Demographic Trends Report 211 SONOMA COUNTY
211 Demographic Report July 211 The Sonoma County Economic Development Board (EDB) is pleased to present the 211 Demographic Trends Report. This report includes demographic and workforce statistics at the local, state and national levels. The EDB would like to acknowledge the assistance of the Sonoma County Chamber of Commerce in updating this report. Over the last 2 years a demographic shift has taken place in Sonoma County. The region has become increasingly diverse due in part to the rapid growth of the population. This demographic shift is not restricted to the County; it has occurred across California and in many parts of the United States. According to the US Census, Sonoma County s population was at 12,241, making up over 24.4 percent of the county s inhabitants in 21. The California Department of Finance project the population to become the ethnic majority (51%) by 25. The 211 Demographic Trends was created to help government, non-profits, businesses, and educational institutions develop plans that will address the future challenges and opportunities with changing demographics. The EDB expects to continue to pursue projects and reports related to the community. Thank you for your continued interest in the EDB s research. As always, if you have any questions, please feelfree to contact us at (77) 565-717. Sincerely, Ben Stone Executive Director Board of Directors Pam Chanter, Chair, Joe Orlando, Vice Chair, Libby Harvey Fitzgerald, Melanie Bagby, Mark Inman, Lina Kachiu, Peter O Brien, Michael Tomasini, Marcos Surez, John Webley
Demographic Shift Sonoma County is experiencing a demographic shift that will continue to shape the composition of the region. Over the past 2 years the reported population has increased by nearly 2 percent. In 199, the County had a population of 388,222; less than 11 percent were. By 21, the population had grown to 483,897, of which 12,241, or 24.4 percent, were. The white population remains the majority with nearly 66 percent of the population. People of descent make up nearly five percent of the population with 23,359 individuals, and African Americans make up 1.6 percent of the population with 7,897 individuals. Sonoma County is projected to become more diverse in the coming decades. The population is expected to continue to grow substantially. By the year 238, forecasts predict that s will become the largest ethnic group in the County; they are expected to become the ethnic majority with 385,87 individuals making up 51 percent of the population by 25. Sonoma County Demographic Breakdown by Race, 21 24.4% 2.2% 1.6% 1.% 4.7% 66.% This major demographic shift offers opportunities and challenges for business, government, education, and community-based organizations. By understanding the unique opportunities and challenges presented by the growing population, Sonoma County will be better prepared to meet opportunities as they are presented. Native American Multirace Source: California Department of Finance (www.dof.ca.gov) Population Growth Sonoma County and the Population, 21 Projected Population Growth Sonoma County 21-25 5, 8, 483,878 4, 7, 761,177 3, 388,222 6, 5, 2, 4, 24,885 3, 5.7% 1, 4.% 1.6% 24.4% 2, 197 198 199 2 21 Population Total Population Source: 197-198 Bay Area Census, 199-2 Decennial Census, 29 American Community Survey. State of California, Department of Finance. 2 1, 21 22 23 24 25 Population Source: California Department of Finance (www.dof.ca.gov) Total Population
Demographics Sonoma County has maintained the largest population in the North Bay region. As depicted in the graph to the right, from 199 to 28 s in Sonoma County more than doubled, rising from 41,223 to 111,245 individuals. Napa County s population has grown at a rate comparable to Sonoma County, reaching 38,653 individuals in 29 from 15,941 in 199. The proportion of to non- people in Sonoma County is similar to that of the rest of the Bay Area, which in 28 was 21% of the total population. However, Sonoma County s percentage of s was significantly lower than California s, nearly 14%. Nation-wide, s comprise about 16% of the population. As a proportion of Sonoma County s population, the population has grown faster than both the state and nation from 199 to 28. While Sonoma County s population more than doubled from 199 to 28, the Bay Area population as a whole grew by 46%. Nationwide, the population increased by 71%. There are distinct age diferences between Sonoma County s and white populations. s in Sonoma County are younger on average, with 41% of s under the age of 19; simultaneously, 22.5% of the white population is under the age of 19. and white populations have a similiar porportion of their population of working age, with 54% compared to about 59% of the population. Population 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, North Bay Population by County, 199-29 199 2 29 36,769 Marin Napa Sonoma Source: 199 & 2 From Decennial Census, 29 from American Community Survey Population as Percent of Total Population, 199-29 4% 199 35% 3% 25% 15% 1% 15.6% 2 29 2.7% 41,512 23.56% 37.2% 111,245 5% % United States Bay Area Sonoma County California Source: 199 & 2 From Decennial Census, 29 from American Community Survey 2, 15, Sonoma County Age Breakdown, 29 17,551 1% 8% 6% Age Breakdown, 29 4.25% 18.37% 54.4% 59.1% -19 2-64 65+ 1, 5, 65,4 53,554 7,472 53,41 4% 22.5% 41.34% 5,59-19 2-64 65+ % Source: 29 American Community Survey (www.census.gov) Source: 29 American Community Survey (www.census.gov) 3
