to 30 year olds, it is 53% 9 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/306138/13-p140- HEIPR_PUBLICATION_2011-12_2_.pdf 11

We will explore the possibility of an aged 17 to 30 Scottish HEIPR in future. 3.3 Scottish Young Participation Rate The YPR is a True Cohort Participation Rate which measures the participation of a particular age group from a particular year. The YPR measures the number of 16 year olds in the population in a particular year who participate in HE level study before they turn 20. The YPR indicator only counts students once, but the participation rate builds over a four year period. The HEIPR indicator by contrast measures the number of new entrants at HE level for those aged 16 to 30 in a single specified academic year. It is recognised that a 16 year old in one particular base year of population may not enter HE at the age of 16, but by applying this measure, we can capture their entry to HE should they do so by age 19. For instance, an individual who was 16 in 2009-10 may not enter HE in 2009-10, but they may do so in 2011-12 at the age of 18. Therefore, the YPR will measure each cohort of 16 year olds and track them through time in order to capture any entry to HE over a four year period. Table B illustrates the pattern of initial entry to HE, by academic session, for the cohort of 16 year olds in 2009-10: Table B: Young Participation Rate 2012 Academic Session of Initial Entry to Higher Education Young Age of Student entrants 16 17 18 19 16 to 19 2009-10 1,332 0 0 0 1,332 2010-11 0 9,671 0 0 9,671 2011-12 0 0 13,168 0 13,168 2012-13 0 0 0 3,882 3,882 2012 Cohort 1,332 9,671 13,168 3,882 28,053 and the YPR is calculated as follows: YPR = (Sum of young entrants in each cohort)/(base year population) For example, the YPR of the 2012 cohort is: 12

YPR 2012 = ((16 year old HE entrants in) + (17 year old HE entrants in) + (18 year old HE entrants in) + (19 year old HE entrants in)) (16 year old 2009 10 population) The resulting statistic is a True Cohort Rate of participation of 16 year olds in 2009-10, and the cohort itself is named after the last year of inclusion in the YPR. As shown in the above example, the cohort is based on those who were 16 in 2009-10. These students last possible year of inclusion in the YPR would be 2012-13 when they were 19; hence they are referred to as the 2012 cohort. 3.4 Population estimates The population estimates used in the creation of the rates are based on National Records of Scotland (NRS) population estimates. These population estimates are based on the age at 30 June. We have converted these population estimates to an academic year basis by adjusting the ages as if they were measured at 31st August of that year. This is the standard age used in the HESA student record and in English participation measures. Population estimates are derived for each of the 6,505 datazones across Scotland. Datazones are the key small-area statistical geographies in Scotland and have on average populations of between 500 and 1,000 household residents. Datazones are then aggregated to produce population estimates for the relevant geography (e.g. Scotland, Local Authority) being used. 3.5 Analysis by Local Authority In order to determine the local authority an entrant resided in prior to starting their course, postcodes of the home location of students (taken from student records) are matched to the most recent postcode file at the beginning of each academic year. Not all postcodes can be matched to records in the postcode files for reason such as incompleteness or newness of postcodes that came into effect after the compilation of the postcode file. For analysis by Local Authority, entrants are only included if their postcode provided a match to the relevant postcode file. In 2012-13, 99% of postcodes for the entrant population were successfully matched to the postcode file. 13

