US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) January 9, 8 Dr. Edward Yardeni -97-78 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 8- djohnson@ Mali Quintana 8- aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents GDP Levels: Nominal & Real GDP & Consumer Spending GDP ex-government GDP Components High vs Low Tech Capital Spending 7 GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real 8 Real US Consumer Spending 9 Real Capital Spending Real Inventories Real Trade Real Government Contributions to GDP Growth Ratios 7 January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
.. 8..... 8. Figure. NOMINAL GDP (trillions dollars, saar, ratio scale) GDP Levels: Nominal & Real.. 8..... 8........ 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8. 9. 7.. Figure. REAL GDP (trillion 9 dollars, saar, ratio scale) 9. 7...... 9. 9. 7. 7...... 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8. Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. REAL GDP (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) 9 99 98 97 97 9 GDP & Consumer Spending Current data updated thru: 7 9 - III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 9 7 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. The short -month recovery from July 98 to July 98 is excluded. - Figure. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) Current data updated thru: 7 8 8 9 (.7) (7.) 99 (8.7) 98 (.8) 97 (.) 97 (.7) 9 (.) 8 8 9 8 8 - III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 9 7 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. GDP ex-government US REAL GDP WITH & WITHOUT GOVERNMENT SPENDING - - - - - - - -7-8 Real GDP (.) Real GDP excluding Total Government Spending (.9) 9 7 8 - - - -7-8 Figure. REAL GDP EX GOVERNMENT (percent changes from business cycle troughs*) Current data updated thru: 7 9 (7.) (.) 99 (.9) 98 (8.9) 97 (.) 97 (9.) 9 (7.) 9 - III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II 9 7 * Troughs based on National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions. - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
9 8 7 Figure 7. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (billion 9 dollars, saar) Total 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 GDP Components PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT Equipment Intellectual Property Products 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 7 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT: STRUCTURES Total Goods Total Structures 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 8 7 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Services TRADE Exports Imports 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT GOVERNMENT SPENDING 8 8 Federal State & Local 9 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure 8. High vs Low Tech Capital Spending PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (billion dollars, saar) High Tech Information Processing & Equipment/Software 9 9 9 9 98 8 Computers & Peripheral Equipment Low Tech Equipment Total* 9 9 9 9 98 8 Industrial Equipment 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: MGDPNRSOFT COMPOSE command attempted on missing data Other Information Processing Equipment -98 - :8: Transportation Equipment 9 9 9 9 98 8 7 7 7 7 Other Equipment** 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 9 9 9 9 98 8 * Industrial equipment, transportation equipment, and other equipment. ** Furniture & fixtures, agricultural machinery, construction machinery, mining & oilfield machinery, service industry machinery, electrical equipment. 7 Page 7 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure 9. GDP Growth Rates: Nominal & Real US NOMINAL GDP Total (.) - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. US REAL GDP GROWTH & % "STALL SPEED" - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Dotted line is % "stall speed." Page 8 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
7 Figure. Real US Consumer Spending PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN REAL GDP Total 7 - - - - - - Dec 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 Dec Durables Nondurables 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 Services Dec 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - - - - - - Page 9 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. Real Capital Spending PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP - 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP Equipment Structures Intellectual Property Products - - - 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
- - 8 - - - - Figure. INVENTORY INVESTMENT IN REAL GDP (billion 9 dollars, saar) 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 MANUFACTURING 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 WHOLESALE Real Inventories 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 - - 8 - - - - - RETAIL EX AUTOS - - - - 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 RETAIL AUTOS 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 - - - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure. Real Trade NET EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP (billion dollars, saar) - - - - - - - - - -7 - -7-8 -9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9-8 -9 Figure. EXPORTS & IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES IN REAL GDP Exports Imports - 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 7 8 9 7 8 9 - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Figure 7. TOTAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN REAL GDP Real Government Total (.7) - 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING Federal (.) 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING State & Local (.) - 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
Contributions to GDP Growth Figure 8. REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES: (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Durable Goods (.) - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Nondurable Goods (.7) - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Services (.8) - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
- Figure 9. Contributions to GDP Growth REAL RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) - - - - - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Nonresidential Investment (.8) - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Structures (.) - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - - Equipment & Software (.) - - 8 - -8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8-8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Change In Nonfarm Inventories (-.7) 8 - -8 Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
8 - - Figure. Contributions to GDP Growth NET EXPORT OF GOODS & SERVICES (contribution to real GDP change) Total (.) 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8-8 - Exports of Goods & Services (.8) - - - 7 - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Imports of Goods & Services (-.) 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8-7 - Federal Government Spending (.) - - - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - State & Local Government Spending (.) - 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 - Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Page / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
7 Figure. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (as a percent of nominal GDP) Ratios 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 8 Figure. REVENUES & EXPENDITURES 8 Federal Revenues (as a percent of nominal GDP) Federal Expenditures (as a percent of nominal GDP) 8 Q 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 78 8 8 8 8 88 9 9 9 9 98 8 8 Page 7 / January 9, 8 / US Economic Indicators: GDP (Nominal & Real) www.
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