Demographics Sonoma County has a growing young population, many of which who will be graduating and entering Sonoma County s workforce in the next 1 years. Approximately 24, s in Sonoma County are between the ages 1-19. The median age for men and women is approximately 17 years younger than that of white men and women; this age difference affects the comparison of many social and economic indicators, including education levels achieved, income levels, and household size, among other factors. Eighty-eight percent of people in Sonoma County are of Mexican descent. The remaining 12% of the population have origins in Central and South America, the Caribbean and Spain. As displayed in the chart, the average household size is noticeably larger than the average white household size. Despite smaller families and households, the median white family income is more than $2, greater annually than that of the median family income. Number of People 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Age Breakdown for Young People, Sonoma County, 29 15,414 13,543 14,566 15,443-4 5-9 1-14 15-19 2-24 Source: 29 American Community Survey (www.census.gov) 15,461 13,49 19,599 Country of Origin, Sonoma County, 29 1.8% 1.4%.74% 11,159 23,95 8,796 One of the most important factors determining education and income levels in the United States is English language acquisition. In Sonoma County, More than 9% of people speak at least some English. Of that, 25.7% speak only English, 38.4% speak English very well, and more than 6% are fully or partially bilingual. 4.21% 3.81% 88.% English/Spanish Speaking by s, Sonoma County, 29 Mexico Other or Latino 16.4% 12.5% 6.31%.68% 25.7% Central America Puerto Rico South America Cuba or Dominican Republic Source: 199 & 2 From Decennial Census, 29 from American Community Survey General Demographic Information, Sonoma County, 29 Speak Only English Speak English Well Speak No English 38.4% Speak English Very Well Speak English Not Well Speak Other Language Median Age-All (years) 25.5 42.5 Median Age-Men (years) 26.5 4.5 Median Age-Women (years) 25. 44. Household Size (# of people) 4 2 Median Income-Family $44,69 $64,77 Median Income- Individual $46,58 $54,53 Source: 29 American Community Survey (www.census.gov) 4 Source: 29 American Community Survey (www.census.gov)
Education K-12 The highest diversity is found among the youth of Sonoma County; this is most apparent in the K-12 educational system. Enrollment figures show that more than 38% of K-12 students in Sonoma County are while 49.7% are white. Though nearly one third of enrollment in Sonoma County is, this is comparatively low to the state average, which is 51.4%. As such, youth are the largest ethic group represented in the state school system. students make up just over 25% of enrollment statewide. While s already make up over 38% of the total enrollment in Sonoma County, the percentage likely will continue to grow. Whereas in the higher grade levels white students make up a larger number of students than do students, the lower grade levels reflect the increasing population. With a large percentage of young s entering elementary school, it is important to examine their ability to successfully complete the K-12 system. Currently there is an educational gap between s and white students in reading proficiency. In 21, 27% of students in the third grade were proficient at reading. This is significantly less than the 61% of white third graders who are proficient at reading. This is most likely due to the fact that English is a second language for many students. Sonoma County Schools K-12 Breakdown by Ethnicity, 21-211 49.7% Not Reported 2.2% 2.5% 3.6% 1.23% 1.21%.8% 38.1% Native American Multiracial Source: California Department of Education, Education Demographics Office California Schools K-12 Breakdown by Ethnicity, 21-211 1.1% 51.4%.7% 3.1% 26.6% 8.52% 6.69% Pacific Islander or Filipino 1.81% Not Reported Native American Pacific Islander or Filipino Multiracial Source: California Department of Education, Education Demographics Office Sonoma County Third Grade Reading Proficiency, 21 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 51.% 56.% 61.% Sonoma County School Enrollment by Ethnicity, 29-21 2, 15, 1, 13,51 15,122 11,769 3% 1% 27.% 15.% 18.% 23 27 21 5, 2,553 2,417 Pre-school Elementary School 4,21 5,441 Middle School 7,624 High School Source: California Department of Education, Education Demographics Office 5 Source: California Department of Education, Education Demographics Office