3.6 Entrants from the most deprived population of Scotland Areas are defined as deprived using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 10. In this report, SIMD 2009 version 2 is used for 2006-07 to 2011-12 and SIMD 2012 for the academic year 2012-13. The SIMD ranks the 6,505 datazones across Scotland. Datazones are the key small-area statistical geographies in Scotland, and have on average 500 to 1,000 household residents. The datazones are ranked 1 (most deprived datazone) to 6,505 (least deprived datazone). This ranking is based on 38 indicators across seven domains, namely: income, employment, health, housing, geographic access, crime & education, skills & training. The overall index is a weighted sum of the seven domain scores. The ranking was used to group the datazones into quintiles: the most deprived datazones, which contain approximately 20% of the mid-year population on which the SIMD is based, is the most deprived quintile and the least deprived datazones, which contain approximately 20% of the mid-year population, is the least deprived quintile. Entrants were matched to one of the deprivation quintiles using their pre-study postcode. 3.7 Level of Study An analysis by level of study is presented in this report. The levels of study are defined as follows: First Degree: First degrees, first degrees with qualified teacher status, enhanced first degrees, first degrees obtained concurrently with a diploma and intercalated degrees (where students suspend their studies to study a separate subject or to gain work experience). HNCs/HNDs: Higher National Certificate and Higher National Diploma. Other HE: Diploma of Higher Education (DipHE), Certificate of Higher Education (CertHE), professional qualification at undergraduate level, foundation courses at HE level, NVQ/SVQ levels 4 and 5, diplomas and certificates at undergraduate level and other formal HE qualifications of less than degree standard. 10 More information on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation can be found at the following web address: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/topics/statistics/simd 14

4 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR) 4.1 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Gender and Mode of Study Table C: Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR) by gender and mode of study, 2006-07 to 2012-13 Academic Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 HEIPR (male and female) % 53.2% 52.0% 54.2% 55.6% 55.6% 56.1% 54.7% Initial entrants 34,880 34,173 36,085 37,379 37,274 37,155 36,096 HEIPR (male) % 46.9% 44.7% 47.6% 49.3% 49.8% 49.8% 48.6% Initial entrants 15,775 15,059 16,214 16,958 17,075 16,831 16,289 HEIPR (female) % 59.8% 59.7% 61.2% 62.2% 61.6% 62.7% 60.9% Initial entrants 19,105 19,113 19,871 20,421 20,199 20,324 19,774 HEIPR (full-time) % 44.2% 43.5% 44.7% 46.7% 47.0% 47.8% 46.5% Initial entrants 29,067 28,522 29,715 31,310 31,383 31,482 30,557 HEIPR (part-time) % 9.0% 8.6% 9.5% 9.0% 8.6% 8.3% 8.2% Initial entrants 5,813 5,651 6,370 6,069 5,891 5,673 5,539 Gender The HEIPR at Scotland level and HEIPR for males and females have generally increased since 2006-07, with a small reduction in 2012-13. Scottish-domiciled entrants to Scottish HEIs remained relatively constant. The reduction in volume of entrants appear to be due to a reduction in Scottish-domiciled students entering ruk HEIs, which may be a result of an increase in the maximum tuition fees from 2012-13 onwards. There was also a fall in entrants to HE courses at Scottish FECs, which may be explained at least in part by colleges receiving reduced activity targets in recent years. More detail can be found within SFC s College Baseline Report 11 and College Performance Indicators 12 publications. The participation rate for females remains higher than that of males. This gender differential may be partly explained through examination of the Scottish school 11 College Baseline Report 2012-13: http://www.sfc.ac.uk/communications/statisticalpublications/2014/baselinereportforacademicyear201213.as px 12 College Performance Indicators Publication 2012-13 http://www.sfc.ac.uk/communications/statisticalpublications/2014/collegeperformanceindicators201213.asp x 15

leaver destination survey results 13. These results show that females were better qualified on leaving school and therefore more able to progress on to further study. Males were more likely to leave school into employment. Mode of Study Looking at the seven year period presented in Table C, participation rates for fulltime students have increased overall during that time, except for a slight drop in 2012-13. Part-time participation rates, meanwhile, have fallen slightly in recent years. This can partly be explained by a reduction in part-time HE provision at Scottish FECs, as focus moves towards delivery of full-time courses to the 16 to 24 age group, to improve the learner s employment prospects upon completion. There has also been a steady reduction in part-time activity at Scottish HEIs. 13 School Leaver Destination Results in Scotland http://www.scotland.gov.uk/topics/statistics/browse/school Education/Datasets/attainmentandleavers 16

4.2 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Age Table D: HEIPR Calculation, 2011-12 and 2012-13 2011-12 2012-13 Age Initial Entrants Population Initial Participation Rate Initial Entrants Population Initial Participation Rate Year-on- Year Change in HEIPR 16 1,090 60,272 1.8% 1,006 61,590 1.6% 17 9,870 62,148 15.9% 9,552 62,117 15.4% 18 13,168 65,306 20.2% 13,174 65,042 20.3% 19 4,067 68,912 5.9% 3,882 68,273 5.7% 20 1,749 71,791 2.4% 1,722 73,514 2.3% 21 1,187 71,917 1.7% 1,199 76,082 1.6% 22 945 72,934 1.3% 899 74,210 1.2% 23 911 74,894 1.2% 737 72,919 1.0% 24 748 74,671 1.0% 738 73,017 1.0% 25 692 74,528 0.9% 614 71,332 0.9% 26 658 74,932 0.9% 596 70,484 0.8% 27 587 71,337 0.8% 542 69,857 0.8% 28 564 69,529 0.8% 546 67,971 0.8% 29 463 69,106 0.7% 477 68,242 0.7% 30 456 70,270 0.6% 412 69,380 0.6% 16-30 37,155 1,052,548 56.1% 36,096 1,044,029 54.7% Source: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS). Table D presents the Scottish HEIPR for 2011-12 and 2012-13 broken down by age. The distribution of ages is similar for the two years, and indicates that a significant majority of new entrants continue to be less than 20 years of age. That trend could be explained by SFC prioritising support for the 16 to 24 group at colleges in recent years. There has been a reduction in initial entrants between the ages of 16 and 17 between 2011-12 and 2012-13. This may be explained by more pupils choosing to 17

stay on to 5 th and 6 th year at secondary school 14. We have also observed a reduction in initial entrants aged 19 and above, and this may be explained by improved employment prospects, or by more places for school leavers and other younger students meaning less places are available for older students. At Scottish HEIs, First Degree places for Scottish students are controlled by SFC and there are a finite number of funded places available each academic year. Further information can be found in SFC s Higher Education Students and Qualifiers 15 and College Baseline Report 11 publications. 4.3 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Institution Type Table E: HEIPR by institution type: 2006-07 to 2012-13 Number of Entrants HEIPR Scottish Higher Education Institutions (%) Scottish Further Education Colleges (%) Higher Education Institutions in the rest of the UK (%) 2006-07 34,880 53.2% 32.9% 18.3% 2.0% 2007-08 34,173 52.0% 32.4% 17.6% 2.0% 2008-09 36,085 54.2% 33.8% 18.4% 2.1% 2009-10 37,379 55.6% 33.7% 19.8% 2.1% 2010-11 37,274 55.6% 31.9% 21.6% 2.2% 2011-12 37,155 56.1% 32.0% 21.8% 2.3% 2012-13 36,096 54.7% 32.1% 21.0% 1.6% Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS). The bulk of initial higher education participation continues to take place at Scottish HEIs, and participation at Scottish HEIs has again increased marginally in 2012-13. 14 Scottish Government: School Attainment and Leaver Destinations 2012-13: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/topics/statistics/browse/school-education/leavedestla/follleavedestat 15 Higher Education: Students and Qualifiers at Scottish Institutions 2012-13 http://www.sfc.ac.uk/communications/statisticalpublications/2014/highereducationstudentsandqualifiersats cottishinstitutions201213.aspx 18