K-12 Education Graduation rates among Sonoma County high school students continue to increase, despite higher drop-out rates than most of their non- peers. In 26, 64% of Sonoma County high school graduates were white and nearly 24.8% were. In 28, 74% of Sonoma County grade 12 students graduated, and 79% of the graduates went to college in the fall. Of those, 79% went to community colleges and 2 percent to four-year colleges. In Sonoma County, about 13% of graduates completed the necessary criteria to continue with four-year university program; this is nearly half of the 26% of graduates achieving the same standards across the state. Comparatively, 33% of white graduates in Sonoma County completed the needed criteria to enter a four-year university, which is similar to the 41% of white graduates across the state. Whereas obtaining skilled employment or earning a high income is not solely contingent upon completion of a four-year university degree, lacking a high school diploma can be a major barrier to obtaining a steady, well-paying job. In Sonoma County,, Native American, and African American students have higher dropout rates than their white and peers; 26% of students drop out between grades 9-12. Statewide, s drop out at a rate of 22%. Sonoma County s rising drop out rate presents a considerable challenge to the economic viability of the community. As s make up a growing proportion of primary and secondary school enrollment, employers will increasingly value those who obtain their high school diploma and pursue higher levels of academic achievement. Sonoma County High School Graduates Breakdown by Ethnicity, 28-29 3.8% 2.1%1.6% 1.% 24.8% American Indian 64.4% Multirace Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov) 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% Graduates with UC/CSU Required Courses, 28-29 13% 18% 19% 24% 25% California Sonoma County 26% 33% 3% 4% % American Indian Filipino Other Pacific Islander Total Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov) 5% Sonoma County Dropout Rates, 24-29 Other Sonoma County Dropout by Ethnicity, 28-29 California 9.1% Sonoma 4% 13.4% 3% 26.5% 13.9% 26.5% 31.6% 1% 24 25 26 27 28 29 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 29 (www.census.gov) Native American 6 31.7% % 1% 3% 4% Source: California Employment Development Department (www.edd.ca.gov)
College Education Recent developments in the global and local economy have resulted in an increasing demand for a workforce with advanced education. Of Sonoma County residents 25 and over, more than 4% have at least a bachelor s degree, a mark that exceeds the national average of 17%. Nine percent of s in Sonoma County hold a bachelor s degree, which increased from 7% in 25. In 29-21, 13% of Sonoma State University s student body were ; white students made up 68% of the student body. At Santa Rosa Junior College, almost 16% of the students were while about 63 percent were white. Empire College had the highest percentage of and white students,with 27% and 61%, respectively. enrollment at all three institutions has increased over time. Enrollment of s at Santa Rosa Junior College rose from 15% to 18%. Sonoma State has seen a much more gradual increase, rising from 11% to 12% at its peak in 28. Empire College has the highest percentage of enrollment at 27% in 29. Santa Rosa Junior College Enrollment by Ethnicity, 29-21 18.7% 2.6% 1.2% 1.% 3.4% 64.4% Native American Other Source: Santa Rosa Junior College (www.santarosa.edu) Sonoma State Enrollment by Ethinicity, 21-211 2% 1% 5% 4% 13% 68% Enrollment in Higher Education Institutions, Sonoma County, 24-29 25% Empire College Sonoma State Santa Rosa Native American Unknown Source: Sonoma State University Admissions and Records Empire College Enrollment by Ethnicity, 28-29 1% 3% 3% 5% 15% 27% 61% 1% 25 26 27 28 29 Unknown Native American Source: Santa Rosa Junior College, Sonoma State University, Empire College Source: Empire College 7
Housing Between 28 and 29, the median price of a home in Sonoma County dropped 15%. As the median price of homes in Sonoma County has dropped from its high in 26, housing has become more affordable for many residents. Families making the median-family income for Sonoma County are not able to afford median-priced homes here. Among the population the median household income was $49,874 in Sonoma County in 29, and the purchasing power, or the price of home they were able to afford for that level of income was $155,353. This price is considerably less than the median-home price in Sonoma County, $315,. $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, Purchasing Power in Sonoma County, Annual Median Income, 29 $155,353 $315, Thirty-two percent of adults in Sonoma County own their home, a smaller percentage than the homeownership average across California. Homeownership for Sonoma County as a whole is 64%. Homeownership for California as a whole is about 61%. Nationwide, more than 49% of adults and about 67% of the total adult population own their home. The majority of adults (66%) in Sonoma County are renters, which compares similarly to renters across the state (47%) and the nation (53%). $1, $5, $ $49,874 Median sales price Price of home available at this income Median household income Source: California Association of Realtors, Sonoma County Census, U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Bay Area Real Estate Information Services Home Ownership and Renting Sonoma County, California, Nation, 29 8% United States California 7% Sonoma 6% 5% 4% 48.4% 48.4% 56.8% 61.1% 67.2% 65.6% 47.% 51.6% 1,53 1,64 3% 32.5% 1,8 34.9 32.7% 32.8% 3,21 4,2 1% 4,35 % 4,43 Total Total Owners Renters 5,95 Source: 29 American Community Survey 8