From the peak figure in 2011-12, there has been a small decrease in participation at Scottish FECs. This peak figure was caused by a re-balancing of curriculum to provide more HE level courses full-time courses to the 16 to 24 age group, which aim to better prepare the learner for employment upon completion of their course. The slight drop in participation at Scottish FECs in 2012-13 can be explained by the reduction in participation at HN-level, and more students choosing to stay on to 5 th and 6 th year at school, as mentioned earlier. The numbers of students studying at ruk HEIs have also fallen. The maximum tuition fee chargeable to students increased to 9,000 from 2012-13, which may have impacted on the decision of student to study at HEIs elsewhere in the rest of UK. 4.4 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Level of Study Table F: HEIPR by level of study: 2006-07 to 2012-13 Number of Entrants HEIPR First Degree HNC/HND Other HE 2006-07 34,880 53.2% 26.8% 17.0% 9.4% 2007-08 34,173 52.0% 26.7% 18.3% 7.1% 2008-09 36,085 54.2% 28.0% 19.1% 7.1% 2009-10 37,379 55.6% 28.8% 20.4% 6.4% 2010-11 37,274 55.6% 27.4% 21.9% 6.3% 2011-12 37,155 56.1% 27.8% 22.4% 5.9% 2012-13 36,096 54.7% 27.5% 21.8% 5.5% Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS) In Scotland, the majority of participation in HE is at First Degree level. We have seen a slight fall in 2012-13 in the HEIPR of those taking First Degrees, but this HEIPR has remained relatively stable since 2006-07. 2012-13 also saw a small decrease in the HEIPR at HNC and HND level, although this is from a peak figure the previous academic year. New HN entrants below and above the age range of 18 to 19 have reduced in number, and resulted in this drop in the HNC/HND HEIPR. This may be explained by a combination of the reduction in college activity targets in recent years, and by an improvement in employment prospects. There has also been a decrease of those entering Other HE level study consistent with trends since 2007-08. 19

4.5 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Deprivation Table G: HEIPR by deprivation*: 2006-07 to 2012-13 Number of Entrants** HEIPR Least Deprived Most Deprived 2006-07 34,594 52.8% 57.9% 34.9% 2007-08 33,797 51.5% 56.1% 34.7% 2008-09 35,625 53.5% 58.2% 36.3% 2009-10 37,050 55.1% 59.5% 38.6% 2010-11 36,960 55.1% 59.1% 39.7% 2011-12 36,896 55.7% 59.9% 39.1% 2012-13 35,978 54.5% 58.5% 39.0% Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS) * Based on student s pre-study location postcode. **Not all postcodes could be matched, so there are lower numbers of entrants than in other tables Participation remains higher amongst the least-deprived population of Scotland. Participation in the most deprived group remained relatively constant between 2011-12 and 2012-13, whereas a slight drop in participation in the least deprived group was observed in the same time period. SFC funds additional places at institutions which are targeted at those from areas of deprivation, and monitors the progress of institutions in widening access to HE for learners from the widest possible range of backgrounds. Further information can be found within the University and College Outcome Agreements 16. 4.6 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate by Local Authority Table H (below) shows the HEIPR by Local Authority of residence. The area with the highest HEIPR in 2012-13 is East Renfrewshire (84.9%). The area with the lowest HEIPR is Dundee City (41.2%). The Local Authority with the highest HEIPR for HEIS was Shetland (61.6%). The Local Authority with the highest HEIPR for Scottish FECs was Inverclyde (31.7%). The Local Authority with the highest HEIPR for HEIs elsewhere in the UK was the Scottish Borders (4.3%). 16 Overview of SFC Outcome Agreements for Colleges and Universities - http://www.sfc.ac.uk/funding/outcomeagreements/outcomeagreementsoverview.aspx 20

Table H: Local Authority* total HEIPR and by institution type: 2012-13 Number of Entrants TOTAL Scottish HEIs Scottish FECs Rest of UK HEIs Scotland 36,096** 54.7% 32.1% 21.0% 1.6% East Renfrewshire 1,006 84.9% 61.1% 21.2% 2.6% East Dunbartonshire 994 74.3% 44.9% 27.4% 2.0% Eilean Siar 197 67.1% 56.3% 9.7% 1.1% Argyll & Bute 654 66.8% 42.0% 21.9% 2.8% Shetland Islands 183 66.0% 61.6% 2.9% 1.5% Perth & Kinross 1,102 64.4% 53.1% 7.8% 3.6% Renfrewshire 1,298 62.5% 33.4% 28.5% 0.7% Inverclyde 609 62.4% 30.0% 31.7% 0.7% South Lanarkshire 2,328 62.4% 34.9% 26.9% 0.5% Angus 853 61.8% 29.5% 31.1% 1.2% South Ayrshire 768 60.4% 34.2% 25.5% 0.7% West Dunbartonshire 660 58.4% 27.6% 30.5% 0.3% Highland 1,512 57.9% 50.8% 5.5% 1.7% Scottish Borders 697 57.2% 37.8% 15.1% 4.3% Dumfries & Galloway 953 55.2% 35.2% 17.4% 2.5% Clackmannanshire 345 55.1% 29.4% 24.5% 1.1% Moray 625 54.7% 47.8% 4.3% 2.5% Aberdeenshire 1,645 54.4% 33.4% 18.9% 2.1% Orkney Islands 137 54.1% 48.8% 4.0% 1.3% North Lanarkshire 2,251 53.7% 27.9% 25.6% 0.2% West Lothian 1,174 53.4% 27.7% 24.9% 0.8% East Lothian 645 51.9% 30.8% 18.1% 3.0% Fife 2,368 51.9% 24.2% 26.3% 1.5% Stirling 666 51.8% 33.5% 15.8% 2.5% East Ayrshire 779 51.7% 22.2% 29.1% 0.4% Falkirk 934 50.5% 25.2% 24.7% 0.6% North Ayrshire 864 50.5% 21.0% 29.2% 0.4% Edinburgh, City of 3,059 50.2% 31.1% 15.0% 4.1% Midlothian 504 49.7% 28.3% 19.5% 1.9% Glasgow City 3,918 48.4% 24.0% 23.6% 0.8% Aberdeen City 1,310 45.9% 30.4% 13.8% 1.7% Dundee City 940 41.2% 21.3% 19.2% 0.6% Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS). 21

Note: Population figures in some Local Authorities for the age cohort in question may be inflated as they will contain students who have moved to the area to study. *Based on student s pre-study location postcode **The Scotland total includes entrants who cannot be matched to a postcode The Local Authorities with the highest HEIPR was East Renfrewshire (84.9%) whilst the Local Authorities with the lowest HEIPR was Dundee City (41.2%). Local Authorities with the highest YPRs by institution type were Shetland Islands (Scottish HEIs, 61.6%), Inverclyde (Scottish FECs, 31.7%) and Scottish Borders (Rest of UK HEIs, 4.3%). SFC will explore this further over the coming year. 4.7 Higher Education Initial Participation Rate in Scotland compared to Higher Education Initial Participation Rate in England Development of the methodology for the Scottish HEIPR was similar to England s to allow cross-country comparison. The Scottish HEIPR is consistently higher than the English HEIPR over the period 2006-07 to 2012-13, which is illustrated in Figures 1, 2 and 3 below. Table I is reproduced from published statistics for England and it is the most recently available HEIPR data at the time of going to print. 22