Workforce s make up a significant proportion of Sonoma County s labor force, nearly. Of those, 7% percent are unemployed and 43% have worked full-time in the past 12 months, s seem to fare better than Sonoma County s average of 1% unemployment and 4% full-time employment. Although a larger percent of the population in Sonoma County has had full-time employment in the last 12 months, median earnings for this population are below the county and state average. Median earning for s in Sonoma County is $23,852. Comparatively, the average median earning in Sonoma County is $32,545 and in California is $31,39. Sonoma County is seeing an influx of young s entering the labor force. Eighty-two percent of s between the ages 18-24 are employed or looking for work, amounting to slightly over 15, potential and current workers. There are several opportunities for the workforce in Sonoma County. Among the fastest-growing occupations based on employment, are personal and home care aides, registered nurses, and waiters and waitresses. Food service occupations tend to have high turnover rates, which could contribute to their numerous job openings. The broad variety emphasizes the growing business diversity that is tapping into the talent pool available in Sonoma County. 5% Worked full-time in past 12 months Percent of s 4% unemployed s in the labor force 3% 1% % Source: 29 American Community Survey $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, Employment History, 29 18.7% 7.% 43.8% 64.4% Median Earning, 29 $23,852 13% $32,545 68% $31,39 $5, Population Source: 29 American Community Survey Sonoma County California Fastest-Growing Occupations in Sonoma County, 28-218 Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and 1,53 Serving Workers Home Health Aides 1,64 Medical Secretaries 1,8 2, 15, Labor Force by Age, 29 82% 63% Cooks, Including Fast Food and Restaurants Combined Food Prep and Serving Workers 3,21 4,2 1, 43% Waiters and Waitresses 4,35 5, Registered Nurses 4,43 Personal and 5,95 18-24 25-39 4-64 Home Care Aids 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: Employment Development Department Source: California Healthy Interview Survey (www.chis.ucla.edu) 9
Methodology and Sources s and Macro Drivers Methodology The 211 Demographic Trends Report is a product of the Sonoma County Economic Development Board (EDB). According to the Census Bureau, s or Latinos are those people who classify their origin (ancestry) as Mexican, Mexican American, Chicano, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Argentinean, Colombian, Costa Rican, Dominican, Ecuadoran, Guatemalan, Honduran, Nicaraguan, Peruvian, Salvadoran, from other Spanish-speaking countries of the Caribbean or Central or South America, or from Spain. The data used by the Economic Development Board is reflective of this definition. This report offers composite representations of raw data and cite respective source data sets on demographic trends occurring is Sonoma County. For more information, please see the listed sources. Interested readers are encouraged to contact data source agencies or organizations for further research or visit our website. Readers are also invited to suggest improvements for future reports by calling (77) 565-717 or emailing edb@sonoma-county.org. Sources This report includes data from various agencies. Below is a list of those agencies and companies: Bay Area Real Estate Information Services, Inc. California Association of Realtors California Department of Education California Department of Finance California Employment Development Department Empire College Moody s Analytics Santa Rosa Junior College Sonoma State University Sonoma County Economic Development Board UCLA California Health Interview Survey United States Bureau of the Census United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Acknowledgements: The 211 Demographic Trends Report was compiled, analyzed, and edited by Economic Development Board project coordinator, Loren Lopez. A special thanks to the Chamber of Commerce for its assistance in developing this report. 1
With Acknowledgment and Appreciation to Local Key Businesses Supporting Sonoma County Economic Development: Director Executive Sponsor SONOMA CALIFORNIA RE PUB LIC A G R I C U LT U R E I N D U S T R Y R E C R E A T I O N COUNTY County of Sonoma General Services, Real Estate Division County of Sonoma Board of Supervisors Sonoma County Health Services Sonoma County Transportation & Public Works