Table I. Higher Education Initial Participation Rate (HEIPR) for English domiciled first time participants in Higher Education Courses at UK Higher Education Institutions and English, Welsh and Scottish Further Education Colleges: 2006-07 to 2012-13 Academic Year 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 (Provisio nal) HEIPR (male and female) % 42 44 46 46 46 49 43 (42.5) (43.6) (45.6) (46.2) (46.3) (49.5) (43.0) Initial entrants (thousands) 284 294 311 322 324 341 294 HEIPR (male) % 38 39 41 41 42 45 39 (37.8) (38.9) (40.7) (41.4) (41.9) (45.0) (38.6) Initial entrants (thousands) 127 132 141 146 149 158 135 HEIPR (female) % 47 48 51 51 51 54 47 (47.2) (48.4) (50.5) (51.1) (50.8) (54.1) (47.4) Initial entrants (thousands) 156 162 171 176 175 183 159 HEIPR (full-time) % 36 37 39 40 40 44 38 (35.9) (37.4) (39.3) (40.2) (40.3) (43.6) (38.2) Initial entrants (thousands) 240 251 268 279 281 299 260 HEIPR (part-time) % 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 (6.5) (6.2) (6.2) (6.1) (6.0) (5.9) (4.7) Initial entrants (thousands) 44 42 44 43 43 42 34 Reproduced with permission from: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/participation-rates-in-higher-education- 2006-to-2013 Figures for the English HEIPR are rounded to the nearest whole number to reflect the degree of accuracy inherent in the data. As this can conceal changes or trends, figures rounded to the nearest decimal place (shown in parentheses) are also provided to inform comparisons over time. Figures for the counts of initial entrants are rounded to the nearest thousand. Rounding may result in apparent inconsistencies between totals and sums of constituent parts. These revised estimates supersede figures released in previous years as they have been updated with revised data from all sources. 23

Figure 1: HEIPR: England and Scotland 2006-07 to 2012-13 60 50 HEIPR (Overall) 40 30 20 HEIPR (overall) % England HEIPR (overall) % Scotland 10 0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Academic Year Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC), National Records of Scotland (NRS), Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (BIS) The Department for Business, Innovation & Skills note in their report that the fall in 2012-13 is a result of the unusual deferral behaviour in 2011-12 which led to an abnormally high level of participation in 2011-12 and, consequently, a lower participation level in 2012-13. UCAS trends in accepted applicants for undergraduate courses indicate that the English HEIPR figure will increase again in their 2013-14 publication 24

Figure 2: HEIPR by gender: England and Scotland 2006-07 to 2012-13 70 60 HEIPR (male/female) 50 40 30 20 HEIPR (male) % England HEIPR (male) % Scotland 10 HEIPR (female) % England HEIPR (female) % Scotland 0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Academic Year Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC), National Records of Scotland (NRS), Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (BIS) Figure 3: HEIPR by mode of study: England and Scotland 2006-07 to 2012-13 HEIPR (Mode of study) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Academic Year HEIPR (full-time) % England HEIPR (part-time) % England HEIPR (full-time) % Scotland HEIPR (part-time) % Scotland Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC), National Records of Scotland (NRS), Department for Business, Innovation & Skills (BIS) 25

As mentioned earlier, the Scottish HEIPR includes 16 to 30 year olds and the English HEIPR 17 only includes 17 to 30 year olds. However the broader Scottish age range does not account for the differences shown in the charts above. If a different 2012-13 Scottish HEIPR is calculated as the sum of initial entry rates for 17 to 30 year olds, it is 53%, compared to 49.5% for English 17 to 30 year olds. Participation rates for other countries in the UK have been produced by the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales (HEFCW) 18 and Department for Employment and Learning Northern Ireland (DELNI) 19. HEFCW s most recent publication contains Standardised Participation Rates (SPR), whilst the most recent publication from DELNI covers the Age Participation Index (API). These are not directly comparable with the measures covered in this publication. 17 Department for Business, Innovation and Skills: English HEIPR publication 2011-12 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/participation-rates-in-higher-education-2006-to-2012 18 Participation rates for Welsh students in higher education within the UK during 2009-10: http://www.hefcw.ac.uk/about_he_in_wales/statistics/participation_rates.aspx 19 Higher Education Age Participation Index for Northern Ireland 1989-90 to 2009-10 http://www.delni.gov.uk/statistical-factsheet-1-higher-ed-age-participation-index-ni-1989-2010.pdf 26

5 Young Participation Rate (YPR) 5.1 Scottish Young Participation Rate Table J: YPR: 2006 to 2012 cohort Number of Population YPR Entrants 2006 Cohort 26,489 65,036 40.7% 2007 Cohort 26,327 65,446 40.2% 2008 Cohort 25,836 63,905 40.4% 2009 Cohort 26,363 64,436 40.9% 2010 Cohort 27,892 65,976 42.3% 2011 Cohort 28,630 65,346 43.8% 2012 Cohort 28,053 63,314 44.3% Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS) The Scottish YPR shows a rising trend over the period, attributable to an increase in the number of entrants and a fall in the cohort population. 5.2 Young Participation Rate by Gender Table K: YPR by gender: 2006 to 2012 cohort Number of Entrants YPR Male Female 2006 Cohort 26,489 40.7% 36.1% 45.6% 2007 Cohort 26,327 40.2% 35.8% 45.0% 2008 Cohort 25,836 40.4% 36.2% 44.9% 2009 Cohort 26,363 40.9% 36.4% 45.6% 2010 Cohort 27,892 42.3% 38.4% 46.4% 2011 Cohort 28,630 43.8% 39.4% 48.4% 2012 Cohort 28,053 44.3% 39.5% 49.3% Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS) The YPR at Scotland level, and for males and females, has increased for each cohort represented. Like the HEIPR, the YPR is higher for females than for males. 27

5.3 Young Participation Rate by Mode of Study Table L: YPR by mode of study: 2006 to 2012 Cohort Number of Entrants YPR Full-time Part-time 2006 Cohort 26,489 40.7% 38.4% 2.4% 2007 Cohort 26,327 40.2% 37.7% 2.5% 2008 Cohort 25,836 40.4% 37.3% 3.1% 2009 Cohort 26,363 40.9% 37.7% 3.2% 2010 Cohort 27,892 42.3% 38.9% 3.4% 2011 Cohort 28,630 43.8% 40.2% 3.6% 2012 Cohort 28,053 44.3% 40.5% 3.9% Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS) In contrast to the trends shown in the HEIPR (Table C), the YPR for part-time study has increased for each birth cohort, which indicates that there has been an increase in part-time study for 16 to 19 year olds. The increase is due primarily to an increase in Scottish HEIs in part-time activity at Other HE level of study. The YPR for full-time study did briefly decline for the 2007 and 2008 cohorts, but increased for each subsequent cohort. 5.4 Young Participation Rate by Level of Study Table M: YPR by level of study: 2006 to 2012 Cohort Number of Entrants YPR First Degree HNC/HND Other HE 2006 Cohort 26,489 40.7% 25.3% 11.6% 3.8% 2007 Cohort 26,327 40.2% 24.5% 11.9% 3.8% 2008 Cohort 25,836 40.4% 24.6% 12.3% 3.6% 2009 Cohort 26,363 40.9% 24.8% 13.1% 3.0% 2010 Cohort 27,892 42.3% 25.4% 14.2% 2.6% 2011 Cohort 28,630 43.8% 25.5% 15.5% 2.9% 2012 Cohort 28,053 44.3% 25.2% 16.0% 3.2% Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS) 28

In each cohort, students taking a First Degree contribute most to the YPR. The YPR of students taking a first degree fell slightly for the 2012 cohort, having steadily increased among previous cohorts from 2007. 5.5 Young Participation Rate by Institution Type Table N: YPR by institution type: 2006 to 2012 Cohort Number of Entrants YPR Scottish Higher Education Institutions (%) Scottish Further Education Colleges (%) Higher Education Institutions in the rest of the UK (%) 2006 Cohort 26,489 40.7% 27.2% 11.8% 1.7% 2007 Cohort 26,327 40.2% 26.6% 11.9% 1.7% 2008 Cohort 25,836 40.4% 26.7% 12.0% 1.7% 2009 Cohort 26,363 40.9% 26.9% 12.4% 1.6% 2010 Cohort 27,892 42.3% 27.3% 13.4% 1.6% 2011 Cohort 28,630 43.8% 27.4% 14.6% 1.8% 2012 Cohort 28,053 44.3% 27.5% 15.1% 1.8% Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS) Scottish HEIs account for the largest component of the national YPR, which has remained at or around 27% for all the cohorts presented. The Scottish FEC component has steadily increased from 11.8% to the 2012 Cohort figure of 15.1%. The ruk component remained static at 1.8% for the 2012 cohort, having not fluctuated much for previous cohorts. 29

5.6 Young Participation Rate by Local Authority and Institution Type Table O: YPR by institution type: 2012 Cohort by Home Local Authority Number of Entrants TOTAL Scottish HEIs Scottish FECs Rest of UK HEIs Scotland 28,053* 44.3% 27.5% 15.1% 1.8% East Renfrewshire 866 67.7% 52.1% 13.7% 2.0% East Dunbartonshire 893 62.8% 41.5% 19.5% 1.8% Shetland Islands 155 49.2% 44.4% 3.8% 1.0% Aberdeenshire 1,576 48.9% 29.6% 17.3% 2.0% Angus 668 48.9% 26.6% 20.6% 1.6% Renfrewshire 1,021 48.4% 29.7% 17.7% 1.0% Edinburgh, City of 2,198 47.1% 29.1% 11.8% 6.2% Eilean Siar 150 46.9% 37.8% 8.4% 0.6% Inverclyde 450 46.9% 25.3% 20.5% 1.0% South Lanarkshire 1,835 46.1% 29.0% 16.2% 0.8% Orkney Islands 112 45.9% 41.4% 2.9% 1.6% South Ayrshire 623 45.7% 30.8% 13.8% 1.2% Perth & Kinross 846 45.4% 36.1% 6.5% 2.8% Highland 1,225 44.7% 39.2% 3.4% 2.0% Aberdeen City 996 44.5% 26.6% 15.8% 2.1% Stirling 485 43.2% 30.8% 10.4% 2.0% Argyll & Bute 491 42.6% 26.6% 12.7% 3.3% Moray 499 41.9% 37.1% 3.6% 1.3% North Lanarkshire 1,698 41.9% 23.8% 17.9% 0.3% East Lothian 539 41.8% 27.1% 11.5% 3.2% Scottish Borders 583 41.2% 28.6% 8.1% 4.5% North Ayrshire 734 41.1% 20.4% 20.2% 0.6% East Ayrshire 671 40.9% 22.3% 17.9% 0.8% Glasgow City 2,642 40.9% 20.3% 19.6% 1.0% Dumfries & Galloway 746 40.6% 26.4% 11.6% 2.7% Dundee City 666 40.4% 24.2% 15.5% 0.7% Fife 1,829 40.3% 21.0% 18.1% 1.2% Clackmannanshire 282 40.2% 25.4% 13.7% 1.1% West Lothian 910 39.7% 21.1% 17.5% 1.1% West Dunbartonshire 459 39.3% 17.1% 21.7% 0.5% Falkirk 730 38.0% 22.7% 14.7% 0.6% Midlothian 342 33.6% 21.0% 11.5% 1.1% 30

Sources: Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), Scottish Funding Council (SFC) and the National Records of Scotland (NRS). Note: The calculation of participation rates for Local Authorities relies on a process of matching postcodes contained in student records to those in postcode directories. Student records containing incomplete or invalid postcodes are excluded from this calculation. In 2012-13, 99 % of entrant records were successfully matched to postcode directories used for analysis by Local Authority. Population figures for the age cohort in question in some Local Authorities may be inflated as they will contain students who have moved to the area to study. *Not all entrants within this Scotland total could be matched to a postcode The area with the highest YPR is East Renfrewshire (67.7%). Midlothian is the lowest at 33.6%. Local Authorities with the highest YPRs by institution type were East Renfrewshire (Scottish HEIs, 52.1 %), West Dunbartonshire (Scottish FECs, 21.7%) and City of Edinburgh (Rest of UK HEIs, 6.2%). SFC will explore this further over the coming year. 31